A look at the preseason Top 10 at InterMat
- Thread starter TomKakert
- Start date
Why isn't Gabe 2 @ 174Interesting piece running down the top ten in each weight class heading into the season, per Intermat.
College wrestling rankings: InterMat reveals 2026-27 preseason Top 10 for all weight classes
The first college wrestling rankings from InterMat are out as the preseason is fully underway with the fall semester in full swing. Once we get towww.on3.com
You would put him over Minto, who took 4th and 2nd in trips to NCAA? I hate doesn’t make any sense.
He’s also never been to the NCAA at 174. Gabe did outstanding at 197 but 174 isn’t 197.
I would put Gabe as a high probability of making the finals at 174.
You think a guy who says something this ridiculous is sensical?
Honest Question about Jordan Williams - Forums
Jordan Williams would have AA last year Brands Bros screw him and put In VV Then he he comes back did he have other offers Does he just love the program just a strange situation
We will see Minto and mess are both very offensive wrestlers not may 2-1 ride outs.
Minto went to rideouts with PK with no takedowns and lost last year.
I don’t know about high probability but I definitely think he has a decent chance if he lets it fly. Hopefully his offense will be on display this year at his best weight.
The only person who has a high probability to make the finals is the #1 seed (74.6%).
Not even the #2 seed has better than a 50/50 shot (44.3%).
Ranked #5, as Gabe Arnold is, has him at a 10.5% chance of making the finals.
If Mesenbrink goes 174 I would knock everything down a bit too as he would have a greater than 74.6% chance of making the final, and that has to come from somewhere.
I honestly don't care about percentages, statistics & all that stuff.
My comment comes from my observation from what I have seen from the guys in the weight class.
When I look at the guys at 174 my OPINION is Gabe has a high probability of making the finals.
I concur. If he does indeed possess some Offense he's been cleverly hiding, this would be as good of time as any to show it. He'll be a handful at 174, no doubt.
I like the work you do.
However, this years pre-season rankings don't mean much for Iowa because
1) We had a number of guys wrestling injured last year
2) We have a couple transfers who either did not wrestle or wrestled a different weight
3) We have 2 year men taking over who did not wrestle much last year.
4) Gabe is at his correct weight, finally
Someone said he was very disinterested in the team this year (on another thread). I am very interested to see the progress at: 125, 133, 141, what happens at 49/57, 165, 174, 184, 197 and 285 due to the reasons above. We need to stay healthy, obviously.
All of this makes for an exciting year. By mid January we should have a good idea of our team potential at Big T and Nats, not so much right now
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This puts me in mind of a couple of things.
I imagine pre-season rankings are pretty inaccurate every year. There is the stuff we all know about - freshmen missing, question marks about weights, all the things in your list, etc.) - and then there is the "it's just hard" factor. I think I might play around with this idea to see how big the swings typically are.
This is an Iowa fan board. Everyone here should be more optimistic about Iowa wrestlers than others, or else what's the point? Which makes me want to come up with a best case scenario set of projections for every team. Forget about the average - our guys are from Lake Wobegon (google it).
#1 is always true. I doubt this year will suddenly be any different.
If all 10 starters are 100% healthy.....
Most likely to win a Natty
1. 285- Its a class up for grabs, if healthy he has the resume to take hold of it
2. 184- he has what it takes even despite the other big 3
3. 133- Any other year I would have him higher but this is a good a 133 class we have seen in years
Drop off
4. 174- Until I see some more offense I can't go that deep. He will be a strong 174 but the weight class is quicker than 197- which was an advantage that could be negated.
Reality
Most likely to win a Natty
1. 285- Its a class up for grabs, if healthy he has the resume to take hold of it
2. 184- he has what it takes even despite the other big 3
3. 133- Any other year I would have him higher but this is a good a 133 class we have seen in years
Drop off
4. 174- Until I see some more offense I can't go that deep. He will be a strong 174 but the weight class is quicker than 197- which was an advantage that could be negated.
Reality
Yes, but there were serious issues with 3 of the guys from last years team, who will be wrestling this year. Two could be finalist this year, not sure about the third
The whole point is pre-season rankings for us this year don't mean much, at least to me. Contrast this with the Covid year, the next when we won, and the following. Those line-ups were pretty set and predictions could be reasonably be made. This year, not so much
Fair points.
