How does the rest of the season play out?
- Thread starter patdog
- Start date
I hope that Lebby rights the ship and we win out from here, but I feel like the worst case scenario would be a 6 - 6 season with retention. I will say at the beginning of the year I felt like 6-6 would have been enough to get him one more year, based on the perceived competition. Now we know that many of the highly ranked teams we thought we were going to face are not nearly as good as we thought at the beginning of the year. That along with how we looked the last three losses makes me feel completely different about 6 - 6.
I’m going with 6-6 and Lebby being retained. While we could feasibly lose to Vandy, I still feel like we have the talent edge in spite of all the injuries.
At that point, I think Selmon and Keenum will be convinced that this season would have played out entirely differently had K1 been healthy, and I think they’re also gonna look at the fact that we don’t have the $$ to fire this staff and then bring in a bona fide coaching star. I don’t care how many times people want to keep saying it, but we don’t have the funds that we need to compete in this league
At that point, I think Selmon and Keenum will be convinced that this season would have played out entirely differently had K1 been healthy, and I think they’re also gonna look at the fact that we don’t have the $$ to fire this staff and then bring in a bona fide coaching star. I don’t care how many times people want to keep saying it, but we don’t have the funds that we need to compete in this league
I hope Lebby takes his coaching pills and we see some new wrinkles from here on out that put up points. Texas will embarrass us, but hopefully we get out of there without injuries. Lord knows we are thin everywhere but receiver.
6-6, hardest decision imaginable, so he will be retained. Injury card played, get rid of Loadholt, promote Miller, maybe end up with a new DC
I think it's 50/50 whether we go 5-7 and he gets fired or 6-6 and he keeps his job. If we make it to 6-6, despite how disappointing that will be, it's clear we were still making improvements before injuries. While it's frustrating as hell for Lebby to be doing so much on the job learning and it costing us, and I'm not sure Lebby is ever going to get where we need him to be, I don't think we need to pony up to fire a young coach until he has a season where he hasn't improved from the year before.
Now if we look like complete *** in every conference game remaining but Vandy, maybe he gets fired even at 6-6. We've been unlucky with injuries, but at year 3, while no one is going to look good when moving to their second QB and losing some key DL, we should still look like an SEC team, which I'm not sure we have so far since KT got hurt.
Now if we look like complete *** in every conference game remaining but Vandy, maybe he gets fired even at 6-6. We've been unlucky with injuries, but at year 3, while no one is going to look good when moving to their second QB and losing some key DL, we should still look like an SEC team, which I'm not sure we have so far since KT got hurt.
I think after 32 games what we've seen from Lebby is what we're going to get. He's not going to suddenly become a smarter or better coach.
The new economic realities of college football means Lebby is with us in 2027 unless we finish 4-8 (which is not out of the realm of possibility).
Lebby is not getting fired at 5-7. People need to prepare themselves for this now
I do no accept the injury excuse. This is the SEC, and injuries are going to happen. Next man up.
And while I don't know the specifics of the buyouts involved if we part ways with the entire coaching staff, including analysts, you also have to consider the cost of keeping them for another year. Lost revenue, lost donations, plus the loss of future revenue due to delaying this for another year.
From what I've read, Lebby's buyout is 75% of the two years remaining on his contract with the Bulldog Club, and is mitigated by his future earnings. That's just what I've read. We could probably get him to take a lower buyout and waive the mitigation requirement.
And, honestly, if I ran the Bulldog Club, I would argue that fifth year of his contract is unenforceable under state law. You wouldn't go to court over it, just use that argument to further reduce his lump sum buyout.
And while I don't know the specifics of the buyouts involved if we part ways with the entire coaching staff, including analysts, you also have to consider the cost of keeping them for another year. Lost revenue, lost donations, plus the loss of future revenue due to delaying this for another year.
From what I've read, Lebby's buyout is 75% of the two years remaining on his contract with the Bulldog Club, and is mitigated by his future earnings. That's just what I've read. We could probably get him to take a lower buyout and waive the mitigation requirement.
And, honestly, if I ran the Bulldog Club, I would argue that fifth year of his contract is unenforceable under state law. You wouldn't go to court over it, just use that argument to further reduce his lump sum buyout.
Selmon cannot sign him to an extension regardless of how the season ends unless it includes a minimal buyout (less than $10 million).
5-7 with the Lebby being retained is the most realistic to me. I don't know anything about AJ Swann, but hearing Robbie say today that is more of a pocket passer than a runner, that seals it. Our line doesn't make it possible for someone to not be able to run for their life.
