HS Football Playoff Projections?
- Thread starter Capt.Sker
- Start date
D1
| 1 | Johnson-Brock | 9 | 0 | 46.0000 |
| 2 | Sandy Creek | 8 | 1 | 45.7778 |
| 3 | Ravenna | 8 | 1 | 44.7778 |
| 4 | Crofton | 8 | 1 | 44.4444 |
| 5 | Hartington-Newcastle | 8 | 1 | 44.1111 |
| 6 | Stanton | 9 | 0 | 43.3333 |
| 7 | EMF | 8 | 1 | 43.1111 |
| 8 | Sutton | 7 | 2 | 42.8889 |
| 9 | Elmwood-Murdock | 6 | 3 | 42.0000 |
| 10 | Alma | 7 | 2 | 41.5556 |
| 11 | Amherst | 6 | 3 | 41.3333 |
| 12 | Wisner-Pilger | 7 | 2 | 41.2222 |
| 13 | Centura | 7 | 2 | 41.2222 |
| 14 | Cross County | 6 | 3 | 40.6667 |
| 15 | Tri County | 7 | 2 | 40.5556 |
| 16 | Ponca | 5 | 4 | 39.7778 |
D3 winner of Blue Hill/SV will be winner gets in and travels to Lawrence Nelson. I put both points as "winning".
| Team | Win | Loss | Total Points | ||
| 1 | Lawrence Nelson | 9 | 0 | 409 | 45.444 |
| 2 | Central Valley | 8 | 1 | 406 | 45.111 |
| 3 | Archangels Catholic | 8 | 1 | 397 | 44.111 |
| 4 | Pleasanton | 8 | 1 | 393 | 43.666 |
| 5 | Wausa | 8 | 1 | 393 | 43.666 |
| 6 | Dundy County | 6 | 2 | 348 - 8 games | 43.5 |
| 7 | Twin Loup | 8 | 1 | 385 | 42.777 |
| 8 | Deshler | 7 | 2 | 385 | 42.777 |
| 9 | Wynot | 7 | 2 | 383 | 42.555 |
| 10 | Burwell | 7 | 2 | 380 | 42.222 |
| 11 | Anselmo-Merna | 7 | 2 | 380 | 42.222 |
| 12 | Brady | 8 | 1 | 379 | 42.111 |
| 13 | Guardian Angels | 7 | 2 | 377 | 41.888 |
| 14 | Cambridge | 7 | 2 | 374 | 41.555 |
| 15 | Falls City | 6 | 3 | 373 | 41.444 |
| 16 | Southern Valley | 6 | 3 | 367 | 40.777 |
| Blue Hill | 6 | 3 | 362 | 40.222 |
Working on a D2 one, but need some help/insight on picking winner/loser of northeast teams/games.
Bancroft Rosalie: vs Tri-County NE Week 8, @ Oakland-Craig Week 9
Bloomfield vs Niobrara-Verdigre Week 8
Howells-Dodge @ Laurel-Concord-Coleridge Week 9
Lyons-Decatur Northeast @ TCNE Week 9
Also need input on Wilcox-Hildreth @ South Loup Week 9
Bancroft Rosalie: vs Tri-County NE Week 8, @ Oakland-Craig Week 9
Bloomfield vs Niobrara-Verdigre Week 8
Howells-Dodge @ Laurel-Concord-Coleridge Week 9
Lyons-Decatur Northeast @ TCNE Week 9
Also need input on Wilcox-Hildreth @ South Loup Week 9
From up in that neighborhood and watched every single one of these teams thus far.
BR loses both.
Bloomfield beats N-V
LCC beats howells (50/50 though)
TCNE gets Lyons
Piggy backing. Similar thoughts. Wilcox-Hildreth will running clock South Loup.
| Seed | Team Name | Wins | Losses | Point Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shelby-Rising City* | 9 | 0 | 46.1111 |
| 2 | North Platte St. Pat's* | 9 | 0 | 44.2222 |
| 3 | LCC* | 8 | 1 | 44 - Tiebreaker over EB |
| 4 | East Butler | 8 | 1 | 44 |
| 5 | Loomis* | 9 | 0 | 43.6667 |
| 6 | Lourdes CC | 6 | 3 | 42.4444 |
| 7 | Creighton* | 7 | 2 | 42.1111 |
| 8 | Howells-Dodge | 7 | 2 | 41.8889 |
| 9 | Hemingford | 7 | 2 | 41.3333 |
| 10 | Hitchcock County | 6 | 3 | 40.8889 - Tiebreaker over Bertrand |
| 11 | Bertrand | 7 | 2 | 40.8889 |
| 12 | Neligh-Oakdale | 7 | 2 | 40.5556 |
| 13 | BDS* | 6 | 3 | 40.1111 |
| 14 | Aquinas | 5 | 4 | 39.7778 |
| 15 | Wilcox-Hildreth | 5 | 4 | 39.1111 |
| 16 | Fullerton | 5 | 4 | 38.4444 |
If HoDo were to beat LCC,
1. SRC*
2. NP St. Pat's*
3. East Butler
4. Loomis*
5. Howells-Dodge*
6. LCC - Tiebreaker over Lourdes
7. Lourdes CC
8. Creighton
9-16 remains the same
Any updates after last week's action. The Alma and East Butler losses have to change a few things.
