ACCT Magic Numbers

[PushupMan]

Cards have almost wrapped up a spot in the 15-team ACCT field. We are currently 6th at 8-4, and the 3 teams tied for 16th (ND, Pitt, and GT) are all 2-10. We’ve already beaten ND and Pitt, but we haven’t yet played GT. Magic number to earn a top 15 finish is 1.

Our magic number for a first round bye is 4. You have to finish in the top 9 to earn a first round bye, and Stanford, Cal and Syracuse are currently tied for 10th at 5-7. With 6 conference games to go in the season, a first round bye looks very likely.

The Magic number for a double bye (top 4 finish) is 8. Miami is currently sitting in 5th at 8-3, and NC State is 4th at 9-3. Our chances here are significantly better after the wins against SMU and NC State, but the Cards will have to become road warriors to get it done. They will almost certainly need to win 3 of 4 tough conference road games down the stretch: @SMU, @Unc, @clemson, and @miami.

 

[JTMPR]

Thanks PushupMan. My mostly UK & basketball buddies that watched the NC State game the other evening would agree with you. It will probably come down to winning on the road. However, we've been beaten at home as well. No doubt, Mikel & Ryan playing that they did the other night & the steady play of McNeeley, Hadley & Fru should put us in every game. But, we need some help from Rooths, Ali, Zuo, Wooley, Rodgers & yes, Pryor's continued good play as well. Lastly, not complaining, but we have to stop these easy opponent's 2 pointers. Layups, Dunks, Easy Putbacks, etc. Make them work for it. We did a pretty job last job. But, we are going to have to rebound and contain those easy 2's on the road! Unselfish Teamwork and we will secure that Double Bye!! IMHO

 

[cocoa]

Typically, playing .500 ball on the road in the ACC play is doing very well. Going to take a great effort to win 3 out of 4 games in ACC play. Conference road games are tough in every league. Can we do it? L-Yes, but is likely? Statistically I have no data I can site. But my gut tells me, maybe about a 50% to 60% chance to win 3 out of 4 of that group of Teams IMO.

 

[JTMPR]

I agree with you that winning 3 of those 4 ACC road games will be tough and probably 50-50 for this team. But, the last few games, these guys have shown more toughness & teamwork. However, if we can keep our 3 guard offense in-gear, we are going to be a handful. I realize this, ifs & buts were candy and and nuts, etc Go Cards!

 

[PushupMan]

GT is at ND today and Pitt @ UNC …. since we already own the tiebreaker over both ND and Pitt, a win by the Irish clinches a spot in the ACCT for us.

 

[PushupMan]

Cards did clinch a spot in the ACCT on Saturday. Now tied with UNC for 6th place, our single bye magic number is still 4, double bye is still 8. HUGE game tomorrow night at SMU.

 

[JTMPR]

Yeah Push, we are tied in the loss column with NC State & NC. Although we have played Duke twice, losing twice hurts us. Another item, teams ahead of us i.e. Clemson, NC State, Miami and NC still have 3 home games left (including us) and Virginia has 4. That's a tall order for us to be in the 4 (double bye). But, if we win out and get a little help (from teams playing & losing to Duke), that will help us. Coach Kelsey has to be telling the guys - 'We are only 2 games out of 2nd. and 1 game out 3rd. And, we play both of those teams in 3rd.' As I stated previously and looking at the schedule, we win out and we will more than likely be in the Double Bye. At least, by my figuring.....

 

[PushupMan]

Yeah Push, we are tied in the loss column with NC State & NC. Although we have played Duke twice, losing twice hurts us. Another item, teams ahead of us i.e. Clemson, NC State, Miami and NC still have 3 home games left (including us) and Virginia has 4. That's a tall order for us to be in the 4 (double bye). But, if we win out and get a little help (from teams playing & losing to Duke), that will help us. Coach Kelsey has to be telling the guys - 'We are only 2 games out of 2nd. and 1 game out 3rd. And, we play both of those teams in 3rd.' As I stated previously and looking at the schedule, we win out and we will more than likely be in the Double Bye. At least, by my figuring.....

