Willie's Mid Summer Crystal Ball
- Thread starter Acacia
- Start date
It is deliciously ironic that you have a typo in your post pointing out my typo.
Considering what has been going on in the world.........It feels like last year was 10 years ago
How in the heck are all these teams scoring those high numbers? Is that even possible?
Concentration of talent. Willie discussed the reasons on Baschmania today.
It’s the reason we’re going to see way more 8-10 AA teams. If the portal was available 10 years ago or so, do you think we’d be running out a starter who would go 5-18? No, the staff would get a solution.
Imagine how many points those Taylor/Ruth teams would have scored if the team wasn’t being carried by 6 guys
Imagine how many points those Zain/Jason/Bo teams would've scored with a portaled full-year or multi-year 125 after Cruiseliner Nick bailed, instead of the series of spring semester band-aids.
It is possible, but not probable. Overall teams score a little over 1400 points. The top 8 teams have never gotten close to 900 of them.
@WillieTheBrain , I've mentioned before that I like these Crystal Ball projections way more than rankings. Don't take offense to this, as I'm just curious. It feels like in your earlier Crystal Ball projections, you tend to pick the guys with a heavy placement on previous results (i.e. Robideau over Duke). When it gets closer to March, you get a little more bold with your predictions, which is what I love about these. I'm just curious if I'm reading it correctly or I'm just off my rocker?
I feel the same way. Closer to the season once he has seen guys again he would be less likely to treat it as a ranking (like how at 125 the top 4 is exactly the same in the same order)
that's a good observation and yes i think that's true.
in the summer i don't see much reason to deviate from NCAA results (outside of some outlier placings). But as the season goes on and we have some more insight into what the guys are THIS year, i buck the consensus a little more.
it's funny that at the moment OKST fans are on tilt that i 'maxxed' PSU. well....outside of Cole and (World Champion Ono) they all already placed that high and multiple times
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that's a good observation and yes i think that's true.
in the summer i don't see much reason to deviate from NCAA results (outside of some outlier placings). But as the season goes on and we have some more insight into what the guys are THIS year, i buck the consensus a little more.
it's funny that at the moment OKST fans are on tilt that i 'maxxed' PSU. well....outside of Cole and (World Champion Ono) they all already placed that high and multiple times
This will come off as arrogant, and I've been on the other side of it as a fan, but, every wrestling fan who isn't a PSU wrestling fan is going to root for their demise. It goes with the territory when you are dominating at the level they are dominating at. When Oklahoma State fans are calling Barr-Merrill a "toss-up", you know that they are truly reaching. I've said it before and I'll say it again, though I always root for PSU guys and enjoy the dominance, I truly miss the excitement of Quentin beating Kilgore to clinch and Bo winning things for PSU during the finals.
Willie with his knowledge, makes informed projections, and sticks his neck out = Good
Wrestlestat just might get a good ball park by the end of the year when enough matches have been wrestled, ELO chess lacks a recency bias and head-to-head gets watered down = mediocre
Flo and pretty much everyone else - takes no chances and flip flops all over the place as incoming studs start beating ranked guys = Pretty much useless early season and downright obvious later in the season.
Wrestlestat just might get a good ball park by the end of the year when enough matches have been wrestled, ELO chess lacks a recency bias and head-to-head gets watered down = mediocre
Flo and pretty much everyone else - takes no chances and flip flops all over the place as incoming studs start beating ranked guys = Pretty much useless early season and downright obvious later in the season.
Sorry to break it to them but 165-197 is a wood chipper for the Cowboys against us. 14 points minimum at those 4 weights for us in a dual.
Probably not close to being the right thread, but does anyone know if there’s any smoke to Vito to NLWC or just passing thru?
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I have no idea about Vito to NLWC, but, a lot of these guys regularly seek out other people/clubs to get reps in with.
Remember when Geno Petriashvili was in town? Great opportunity for him to get some different training partners than the normal guys in his home town.
I knew a lot of international guys would do this. I didn’t think we saw it much domestically though.
probably happens a lot more than I realize.
Over the years there have been a ton of non NLWC guys spend time in Lorenzo.
I miss it too but my heart can't take that **** every year
exactly.
if you want to press into team scores being unrealistic, please cite what individual placements are unrealistic.
i know the odds of the top teams all batting a thousand (which is basically what came out in the wash in this iteration) is highly unlikely, but it's really not the point of the exercise (which is weight class projections).
Besides PSU running away with another NCAA title, seeing Iowa fall out of the Top 10 would be absolutely delicious ...
Not all fan bases can be as rational and level headed as Penn State fans.that's a good observation and yes i think that's true.
in the summer i don't see much reason to deviate from NCAA results (outside of some outlier placings). But as the season goes on and we have some more insight into what the guys are THIS year, i buck the consensus a little more.
it's funny that at the moment OKST fans are on tilt that i 'maxxed' PSU. well....outside of Cole and (World Champion Ono) they all already placed that high and multiple times
of course it does. not every Top 5 kid places Top 5. literally happens every year.
David Carr comes in as the 1 seed, loses to Hunter Willits and takes 3rd.
No one in their right mind would have that. and it happens constantly. the projections are sound. the odds of all the top teams batting a thousand is not likely.
David Carr comes in as the 1 seed, loses to Hunter Willits and takes 3rd.
No one in their right mind would have that. and it happens constantly. the projections are sound. the odds of all the top teams batting a thousand is not likely.
OMG...clicked on this thread and this was the first post I read. I initially thought you were talking about OkState's new 174 lbr.... had to read it several times before I realized you were referring to the PSU wrestling complex.
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