A couple of updates to this in D3:
There are some other moving parts to consider regarding likely division moves for opponents.
If Leigh were to beat GACC - then both Leigh and GACC Qualify
If SV beats BH, they will qualify as the 16 seed (pending the likely GACC win over Leigh)
If BH beats SV, I have a points tie between BH and St. Mary's for the 16 seed at 40.55 or 365 total points. This includes St. Mary's gaining 3 points each from Ainsworth (vs Madison) and Wynot (vs Randolph) moving up divisions. This also includes BH gaining 3 points each from Kenesaw (vs Fullerton) and Cambridge (vs Axtell).
Tiebreaker is even until Tiebreaker #5 (most games played against Division 1 Opponents) in which case St. Mary's has 4 and BH has 3.
This would put St. Mary's as the 16 seed if BH beats SV.
Fullerton beats Kenesaw, Blue Hill vs Southern Valley is a toss up and GACC beats Leigh
Can someone explain how the Dundy vs Sedgwick County situation works? I understand the game was a scheduling mishap but Dundy is getting credit for a win in the power points while Sedgwick County isn’t taking a loss. If Dundy is being awarded a win, shouldn’t Sedgwick County be credited with a loss as well? That will impact their record and division of win. Just trying to understand how that works.
My understanding was it was a colorado issue out of Dundy's control. NSAA gives them a forfeit win and colorado's association must have caused the mishap and chose not to penalized the school. Strange thing.
I have an issue with NSAA giving teams 3 games above their class. My understanding was the nsaa wasn't trying to do this. Falls City Sacred Heart got 3 games above their class. Its almost changing a loss into a win. I understand difficulty of scheduling but not 3 teams and if its a problem of distance a d1 district has teams 5 hours away so there should be no talk about driving distance
You should volunteer to go create the schedules for the NSAA! I'm sure people were beating down the doors to schedule FCSH.
Maybe those 4 teams that FCSH is playing all listed on the wish list? FCSH also played 2 teams that are opt down and not eligible for the playoffs. Maybe the NSAA wanted D1 to be more fair because people complain if those schools aren't eligible and are in a district in their area of the state. Oh and those 2 D2 schools have twice the number of boys as FCSH, I imagine you complain when that happens in 11 man games.
Point is...making the schedule must be incredibly tough to do.
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Either way that is 10 extra points when it comes to power point standings and definitely helps them with the playoff situation. I would have to agree that I don't think that is right for a team to have 4 teams on their schedule that are above their class. That is wild.
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D1 vs. D3 games were not supposed to take place unless both schools requested that on their priority list. Take a look at where FCSH is on a map. Then go ahead and chart out the teams in their class. You'll notice pretty quickly that there is a big void in their area of D3 and even D2 teams.
They scheduled D1 teams and beat them. If your school wants to do the same thing, call a D1 and schedule them. I don't blame FCSH at all. Everyone knows the way the system is set up and can use it to their advantage if they so choose.
They scheduled D1 teams and beat them. If your school wants to do the same thing, call a D1 and schedule them. I don't blame FCSH at all. Everyone knows the way the system is set up and can use it to their advantage if they so choose.
I understand 1 game if it happens but 4??? You're saying that if I am a C2 school and have a bunch of C2 schools around me....BUT I want to take advantage of the point system - all I have to do is get 4 teams in higher classes that will play us and the state will automatically schedule them?