You are correct - win out and we finish no worse than tied for 3rd, and we would also own all of the tiebreakers against Clemson, Miami and NC State (the 3 teams we could be tied with for 3rd).

 

[JTMPR]

Yes sir. When you're down and have placed yourself in a situation and things begin to turnaround, we have to look at the what if's, right? We were in 8th., now actually tied for 5th w/NC State & NC. currently. We win tonight & NC State & Tarheels play tonight & 1 will lose of course. I don't believe that Miami will lose against Vir. Tech tonight, but it's possible. A couple of chances tomorrow night & certainly coming up this Saturday to move up again. So, we play them 1 at a time, maybe just maybe, this race will tighten itself. Go Cards!

 

[PushupMan]

We certainly didn’t help ourselves in the “magic number to clinch” department with the loss to SMU. But Clemson lost at Wake Forest last night, so our magic number to clinch a double bye shrunk to 7 with 5 games left to play. Winning out would put us in contention, but we’d need one loss by NC State (or 2 losses by Miami, including to us) to get us in the top 4.

Magic number to clinch the single round bye is still 4.

 

[JTMPR]

Yes, Mr. Push. We seem to be on the same page. But, it looks like this 'win out' maybe the toughest part. Yes, we can do that. However, I watched that Clemson/Wake Forest game. Those two teams were playing like it was their last. The key to the game - was defense and they played team ball. We should Saturday.

 

[PushupMan]

Cards are now 9-5, tied with UNC in 6th place. FSU and California are tied for 9th at 7-7, so that makes our single bye magic number 3.

Miami and NCSU are tied for 3rd at 10-4. Our magic number to clinch the double bye is 6, with 4 games left to play. The good news for us is that we still control our own destiny for that double bye, with three tough road games against UNC, Clemson and Miami.

Did anyone else notice that we do not play Florida State in conference this year? Very odd scheduling quirk.

 

[PushupMan]

Lost both the game to UNC and control of our own destiny with regards to the double bye last night.

Now in 7th place at 9-6, we do look good to clinch a single round bye with just 1 win in our remaining 3 games. This is because SMU (8th at 8-6), plays both Cal and FSU (tied for 9th at 7-7) here in the last two weeks. We need to finish ahead of just one of those teams to clinch the double bye.

 

[PushupMan]

FSU fell to Miami last night. The Seminoles are now 7-8 (tied for 10th with Virginia Tech). FSU’s loss reduced our single bye magic number to 2.

SMU is at Cal tonight. I can go either way on that one - a win by Cal keeps us ahead of SMU in the standings, but a win by SMU will give Cal their 8th loss in conference. This would reduce our single bye magic number to 1, because we would own the head to head tiebreaker over Cal and Virginia Tech.

I think staying on the opposite side of the bracket from Duke would be preferable, so … go Cal!

 

[PushupMan]

Cal gets the W. Now SMU and Cal are tied for 8th at 8-7, one game behind us. Cards will need to win 2 of our last 3 to be guaranteed to avoid being in the same quarterfinal bracket with Duke.

 

[PushupMan]

Our loss to Clemson now has us at 9-7, 7th in the conference. The loss at Clemson eliminated us from contention for the double bye.

Stanford whipped SMU 95-75 and earlier today lowly Pitt upset Cal 72-56 at Cal. FSU also won at GT, so all 3 of those teams are now tied for 8th right behind us at 8-8. Because FSU won, our magic number for the single bye remains at 1.

Cards host Syracuse and at Miami to close out. Cal has road games at Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. SMU hosts Miami and finishes at FSU, and FSU is at Pitt before hosting SMU.

 

[PushupMan]

With the win tonight against Syracuse, the Cards move into a 6th place tie with NC State at 10-7, and we have clinched a top 9 finish and the single round bye in the ACCT.

