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3 rate hikes expected this year due to inflation

fatpiggy

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
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"To put this into perspective, the already astronomical expectation of +23.1% growth has been more than doubled. This will mark the 2nd consecutive quarter of earnings growth above +25% and the 7th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the S&P 500. The last time growth was this strong was in Q2 2021 as the US economy emerged from the pandemic and $4+ trillion in stimulus was handed out. We are arguably in the midst of the biggest technological revolution in US history. The data is absolutely insane."

I agree with the bolded statement above.I'm not saying it's all due to Trump, but we are about to see growth like you have never seen before. The money that the hyperscalers are spending is 5-10x what they would normally spend on r&d. They are going to get returns on those investments.

I truly believe that once Elon figured out that DOGE would never put a dent in our debt, that he calculated there is only one way out of our debt problems and that is through growth. Ever since that point, you have seen r&d absolutely explode. They can't miss. If they miss, the country is bankrupt and say goodbye to life as you know it.

The economy is doing well. I admit oil is the achilles heel. A sustained oil price over $100 will not bode well for the world economy. It's a large reason why the Iran war is unpopular.
 
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Thefunksouljon

Thefunksouljon

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Jan 26, 2004
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fatpiggy said:
Nothing you post will be good enough for @Thefunksouljon . He is just a hater. He can't even give a tip of the cap where it's due.

If Dems run on the economy alone, they will get trounced. Unless they can ditch the stench of the Biden admin but they will need a better leader than AOC to do that. I wouldn't feel good if I were a democrat that's for sure.
Click to expand...


Once again, you cannot support your claim and therefore move to a distraction technique. You've not asked what I think about the stock market, nor have I commented. Because that isn't the discussion. I asked what metrics make you say the economy is booming. And since you've only referenced the Stock Market when I ask about the economy 3+ times, I will either assume you don't know or you simply have cheering points and cannot explain how the 2 are not the same thing.

But, thanks for confirming. I will keep asking you, you can keep not answering. Just be clear that the issue here is your inability to answer a question. I am a hater when people can't explain themselves in a discussion, you are failing and flailing.
 
Thefunksouljon

Thefunksouljon

All-Conference
Jan 26, 2004
1,843
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fatpiggy said:
Maybe the jobs report wasn’t that bad after all. Those World Cup jobs were never going to be permanent.


Click to expand...



Did anyone say they were going to be permanent or is this just more of you creating an argument and then declaring a victory against a shadow?
 
fatpiggy

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
26,634
25,598
113
Thefunksouljon said:
Hey sidekick, do you care to fully answer the question?
Click to expand...
To put this into perspective, the already astronomical expectation of +23.1% growth has been more than doubled. This will mark the 2nd consecutive quarter of earnings growth above +25% and the 7th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the S&P 500. The last time growth was this strong was in Q2 2021 as the US economy emerged from the pandemic and $4+ trillion in stimulus was handed out. We are arguably in the midst of the biggest technological revolution in US history. The data is absolutely insane.
 
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Thefunksouljon

Thefunksouljon

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Jan 26, 2004
1,843
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fatpiggy said:
No it's just understanding how to interpret data. Something you clearly have trouble with.
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Again, you made a proclamation in a bubble and decided someone was arguing with you. Did anyone make the declaration that the World Cup gains would be permanent? Who and when?

This has nothing to do with my perspective and data, it has to be you talking to an empty room.
 
Thefunksouljon

Thefunksouljon

All-Conference
Jan 26, 2004
1,843
3,404
113
fatpiggy said:
To put this into perspective, the already astronomical expectation of +23.1% growth has been more than doubled. This will mark the 2nd consecutive quarter of earnings growth above +25% and the 7th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the S&P 500. The last time growth was this strong was in Q2 2021 as the US economy emerged from the pandemic and $4+ trillion in stimulus was handed out. We are arguably in the midst of the biggest technological revolution in US history. The data is absolutely insane.
Click to expand...


So, you are landing on the stock market is the metric to declare the economy is booming? Is that where you have landed after 6 tries?
 
fatpiggy

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
26,634
25,598
113
Thefunksouljon said:
So, you are landing on the stock market is the metric to declare the economy is booming? Is that where you have landed after 6 tries?
Click to expand...
No. Not the stock market. Corporate Earnings.

That's what an economy is. Lot's of corporations competing against each other exchanging goods and services. So, naturally if they are making money that is a sign of a good economy. Now let's watch you squirm with a tough guy act and see you justify a "bad economy" despite record earnings and growth. And low inflation. And lots of new private sector jobs. For Americans.
 
