The Athletic with their College QB Tiers…

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
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I've read repeatedly our best position, the one we need not worry about, is QB. And we're Tier 4 there?

Yikes.
Tier 4 out of 7. I'd say that's about right. In fact, he's the very definition of Tier 4 (at least the first part of the definition).

Some of the stars of tomorrow, like inexperienced QBs who coaches believe in but lack a proven resume,
Edit to add their comments, which I think are pretty much spot on too:
Taylor showed an appealing skill set in his two starts as a true freshman for the Bulldogs. His size and running ability make him a chore to tackle. If he can throw it well enough to make defenses fear him, he has star potential.

“I think he’ll blow up in the SEC,” an FBS personnel staffer said. “He has some juice. Will he be as clinical as he needs to be and protect the ball and put it in the right spot? I don’t know, but intangibles-wise, traits-wise, he has everything you want.”

Said an SEC assistant: “Really raw as a passer but really athletic, really good kid. … I think he’s gotten better as a passer. You’re not going to survive being a runner in this league very long unless you’re Cam Newton and 250 pounds.”
 
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patdog

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Kamario's sample size is still small. Hopefully next year he's a tier 2. My fear is the injury bug. They're going to be tackling him low because of his size.
Injury, passing accuracy, and decision making are the concerns. Running ability, leadership and intangibles are very very good. He could be a Tier 1 QB next year or stay in Tier 4. Which even Tier 4 is above average for MSU quarterbacks historically.
Edit - Arm strength is also very very good.
 
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BoDawg.sixpack

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Injury, passing accuracy, and decision making are the concerns. Running ability, leadership and intangibles are very very good. He could be a Tier 1 QB next year or stay in Tier 4. Which even Tier 4 is above average for MSU quarterbacks historically.
AJ Swann has taken 4x more snaps in D1 football than KT. I don't think it could be understated how important he is to this team going into this season. He may be the most impactful player on the whole team before it's all said and done. Can you imagine having a True Fr or a RFr backing up KT with this O line?
 
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patdog

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AJ Swann has taken 4x more snaps in D1 football than KT. I don't think it could be understated how important he is to this team going into this season. He may be the most impactful player on the whole team before it's all said and done. Can you imagine having a True Fr or a RFr backing up KT with this O line?
I hope we don't see him much, but yeah. For once, I don't think it would be a total disaster if the starting QB went down.
 

PrimeDog

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There are a lot of people putting a lot of faith in Taylor being some sort of Cam Newton clone.
I’d take 2024 LaNorris Sellers. KT had nearly as many rushing yards and more rushing TDs in limited time than Sellers in his breakout season.

If Fluff is healthy and any production from the backups, KT doesn’t need to run for 1200 yards. If he could throw 20 td, run for 10 and keep the INTs below 12 (assuming he plays the entire season) then it would be a great first year and still would be a top 5 -10 performance for a pitiful MSU offensive record book.
 

Darryl Steight

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I've read repeatedly our best position, the one we need not worry about, is QB. And we're Tier 4 there?

Yikes.
It's not as bad as that sounds, like patdog said. 4th tier means he's ranked #32 QB - pretty damn good for us historically, especially considering the experience on his resume up to this point. And right behind #31 Bryce Underwood, who was the consensus #1 prospect out of high school.

For comparisons sake, Blake Shapen was listed as #58 last year, while the Anointed One Austin Williams - the vaunted olemiss superstar wunderkind, was listed at #37.

By the way - Trinny Cham, who they have ranked #1 on this list, was not on the list of 136 last year at all. So it's all really just a big guessing game for clickbait anyway.
 
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OG Goat Holder

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I'd say more Lamar Jackson than Cam Newton, but point taken.
Funny you mention this, I was talking about this the other day with some folks.

Taylor is 6-4, 240. Cam was 6-6, 260. So clearly not the exact same type player, Cam bigger and more durable.

Tim Tebow, Nick Fitzgerald are actually more comparable, in terms of size.

Then you have RG3 (6-2, 220) and Lamar Jackson (6-2/3, but only weighs 210 or so). He's not really comparable to them either.

So I don't think anybody really knows. Could he be Josh Allen? He's 6-5, 240. Maybe that's the more realistic comp. Either way he's got to get more accurate, and that was Allen's issue. But that doesn't happen all the time. Most of the time you're either accurate or you aren't.
 

Darryl Steight

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Funny you mention this, I was talking about this the other day with some folks.

Taylor is 6-4, 240. Cam was 6-6, 260. So clearly not the exact same type player, Cam bigger and more durable.

Tim Tebow, Nick Fitzgerald are actually more comparable, in terms of size.

Then you have RG3 (6-2, 220) and Lamar Jackson (6-2/3, but only weighs 210 or so). He's not really comparable to them either.

So I don't think anybody really knows. Could he be Josh Allen? He's 6-5, 240. Maybe that's the more realistic comp. Either way he's got to get more accurate, and that was Allen's issue. But that doesn't happen all the time. Most of the time you're either accurate or you aren't.
I just meant he reminds me more of the dangerous runner with speed and some wiggle, easy fluid passing motion, and body-style of Lamar... at least much more than Cam to me. Nick is probably a good comp too.
 

lazlow

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Kamario's sample size is still small. Hopefully next year he's a tier 2. My fear is the injury bug. They're going to be tackling him low because of his size.
In HS he was pretty consistent 57-59% COMP. (overall - 482/819 = %58.8). Last year he was 43/77 = 55.8% . Statistically, I don't need a bigger sample size to know that he's a ~ 60% passer at best (90-95% CI). The question is, does Lebby modify the play-calling/play-book in favor of routes that he has a higher probability of completing. But... deep-ball accuracy is where Broyle's offense pays-out.
 

