Class 4 Region D: Mid-season (almost) Ratings Points Projections

anon1791056110 · Sep 22, 2026

I got to wondering how the seedings might shake out for Class 4 Region D, in view of the strong possibility that there could be four teams with 10-0 records and another at 9-1. Specifically, as a Salem fan, I was concerned that Salem’s opponents’ (with the exceptions of PH and Dinwiddie) inability to win more than a very few games might cost the Spartans dearly come playoff seeding time.

As it turned out, those fears are very well founded. Please refer to the attached image, where I’ve shown my work (hopefully I successfully attached it). I’ve assumed 10-0 records for Handley, Jefferson Forest, Salem, and George Washington, and 9-1 for Sherando (only loss being to Handley). I’m not taking any victories for granted; I’m just assuming those records for these teams for the sake of this exercise. Also, all of this is based on my best guess for the season win totals for each of these teams’ opponents. So, there’s a whole lot of guess work involved. Finally, I think I understand the ratings scale system pretty well. However, if I’ve made any major mistakes, I welcome any corrections.

So, all of that said, the bottom line is that even finishing 10-0 (by no means a given, with a very tough game at Patrick Henry next week), Salem has no prayer of getting a top three seed in the region, if JF, Handley, and GW all go undefeated. The Spartans *might* edge out 9-1 Sherando for fourth, but that is by no means guaranteed either. And should Salem lose to PH and finish 9-1, sixth or worse might even be in play, depending upon how well James Wood and others finish.

Here’s my guess-based projection:
1. Jefferson Forest - 10-0, 320
2. Handley - 10-0, 316
3. GW - 10-0, 316
4. Salem - 10-0, 302
5. Sherando - 9-1, 300

From the best I can tell, in this scenario, Handley would win the tiebreaker over GW based on condition number five, Opponents Average Rating.

It will be interesting for me to go back at the end of the regular season and see how accurate my guesses and projections proved to be. It should be an exciting regional playoff.

Vaborn76 · Sep 22, 2026

Handley will not go undefeated. Yes they have a QB that is legit, he will play at the next level, no doubt in my mind. This is not a team that will go 10-0. There defense is not great, good teams will score on them. Teams that can run the ball will march down the field and limit Tristan being on the field, and when you are one dimensional as they are, good teams will find away to stop them. Handley will end the season with as many as 3 losses. I think there is a possibility that James Wood could enter the playoffs with only 1 or two losses. I think Sherando has the possibility of going undefeated but that is only going to happen if they can find a way to break the Kettle Run curse. Handley does have Sherando at home and that game could go either way due to Sherando having a major weaknesses at one of their corner positions.

In my opinion the road to the state playoffs will run through Jefferson Forest or GW. If there is a team from up north that could have a say in that, it will be Sherando, and I can tell you this already. Come playoff time, teams are not going to want to come into Arrow Head stadium and play on that field.

CrushBlock · Sep 22, 2026

I may be a big dummy but if this Salem team stays healthy I’m not worried about them. On the road or home. Once they get out of the region is where I have my concerns. Team is that physical, just don’t think anyone west of Charlottesville will be able to handle their ground and pound. They are really going to surprise people. Even their back up running backs are excellent and we have barely seen them. O line play is as physical as it comes, just need to continue to clean up mental assignment errors, but they will demoralize the interior box of any team in the state.

Salem has been on the road in the playoff plenty because of this unfortunately.

anon1791056110 · Sep 22, 2026

Vaborn76 said:
Handley will not go undefeated. Yes they have a QB that is legit, he will play at the next level, no doubt in my mind. This is not a team that will go 10-0. There defense is not great, good teams will score on them. Teams that can run the ball will march down the field and limit Tristan being on the field, and when you are one dimensional as they are, good teams will find away to stop them. Handley will end the season with as many as 3 losses. I think there is a possibility that James Wood could enter the playoffs with only 1 or two losses. I think Sherando has the possibility of going undefeated but that is only going to happen if they can find a way to break the Kettle Run curse. Handley does have Sherando at home and that game could go either way due to Sherando having a major weaknesses at one of their corner positions.

