A few positive improvements from our FB team...

[DamnitDog]

...now it's been too easy to jump on the "we suck" bandwagon but I do see a few positive improvements:

1. I think the OL play and pass protection has improved from LA Tech to LSU (the run blocking still needs work but did much better vs LSU).
2. I think we tackle well on defense against the run in and around the line of scrimmage (still getting burned on a few big pass plays most every game).
3. We do move the ball up and down the field between the 20's, we just can't finish drives and score TDs (due to turnovers and penalties).
4. Our DL is improving with a little more rush or hurries (even when we don't get sacks) on the opposing QBs.
5. Our team as a whole does NOT quit playing and plays the whole game and shows fight when we have been down for most of the games (minus NC State when we stayed ahead).
6. Will seems to slowly be getting a little bit more comfortable in this Air Raid each and every game.

If we had a coach with Leach type offense but with Mullen type fire, we could be a good team. But Leach with no emotions and just an offensive play-caller is not good. Vice Versa, Mullen was too conservative and flinched in big games and needs to be fearless like Leach. I wish we could mix the two and have the best fit for MSU type culture.

 

[GloryDawg]

I was in the stadium so the heat effected my memory but the o line did a hell of a job. I am think no sacks and one penalty. I could be wrong but not far off. I thought LSU was suppose to have this defensive line that was going date rape our o line. It did not happen.

 

[ZombieKissinger]

I think I remember a sack right before half but it was kind of a trash possession anyway because of the clock. Line looked a lot better and great to see that they’re not holding 1-2 times a possession

 

[dawgstudent]

To point #3, the Air Raid needs space to be effective. That's why we can move the ball. But once you get inside the red zone - the space gets limited so you either need a consistent running game or the ability to score on a big play to avoid the red zone. And as of right now, we have neither.

 

[Xenomorph]

Monday positive vibes...

1. NC State.. a team we manhandled... beat Clemson. While that may not mean everything.. it certainly doesn't mean nothing.

2. The players are invested. Gone are the days of Moorehead when no 17's were given on the field. Winning is hard. You've got to want it before it happens. We look like we want it now.

3. For the second loss in a row we dominated the stat book. We are capable of doing the things it takes to win.

4. We are competitive in the trenches. All the talk about how our offensive line would rack up holding penalties didn't bear out. In fact.. I thought we won the line of scrimmage over all.

5. For the second loss in a row one bizarre play was likely the difference in the winning and losing. Actually... if any one of 4-5 plays go our way we win the game.

6. When the chips are down in the 4th quarter our offense seems to be at their best. We showed some flashes early of bringing that intensity and focus earlier in the game.

 

[kired]

Speaking of that sequence, what the hell were we doing before half? Got the ball on our 10 with about 45 seconds left and instead of taking a knee, we run a few plays. Pick up decent yardage on first play, then a first down. 3 timeouts on the board but don't use one. Instead we run another play for short yards and LSU gifts us a 15 yard penalty. Then we pretend Rogers is going to throw a 70 yard hail mary or something & get him sacked.

But I really don't get why we come out passing from our own 10 with 45 seconds left, no intentions of using a timeout. LSU had 1 timeout so could not have forced a punt there. If you're not going to just run out the clock, why not use timeouts?

 

[patdog]

We actually ran the ball 25 times for 117 yards Saturday.

 

[anon1787432961]

Good summary - I have noticed that we don't let a mistake in the game effect us. A few years ago, last year even, we had a bad play and our whole body language turned into a whole lotta I quit. Not seeing that at all this year and its definitely a big plus.

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

That was one bright spot from the game was the oline was improved. Will had all day to throw. Downside he still couldn't find the open man

 

[anon1787432961]

1 sack only. They let us run the ball and gave us the short stuff. The idea is a 20 play drive we will beat ourselves. Once inside the 20, they play a more balanced defense and we kick the field goal usually. The only caveat and silver lining here is that if you look at the 2 minute offense we actually look really good. Makes you wonder when we will go to that for 4 quarters - THAT is the air raid.

 

[MSUDC11]

Considering that last year we were struggling to get 200 yards of total offense in a chunk of our games, and not even against very good teams half the time, I think it's clear that we've made some improvements. It's just historically been a bit of a slow burn with Leach teams, but hopefully we eventually get to the same level his teams at Tech and Wazzu reached in their leagues.

I tend to think we put it all together at least once in a big game this year and pull off an upset somewhere. It could be as soon as this weekend. But I'm also prepared to see us lose some more games like the last two where we feel like we should have won but mistakes cost us.

Generally speaking I feel like our fanbase seems to be more hopeful about this eventually working out than they were a week ago so that's nice to see.

 

[MSUDOG24]

Good points and thread.
Agree the sequence before the half was as strange as I've seen. I can only describe it as running out the clock using high risk plays. Thought for sure we would just run it up the middle a few times and head to the locker room but we started passing and thought, OK Leach is going bold with 45 sec and 3TO's. Wasn't that either.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

To point #3, the Air Raid needs space to be effective. That's why we can move the ball. But once you get inside the red zone - the space gets limited so you either need a consistent running game or the ability to score on a big play to avoid the red zone. And as of right now, we have neither.