BoDawg.sixpack

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In HS he was pretty consistent 57-59% COMP. (overall - 482/819 = %58.8). Last year he was 43/77 = 55.8% . Statistically, I don't need a bigger sample size to know that he's a ~ 60% passer at best (90-95% CI). The question is, does Lebby modify the play-calling/play-book in favor of routes that he has a higher probability of completing. But... deep-ball accuracy is where Broyle's offense pays-out.
60% would probably be his ceiling, but we don't know what his floor is going to be , especially within conference. He's dealing with a different set of variables in college than he was used to in high school, so it's reasonable to think that there will be a statistically significant difference in his completion ratio and probably his touchdown to interception ratio. We don't know what that will be just going off of 150 snaps in his first season. Will he be tier 2 next year? We don't have enough data to predict that.
 

patdog

Heisman
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60% would probably be his ceiling, but we don't know what his floor is going to be , especially within conference. He's dealing with a different set of variables in college than he was used to in high school, so it's reasonable to think that there will be a statistically significant difference in his completion ratio and probably his touchdown to interception ratio. We don't know what that will be just going off of 150 snaps in his first season. Will he be tier 2 next year? We don't have enough data to predict that.
He was 55% as a true FR and every pass he threw was vs an SEC or a 9-win ACC team. I think that's about his floor. Ceiling? Who knows? Maybe it's 60% as you say. Maybe it's 65%. He's getting more & better coaching in the 7 months since last season ended than he got in his entire life going into last season.
 
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lazlow

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60% would probably be his ceiling, but we don't know what his floor is going to be , especially within conference. He's dealing with a different set of variables in college than he was used to in high school, so it's reasonable to think that there will be a statistically significant difference in his completion ratio and probably his touchdown to interception ratio. We don't know what that will be just going off of 150 snaps in his first season. Will he be tier 2 next year? We don't have enough data to predict that.
I'm not saying that I know, I'm just saying that I can estimate the population based off of a sample of 150 snaps.
 

OG Goat Holder

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The question is, does Lebby modify the play-calling/play-book
Why do MSU fans consistently want our coaches to do this? Adapting is one thing, but asking the coach you hired to NOT do what he was hired to do?

If we're going to keep this up, and we want to have a running QB no matter what, perhaps we should stop hiring pass-first coaches.
 
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BoDawg.sixpack

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He was 55% as a true FR and every pass he threw was vs an SEC or a 9-win ACC team. I think that's about his floor. Ceiling? Who knows? Maybe it's 60% as you say. Maybe it's 65%. He's getting more & better coaching in the 7 months since last season ended than he got in his entire life going into last season.
Maybe it is 60%. But I doubt it's 65. We've only had 2 QBs in the last 30 years who proved capable of completing of 65% or higher and 6 who reached 60%. Relf got 60% in 2011 and I do think KT has more overall talent.

But if this comes from restricting the playbook to easy reads and pre snap checks that's going to make it easier for opponents to scheme our offense once word gets out.
 

lazlow

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Why do MSU fans consistently want our coaches to do this? Adapting is one thing, but asking the coach you hired to NOT do what he was hired to do?

If we're going to keep this up, and we want to have a running QB no matter what, perhaps we should stop hiring pass-first coaches.
Remember how Croom said we were going to run the WCO with zero WCO personnel? Do you remember how that turned-out? Lebby came in a lot like croom, accustomed to an NFL roster and didn't know what to do with a bunch of kids that weren't going to play on Sundays.

And for the record I don't give a 17 how he does it. I'm talking about % comp. That often (not always) translates to points which translates to W's. Its Kind of like OBP % in baseball. Do I give a 17 how you get on base?....Pete?
 

patdog

Heisman
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Maybe it is 60%. But I doubt it's 65. We've only had 2 QBs in the last 30 years who proved capable of completing of 65% or higher and 6 who reached 60%. Relf got 60% in 2011 and I do think KT has more overall talent.

But if this comes from restricting the playbook to easy reads and pre snap checks that's going to make it easier for opponents to scheme our offense once word gets out.
We'll see. Completion percentages just keep going up. I can remember when 55% was considered good. It wouldn't surprise me to see him complete 65% in a season before he's finished. It also wouldn't surprise me to see him in the 50s every year either.
 

tired

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Arm talent, KT is one of the best I've seen out of MS HS. I've seen my share. If he gets the accuracy down, it'll be a fun season. If he's hitting around 65% he'll be the best to ever come thru here.

Good thing is he's always looking to throw first. Hopefully the OL & WRs are ready.
 
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ZombieKissinger

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They’re prioritizing college experience with their rankings/tiers, and from what I see he’s the top QB labeled as “new starter”
 
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patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
59,219
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They’re prioritizing college experience with their rankings/tiers, and from what I see he’s the top QB labeled as “new starter”
As they should. We just don’t know how good of a passer or decision maker he will be. Best case, he could be better than Dak. Seriously. Worst case, he’s another Relf or Fitzgerald. Which ain’t bad. At all.