IOWA will make the College Football Playoff according to Todd McShay

WeBeHerkin said:

We rocket to the top 10 if we do

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Still kinda crazy to think that with the BCS, only 2 teams got to play for a National Championship. Now it's 12. Might soon be 24.

Imagine if IOWA had to play 9 games in the SEC and not the B1G

"Stanford Steve" of ESPN said today that if Iowa manages to go 10-2 that they are a playoff team.

QChawks said:

I’m sure a lot of teams are really scared of this Iowa team

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We lost, probably, to the best team in the country.

And you can't lose the turnover battle 2-0 and expect to beat Ohio State.

Congrats to them; hopefully we see them again in the @EvilMonkeyInTheCloset NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME!!!

Sports Illustrated still considers IOWA a CFP team.

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Week 5 Bowl Projections:​

Two ESPN writers' projections:

Saturday, Dec 26:
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Clemson vs. Iowa
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC)
2:30 pm CT kickoff
TV: ABC

Saturday, Jan 2:
Citrus Bowl
Iowa vs. Tennessee
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, FL)
11 am CT kickoff
TV: ABC

College Football Playoff 2026: Bubble Watch after Week 6​

The SEC no longer owns half the bracket, as it is down to four teams that would be in today: Georgia, Texas, Alabama and Ole Miss.

The Big Ten is a big question mark beyond Ohio State and Indiana, with both Los Angeles schools still in the mix and eight teams with at most one loss.

Below you'll find each of the Power 4 conferences broken up into categories. The dreaded "Out" wishes teams with at least three losses better luck next year. In some cases, it's simply "Too early to tell," so we've also aptly named a category that includes each team that can still technically win its Power 4 conference. You'll also find the true contenders in "Would be in" for teams in this week's projection, and "Wrong side of the bubble" is for those just outside of the bracket.

This will be your weekly snapshot of where each Power 4 conference stands, along with the top Group of 6 contenders and Notre Dame. Reminder: This will change week to week as each team builds -- or busts -- its résumé.

Big Ten​

Spotlight: Ohio State. The Buckeyes' No. 5 spot in this week's projected top 12 is a direct result of Texas losing to Oklahoma -- after the Longhorns beat Ohio State. Yes, anyone watching the film can see that Texas is flawed, but the Longhorns also have found a way to earn what remains one of the best résumés in the country. Because Ohio State and Texas are still one-loss teams -- and because Texas has two wins against top-25 teams, including one on the road against Tennessee -- the committee would likely honor the Week 2 head-to-head result. Texas is No. 7 in ESPN's strength of record, while Ohio State is No. 15. The Longhorns also have played the No. 4-ranked schedule to date, while Ohio State has faced the No. 29 schedule. Those schedule metrics would have some committee members further honoring that head-to-head result, along with the fact that Ohio State and Texas are both in the top eight in total efficiency. If Ohio State wins at Indiana on Saturday, though, and adds a second ranked win to its résumé, that opens the door for the Buckeyes to leap the Longhorns.


The enigma: UCLA. The Bruins are No. 3 in ESPN's strength of record, giving the average top-25 team just a 24.8% chance to achieve the same 5-0 record against the same opponents. UCLA has three road wins, including against Cal, a cross-country 54-3 drubbing of Maryland and versus Oregon on Saturday. The problem is, there are a lot of "yeah buts" to the Bruins' résumé. Maryland coach Mike Locksley is on one of the hottest seats in the country. Oregon was down to its third-string quarterback. And the status of UCLA starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava (lower leg injury) is uncertain. For now, based on what the Bruins have accomplished to date, they've earned a spot in the playoff conversation. And it's not far-fetched to think they might keep it a few weeks as they head into a stretch of three straight home games -- and the FPI projects UCLA to win each one.

If the playoff were today​

Would be in: Ohio State, Indiana, UCLA

Wrong side of the bubble: None

Too early to tell: Wisconsin, USC, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, Oregon, Michigan, Minnesota

Out: Michigan State, Maryland, Washington, Penn State, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue

Bracket​

Based on the rankings in this week's projection, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Notre Dame
No. 4 Texas

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 18 and 19

No. 12 Boise State (highest Group of 6) at No. 5 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Alabama
No. 10 UCLA at No. 7 Indiana
No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 8 BYU (Big 12 champ)

Quarterfinal games

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.

No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Ohio State winner vs. No. 4 Texas
No. 11 Utah/No. 6 Alabama winner vs. No. 3 Notre Dame
No. 10 UCLA/No. 7 Indiana winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Ole Miss/No. 8 BYU winner vs. No. 1 Georgia

2026-27 Week 6 CFP & Bowl Projections​

Wednesday, Dec. 30, 2026

Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2:00 pm CT, ESPN
Bonagura: IOWA vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Kentucky


Saturday, Jan. 2, 2027

Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
11:00 am CT, ABC
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: IOWA vs. Tennessee

2026-27 Week 6 College Football Playoff, bowl projections

Following big wins and multiple upsets in Week 6, here are our postseason projections.

www.espn.com

OnlyTheObscure said:

10-2 with no wins over teams ranked at the end of the year is not a lock for the playoff. It would depend a lot on who else is 10-2 in Big Ten and SEC.

just go 11-1 and take out the doubt.

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hopefully 11-1 would overcome the SEC bias

Looking at the CFP odds: The case for Iowa, Kentucky, UCLA and USC​

The Top 25 has some unexpected names near the middle of the season. No, 12 UCLA is unbeaten, No. 15 Kentucky and No. 17 Iowa have one loss, and 6-1 USC has played its way back into the playoff conversation.

Each arrived here differently so I asked the same four questions: What is driving the start, is it repeatable, what could derail it, and how manageable is the remaining schedule? Here's a look at the four teams.