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A

Anon1750875978

Heisman
Dec 26, 2018
8,460
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fatpiggy said:
No. Not the stock market. Corporate Earnings.

That's what an economy is. Lot's of corporations competing against each other exchanging goods and services. So, naturally if they are making money that is a sign of a good economy. Now let's watch you squirm with a tough guy act and see you justify a "bad economy" despite record earnings and growth. And low inflation. And lots of new private sector jobs. For Americans.
Click to expand...
AND LOW INFLATION?????

What rock did you emerge from?
 
Thefunksouljon

Thefunksouljon

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Jan 26, 2004
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fatpiggy said:
No. Not the stock market. Corporate Earnings.

That's what an economy is. Lot's of corporations competing against each other exchanging goods and services. So, naturally if they are making money that is a sign of a good economy. Now let's watch you squirm with a tough guy act and see you justify a "bad economy" despite record earnings and growth. And low inflation. And lots of new private sector jobs. For Americans.
Click to expand...

Oh my, you think me simply asking you a single question and not being distracted by non answers is a tough guy act?

But, thanks for FINALLY clarifying, the economy is Corporate earnings. Did I say somewhere we have a "bad economy?"
 
fatpiggy

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
26,634
25,598
113
Thefunksouljon said:
Oh my, you think me simply asking you a single question and not being distracted by non answers is a tough guy act?

But, thanks for FINALLY clarifying, the economy is Corporate earnings. Did I say somewhere we have a "bad economy?"
Click to expand...
Corporate earnings are a large component of an economy. After badgering me to give you the single biggest thing showing a good economy, i showed it to you. You finished clowning yet?
 
Thefunksouljon

Thefunksouljon

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Jan 26, 2004
1,843
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fatpiggy said:
Corporate earnings are a large component of an economy. After badgering me to give you the single biggest thing showing a good economy, i showed it to you. You finished clowning yet?
Click to expand...


I never said "single biggest thing", you said that. I gave you any canvas to paint on. You are the one who answered. Eventually. Are you done being a clown? Thats the only reason Im clowning on you.
 
Thefunksouljon

Thefunksouljon

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Jan 26, 2004
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fatpiggy said:
40% chance of only 1 rate hike now.

Reading isn't so hard is it?
Click to expand...

You engaged me.

Thefunksouljon said:
Well, considering you said "We are about to witness an economic boom like you have never seen before. And I truly believe this."

I'd say that the answer is "not so good" But here you are thinking you are dunking on people. Where is the ECONOMIC boom? What metrics? You had @18 months, but couldn't sit on your hands for 2.
Click to expand...

Thefunksouljon said:
What specific metric are you using for this claim?

Ill ignore the rest of the post that is incorrect, but what specifically is showing the economy is on fire? Be very clear.
Click to expand...

Thefunksouljon said:
That didn't answer my question. What specific metric indicates the economy is on fire? Be very clear.
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Thefunksouljon said:
So I will ask you a 3rd time, see if you can form a response. You have declared that "the economy is on fire!" I am asking you a very simple question. What metric (or metrics) are you using to make that proclamation?

I know econ101, I am simply asking you to be able to outline what YOU are using to make that proclamation.
Click to expand...

Thefunksouljon said:
You 've given fragments and then backed away. Why is this so hard for you express? Make it simple for me, what metric(s)? Just lay it out, your full definition that shows the economy is booming?
Click to expand...

Thefunksouljon said:
Once again, you cannot support your claim and therefore move to a distraction technique. You've not asked what I think about the stock market, nor have I commented. Because that isn't the discussion. I asked what metrics make you say the economy is booming. And since you've only referenced the Stock Market when I ask about the economy 3+ times, I will either assume you don't know or you simply have cheering points and cannot explain how the 2 are not the same thing.

But, thanks for confirming. I will keep asking you, you can keep not answering. Just be clear that the issue here is your inability to answer a question. I am a hater when people can't explain themselves in a discussion, you are failing and flailing.
Click to expand...

fatpiggy said:
Corporate earnings are a large component of an economy. After badgering me to give you the single biggest thing showing a good economy, i showed it to you. You finished clowning yet?
Click to expand...


See above. I did your homework for you. Care to admit again you were wrong?
 
Thefunksouljon

Thefunksouljon

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Jan 26, 2004
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Thefunksouljon said:
You engaged me.
















See above. I did your homework for you. Care to admit again you were wrong?
Click to expand...


Still waiting for you to 1) admit you were wrong (or lied) 2) have moved the goal posts 3) haven't really answered the question.