I agree that we need to do a better job of running the ball in the red zone, but we are really not that bad at scoring once we get in there. We are 8th in the SEC in TD% from inside the red zone. Certainly not great, but pretty much average to slightly below average.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2021/leader/911/team/offense/split01/category27/sort05.html

And before the “we ain’t played nobody” crowd gets here, per Sagarin we have played the toughest schedule in the SEC up to this point.

Our biggest issue has been we really haven’t been able to score from outside the red zone. Of our 14 offensive TDs this year, only three have come from outside the red zone. We need to be more explosive.

 

[patdog]

Agree about that. I've got no problem with the clock management at the end of the 1st half, but he took some unnecessary chances to be running the clock out.

 

[kired]

Get ready to have your mind blown about air raid in the red zone. I know the WSU stats are vs. Pac10 and not SEC defenses --- but still surprised me. I'm comparing to Mullen and Moorhead just because that's what we should be used to seeing.

Leach @ Washington State: 8 years - 102 games - 306 red zone TDs in 466 attempts - average 65.7% TDs scored (54% his first season) best season was 2018 @ 78%
Mullen @ MSU: 9 years - 116 games - 287 red zone TDs in 466 attempts - average 61.6% TDs scored (46% his first season) best season was 2015 @ 72%

(hell of a coincidence that they both had 466 attempts... although the Mullen numbers include the 2017 gator bowl he didn't coach)

Moorhead @ MSU: 2 years - 26 games - 62 red zone TDs in 86 attempts - average 72.1% TDs scored
Leach @ MSU: 2 years - 15 games - 29 red zone TDs in 49 attempts - average 59.2% TDs scored (55% in an all SEC game season)
We're currently at 69% thanks to 5 for 5 vs. La Tech. Will be interesting to follow this for rest of the year, see if it stays in the 60s or dips into the 50s.

Diving even deeper

Leach @ WSU: 75% of all TDs scored were from inside the red zone - average 3.0 TD per game, 4.6 attempts per game
Mullen @ MSU: 69% of all TDs scored were from inside the red zone - average 2.5 TD per game, 4.0 attempts per game
Moorhead @ MSU: 66% of all TDs scored were from inside the red zone - average 2.4 TD per game, 3.3 attempts per game
Leach @ MSU: 74% of all TDs scored were from inside the red zone - average 1.9 TD per game, 3.3 attempts per game


TLDR: Air raid at WSU scored red zone TDs at a better rate than Mullen's spread option at MSU. It also reached the red zone more times per game, and scored more of it's overall TDs from inside the red zone. I don't really make much of the Moorhead stats - did a good job of scoring in the red zone, but struggled to get there as often.

 

[patdog]

1 very big difference between the two. Let's just say, I doubt Leach approaches those stats at MSU.

 

[kired]

Yeah, I get that. Time will tell. But I've just heard so many people constantly say the air raid can't score inside the red zone. I'm sure I've said it myself. But there's not much proof to back that up other than last year - which pretty much matched Leach's first year at WSU, by far his worst there.

What surprised me the most was our 2014 squad was just average. Dak and JRob, Bear Wilson, Malcolm Johnson - we scored 39 on 61 attempts. We scored 38 on 53 attempts in 2015 with arguably the worst group of RBs Mullen ever had (and Dak taking more of a pass first approach).

 

[8dog]

Inside the 5, This offense and its total predictability and lack of plays to keep a defense off balance has killed us the last two weeks.

 

[paindonthurt_]

3. We do move the ball up and down the field between the 20's, we just can't finish drives and score TDs (due to turnovers and penalties).

We are 14 of 16 in the red zone. 3 rush TDs. 8 pass TDs. 3 field goals. Missed a field goal maybe 2.

Turnovers have hurt us but not in the red zone.

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/703/p2

 

[paindonthurt_]

You run a few plays and see if you bust one big and get across mid field in a more favorable spot. If you don't, you haven't left the other team any time. Its a pretty simple concept.

 

[paindonthurt_]

but this isn't true for us

14 of 16 in red zone
11 tds
3 field goals

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

1 very big difference between the two. Let's just say, I doubt Leach approaches those stats at MSU.

Let’s make an apples to apples comparison on red zone TD% going back to Leach’s early tenure at WSU.

Year 1
2012 WSU- 53.9 TD%
2020 MSU- 54.6 TD%

So against an all-SEC schedule, we were still just as good in the red zone as Leach was in year 1 at WSU in the Pac 12.

Year 2
2013 WSU- 62.8 TD%
2021 MSU- 68.8 TD%

Obviously to this point we have only played one SEC game, so we will see how this plays out throughout the season. But the numbers from last year and so far this year show the exact same trend for Leach here that he had at WSU.

 

[HumpDawgy]

I guess its time to break out this clip again.