Looking at the undefeated or one-loss teams in the Top 25​

#17 Iowa (5-1 record)​

Iowa is succeeding because it finally has an offensive identity beyond "don't ruin the defense's work." The offensive line is strong, the run game led by Kamari Moulton, is averaging six yards per carry, tied for the most in the Big Ten. Against Washington, the Hawkeyes produced 263 rushing yards and 41 points without needing turnovers or defensive scores. That's repeatable.

The run defense and tackling travel, while opponents have scored touchdowns on eight of 17 red-zone trips. More importantly, Iowa has forced only five takeaways, which tells me the 5-1 record is not built on turnover luck.

The problem is that Iowa is still dependent on game script. We saw that play out against Ohio State. Once the Buckeyes eliminated the run, there was no offensive alternative, managing just 39 rushing yards. The Michigan 20-19 win was also less convincing, outgained 429 to 285 yards, rushing for 58 yards.

The schedule still creates a path to 11 wins but it won't be a strong resume. If Iowa finishes 11-1, with its only loss to Ohio State, that probably gets them into the playoff. At 10-2, the case becomes much weaker because a Michigan win was less of a resume builder with only Northwestern currently ranked.

#15 Kentucky (5-1 record)​

Of this group, Kentucky is the team where I'd say the car is better than what's under the hood. It's clean and has a nice shine to it. There's some cracks underneath the paint. Kentucky has forced 12 takeaways. Win the turnover battle, you win games.

That's also the problem. Kentucky is a one-dimension run-heavy offense converting 27% of its third downs. Defensively, there's no dependable foundation, grading outside of the top 80 against the run, in tackling, and in coverage, with a pretty average pass rush, with opponents scoring easily once inside the red zone, 18 of 25 touchdowns allowed, leaving its defense generally needing a turnover to end possessions.

The South Carolina and LSU wins both came by ... one point ... in overtime ... in back-to-back weeks. And they were that close despite forcing two turnovers in each game. Against Alabama, when the takeaways weren't there, Kentucky was beaten 45-17, generating 209 yards.

The rest of the schedule sets up for regression, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Missouri are all on the road, with Vanderbilt, Florida and Louisville at home. Kentucky can build a legit resume. Pop the hood and it looks like the least sustainable playoff candidate. The rushing offense is real, the overall formula is too dependent on ball security, takeaways and surviving close games.

#12 UCLA (5-0 record)​

UCLA is interesting with strengths attached to takeaways. The Bruins average 253 rushing yards per game and 6.1 yards per carry, with a top 15 defense. They control possession, then make opponents throw and attack the ball, making its 19 takeaways earned. The rate is unsustainable, especially with an ordinary pass rush.

The Oregon win caught both sides. UCLA held Oregon to 272 yards and controlled time of possession. Oregon also committed seven turnovers, yet the Bruins won just 17-15. The offense couldn't turn those opportunities into separation.

That's the flaw. Nico Iamaleava has only four touchdown passes against four interceptions. But now he's expected to miss the remainder of the season, which adds a wrinkle to its future prospects.

If QB Ty Dieffenbach can settle in quickly, the playoff path is there, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Nevada, Minnesota and Illinois are all manageable before UCLA closes at Michigan and against USC. I see the Bruins with more sustainability than Kentucky and probably a stronger resume than Iowa. But the defense is carrying the team right now. Being dangerously one-dimensional is what needs correction.

#19 USC (6-1 record)​

The Trojans' offense is the most repeatable strength. Jayden Maiava is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt, with 18 touchdowns and three interceptions. They have a good offensive line giving protection, letting the passing game take off. Between Kayden Dixon-Wyatt, Trent Mosley and Zacharyus Williams, the receiving room is strong with depth.

The problem is obvious, the (lack of) defense, struggling in coverage, giving up 239 passing yards per game (92nd), and 8.4 yards per pass (112th). USC has a strong pass rush. If they don't get home, the secondary is exposed. Rutgers produced 460 yards, Oregon 504, and opponents have scored on 17 of 26 red zone trips. The flaws are there.

USC can throw its way back into games. That becomes a difficult weekly lifestyle with the remaining schedule. The 41-27 loss to Oregon showed what happens when the defense faced another solid offense and the Trojans failed to score. USC probably needs to finish 4-1, meaning it would have to beat two of Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA. If it does, the resume is unquestionable. A 9-3 finish leaves them out.

squeezebox_1 said:

Sign me up, home game in December against Texas...yes please

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Do we have to go 11-1?

Palmerhawk said:

SEC commish Sankey today indicated that the last issues the SEC had with the 24 team fb playoff have been addressed and they are ready to discuss tv rights.

His only request was that all power 4 leagues agree to a 9 +1 schedule...ie.9 league games plus one non- conference power 4 game.

Not a problem at Iowa ...we have played 10 power 4 teams for years.

This will be in place for next year.
Hawks should be well positioned to make it next season.

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IIRC, this year was supposed to be a 2008 type of year and next year was supposed to be a 2009 type of year.

Crazy that the program is this far ahead, if that is what was thought....

IF there were a 24 team playoff this season, here would be the bracket based on the current AP rankings.

Click on image for a LARGER view.

Some interesting scores and injuries today.

tOSU's starting QB's arm is in a sling. Glad Iowa has 2 capable QBs.

and just like that Texas is in danger of not making the CFP

Right now Iowa is on the outside looking in.

4 SEC teams
3 B1G teams
3 Big 12 teams
1 ACC team
1 Independent (ND)


1. Miami (ACC Champ)
2. Ohio State (B1G Champ)
3. BYU (Big 12 Champ)
4. Notre Dame
5. Indiana
6. Georgia
7. Ole Miss
8. UCLA
9. Kentucky
10. Tennessee
11. Utah
12. Texas Tech