Paxton has already won statewide election and Talenfreakco is just weird.
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- Thread starter L4Dawg
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The outcome is almost always in the bag almost everywhere. Districts are gerrymandered to ensure one party of the other wins & both parties punish anyone who runs against the incumbent in the primary.
I think Buttigieg is gonna be on the trail in Mississippi also. Benny is pretty much a lock so I figure Kamala and Pete are here to stump for Colom more than Benny.
I have spoken to a few people I know out in Texas. They are sitting this one out to give the finger to Trump and republicans. Mississippi is not going blue, but it is a great spot to draw money away from close races. Honestly, I am done voting for both parties. They are basically the same, nothing gets better.
I was told by a few people Phil Bryant appointed Smith because he felt he could easily replace her when he was ready to run. Any truth? Why did he never run?
I don't know if it's possible to describe how bad a candidate Paxton is. I'm sure people are sitting out but Cornyn or a middle of the road republican candidate wins Texas easy especially against a candidate like Talarico. The fact that it's close or he's losing underscores how bad a candidate he is.
Agreed, Paxton is one of the worst candidates I have seen and that is saying a lot.
Yeah, he seems like a terrible person. Like just a really 17ing shítty person in multiple ways.
Yet he was elected, so people like that he is awful or don't care.
And he won this nomination, so people like that he is awful or don't care.
It has to be pretty confidence shaking to be someone that lost to Paxton. Knowing voters would rather have Paxton that you?...oof, that's rough.
Trump and his group threw tons of money in that race to oust Cornyn because he wouldn’t bend the knee and kiss the ring so he had to go. Cornyn would have smoked Talarico.
Yeah, it's a really interesting situation from an analytical perspecive.
And really sad situation from representative and political perspectives.
I have 0 sympathy for Cornyn. Him having his decades long career end by receiving half as many votes as Paxton is hilarious.
But it's crazy to see people actually vote for Paxton. People really did go to a voting booth and decide they want Paxton.
Wild.
The money being spent on this crap is even more insane than NIL.
It's unhinged. And its disgusting to see how the outside groups can say or claim basically anything about a random politician. Without consequence.
All elections need to be capped at 2 months long from the file date.
And Citizens United needs to be stopped through legislation.
Yep. Egos make you do stupid things sometimes and the damage can cost a lot of money. It's no different in the real world just on a much smaller scale.
Trust me people aren't voting for Paxton in the general because it's Paxton. Also, if you think people skip the midterms they sure as heck skip the midterm primaries so you get what you get.
I've yet to meet anybody excited to vote for Paxton most say they are voting against insanity at least what they perceive is insanity.
Yep, Texas has some real winners in this cycle.
Your last paragraph is my point with Talarico. If he loses to Paxton in a mid-term given the current environment it will show just how red Texas' foundation is.
If Dems just ran a solid moderate center left candidate they steal this seat this year. Beto is probably somewhere kicking himself for missing this opportunity.
The senate will not flip to the democrats. I expect that worse case scenario, it stays 53-47, but it's likely that R's actually pick up a senate seat.
There's a better chance of the sun going into Red Giant phase and killing us all tomorrow than there is of Talarico beating Paxton in a statewide race. Paxton is a terrible candidate, but he's won multiple statewide elections and Talarico is unelectable. If you blame republicans for running a terrible candidate without acknowledging that the dems have put forward an even worse one, you kinda show your bias.
House is another story. It will come down to the wire. But I believe it's a lot closer than the polls are saying it is.
I heard the same thing. I think the Brett Favre scandal and all the accompanying fraud tainted Phil from ever being elected again.
Just mouth the right slogans, scare people into thinking the guy or gal on the other team will ruin the country and it doesn't matter to some how awful of a candidate or human being you are. Or how monumentally stupid you are. Tuberville is one of the dumbest and most ignorant politicians around. He's at "Go Gata" level. But that doesn't matter to a lot of people. He says things you can put on a shirt and lots of adults seem to want to go to rallies dressed in shirts, hats, shoes, flags, socks, bags, etc with pics of their guy and his slogans.
The House is flipping.
Senate will be razor thin.
It will be a deadlocked session of Congress where nothing gets done again because no one is going to play nice. Rinse and repeat.
I only see dems flipping one red senate seat, and that's NC.
I think Ossoff is cruising to victory in GA.
All the polls that have dems with leads in these deep red states is just horse crap. I don't know how many times this has to happen before people start to see it for what it is. IA, AK, TX, KS, those are staying red. OH will go with Husted.
Collins will end up winning Maine by six or more points. Sununu's internal polling has him up in NH, which would be a flip. I don't expect Tafoya to win in MN but I think it's going to be very close.