In my opinion the road to the state playoffs will run through Jefferson Forest or GW. If there is a team from up north that could have a say in that, it will be Sherando, and I can tell you this already. Come playoff time, teams are not going to want to come into Arrow Head stadium and play on that field.

Nice post with good points. As I stated, I primarily did this whole exercise because I was very curious as to how Salem would fare if all four of those teams went undefeated. For that purpose, I assumed Handley finishes 10-0.

I’d say there’s no question you know more about the Winchester-area teams than I do. That said, I will be very surprised if the Judges finish worse than 8-2.

As for the Eagles of George Washington, the common thread running through their teams of the past thirteen years has been good athleticism, not-so-good physicality. Every year in the playoffs, they’ve been sent home by a stronger, more physical team that has dominated line play, and the games have not been close. The head coach and probably much of the staff has remained constant throughout this period. So I doubt much has changed in the approach from last season to this season. Honest question - why should we believe that this year will be any different from the last thirteen for GW?

CrushBlock · Sep 22, 2026

I would say Salem has a higher chance of going 10-0 than JF (think a loss to PH is possible, PH is tough and Salem is still a bit clumsy). To be fair, if JF does get out of their schedule 10-0, I will be the first to admit I underestimated them. They have an awesomely tough schedule. And will be a worthy opponent. to get out of their schedule without a loss is a big deal.

Sherando beat a 24 Salem team that had more in common with the 25 Salem team than with the 23 state runner up team. Not saying 24 wasn’t a good team, but go look at the chatter from that year. Even Salem fans were very shaky and questioning Salem’s ability to be a state contender. I’m personally not worried about Handley or Sherando even if they go 10-0. Same with GW. If they prove me wrong, well I’m just some idiot online anyway. But I think I do have my finger on the pulse of what makes Salem teams annoying for opponents late in the playoffs, this team has it, 24 and 25 teams unfortunately did not.

Now if Salem is getting hurt and making the same mistakes game 9-10 as they have made games 1-4, I may change my tone significantly. But this team has made an old mule very happy so far.

rawacopaea · Sep 22, 2026

Your rationale is sound but I contend JF will have the toughest road to being 10-0. The Seminole is arguably one the toughest districts in the state. LCA is a little down compared to year's past but they will be a tough test for JF this week. Then there is Heritage in week 10. Salem has PH and GW must go to Magna Vista week 10. Lots of things can happen. Ironically, Sherando could be the beneficiary of all the above.

anon1791056110 · Sep 22, 2026

CrushBlock said:
I may be a big dummy but if this Salem team stays healthy I’m not worried about them. On the road or home. Once they get out of the region is where I have my concerns. Team is that physical, just don’t think anyone west of Charlottesville will be able to handle their ground and pound. They are really going to surprise people. Even their back up running backs are excellent and we have barely seen them. O line play is as physical as it comes, just need to continue to clean up mental assignment errors, but they will demoralize the interior box of any team in the state.

Salem has been on the road in the playoff plenty because of this unfortunately.

Yes, it has become quite tiresome having the Spartans sent on the road simply because the unholy trinity of Cave Spring, Christiansburg, and Hidden Valley can’t come up with more than five or six wins among them. CS might win five or six by themselves this year, but only because Blacksburg is in another prolonged dry spell, and Pulaski County apparently doesn’t have a football program anymore.

Ultimately, extreme circumstances aside, I don’t think it matters a great deal in high school where the games are played. In my experience, very few schools have a pronounced home-field advantage. But it is much more preferable to stay in familiar surroundings, and making a long bus trip probably doesn’t boost anyone’s performance.

MaroonDude · Sep 22, 2026

Sparty needs some opponents to get some wins.