Chase County (2-6)
| Date | Opponent | Class | Record | Div | Win/Loss | Score | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 28 Aug | @ Yuma, CO | C1 | 5-3 | 2 | L | 0–30 | 35 |
| Fri 4 Sep | @ Alliance | C1 | 4-4 | 3 | L | 7–35 | 32 |
| Fri 11 Sep | Ogallala | C1 | 0-8 | 4 | W | 21–20 | 43 |
| Fri 18 Sep | Fillmore Central | C2 | 6-2 | 2 | L | 29–40 | 33 |
| Fri 25 Sep | @ Mitchell | C2 | 6-2 | 2 | L | 0–35 | 33 |
| Fri 2 Oct | @ Gothenburg | C2 | 7-1 | 1 | L | 0–48 | 36 |
| Fri 9 Oct | Bridgeport | C2 | 3-5 | 3 | W | 14–12 | 44 |
| Fri 16 Oct | @ Hershey | C2 | 5-3 | 2 | L | 14–31 | 33 |
| Fri 23 Oct | Valentine | C2 | 2-6 | 4 | - | – | - |
Bayard (3-6)
| Date | Opponent | Class | Record | Div | Win/Loss | Score | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 21 Aug | @ Sandhills Valley | D3 | 0-8 | 4 | W | 38–6 | 41 |
| Thu 27 Aug | Hemingford | D2 | 6-2 | 2 | L | 6–58 | 35 |
| Fri 4 Sep | Mullen | D3 | 3-5 | 3 | W | 22–14 | 44 |
| Fri 11 Sep | @ Gordon-Rushville | D1 | 2-6 | 4 | L | 8–14 | 30 |
| Fri 18 Sep | Kimball | D1 | 3-5 | 3 | L | 0–50 | 33 |
| Fri 25 Sep | @ Hyannis | D3 | 3-5 | 3 | L | 6–30 | 30 |
| Fri 2 Oct | Wauneta-Palisade | D3 | 3-5 | 3 | L | 0–24 | 30 |
| Thu 8 Oct | @ Sutherland | D3 | 0-8 | 4 | W | 38–14 | 41 |
| Thu 15 Oct | Dundy County Stratton | D3 | 5-2 | 2 | L | 6–52 | 33 |
Falls City Sacred Heart (5-3)
| Date | Opponent | Class | Record | Div | Win/Loss | Score | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 28 Aug | @ Freeman | D1 | 3-5 | 3 | W | 38–35 | 47 |
| Fri 4 Sep | Omaha Christian | D2 | 2-6 | 4 | W | 58–6 | 43 |
| Fri 11 Sep | Johnson County Central | D1 | 1-7 | 4 | W | 38–8 | 44 |
| Fri 18 Sep | @ Lourdes Central Catholic | D2 | 6-2 | 2 | L | 28–36 | 35 |
| Fri 25 Sep | Osceola | D3 | 4-4 | 3 | W | 12–8 | 44 |
| Fri 2 Oct | @ Weeping Water | D3 | 3-5 | 3 | W | 30–16 | 44 |
| Fri 9 Oct | Lawrence-Nelson | D3 | 8-0 | 1 | L | 0–72 | 36 |
| Fri 16 Oct | @ Deshler | D3 | 6-2 | 2 | L | 20–66 | 33 |
| Thu 22 Oct | Southern | D3 | 0-8 | 4 | - | – | - |
Omaha Nation (0-8)
| Date | Opponent | Class | Record | Div | Win/Loss | Score | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 28 Aug | @ Bancroft-Rosalie | D2 | 1-7 | 4 | L | 12–30 | 29 |
| Fri 4 Sep | Lyons-Decatur Northeast | D2 | 2-6 | 4 | L | 16–56 | 29 |
| Thu 10 Sep | @ Randolph | D3 | 3-5 | 3 | L | 8–56 | 30 |
| Fri 18 Sep | Omaha Christian | D2 | 2-6 | 4 | L | 22–58 | 29 |
| Fri 25 Sep | @ Winside | D3 | 2-6 | 4 | L | 0–40 | 27 |
| Fri 2 Oct | @ Archangels Catholic | D3 | 7-1 | 1 | L | 0–54 | 36 |
| Fri 9 Oct | Leigh | D3 | 6-2 | 2 | L | 0–54 | 33 |
| Fri 16 Oct | @ Guardian Angels Central Catholic | D3 | 6-2 | 2 | L | 8–84 | 33 |
| Thu 22 Oct | Clarkson | D3 | 4-4 | 3 | - | – | - |
Southern (0-8)
| Date | Opponent | Class | Record | Div | Win/Loss | Score | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 28 Aug | Blue Hill | D3 | 5-3 | 2 | L | 22–56 | 33 |
| Fri 4 Sep | Falls City | D1 | 2-6 | 4 | L | 8–38 | 30 |
| Fri 11 Sep | @ Centennial | D1 | 4-4 | 3 | L | 19–52 | 33 |
| Fri 18 Sep | Tri County | D1 | 6-2 | 2 | L | 32–44 | 36 |
| Fri 25 Sep | Weeping Water | D3 | 3-5 | 3 | L | 40–68 | 30 |
| Fri 2 Oct | @ Lawrence-Nelson | D3 | 8-0 | 1 | L | 28–70 | 36 |
| Fri 9 Oct | @ Deshler | D3 | 6-2 | 2 | L | 6–66 | 33 |
| Fri 16 Oct | Osceola | D3 | 4-4 | 3 | L | 0–66 | 30 |
| Thu 22 Oct | @ Falls City Sacred Heart | D3 | 5-3 | 2 | - | – | - |
Sometimes the geographical area you live in just doesn't have the available opponents necessary to play everyone at your class level, so you have to play outside of it. All of the teams above are in isolated parts of Nebraska in relation to their class. It's not unique to one team..........this happens far more often than you realize, but now with 3 classes of 8 man, it may happen even more. We've spread the teams out farther with a third class.
you can and could have always done what you are saying, if you are smart you schedule them Plus they are looking at being the 15 or 16 seed who do think they are beating out that deserves in ?