For context, we are currently 40th in the FPI, but that doesn’t really take the KT injury into consideration.
Our remaining games by FPI rank and home/away:
#8 - AWAY
#9 - AWAY
#29 - HOME
#68 - HOME
Unranked - HOME
For anyone who thinks Vandy is a sure win, note that Minnesota has nearly the same FPI rank as them (#65). That Minnesota game likely plays out much differently if we had no KT, and that’s not even considering all the defensive injuries we’ve also had since Week 2.
The way I see it is we have absolutely no chance against Texas, OM, or Auburn, unless OM or Auburn also sustains a major injury at QB (Texas would probably get better from such an injury….).
Vandy seems like a true toss-up, I don’t expect either team to be favored by more than a FG. I give us an 85% chance of taking care of business against TT, but if we are deflated and/or even more unhealthy than now, who knows?
It really seems like a coin flip between 5-7 / 6-6 to me, but my lack of 100% confidence in us beating TT makes me lean more towards 5-7.
Our remaining games by FPI rank and home/away:
#8 - AWAY
#9 - AWAY
#29 - HOME
#68 - HOME
Unranked - HOME
For anyone who thinks Vandy is a sure win, note that Minnesota has nearly the same FPI rank as them (#65). That Minnesota game likely plays out much differently if we had no KT, and that’s not even considering all the defensive injuries we’ve also had since Week 2.
The way I see it is we have absolutely no chance against Texas, OM, or Auburn, unless OM or Auburn also sustains a major injury at QB (Texas would probably get better from such an injury….).
Vandy seems like a true toss-up, I don’t expect either team to be favored by more than a FG. I give us an 85% chance of taking care of business against TT, but if we are deflated and/or even more unhealthy than now, who knows?
It really seems like a coin flip between 5-7 / 6-6 to me, but my lack of 100% confidence in us beating TT makes me lean more towards 5-7.
Damn that's a tough one to call. No chance against Texas and the only definite win is TN Tech (ETA I guess TN Tech is a gimme 
). Auburn and Vandy are winnable, or SHOULD BE winnable, but in typical Lebby-led-second-half-of-the-season-meldown fashion they are toss-ups at best. A nice beat down against OM will get the phones ringing regardless of how the previous games go. Too tough to call for me, but I'm EXPECTING to lose to Vandy, Auburn and especially OM just for the sake of my sanity.
). Auburn and Vandy are winnable, or SHOULD BE winnable, but in typical Lebby-led-second-half-of-the-season-meldown fashion they are toss-ups at best. A nice beat down against OM will get the phones ringing regardless of how the previous games go. Too tough to call for me, but I'm EXPECTING to lose to Vandy, Auburn and especially OM just for the sake of my sanity.
I would take Dan back.... as a talent evaluator, not head coach. You have to admit he was pretty good at finding 2 and 3 star recruits that ended up being SEC caliber talent. Banks, Slay, Vick Ballard, Fitz, and Josh Robinson were all 3 star or lower guys.
But he was terrible with X's and O's. Remember Holloway up the middle 3 times?
It shouldn't. It was up to Lebby to build and develop the roster and be prepared to soften the blow of critical injuries like this....at least make us competitive and not look like clowns against LSU or dumpster fires like OU. He's had plenty of time to do that.
We retain Lebby.
Fail to upgrade oline in the transfer portal.
KT announces transfer on the last day. Business decision.
Fail to upgrade oline in the transfer portal.
KT announces transfer on the last day. Business decision.
I thought your dubmass was taking a break after doing nothing the last 8 months but pumping sunshine for the worst coach in P4.
I did take a break for a week. I have been disgusted with the way things have transpired. Last I checked it’s a free message board
Yes, that is true. If I was as wrong as your dubmass, I would consider a self-imposed permaban.
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I picked 5-7 and we keep him because that was the worst option and therefore the only realistic outcome for us as MSU fans
If he gets us to 7-5 or better he should be coach of the year. Not finding another win is definitely on the table due to our lack of linemen on both sides, difficult to protect our QB and difficult to make life hard for the opposing QB.
Oh what might have been!
Oh what might have been!
LOL. And exactly what was I wrong about … some of you on here are just absolutely ridiculous on how one person post information or what they here and yall just are on the attack. Oh and let’s see if we can get a guys who supports MSU sports to be banned. I guess i stepped on to many toes
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