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Ely's Preseason Prognosticators - Mississippi State

W

Willow Grove Dawg

All-American
Nov 3, 2016
8,191
5,735
113
QuadrupleOption said:
W - ULM, TT
L - Alabama, LSU, Ok, Texas, Ole Miss
Toss ups - the rest.

So 4-8 to 7-5. We have to win every tossup for 7-5 so I'll go with 5-7. Hope I'm wrong.
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This is the correct answer. We need to win 4 out of @ Minnesota, @ USCE, Missouri, Vandy, & Auburn.
It is possible that if we win @ Minnesota & @ USCE - this team manages to get to 7
It is also possible that if we lost both @ Minnesota & @ USCE - it ends 3-9
More likely we split @ Minnesota & @USCE - the season is just a grind because there is not a clear path to 6 & Lebby hangs around till Thanksgiving.
I think it is impossible to overstate the importance of those two games to our season
 
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BossDawg78

BossDawg78

All-Conference
Jan 25, 2015
3,917
1,163
113
Deltaduckhunter said:
Even in his first year where we didn't win anything of consequence until the egg bowl, the stadium was filled up and fan support was high.
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There was noticeable improvement in the team also, and Mullen was rotating two QBs who arguably had no business being in the SEC. Almost beat LSU to go to a bowl. A coach that even KINDA knows what he's doing can turn things around in the first year. It doesn't take three years for a head coach to get things going. If he hasn't figured it out by now, he just doesn't get it. That's why I'm incredibly pessimistic about Lebby and the team this year.
 
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I

Indndawg

Senior
Nov 16, 2005
7,037
559
113
dawgstudent said:
DateOpponent
Sept. 5LOUISIANA-MONROE
Sept. 12at Minnesota
Sept. 19at South Carolina
Sept. 26MISSOURI
Oct. 3ALABAMA
Oct. 10Open Date
Oct. 17at LSU
Oct. 24OKLAHOMA
Oct. 31at Texas
Nov. 7VANDERBILT
Nov. 14AUBURN
Nov. 21TENNESSEE TECH
Nov. 28at Ole Miss

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2-10
 
P

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
59,614
30,289
113
BossDawg78 said:
There was noticeable improvement in the team also, and Mullen was rotating two QBs who arguably had no business being in the SEC. Almost beat LSU to go to a bowl. A coach that even KINDA knows what he's doing can turn things around in the first year. It doesn't take three years for a head coach to get things going. If he hasn't figured it out by now, he just doesn't get it. That's why I'm incredibly pessimistic about Lebby and the team this year.
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The 2 best coaches we've had in the last 50 years were Mullen and Sherrill. With both, you could immediately see the improvement and it was obvious. None of this still trying to convince people they were the right coach heading into year 3.
 
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golferdog

golferdog

Senior
Jan 1, 2024
1,205
941
113
Willow Grove Dawg said:
This is the correct answer. We need to win 4 out of @ Minnesota, @ USCE, Missouri, Vandy, & Auburn.
It is possible that if we win @ Minnesota & @ USCE - this team manages to get to 7
It is also possible that if we lost both @ Minnesota & @ USCE - it ends 3-9
More likely we split @ Minnesota & @USCE - the season is just a grind because there is not a clear path to 6 & Lebby hangs around till Thanksgiving.
I think it is impossible to overstate the importance of those two games to our season
Click to expand...
Agree, MN, SC & I think Mizzou are the keys to the season imo. Win 2-3 of those and we can get to 6. Lose 2-3 and we're looking at another losing season. We are losing to Bama, OU, LSU & TX so have to start fast, then try to win 2-3 more of AU, Vandy, TT, and OM. It's possible, but not easy, even for an improved team. We're still at the bottom of the league in talent, and still very inexperienced at head coach.
 
