This fall the 'Doah could be about as unpredictable and evenly-matched as it has been in years. For a long stretch, Riverheads dominated, with Stuarts Draft challenging on occasion. But last season it was all about Wilson and the new kid on the block, Alleghany. Then when playoff time rolled around, Buffalo Gap caught fire and advanced further than anybody else, coming up barely short in the state semi-finals.
So what will happen this year? As I see it, four of those five teams were led last year by superstars, and I believe all four are now graduated. (Correct me if I am wrong and have aged any of them before their time.) Therefore for those four teams, their seasons may come down to how much they will miss those team leaders. So to analyze this year's race, the questions to ask may be.....Can Wilson do it again without Keyvon Jones? Does Alleghany have anybody waiting in the wings to replace Des Jordan? Can Baylor Graber step up and have a strong enough senior season to make up for SD graduating Derrick Moore? and did Isaac Goff carry BG all by himself through the playoffs or is there a dangerous team returning out there?
Notice those questions do not mention Riverheads. That is because the Big Red used more of a team approach last year and did not have the headline-grabbing stud that these other teams did. Instead it was more of a balanced attack. They finished fourth in the league behind Wilson, Alleghany and Draft, and then got knocked out of the playoffs by a monster performance by Goff. To some people, their 8-4 overall record was a disappointment, but many other schools would love to have that record any year.
For this season, it is logical to assume that those five teams will factor in to things in one order or another, but you just KNOW it won't be that easy. Someone will slide down the ladder a bit and even more likely, somebody else from last year's "bottom four" will put it all together and start to make their own move. (Stay tuned because I think I know who that team will be!)
So even though we are six weeks or so away from opening night, here are my predictions for this year's district race..........
1) Wilson. Last year, Jones was pressed into heavier duty when Podgorski went down early with a season-ending injury. So if he comes back and has the year he should, then Wilson should be able to pick up where it left off last year. I just think that team, and for that matter their entire athletic program, is on such an emotional high that they will not have a down year in any sport for quite some time.
2) Riverheads. Of course it is my job to see the Gladiator glass as half-full all the time. But there are legitimate reasons to expect a good season for the Big Red. First of all, they return a solid group of running backs and an experienced quarterback. Also they had an outstanding JV team last year. The schedule also works in their favor as they get both Wilson and Stuarts Draft at home this season. Considering that two, or even three losses may be enough for a runner-up spot, I like the Big Red's chances.
3) Stuarts Draft. Graber has been "grabbing" major attention since his eighth-grade year. Big brother is gone now and as mentioned, the Cougars have to replace Moore. So depending on who else returns, they might just have the horses to win the whole thing. Getting Wilson at home late in the season could be the game that decides it for everybody.
4) Alleghany. If anybody is going to miss, I mean REALLY MISS, last year's superstar, I think it will be the Cougars. However, he had to have had quality receivers to throw all those passes to, so if some or most of them are back, and if there is anybody else out there who can even halfway throw the ball, they will be in the mix. Again the schedule will be key. They have to travel to both SD and Wilson this time.
5) Waynesboro. See I told you I would throw you a curve. Things have started to turn around over there and if you do not already know the name Blair in relation to Little Giant football, you will learn it by the end of the season. I could be dead wrong, but I think this is a game you can no longer look at and automatically put in the win column.
6) Buffalo Gap. The Bison playoff run last season was amazing and they came darn close to making it to Salem. (By the way, be sure to read the other thread on here about the playoff changes for Salem this year.) But that run by the Gap was all about Goff and I am not sure they have enough to replace him to be a contender this year.
7) Staunton. The Storm was an odd bunch last year. They went out to Alleghany and almost beat the Cougars, but then lost other games they should not have. The athletes are always there, but something seems to be missing in the chemistry or poise departments to keep them from being the team they could be.
8) Fort Defiance. The Indians had high hopes last season but injuries sidelined them early in the season and they never really recovered. Also if my memory serves, their JV team struggled mightily last year. So I don't see, or at least I don't remember, anything that makes me think they can make a big move this year.