I know "I tried, you just don't care/get it/wont be happy with any answer", but you still haven't answered the core question. And you continue to shadow box with yourself and declare victory.
 
M

m.knox

All-Conference
Aug 20, 2003
4,551
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According to some on the left, 3.4 is WAAAAAY more than 9.1%.

Consumer prices rose 0.1% in July, as expected, putting the annual rate at 3.4%​


https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/12/cpi-inflation-report-july-2026.html

  • The consumer price index, a broad gauge of goods and services costs, increased 0.1% in July, putting the annual inflation rate at 3.4%.
  • Excluding food and energy, the measure rose 0.2% and 2.5%, respectively. All of the readings were in line with the Wall Street consensus.
  • Traders reduced the odds that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates when it next meets in September.
 
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yoshi121374

yoshi121374

Heisman
Jan 26, 2006
13,197
22,951
113
m.knox said:
According to some on the left, 3.4 is WAAAAAY more than 9.1%.

Consumer prices rose 0.1% in July, as expected, putting the annual rate at 3.4%​


https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/12/cpi-inflation-report-july-2026.html

  • The consumer price index, a broad gauge of goods and services costs, increased 0.1% in July, putting the annual inflation rate at 3.4%.
  • Excluding food and energy, the measure rose 0.2% and 2.5%, respectively. All of the readings were in line with the Wall Street consensus.
  • Traders reduced the odds that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates when it next meets in September.
Click to expand...

According to you, 9.1 was the Inflation rate when Trump took office. This proves you are a disingenuous Trump cult member who doesn't care about truth,facts, or nuance.
 
Scrubby

Scrubby

Heisman
Jul 2, 2025
10,850
14,357
113
RoseBowlorBust said:
$4 gas again. What a ******* disaster this abomination of a regime is.
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Hahahahaha it was more under biden 😂😂😂

Lose with some grace, chis. Just admit your TDS caused you to post nonsense again and we can all move on. You have a LOT of egg on your face right now.
 
fatpiggy

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
26,634
25,598
113
fatpiggy

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
26,634
25,598
113
Anon1750875978 said:
Appears Randy Kirk skipped economics class in college!😂😂😂😂😂😂

Imagine the pressure ShitStain will put on Warsh to wait until after midterms to raise rates?
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He should not raise rates at the next meeting. The data suggests that a hike would be counter productive.

To lower inflation we need to get more housing supply on the market. Raising rates will not get people who have 2-3% mortgages to put their house on the market.

It's counterintuitive, but i think it is correct.

Also, Trump didn't appoint Warsh to raise rates. If you want to make some money, bet on no rate hike.

I also think this is going to cause the market to keep reaching record highs through mid-terms. It's already undervalued compared to relative time periods of the past 2 years. That is, you are getting more earrings for your price, on the SPX, that at any point in the last 2 years. Watch out above. Iran is the wild card, but they are getting their *** kicked right now.
 
A

Anon1750875978

Heisman
Dec 26, 2018
8,460
14,431
113
fatpiggy said:
He should not raise rates at the next meeting. The data suggests that a hike would be counter productive.

To lower inflation we need to get more housing supply on the market. Raising rates will not get people who have 2-3% mortgages to put their house on the market.

It's counterintuitive, but i think it is correct.

Also, Trump didn't appoint Warsh to raise rates. If you want to make some money, bet on no rate hike.

I also think this is going to cause the market to keep reaching record highs through mid-terms. It's already undervalued compared to relative time periods of the past 2 years. That is, you are getting more earrings for your price, on the SPX, that at any point in the last 2 years. Watch out above. Iran is the wild card, but they are getting their *** kicked right now.
Click to expand...
Iran getting their azzes kicked???

That's subjective.
I'd argue consumers think food and fuel prices are ShitStain's fault.
And Iran knows the political climate in America. They have no motivation to negotiate.

It's public knowledge that the percentage of voters profiting off the stock market is limited to <20% of the voting bloc.
November will be brutal for the GOP.
 
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Hawkedup

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Jul 8, 2025
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fatpiggy said:
He should not raise rates at the next meeting. The data suggests that a hike would be counter productive.

To lower inflation we need to get more housing supply on the market. Raising rates will not get people who have 2-3% mortgages to put their house on the market.

It's counterintuitive, but i think it is correct.

Also, Trump didn't appoint Warsh to raise rates. If you want to make some money, bet on no rate hike.

I also think this is going to cause the market to keep reaching record highs through mid-terms. It's already undervalued compared to relative time periods of the past 2 years. That is, you are getting more earrings for your price, on the SPX, that at any point in the last 2 years. Watch out above. Iran is the wild card, but they are getting their *** kicked right now.
Click to expand...