BossDawg78

BossDawg78

All-Conference
Jan 25, 2015
3,917
1,163
113
patdog said:
The 2 best coaches we've had in the last 50 years were Mullen and Sherrill. With both, you could immediately see the improvement and it was obvious. None of this still trying to convince people they were the right coach heading into year 3.
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I'm probably just ignorant, but I can't think of a coach that improved his team just a little tiny bit each year until having marked success in the third or fourth year. Either the team makes an immediate, noticeable improvement in year one, or the coach just continues to kick the can down the road with some mild successes here and there. That turns out to be an illusion rather than actual progress more often than not it seems.
 
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A

Anon1774962825

Sophomore
Mar 31, 2026
102
108
33
BossDawg78 said:
I'm probably just ignorant, but I can't think of a coach that improved his team just a little tiny bit each year until having marked success in the third or fourth year. Either the team makes an immediate, noticeable improvement in year one, or the coach just continues to kick the can down the road with some mild successes here and there. That turns out to be an illusion rather than actual progress more often than not it seems.
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Frank Beamer, Art Briles, Bill Snyder, Dabo, Barry Alvarez, Mark Stoops, Mike Gundy, Kyle Whittingham, Kirk Ferentz
 
BossDawg78

BossDawg78

All-Conference
Jan 25, 2015
3,917
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Anon1774962825 said:
Frank Beamer, Art Briles, Bill Snyder, Dabo, Barry Alvarez, Mark Stoops, Mike Gundy, Kyle Whittingham, Kirk Ferentz
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Dabo? He went 9-5 and a bowl his second year. Gundy went 7-6 and a bowl his second year. Whittingham took Utah to a bowl for the first eight years he was there. The rest I'll kind of give you. Ferenz could at least get a few conference wins in his second year and beat Penn State and #12 Northwestern, too. Beamer had a good run at Murray State before going to Virginia Tech. Briles had a good run at Houston before Baylor, and he had decent wins in his second year against Texas A&M and a conference win over Iowa State. Alvarez had a couple of conference wins in his second year. Conference wins as the conferences stand now, I should clarify. I guess I'll give you Stoops.

But Lebby has struggled to get ONE conference win against a terrible Arkansas team. The way he managed the end of the Texas game still makes me sick, and we have looked like complete imbeciles in many of the games. It's just obvious there are no real improvements surrounding the team. But I really, REALLY do hope I'm wrong this year, but I just have a bad feeling.
 
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A

Anon1774962825

Sophomore
Mar 31, 2026
102
108
33
BossDawg78 said:
Dabo? He went 9-5 and a bowl his second year. Gundy went 7-6 and a bowl his second year. Whittingham took Utah to a bowl for the first eight years he was there. The rest I'll kind of give you. Ferenz could at least get a few conference wins in his second year and beat Penn State and #12 Northwestern, too. Beamer had a good run at Murray State before going to Virginia Tech. Briles had a good run at Houston before Baylor, and he had decent wins in his second year against Texas A&M and a conference win over Iowa State. Alvarez had a couple of conference wins in his second year. Conference wins as the conferences stand now, I should clarify. I guess I'll give you Stoops.

But Lebby has struggled to get ONE conference win against a terrible Arkansas team. The way he managed the end of the Texas game still makes me sick, and we have looked like complete imbeciles in many of the games. It's just obvious there are no real improvements surrounding the team. But I really, REALLY do hope I'm wrong this year, but I just have a bad feeling.
Click to expand...
Dabo won 6 games in his second full year as head coach. He took over halfway through the year in 08. He got worse in his second full year and toiled in the 6-8 win range during his first four years. Gundy improved by 3 games from year 1 to year 2. Same as Lebby. You’re wrong and don’t know what you’re talking about.
 
Villagedawg

Villagedawg

All-Conference
Nov 16, 2005
2,358
2,377
113
patdog said:
The 2 best coaches we've had in the last 50 years were Mullen and Sherrill. With both, you could immediately see the improvement and it was obvious. None of this still trying to convince people they were the right coach heading into year 3.
Click to expand...
This is true. Hadn’t thought of it that way. Sitting in the stands before that ‘91 Egg Bowl, I KNEW we were about to hand them their ***. Can’t remember last time I felt that.
 
