Most of today’s higher prices are Biden-era inflation

scotchtiger · Monday at 3:19 PM

dpic73 said:
One thing I never see anyone on the Right acknowledge is the reason for the extended shutdowns. How much do you value life is the operative question. Some people care about it, some don't.

A cross-sectional analysis published in the JAMA Health Forum estimated that if all U.S. states had implemented universal strong restrictions similar to the 10 most restrictive states, excess deaths would have been 10% to 21% lower (saving an estimated 271,000 to 447,000 lives) over a two-year period.

US State Restrictions and Excess COVID-19 Pandemic Deaths

This cross-sectional study uses state-level mortality and population data for 2020 to 2022 to determine whether the strength of state COVID-19 restrictions were associated with excess pandemic deaths in the US.

jamanetwork.com

The study doesn’t account for other factors. For example, a quick AI search tells me that the 10 least restrictive states have 13.3% higher levels of obesity and 10% higher rates of cardiovascular disease than the 10 most restrictive states. We know those with obesity and other comorbidities were exponentially more likely to die of Covid complications, so underlying health factors could explain the disparity just as much as the actual Covid restrictions themselves.

The study also specifically calls out things like school closures as not elective relative to the cost.

Very happy I was in SC for Covid.

dpic73 · Monday at 3:39 PM

scotchtiger said:
The study doesn’t account for other factors. For example, a quick AI search tells me that the 10 least restrictive states have 13.3% higher levels of obesity and 10% higher rates of cardiovascular disease than the 10 most restrictive states. We know those with obesity and other comorbidities were exponentially more likely to die of Covid complications, so underlying health factors could explain the disparity just as much as the actual Covid restrictions themselves.

The study also specifically calls out things like school closures as not elective relative to the cost.

Very happy I was in SC for Covid.

What would have happened to those same fatties if they had been vaccinated OR didn't come in contact with COVID like in a more restrictive state?

No need to remind us that you don't care about those people, only your family.

scotchtiger · Monday at 3:52 PM

dpic73 said:
What would have happened to those same fatties if they had been vaccinated OR didn't come in contact with COVID like in a more restrictive state?

No need to remind us that you don't care about those people, only your family.

My point is that population's risk of death was already exponentially greater, and because the less restrictive states had many more of these people, the mortality rates in those states would have been higher even with identical Covid restrictions. The study fails to account for this critical variable.

dpic73 · Monday at 4:00 PM

scotchtiger said:
My point is that population's risk of death was already exponentially greater, and because the less restrictive states had many more of these people, the mortality rates in those states would have been higher even with identical Covid restrictions. The study fails to account for this critical variable.

The COVID mortality rates would likely have been lower had they had fewer opportunities to come in contact with the virus, ya feel me?

fskillet · Monday at 4:53 PM

scotchtiger said:
The study doesn’t account for other factors. For example, a quick AI search tells me that the 10 least restrictive states have 13.3% higher levels of obesity and 10% higher rates of cardiovascular disease than the 10 most restrictive states. We know those with obesity and other comorbidities were exponentially more likely to die of Covid complications, so underlying health factors could explain the disparity just as much as the actual Covid restrictions themselves.

The study also specifically calls out things like school closures as not elective relative to the cost.

Very happy I was in SC for Covid.

Prepandemic mortality rates in specific communities was accounted for in this study. If your gripe is that cardiovascular disease and obesity weren't specifically singled out, then I think you're just being pedantic. Regardless, agreed with your last sentence.

However, because death rates rose with the emergence of COVID-19, such adjustments in levels could be insufficient because equal percentage changes would raise rates by larger absolute amounts in states with higher rather than lower prepandemic mortality rates. If so, because states with lower baseline death rates adopted more restrictive policies, using excess death rates as the dependent variable might overstate the benefits of restrictions.

An alternative was to analyze excess death ratios computed as actual deaths divided by death baseline rates. These allowed for proportional adjustments in pandemic effects but were likely to underestimate the effectiveness of restrictions when the determinants of baseline and pandemic death rates differed. For example, persons living in nursing homes, areas with high population density, or making extensive use of public transportation may have been more vulnerable to COVID-19,16,17,33 while these factors were less closely associated with prepandemic mortality. In combination, analysis of excess death rates and ratios provided likely upper and lower bounds on the restriction effects.

bdgan · Monday at 5:00 PM

fatpiggy said:
What exactly is their military capable of accomplishing? Chaos? They can barely do that. They can barely effect the flow of oil on their home turf. They can barely even cause chaos now.