* Note to all. I learned this some years ago- JV wins do not count.

SFUWO 21 · Sep 24, 2026

SpartanO’Yore said:
I got to wondering how the seedings might shake out for Class 4 Region D, in view of the strong possibility that there could be four teams with 10-0 records and another at 9-1. Specifically, as a Salem fan, I was concerned that Salem’s opponents’ (with the exceptions of PH and Dinwiddie) inability to win more than a very few games might cost the Spartans dearly come playoff seeding time.

As it turned out, those fears are very well founded. Please refer to the attached image, where I’ve shown my work (hopefully I successfully attached it). I’ve assumed 10-0 records for Handley, Jefferson Forest, Salem, and George Washington, and 9-1 for Sherando (only loss being to Handley). I’m not taking any victories for granted; I’m just assuming those records for these teams for the sake of this exercise. Also, all of this is based on my best guess for the season win totals for each of these teams’ opponents. So, there’s a whole lot of guess work involved. Finally, I think I understand the ratings scale system pretty well. However, if I’ve made any major mistakes, I welcome any corrections.

So, all of that said, the bottom line is that even finishing 10-0 (by no means a given, with a very tough game at Patrick Henry next week), Salem has no prayer of getting a top three seed in the region, if JF, Handley, and GW all go undefeated. The Spartans *might* edge out 9-1 Sherando for fourth, but that is by no means guaranteed either. And should Salem lose to PH and finish 9-1, sixth or worse might even be in play, depending upon how well James Wood and others finish.

Here’s my guess-based projection:
1. Jefferson Forest - 10-0, 320
2. Handley - 10-0, 316
3. GW - 10-0, 316
4. Salem - 10-0, 302
5. Sherando - 9-1, 300

From the best I can tell, in this scenario, Handley would win the tiebreaker over GW based on condition number five, Opponents Average Rating.

It will be interesting for me to go back at the end of the regular season and see how accurate my guesses and projections proved to be. It should be an exciting regional playoff.
View attachment 1449417

You only need to look at all of OOD games. If your district opponents lose most of their OOD games then your pretty much done. Unless a future opponent still has a OOD game to play. One everyone starts district play it breaks even. No matter what they do it doesn't change your points because one team will win and one will lose.
So the key is for the OOD opponents you defeat keep winning vs teams you don't play

SFUWO 21 · Sep 24, 2026

CrushBlock said:
I may be a big dummy but if this Salem team stays healthy I’m not worried about them. On the road or home. Once they get out of the region is where I have my concerns. Team is that physical, just don’t think anyone west of Charlottesville will be able to handle their ground and pound. They are really going to surprise people. Even their back up running backs are excellent and we have barely seen them. O line play is as physical as it comes, just need to continue to clean up mental assignment errors, but they will demoralize the interior box of any team in the state.

Salem has been on the road in the playoff plenty because of this unfortunately.

Usually the better team still wins home or away. Since 2021 Salem has lost 7 home games. During this time they have also lost 6 road games. So I'd say it really doesn't matter. If Salem had a crazy home win streak then it would.

Va.Matrix · Sep 24, 2026

pulled these off my site for 4D Expected wins for the season, plus Handley's game by game. My model only gives them 7.3 expected wins, though it is giving the Hedgesville game a 50/50 because it can't analyze out of state teams. vafbmatrix.com

anon1791056110 · Sep 24, 2026

SFUWO 21 said:
You only need to look at all of OOD games. If your district opponents lose most of their OOD games then your pretty much done. Unless a future opponent still has a OOD game to play. One everyone starts district play it breaks even. No matter what they do it doesn't change your points because one team will win and one will lose.
So the key is for the OOD opponents you defeat keep winning vs teams you don't play

Yes, that’s all correct.

MaroonDude · Tuesday at 10:33 AM

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Class 4 Region D: Mid-season (almost) Ratings Points Projections

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