136 games. Lots of opportunities for bubble teams to lose.
AAC
Temple vs UCF - Full-on root against Temple mode. I want Tulsa to get a banner and I want them off the bubble.
Cincinnati @ ECU - Not sure I'm quite ready to root against Cinci yet (they're on pace to give us a 4th top 50 win), but it's getting a little annoying to see them ahead of us in brackets. Either way, I think they'll drop one of these last 3.
OOC
Indiana State vs Bradley - ISU has lost 6 straight and the last 3 were 20+ blowouts. The good news is that Bradley is terrible. They're bizarro-Tulsa with 10 freshmen in their rotation.
Wichita State vs Illinois State - It will be fascinating to see what happens to Wichita if they lose in the MVC tournament because their traditional resume is not great. For our sake, I'd rather just see them win out and wreak havoc as a 9 seed.
Northern Arizona vs Southern Utah - UNA's won 3 games this year, but 1 of those wins was at Southern Utah. Southern Utah opponents are shooting 43.4% from 3, which is the worst I've ever seen.
South Carolina @ Mississippi State - Wish we could have those first 10 minutes back against these guys.
Ohio vs Buffalo - Still our 2nd best OOC win, we're big Ohio fans down the stretch.
Central Arkansas @ SE Louisiana - UCA's saving grace is their terrible conference. A win here would quadruple their total from last year. With 8.
ORU @ South Dakota State - Thankfully, this is ORU's last regular season game.
Oklahoma State vs West Virginia - In an alternate reality, Phil Forte returned in January, Jawun Evans never got hurt, and OSU is just outside the bubble looking in at us. Unfortunately, I don't believe the committee is allowed to consider alternate realities.
UALR vs Texas State - Putting aside the frustration of this year's meeting for a minute, UALR is legitimately good. If they're a 12 seed, along with Valpo, Monmouth, and Hawaii, I'm going to picking lots of 5-12 upsets this year.
Missouri State @ Southern Illinois - The only question remaining is whether SMS can afford the $1 million buyout to get rid of Lusk.
Bubble teams
Butler @ Georgetown - Butler is the first team out on Bracket Matrix and they're just 2-point favorites at mediocre Georgetown.
VCU @ George Washington - This one's tough. VCU's ahead on most brackets, but I'm not entirely sure why since GW had a much better non-conference (including their win over Virginia). If both could lose, that would be great. Otherwise, I'll root for a GW win since they're more vulnerable to a bad loss @Davidson.
Syracuse vs NC State - After consecutive losses, things are starting to look awfully bubbly for Syracuse. They need a win here because the next 2 (@UNC, @FSU) won't be easy.
St Bonaventure vs UMass - These guys have escaped so many bad losses by the skin of their teeth. UMass isn't good, but neither is Duquesne or Fordham or all the other teams that have played the Bonnies close.
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky - Even with 11 losses, I think Vandy controls their own destiny. Beat Kentucky or A&M and they're probably in. Lose both and their at-large bid is pretty much dead with 14 losses. They're good enough to win those games. For our sake, I hope they don't.
Florida State vs Notre Dame - On a 5-game losing streak, FSU has to win this one to have any shot.
Alabama vs Auburn - I think Alabama is the worst team in the at-large discussion. But their resume is keeping them in roughly half the brackets. Thankfully, their remaining schedule offers zero upside and 3 opportunities to pick up another bad loss.
Gonzaga @ BYU - Zags have one quality win (UConn) so they can't afford to be swept by St Mary's and BYU. They're underdogs in this one and I'm already looking forward to the last episode of the HBO special when they see Tulsa's name on the screen and not theirs.
Florida @ LSU - LSU is toast. Now it's time for them to cannibalize the rest of the SEC's bubble. Bonus: A Florida loss knocks them out of the top 50 and removes 2 quality wins from Vandy's resume and 1 from Alabama's.
St Mary's @ San Francisco - Zero quality wins. I don't see an at-large profile here. But it can't hurt to tack on a bad loss just in case.