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BossDawg78

BossDawg78

All-Conference
Jan 25, 2015
3,917
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Anon1774962825 said:
Dabo won 6 games in his second full year as head coach. He took over halfway through the year in 08. He got worse in his second full year and toiled in the 6-8 win range during his first four years. Gundy improved by 3 games from year 1 to year 2. Same as Lebby. You’re wrong and don’t know what you’re talking about.
Click to expand...

And Gundy went to a bowl and won it his second year. Throwing Dabo in that bunch is just absurd 😅.
 
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P

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
59,614
30,289
113
Villagedawg said:
This is true. Hadn’t thought of it that way. Sitting in the stands before that ‘91 Egg Bowl, I KNEW we were about to hand them their ***. Can’t remember last time I felt that.
Click to expand...
I remember Jackie’s first game. We beat Cal Fullerton (or someone similar) something like 63-7. I was thinking dang, we usually beat teams like this by maybe 20 points. It’s a new day.
 
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A

Anon1774962825

Sophomore
Mar 31, 2026
102
108
33
BossDawg78 said:
And Gundy went to a bowl and won it his second year. Throwing Dabo in that bunch is just absurd 😅.
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The premise was coaches who took over and only got better in small amounts from year 1 to 2 were usually not better in the long run. You’re literally making sh*t up because you don’t have a point. None of those coaches got way better in year 2 compared to what Lebby did in year 2. None of them took over a team with no NIL money in an era where that matters more than anything either. Lebby did not have the same talent level as a starting point when he took over. He improved 3 games from year 1 to 2. Same as the rest of these coaches or better. Does not mean he is gonna end up like these great coaches. Just means the original point was baseless and based on pure misery rather than anything factual.
 
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P

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
59,614
30,289
113
Anon1774962825 said:
The premise was coaches who took over and only got better in small amounts from year 1 to 2 were usually not better in the long run. You’re literally making sh*t up because you don’t have a point. None of those coaches got way better in year 2 compared to what Lebby did in year 2. None of them took over a team with no NIL money in an era where that matters more than anything either. Lebby did not have the same talent level as a starting point when he took over. He improved 3 games from year 1 to 2. Same as the rest of these coaches or better. Does not mean he is gonna end up like these great coaches. Just means the original point was baseless and based on pure misery rather than anything factual.
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By far the vast percentage of coaches who don't do much in the first two years get fired within 5 years. Of course there are exceptions, but that's the minority.
 
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A

Anon1774962825

Sophomore
Mar 31, 2026
102
108
33
patdog said:
By far the vast percentage of coaches who don't do much in the first two years get fired within 5 years. Of course there are exceptions, but that's the minority.
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Most coaches in general get fired because most of them are not successful enough for the fanbase. The ones who are successful to make it to a second contract have a mixed bag of results on how big the jump is from year one to 2.
 
D

Deltaduckhunter

Freshman
Feb 25, 2017
69
70
18
I'm not ready to throw the towel in on Lebby until I see how he does with a competent DC. With a marginally better defense, we would have beat Texas, Tennessee and Florida last year, which would have put us at 8-1 and a top 15 team coming out of the Arkansas game. I don't disagree that his game time decisions cost us at least two of those games, but with a decent defense it wouldn't have even come down to that.
 
BossDawg78

BossDawg78

All-Conference
Jan 25, 2015
3,917
1,163
113
Anon1774962825 said:
The premise was coaches who took over and only got better in small amounts from year 1 to 2 were usually not better in the long run. You’re literally making sh*t up because you don’t have a point. None of those coaches got way better in year 2 compared to what Lebby did in year 2. None of them took over a team with no NIL money in an era where that matters more than anything either. Lebby did not have the same talent level as a starting point when he took over. He improved 3 games from year 1 to 2. Same as the rest of these coaches or better. Does not mean he is gonna end up like these great coaches. Just means the original point was baseless and based on pure misery rather than anything factual.
Click to expand...

Ok, Jeff. You're just incapable of grasping the point I see. Move along now.
 
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