Keeping them in power

scotchtiger · Monday at 6:39 PM

fatpiggy · Monday at 6:39 PM

bdgan said:
Keeping them in power

That may be tested soon too. We will see.

baltimorened · Tuesday at 5:17 AM

dpic73 said:
One thing I never see anyone on the Right acknowledge is the reason for the extended shutdowns. How much do you value life is the operative question. Some people care about it, some don't.

A cross-sectional analysis published in the JAMA Health Forum estimated that if all U.S. states had implemented universal strong restrictions similar to the 10 most restrictive states, excess deaths would have been 10% to 21% lower (saving an estimated 271,000 to 447,000 lives) over a two-year period.

US State Restrictions and Excess COVID-19 Pandemic Deaths

This cross-sectional study uses state-level mortality and population data for 2020 to 2022 to determine whether the strength of state COVID-19 restrictions were associated with excess pandemic deaths in the US.

jamanetwork.com

there have been multiple debates about this issue on the board for years. But, I come back to the position of the Biden administration..."if you get the vaccine, you won't get the virus" , OK let me get the vaccine.

Now I have the vaccince so I won't get the virus...Oh, but everything is shut down because i might get the virus.

scotchtiger · Tuesday at 7:42 AM

fskillet said:
Prepandemic mortality rates in specific communities was accounted for in this study. If your gripe is that cardiovascular disease and obesity weren't specifically singled out, then I think you're just being pedantic. Regardless, agreed with your last sentence.

However, because death rates rose with the emergence of COVID-19, such adjustments in levels could be insufficient because equal percentage changes would raise rates by larger absolute amounts in states with higher rather than lower prepandemic mortality rates. If so, because states with lower baseline death rates adopted more restrictive policies, using excess death rates as the dependent variable might overstate the benefits of restrictions.

An alternative was to analyze excess death ratios computed as actual deaths divided by death baseline rates. These allowed for proportional adjustments in pandemic effects but were likely to underestimate the effectiveness of restrictions when the determinants of baseline and pandemic death rates differed. For example, persons living in nursing homes, areas with high population density, or making extensive use of public transportation may have been more vulnerable to COVID-19,16,17,33 while these factors were less closely associated with prepandemic mortality. In combination, analysis of excess death rates and ratios provided likely upper and lower bounds on the restriction effects.

Prepandemic mortality rates don’t address my point. It was abundantly clear from the onset that individuals who were obese of had other comorbidities like cardiovascular conditions or diabetes were at far greater risk from Covid. That doesn’t mean these people would have shown up in a prepandemic mortality rate, because these conditions weren’t fatal on their own. It was the combination of their condition and covid that caused complications.

We really did everyone a disservice by not making this more clear. The powers that be scared everyone when in reality, healthy people under 50 had an infinitesimal risk of dying from COVID. Businesses were damaged unnecessarily, mental health suffered, our children lost education and socialization, etc.

We should have instructed those at greater risk to isolate and not forced everyone into the same restrictions. We should have made it abundantly clear that being unhealthy was a massive problem and diet, exercise and maintaining a healthy weight were the best defenses against Covid - not a cloth mask or a shuttered business or an uneducated child.

hopefultiger13 · Tuesday at 9:32 AM

OP should go all in and blame Obama!

m.knox · Tuesday at 9:52 AM

hopefultiger13 said:
OP should go all in and blame Obama!

Obamaflation is not nearly as bad as Bidenflation.

TigerGrowls · 2026-10-07T04:10:17-0500

baltimorened said:
trump is making the same mistake Biden did. People in the US don't have any idea of the data you just provided. But they do know that gas is higher, food is higher, interest on their credit cards/mortgage rates are higher..

They know that tariffs have caused higher prices, and the war with Iran, which they've been told will be over in about 40 times, are actions taken but Trump. And he promised in his campaign to reduce inflation and prices.

He's telling people how great things are, and in a macro sense, he might be right. But most people live in a micro world...do I have enough money to make it from the beginning of the month to the end.

In effect, Trump is telling them they do, but they know they don't. And they blame trump policies.

If republicans end up holding the house and Senate, democrats should be the ones questioning election integrity.

Do they blame Trump for the highest average household income??? Are they unhappy that poverty is at an all time low??? I'm happy with tariffs Ned. Very happy with all the jobs tariffs are creating.

TigerGrowls · 2026-10-07T04:18:54-0500

baltimorened said:
if your believe that I think democrats will reduce prices, than I guess I didn't make my point well.

I'm only suggesting that telling someone who is struggling to make ends meet that everything is great is, in my opinion, not a wise thing to do.