I actually completely agree with you on the rates. They should remain unchanged at the next meeting. We haven't seen any data that tells me they need to be increased right now. Should be good to get another month of data before making any changes.

I also totally agree on the markets. SPX seems to be at a great valuation right now. Maybe even undervalued for the first time in quite some time. Earnings have been stellar.

I do, however, disagree with you on your comment on the housing market. Housing market has been pretty flat for the last 2-3 years and we are officially in a buyers market right now with a 9.3 month supply. Not to mention, we are heading into the slow time of year for real estate. I actually see this as one of the weak areas in the economy right now and we might even start seeing valuations drop. Wanna know what will keep people from putting their houses on the market? A buyers market with a 10% loss in valuation.

Hold rates and lets hope we see inflation come down throughout the rest of the year. If we do, maybe the fed can be looking to cut rates next year to spark the real estate market a bit or we might be heading for another real estate mess.

U.S. Housing Market Dashboard 2026 | Live Market Snapshot

Monthly Supply of New Houses in the United States (MSACSR) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
 
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fatpiggy

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
26,634
25,598
113
Hawkedup said:
I actually completely agree with you on the rates. They should remain unchanged at the next meeting. We haven't seen any data that tells me they need to be increased right now. Should be good to get another month of data before making any changes.

I also totally agree on the markets. SPX seems to be at a great valuation right now. Maybe even undervalued for the first time in quite some time. Earnings have been stellar.

I do, however, disagree with you on your comment on the housing market. Housing market has been pretty flat for the last 2-3 years and we are officially in a buyers market right now with a 9.3 month supply. Not to mention, we are heading into the slow time of year for real estate. I actually see this as one of the weak areas in the economy right now and we might even start seeing valuations drop. Wanna know what will keep people from putting their houses on the market? A buyers market with a 10% loss in valuation.

Hold rates and lets hope we see inflation come down throughout the rest of the year. If we do, maybe the fed can be looking to cut rates next year to spark the real estate market a bit or we might be heading for another real estate mess.

U.S. Housing Market Dashboard 2026 | Live Market Snapshot

Monthly Supply of New Houses in the United States (MSACSR) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
Click to expand...
Real estate markets do seem to be localized. Still strong near me, but i understand a lot of places are under pressure.

Will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
 
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fatpiggy

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
26,634
25,598
113
Anon1750875978 said:
Iran getting their azzes kicked???

That's subjective.
I'd argue consumers think food and fuel prices are ShitStain's fault.
And Iran knows the political climate in America. They have no motivation to negotiate.

It's public knowledge that the percentage of voters profiting off the stock market is limited to <20% of the voting bloc.
November will be brutal for the GOP.
Click to expand...
It's estimated that oil flows are 75% of what they were pre-war. Iran has lost a lot of ability to cause chaos and thus are losing negotiating leverage quickly. Like it or not, they are getting their *** kicked. They will need a hail mary at this point. Don't bet against the US military.
 
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J

jimneffer

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Jan 27, 2026
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fatpiggy said:
It's estimated that oil flows are 75% of what they were pre-war. Iran has lost a lot of ability to cause chaos and thus are losing negotiating leverage quickly. Like it or not, they are getting their *** kicked. They will need a hail mary at this point. Don't bet against the US military.
Click to expand...
and what happens when we don't have our navy blockading the strait? or is that the long term plan now?

it's great we're only at a 25% reduction in activity now. but it's taken us 6 months - and a transition away from traditional military engagement to get there.
 
fatpiggy

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
26,634
25,598
113
jimneffer said:
and what happens when we don't have our navy blockading the strait? or is that the long term plan now?

it's great we're only at a 25% reduction in activity now. but it's taken us 6 months - and a transition away from traditional military engagement to get there.
Click to expand...
Im not arguing i agree with it. Im just arguing Iran is getting their *** kicked. And they are.
 
A

Anon1750875978

Heisman
Dec 26, 2018
8,460
14,431
113
fatpiggy said:
It's estimated that oil flows are 75% of what they were pre-war. Iran has lost a lot of ability to cause chaos and thus are losing negotiating leverage quickly. Like it or not, they are getting their *** kicked. They will need a hail mary at this point. Don't bet against the US military.
Click to expand...
And yet, the USS Abraham Lincoln couldn't land in port because Iran obliterated the resupply base.

Iran has been building resistance for 47 years, and an ill timed Trump excursion didn't change the regime, claim nuclear "dust", and now Hormuz is closed.

I'm getting tired of all this winning.
How bout you?
 
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