As mentioned in the last post, Cal, FSU and SMU are all tied for 8th with 8-8 records. All 3 teams play on Wednesday: SMU hosts Miami. FSU is at Pitt, and California is at Georgia Tech. But the clincher for us is that it’s guaranteed that the loser of the SMU at FSU game on Saturday will finish behind us.

Now let’s beat Miami on Saturday and lock down that 6 seed!

 

[PushupMan]

Typically, playing .500 ball on the road in the ACC play is doing very well. Going to take a great effort to win 3 out of 4 games in ACC play. Conference road games are tough in every league. Can we do it? L-Yes, but is likely? Statistically I have no data I can site. But my gut tells me, maybe about a 50% to 60% chance to win 3 out of 4 of that group of Teams IMO.

7-2 in ACC home games this year. 3-5 in ACC road games with 1 to go. Let’s beat the Canes!

 

[cocoa]

7-2 in ACC home games this year. 3-5 in ACC road games with 1 to go. Let’s beat the Canes!

Agree, and like the fact Miami has a tough test at SMU tonight! Not pulling for either Team, but hoping both have to expend a ton of energy to get a win. What do your metric say about who we should be pulling for in the Miami @SMU tonight Push?

 

[PushupMan]

ESPN’s predictor has SMU as a pretty solid favorite tonight (61.1%), BUT … one of SMU’s top players (BJ Edwards) is not expected to play tonight, while Miami has everyone except for one little used sub available. While I expect an SMU win, I’m not counting on it.

 

[Javamac]

Need to avoid the 8-9 game. Winner gets Duke. Ouch!

 

[JTMPR]

Absolutely Javamac! The Miami game may be the key to the postseason as well. Of course, the Clemson game hurt us. But, it would be a big pick-me-up to win Saturday. Comparing stats, rebounding is going to be the big key to the game. Miami is ranked 1st & 2nd. in both offensive & defensive rebounding in ACC stats. If we could win that war, hit a good percentage of our 3's (we've hit over 100 more than they have) and play the Defense we played last evening, we should win by 5 points down there. fyi This afternoon, I'm seeing SMU/Miami basically an even spread! Go Cards!!

 

[PushupMan]

Need to avoid the 8-9 game. Winner gets Duke. Ouch!

We can clinch at least the 7 seed tonight if Miami beats SMU and Pitt beats FSU. If that happens, then the only team behind us that can tie us in the standings would be Cal, but we own the head to head tiebreaker against Cal. Go Panthers and Canes (tonight only).

 

[JTMPR]

Miami is currently leading SMU w/app. 18 1/2 mins. left by 45 - 31. Not looking good for SMU. The Canes are currently 7 of 10 from three for 70%!
Donaldson, Reneau and Dovrat are shooters! They hit the boards boys. They already have 4 steals. We better be planning to bring our A game. This team plays tough, team ball! Later

 

[PushupMan]

Cal beats Georgia Tech 76-65
MIami beats SMU 77-69

First time watching Miami, and I completely agree. Very good team!

Let’s go Pitt!

 

[PushupMan]

FSU beat Pitt 75-74 - heckuva comeback in that second half by the Panthers, but FSU gets the W.

Clemson is alone in 5th at 11-6. Cards, NC State are tied for 6th at 10-7, with FSU and Cal tied for 8th at 9-8.

Final games this weekend:
Georgia Tech at Clemson
Stanford at NC State
Louisville at Miami
SMU at FSU
Cal at Wake Forest

Head to head: Cards beat NC State, Cal, did not play FSU.
NC State lost to UofL, beat FSU, did not play Cal.
FSU beat Cal, lost to NC State, did not play UofL.
Cal lost to UofL, FSU, did not play NC State.

In the event of a 3-way tie between NC State, UofL and Clemson, all teams are tied 1-1 head to head, so the next tiebreaker would be needed.

 

[cocoa]

FSU beat Pitt 75-74 - heckuva comeback in that second half by the Panthers, but FSU gets the W.

Clemson is alone in 5th at 11-6. Cards, NC State are tied for 6th at 10-7, with FSU and Cal tied for 8th at 9-8.