I realize, and agree totally that overall economics conditions are really good. All the numbers are good (and I expect will get better) for all the reasons you have posted in the past. But for the average American who understands zilch about economics, they aren't looking at the overall numbers....they're looking at family budgets and there's more outgo than income.

I just think trump would be better off telling the American people that he realizes things are difficult now. Then lay out a plan on how we are bringing things back into kilter. Senator Kennedy said it very well yesterday on one of the Sunday shows (I won't get the quite exactly right) " you can't tell the people believe me , don't believe your lying checkbook" when it comes to family economics.

Oh, and I don't think raising taxes is going to bring down grocery prices. (But do think ending the war with Iran will bring down fuel prices and reduced inflation....makes you wonder why we don't end it)

Ned...you think most Americans are stupid???

baltimorened · 2026-10-07T05:35:17-0500

TigerGrowls said:
Ned...you think most Americans are stupid???

I think most Americans live in the present. All the things you have posted about the economy are accurate - GDP, manufacturing, inflation, effect of tariffs, jobs etc. ( and while Americans might not be stupid, I believe they really have little idea of how our government works, or the basics of economics)

But, every day they go to the grocery store, fill up gas tanks, see electricity bills increase etc....and they blame the government for high prices. Might be nonsensical, but we all need somebody to blame. Biden is gone, so that leaves trump.

Now in reality, you can't be happy or satisfied with what the Republican controlled government has done over the last two years. Also, in reality folks like dpic can't truly expect that electing a Democrat controlled Congress this time around will change any of problems we face. But when people have problems they want change even if the change will have either no impact or a negative impacts.

Do I think Americans are stupid....you can answer that question by looking at how many people voted for Kamala...

bdgan · 2026-10-07T09:31:48-0500

scotchtiger said:
This isn’t complicated folks:

— Inflation was going to happen due to Covid regardless of who was president
— Biden made it worse with the unnecessary stimulus and entitlement expansions in the American rescue plan
— Biden would have made it even worse with more entitlement expansions in the BBB bill, but that was thankfully shot down by friendly fire
— Trump made inflation higher than necessary with tariffs and the Iran war

Our politicians suck. Give them less money and less power.

Inflation rate by year:

2021 4.7%
2022 8.0%
2023 4.1%
2024 2.9%
2025 2.7%
2026 3.3%

2.9% inflation during Trump's second term isn't exceptionally high even though it is a tic up from 2025 due to the war. I think it will take time for prices to fall after the war because a lot of it is refining capacity but I do think inflation will fall to 2.5% and gas prices will fall to $3.50.

The irony:

People are mostly concerned about healthcare and housing. Those things are barely impacted by tariffs and they're only minimally impacted by oil prices.
Democrats complain about oil prices but blue states tax fossil fuels the most. They do what they can to limit drilling, new refineries, and pipelines.

I don't know how to give politicians less money. First of all they get to decide how much they're going to spend. Secondly they spend money they don't have. We collect $5 trillion and spend $7 trillion. In what world does that make sense. One of the ridiculous claims made by many politicians to support more spending is that the USA is the richest nation on the face of the earth. Have they seen our debt to GDP ratio?

Rifler · 2026-10-07T11:19:25-0500

The big flaw in this whole debate has been framing the conversation around prices, rather than purchasing power,... Inflation under Biden robbed roughly 25% of the purchasing power of every American consumer,.. Prices that have been increased by inflation can only be driven down by deflation, which in itself would be a very bitter economic pill to swallow,... Since increased prices will never revert to their previous state, the obvious solution needs to occur on the income side of the ledger,... Slow steady wage growth with controlled inflation is the answer, and this is the approach being applied by the current administration.

tigres88 · 2026-10-07T11:30:42-0500

Rifler said:
The big flaw in this whole debate has been framing the conversation around prices, rather than purchasing power,... Inflation under Biden robbed roughly 25% of the purchasing power of every American consumer,.. Prices that have been increased by inflation can only be driven down by deflation, which in itself would be a very bitter economic pill to swallow,... Since increased prices will never revert to their previous state, the obvious solution needs to occur on the income side of the ledger,... Slow steady wage growth with controlled inflation is the answer, and this is the approach being applied by the current administration.

the comma plus ellipses combo is truly insane work

Rifler · 2026-10-07T11:32:39-0500

tigres88 said:
the comma plus ellipses combo is truly insane work

Stream of thought...

fskillet · 2026-10-07T11:55:41-0500

Well this is a shocking result. Who could've ever seen it coming

Most of today’s higher prices are Biden-era inflation

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