AAC
Temple vs UCF - Full-on root against Temple mode. I want Tulsa to get a banner and I want them off the bubble.
Cincinnati @ ECU - Not sure I'm quite ready to root against Cinci yet (they're on pace to give us a 4th top 50 win), but it's getting a little annoying to see them ahead of us in brackets. Either way, I think they'll drop one of these last 3.
OOC
Indiana State vs Bradley - ISU has lost 6 straight and the last 3 were 20+ blowouts. The good news is that Bradley is terrible. They're bizarro-Tulsa with 10 freshmen in their rotation.
Wichita State vs Illinois State - It will be fascinating to see what happens to Wichita if they lose in the MVC tournament because their traditional resume is not great. For our sake, I'd rather just see them win out and wreak havoc as a 9 seed.
Northern Arizona vs Southern Utah - UNA's won 3 games this year, but 1 of those wins was at Southern Utah. Southern Utah opponents are shooting 43.4% from 3, which is the worst I've ever seen.
South Carolina @ Mississippi State - Wish we could have those first 10 minutes back against these guys.
Ohio vs Buffalo - Still our 2nd best OOC win, we're big Ohio fans down the stretch.
Central Arkansas @ SE Louisiana - UCA's saving grace is their terrible conference. A win here would quadruple their total from last year. With 8.
ORU @ South Dakota State - Thankfully, this is ORU's last regular season game.
Oklahoma State vs West Virginia - In an alternate reality, Phil Forte returned in January, Jawun Evans never got hurt, and OSU is just outside the bubble looking in at us. Unfortunately, I don't believe the committee is allowed to consider alternate realities.
UALR vs Texas State - Putting aside the frustration of this year's meeting for a minute, UALR is legitimately good. If they're a 12 seed, along with Valpo, Monmouth, and Hawaii, I'm going to picking lots of 5-12 upsets this year.
Missouri State @ Southern Illinois - The only question remaining is whether SMS can afford the $1 million buyout to get rid of Lusk.
Bubble teams
Butler @ Georgetown - Butler is the first team out on Bracket Matrix and they're just 2-point favorites at mediocre Georgetown.
VCU @ George Washington - This one's tough. VCU's ahead on most brackets, but I'm not entirely sure why since GW had a much better non-conference (including their win over Virginia). If both could lose, that would be great. Otherwise, I'll root for a GW win since they're more vulnerable to a bad loss @Davidson.
Syracuse vs NC State - After consecutive losses, things are starting to look awfully bubbly for Syracuse. They need a win here because the next 2 (@UNC, @FSU) won't be easy.
St Bonaventure vs UMass - These guys have escaped so many bad losses by the skin of their teeth. UMass isn't good, but neither is Duquesne or Fordham or all the other teams that have played the Bonnies close.
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky - Even with 11 losses, I think Vandy controls their own destiny. Beat Kentucky or A&M and they're probably in. Lose both and their at-large bid is pretty much dead with 14 losses. They're good enough to win those games. For our sake, I hope they don't.
Florida State vs Notre Dame - On a 5-game losing streak, FSU has to win this one to have any shot.
Alabama vs Auburn - I think Alabama is the worst team in the at-large discussion. But their resume is keeping them in roughly half the brackets. Thankfully, their remaining schedule offers zero upside and 3 opportunities to pick up another bad loss.
Gonzaga @ BYU - Zags have one quality win (UConn) so they can't afford to be swept by St Mary's and BYU. They're underdogs in this one and I'm already looking forward to the last episode of the HBO special when they see Tulsa's name on the screen and not theirs.
Florida @ LSU - LSU is toast. Now it's time for them to cannibalize the rest of the SEC's bubble. Bonus: A Florida loss knocks them out of the top 50 and removes 2 quality wins from Vandy's resume and 1 from Alabama's.
St Mary's @ San Francisco - Zero quality wins. I don't see an at-large profile here. But it can't hurt to tack on a bad loss just in case.