On the house side, it's going to be close. The latest reliable poll has the generic ballot at D+4. If that's actually the case on election day, it will be interesting. GOP gerrymandering is going to make a huge difference in how it all shakes out, I'm afraid.
Dems better make hay now. With the census coming, if the GOP holds the white house in 28 and has at least one branch of gov't, the house district map is going to be transformed in a way that could shut out dems for a decade or more. They need to moderate, they need to abandon some of the craziness, and they need to start putting forward some strong center-left candidates that indies and moderate republicans can get behind.
As a stock market gambler, I look forward to two more years of hopeless gridlock.
Met with her in her office in DC once. I'm still trying to wash the dumb off me. OMG, you have no idea. And I agreee, somehow Dems choice of candidate might be worse. MS would be the last state to ever swing blue, but Dems don't do themselves any favors.
And thank God for the blue states paying all that into the fed, so that the red states like MS that are "taker" states can have some money to spend. Don't yell at me, look it up.
Your attempts to make a very binary and simplistic argument to gloss over a very nuanced and complicated reality to score some cheap political points is duly noted.
I agree with that. Odds are, we would be better off sticking with her than running someone different. I was just trying to explain why I think she is seen as a weak Senator at this juncture, when you compare her to what Mississippi has been accustomed to over the past 50 or 60 years - Cochran, Lott, Stennis, and Eastland.
What is tough to grasp and accept is that 'nothing gets done again because no one is going to play nice' is also applicable to times when the same party has a majority in both the House and Senate.
Getting close to my preferred dem/rep mix. I want congress always run by whoever is not in the White House. With the idiots in DC nothing happening is way better anything that they come up with happening.
It possible that its just coincidental, but it seems like things run better with a Democrat in the WH and a Republican controlled congress.
I pine for the mid-to-late 90s halcyon years of Clinton/Gingrich/Lott glacially incremental policy reforms.
I'm indifferent, but if the branches of government won't check/balance, I am left to root for dysfunctional political parties to do so by their nature. If we had any Republicans with a single nut or Democrats with a single brain cell, we'd have much better than we currently have.
Interestingly enough Gingrich basically patented the political playbook of demonizing the other side to create an internal enemy to fight with and energize the base against the bad guys. Co-Pilot has an interesting take on the path:
1960s CIVIL RIGHTS / CULTURAL UPHEAVAL
│
▼
NIXON
Electoral & cultural realignment
"Law and order"/identity politics
│
▼
REAGAN
Conservative coalition solidifies
Ideological party sorting
│
▼
GINGRICH
Confrontation becomes strategy
Opponent depicted as illegitimate
Conflict generates media attention
│
▼
LIMBAUGH + FOX NEWS
Partisan politics becomes media
entertainment
│
▼
CLINTON / BUSH
Impeachment, contested election,
war and deeper sorting
│
▼
OBAMA
Tea Party + cultural polarization
+ demographic transformation
│
▼
SOCIAL MEDIA
Gatekeepers disappear
Outrage spreads instantly
│
▼
TRUMP
Populism + grievance + media
+ confrontation + social media
│
▼
POLITICS BECOMES IDENTITY
It was explained to me early on in this race that for Colom to have a chance to beat CH Smith that he had to have a lot of Republicans decide that she wasn't a very good Republican. At the same time he had to convince them he wasn't a liberal Democrat and for them to cross the aisle and vote for him. Here in the Golden Triangle where he is the DA for all or parts of Lowndes, Clay, Oktibbeha, and Noxubee counties, he had some success getting Republicans believing that early on in the campaign. He fought off a lot of the George Soros cloud following him.
I've got to believe that he has given up that strategy by seeing this headline appear in the paper today because those Republicans that he convinced just stopped in their tracks and ran the other way. When I saw this in the paper today I also asked Gemini AI how much money George Soros had contributed to Scott Colom in this Congressional race AND when he was first elected as the DA in 2015. In this campaign the answer was between Soros directly, from his son, from the rest of the Soros family and from Soros supported PACs, Colom had received $760,000. During his DA campaign in 2015 the answer was $1 MILLION. I can't see him get any crossover vote with these two factions campaigning for or financing his campaign.
I've got to believe that he has given up that strategy by seeing this headline appear in the paper today because those Republicans that he convinced just stopped in their tracks and ran the other way. When I saw this in the paper today I also asked Gemini AI how much money George Soros had contributed to Scott Colom in this Congressional race AND when he was first elected as the DA in 2015. In this campaign the answer was between Soros directly, from his son, from the rest of the Soros family and from Soros supported PACs, Colom had received $760,000. During his DA campaign in 2015 the answer was $1 MILLION. I can't see him get any crossover vote with these two factions campaigning for or financing his campaign.
Beto is in the bucket that Talarico is about to fall into. And both of them might like that.
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