I'd like to see Gabe work on the top position this year. He is ultra strong, and with good technique could ride well. The weight and length disparity last year made it near impossible. With his defense and some great riding, a touch of his quickness for offense........
To me the whole thing with Kueter is he hasn't had the confidence to be the man yet. Its easy to say it but imagine dominating everything along the way while just always going up in weight class as drastic as he did. Then you get to the Iowa room a bit undersized and Big Tony just breaks you.
Then when you do get your starting spot you are building but just get it handed to you by greats in Gable, Wyatt, Paris and Kerk. Really the golden age of HWT.
Add in never really healthy and that's a hell of a mixture.
This year there are no big dogs left in the class. If Ben is healthy and gains confidence then watch out. Becomes the the junk yard dog he once was then he can start getting to his offense.
Then when you do get your starting spot you are building but just get it handed to you by greats in Gable, Wyatt, Paris and Kerk. Really the golden age of HWT.
Add in never really healthy and that's a hell of a mixture.
This year there are no big dogs left in the class. If Ben is healthy and gains confidence then watch out. Becomes the the junk yard dog he once was then he can start getting to his offense.
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Not sure how Keuters dual season or BT goes. You would be wise to not underestimate him at Natty's.
I was told by a fat bald podcaster that Crookham was crippled and wouldn’t be ready until February
Agree don't just cut a guy when he gets to his feet. Gabe can ride it just seems like he's not interested in it.
I doubt we see him before big 10 duals no reason to rush it. Him getting 4-6 matches before big 10s wouldn't shock me. And late Jan early Feb is about right that's 1 year after his surgery .
He did look better then i thought the way people were talking I thought he still might have a brace on or something and it looks like Jordan williams is still with the team i assume he will at least get suspended for awhile at least
KP is a gamer but really feels like Delucca is going to need to step up Big early season.
If its KP until January its not exactly a murders row of 133 lbers with bellarmine isu uni pitt and probably msu best match up is probably grice from isu which I think is a match not saying KP will win but Imo its a close match
He couldnt beat the #4 and Wask of navy last year at 174.
Always good form to reply to your own post, but I do not think the first of the couple things mentioned above warrants its own thread.
How good are the pre-season rankings?
As a baseline let's use the 2026 tournament field. How many of the 330 wrestlers were ranked among the 330 pre-season rankings? For Intermat the answer is 246 (74.5%), while it is 237 (71.8%) for Flo and WrestleStat.
Maybe that doesn't sound too great. But remember that they do not include freshmen with no college results. Intermat had 27 freshmen in their pre-season rankings, Flo had 29, and WrestleStat had 32. With 55 freshmen in the 2026 tournament their hit rates ranged between 49% and 58%. Not that great. I am not sure how many of the 55 freshmen qualifiers came from freshmen with no college results and how many came from freshmen with college results. Clearly some of the 55 were true freshmen and should not be counted in the denominator making the actual "freshmen with college results" hit rate higher.
On the non-freshmen side of the ledger Intermat got 219 of 275 (79.6%) correct, Flo got 208 (75.6%) and WrestleStat got 202 (73.5%).
Summing it all up, I think that in situations where they have information (non-freshmen and freshmen with prior results) the rankers pre-season ranks have a roughly 75% hit rate by the time the post-season rolls around. By year end rankings that number goes up to 90% (plus or minus).
4-6 regular season matches is not a recipe for success in the postseason, IMHO. Though I do get that he can't or shouldn't go in hard on a full schedule. I'm hopeful he's able to wrestle far more. He's apparently feeling pretty good if he's working out without the encumbrance of braces.
Grice would/will handle KP with relative ease.
Carter Pearson will be pushing Grice and it wouldn't shock me if he's the guy come march
Pearson has surprised wouldnt of expected that out of him coming out of high school
He's a hard worker everything is earned he wasn't born with it . Hes a very smart kid and if you've a work ethic and high intelligence success isn't far off. Watching him at Sebolt when he was in HS I knew he would be good at the next level he was so coachable. He can be shown something once and be hitting it going live 10 minutes later
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