9) Rockbridge. Hats off to the Wildcats for having a very nice facility and their fan support seemed admirable, despite their winless season. Hopefully they can improve this year, but it may take more than one season to find whatever is missing down there.
So what will happen this year? As I see it, four of those five teams were led last year by superstars, and I believe all four are now graduated. (Correct me if I am wrong and have aged any of them before their time.) Therefore for those four teams, their seasons may come down to how much they will miss those team leaders. So to analyze this year's race, the questions to ask may be.....Can Wilson do it again without Keyvon Jones? Does Alleghany have anybody waiting in the wings to replace Des Jordan? Can Baylor Graber step up and have a strong enough senior season to make up for SD graduating Derrick Moore? and did Isaac Goff carry BG all by himself through the playoffs or is there a dangerous team returning out there?
Notice those questions do not mention Riverheads. That is because the Big Red used more of a team approach last year and did not have the headline-grabbing stud that these other teams did. Instead it was more of a balanced attack. They finished fourth in the league behind Wilson, Alleghany and Draft, and then got knocked out of the playoffs by a monster performance by Goff. To some people, their 8-4 overall record was a disappointment, but many other schools would love to have that record any year.
For this season, it is logical to assume that those five teams will factor in to things in one order or another, but you just KNOW it won't be that easy. Someone will slide down the ladder a bit and even more likely, somebody else from last year's "bottom four" will put it all together and start to make their own move. (Stay tuned because I think I know who that team will be!)
So even though we are six weeks or so away from opening night, here are my predictions for this year's district race..........
1) Wilson. Last year, Jones was pressed into heavier duty when Podgorski went down early with a season-ending injury. So if he comes back and has the year he should, then Wilson should be able to pick up where it left off last year. I just think that team, and for that matter their entire athletic program, is on such an emotional high that they will not have a down year in any sport for quite some time.
2) Riverheads. Of course it is my job to see the Gladiator glass as half-full all the time. But there are legitimate reasons to expect a good season for the Big Red. First of all, they return a solid group of running backs and an experienced quarterback. Also they had an outstanding JV team last year. The schedule also works in their favor as they get both Wilson and Stuarts Draft at home this season. Considering that two, or even three losses may be enough for a runner-up spot, I like the Big Red's chances.
3) Stuarts Draft. Graber has been "grabbing" major attention since his eighth-grade year. Big brother is gone now and as mentioned, the Cougars have to replace Moore. So depending on who else returns, they might just have the horses to win the whole thing. Getting Wilson at home late in the season could be the game that decides it for everybody.
4) Alleghany. If anybody is going to miss, I mean REALLY MISS, last year's superstar, I think it will be the Cougars. However, he had to have had quality receivers to throw all those passes to, so if some or most of them are back, and if there is anybody else out there who can even halfway throw the ball, they will be in the mix. Again the schedule will be key. They have to travel to both SD and Wilson this time.
5) Waynesboro. See I told you I would throw you a curve. Things have started to turn around over there and if you do not already know the name Blair in relation to Little Giant football, you will learn it by the end of the season. I could be dead wrong, but I think this is a game you can no longer look at and automatically put in the win column.
6) Buffalo Gap. The Bison playoff run last season was amazing and they came darn close to making it to Salem. (By the way, be sure to read the other thread on here about the playoff changes for Salem this year.) But that run by the Gap was all about Goff and I am not sure they have enough to replace him to be a contender this year.
7) Staunton. The Storm was an odd bunch last year. They went out to Alleghany and almost beat the Cougars, but then lost other games they should not have. The athletes are always there, but something seems to be missing in the chemistry or poise departments to keep them from being the team they could be.
8) Fort Defiance. The Indians had high hopes last season but injuries sidelined them early in the season and they never really recovered. Also if my memory serves, their JV team struggled mightily last year. So I don't see, or at least I don't remember, anything that makes me think they can make a big move this year.
9) Rockbridge. Hats off to the Wildcats for having a very nice facility and their fan support seemed admirable, despite their winless season. Hopefully they can improve this year, but it may take more than one season to find whatever is missing down there.