Final games this weekend:
Georgia Tech at Clemson
Stanford at NC State
Louisville at Miami
SMU at FSU
Cal at Wake Forest

Head to head: Cards beat NC State, Cal, did not play FSU.
NC State lost to UofL, beat FSU, did not play Cal.
FSU beat Cal, lost to NC State, did not play UofL.
Cal lost to UofL, FSU, did not play NC State.

In the event of a 3-way tie between NC State, UofL and Clemson, all teams are tied 1-1 head to head, so the next tiebreaker would be needed.

What is the next Tiebreaker Push?

 

[PushupMan]

What is the next Tiebreaker Push?

Per a google search (which is probably right, but no guarantees), the next tiebreaker after head-to-head is record against the top team or teams in the standings. So that would mean Duke.

We were 0-2 against Duke. Clemson was 0-1 and so was NC State. What google doesn’t say is whether 0-2 is considered worse than 0-1, or whether both are considered 0%. Some additional google searching does appear to indicate that 0-2 is considered worse than 0-1, so assuming that’s true, NC State would get the 5 seed. Clemson would be 6 and UofL 7.

This secondary tiebreaker (record against Duke) also will hurt us if we end up tied against FSU or SMU, which both also went 0-1 against the Dookies.

 

[PushupMan]

Per ESPN’s predictor, odds to win this weekend are:
Clemson 94.5% over GT.
MIami 62% over UofL.
SMU 58.9% over FSU.
NC State 82.9% over Stanford.
Wake Forest 69.1% over Cal.

Also:
Virginia 86.1% over Virginia Tech.
Notre Dame 63.7% over Boston College.
Syracuse 70.5% over Pitt.
Duke 92.5% over North Carolina.

 

[PushupMan]

With the objective of staying out of Duke’s half of the bracket (achieving the 6 or 7 seed), here are our rooting interests this weekend:

Cards win over Miami. Gets us the 6 seed with a Clemson win or an NC State loss, or 7 seed if Clemson loses and NC State wins.

If we lose to Miami, an SMU win over FSU gets us the 7 seed. As mentioned above, a 2-team tie with FSU is not good for us.

In the event of a 3 or 4 team tie with FSU and either Cal, NC State or both, we need NC State in the tiebreaker to come out ahead of FSU, since NC State beat FSU.

Here’s to hoping that we do not have to go down that “lose to Miami” scenario!

 

[PushupMan]

Georgia Tech is playing for pride only and is giving Clemson quite the batte on Clemson’s home court. Tech leads 47-45 early in the second half. We actually want Clemson to win, because that would give us the 6 seed in the ACCT with a win today over Miami.

Notre Dame, BC and PItt are all fighting for the 15th and last seed in the ACCT. Pitt gets it if they can win at Syracuse later today, but if not, the winner of Notre Dame at BC gets it. Currently, Notre Dame leads 44-41 early in the second half.

 

[PushupMan]

Little plug for YouTubeTV … I am currently watching all 4 ACC basketball games (Duke-Notre Dame women plus VT-Va, ND-BC, and GT-Clem) simultaneously in 4 channel multi-view. Very cool!

 

[PushupMan]

Four very competitive games. Virginia holds off Virginia Tech 76-72. Clemson holding on to a 76-74 lead over Georgia Tech with 16 seconds left, and BC leading ND 74-67 with 39 seconds left.

 

[PushupMan]

Clemson holds off GT 79-76, so now if UofL can get the W against Miami today we will get the 6 seed.

BC also outlasts Notre Dame, so the Irish are eliminated from the ACCT. BC now must root for Syracuse to beat Pitt today. They get the 15 seed with a Pitt loss.

 

[PushupMan]

FSU is whipping SMU 45-27 at the half, so that game is not going the way we want. But Stanford is ahead of NC State 37-34 at the half, so that would help us.

If the Cards can hold off the Canes, those scores won’t matter!

 

[PushupMan]

Pitt gave up a 12 point lead in the second half, but then came back to beat Syracuse in OT, 71-69. PItt claims the 15th seed and eliminates BC.