You don’t understand for some reason how the schedule works. If your example a C-2 team with a bunch of C-2 teams around them. The school can request anyone they want but the state is giving them a C-2 schedule .
I think it should be maxed at 2 opponents above class in football. Can respect geography, but at some point it’s an advantage, whether intentional or not. Especially when teams on the east side try to schedule above class but are denied because of closer geography to schools within class.
Looking at Sacred hearts schedule the only upper class I can see that’s question is ( Macy ) Omaha nation. Thats177 miles. The NSAA should have to answer to that?
That's my point - that C2 team doesn't get the same advantage for the point system. I guess I do understand how it works.
The issue is there is not a ton of D3 teams in the immediate area for Sacred heart to play . If you look at the Eight man class they all play out of class multiple times
No idea - don't pay that much attention to D3....I guess my point is that they have a big advantage point wise than most D3 teams which I don't think is right. Schools voted for this, so they may have to travel more...just the way it is.
Btw - I highly doubt the state lets a C2 school play 4 B/C1 schools for their non-district games if they have other C2 schools around them. Just my opinion.
Look at the list of D3 teams. You tell me who sacred heart should play 9 games all in that class without driving 100s of miles one way ?
This is what the schools get for voting on this....I get they may have to play 1 or 2 against higher division teams but all 4 non-district games being against higher divisions is not right. Just my opinion. There are teams in the east/northeast that would like that same advantage.
I understand what you’re saying but with the d3 it’s just not feasible because of the miles they would have to drive.
Correct schools voted for this, but the schools also understand that teams will play teams above one or two classes in some cases. They don't vote for it with the idea that schools will only play schools in their class. Those teams in the east and northeast can get schools in other classes to put each other down on their wish list as well and see what happens.
The NSAA is going to do everything possible to keep schools in their class all 9 games because of the power points difference . But with some teams it’s just not possible because of where they are located.
"In some cases" is what you are saying and I agree with this (1 or 2 games). But to have all 4 non-district games be against higher division teams is not right. That's an automatic 10 point advantage in this case with FCSH. There's no chance a C2 school in east/northeast that would get play 4 non-district games against higher divisions even if they all put each other down.
And I'm telling you that the schools in the east and northeast aren't getting the larger school games they put down because there are closer in class opponents and it helps the NSAA scheduling matrix. On the flip side, it helps the scheduling for the NSAA when looking at geography for the western schools and its just easier to keep scheduling them together. Just because you're putting each other down on priority lists doesn't mean that the NSAA will schedule them together. The only way the schools could control this is to try and pass something that would cap how many teams you can play games you can play out of class or how far up/down you play against. If I'm a solid C1 or C2 school in the east, I'd reach out to schools like Benson, Omaha NW, and Buena Vista to see if they could be at the top of each others priority list, but I bet the NSAA doesn't schedule those games. On the other hand, I bet if Mitchell and Gering put each other down, you'd see that matchup get scheduled.
And Sacred heart is not getting in. You’re right in C-2 that’s not happening because they have enough schools in their general area in the class to play. Look at FCSH schedule they still drive 100 miles to Omaha to Play a game out of class. They didn’t want to make sacred heart drive 150 -200 miles to play a couple more D-3 games. It’s just the way it is for some schools.
SH is going to be 15 it’s not like the stole a spot from a good team that going to sit at home. They get to order playoff shirts and practice for a few days before getting drilled. Big whoopie!
So, that makes it right? There might be a better team out there than FCSH that could give a higher seeded team a game - who knows. But what if that helped them get into the top 8 and stole a host spot from someone? They are currently at 40.75 and if they didn't get those extra points would be at 39.5....that doesn't seem like a lot but with only 16 teams getting into the playoffs - that's 3 spots ahead of where they should/could be.
every team has the same opportunity to schedule up, dont get mad because they thought ahead
That is not true! Every team may get 1 or 2 teams that are in a higher division but to have 4 is simply not right. You're smarter than knowing that every team could schedule any team that is in a higher division than them - don't be so naive.
If you choose 4 and get them to choose the same number as you, good chance you will get it, now your right not every time but you will 6 out 10 times get all four, if you are also west or southeast corner and more remote you have a even higher chance of getting all four You are right its not perfect but it is what you get with trying to split a small state with only 1.9 million people into 8 classes of football, you will have remote ares that just do not have teams close to them at all in their class The problem is to many classes or you just have to okay with this happening from time to time and know, their is no perfect way to split 8 classes of football up in a state the size of nebraska
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