Probably Gestapo related but, best chance for wins are
- Thread starter Called3rdstrikedawg
- Start date
My chances of a win by game are:
ULM- 85%
MN- 55%.
USCe- 40%
MO- 40%
BAMA- 15%
LSU-20%
OK- 30%
UT-10%
VANDY-55% Win
Auburn-45% Win
TennTech-99% Win
ole miss- 30%
I got us at 5.24 which is optimistic based on the Vegas over/under win total of 4.5.
We have to be 3-1 worst case after the Missouri game to have a chance of getting to 6-7. There is world in which we start 4-0 & finish 5-7. If we can start 3-1 or 4-0, we should have enough momentum to beat Vandy and/or Auburn. I so wish UPIG was on our 2026 schedule.
ULM- 85%
MN- 55%.
USCe- 40%
MO- 40%
BAMA- 15%
LSU-20%
OK- 30%
UT-10%
VANDY-55% Win
Auburn-45% Win
TennTech-99% Win
ole miss- 30%
I got us at 5.24 which is optimistic based on the Vegas over/under win total of 4.5.
We have to be 3-1 worst case after the Missouri game to have a chance of getting to 6-7. There is world in which we start 4-0 & finish 5-7. If we can start 3-1 or 4-0, we should have enough momentum to beat Vandy and/or Auburn. I so wish UPIG was on our 2026 schedule.
Last edited:
What makes you think we're going to beat ULM ?
So 6-6. I can see it. We extend Heavy Lebby and go 3-9 in 2027. The Miss Stake way.
BAMA through OK should be no more than 5% each. That’s murderers row and by time we get to OK, it won’t matter if they aren’t as good as Bama or LSU. We’ll be banged up and have no momentum. This schedule is not kind. Would be nice if they weren’t all together like that.
This feels reasonable, neither too optimistic nor pessimistic. However, these aren't independent events, so the chances we start out 4-0 aren't 7%, they're about 20-25%.
99% Tennessee Tech
90% Louisiana Monroe
60% @ Minnesota
50% Auburn
40% Missouri
40% Vanderbilt
33% @ South Carolina
20% Oklahoma
15% @ Ole Miss
10% Alabama
10% @ LSU
5% @ Texas
99% Tennessee Tech
90% Louisiana Monroe
60% @ Minnesota
50% Auburn
40% Missouri
40% Vanderbilt
33% @ South Carolina
20% Oklahoma
15% @ Ole Miss
10% Alabama
10% @ LSU
5% @ Texas
What are you basing these % on ? 55 at Minny and 53 vs Missouri ? Elite dogs math ?
Cuz Leach sucked for going 9-4 with no nil
Money.
I rolled the die. My statistics professor at State, unsurprisingly an Asian guy, taught me.
I’ll step in here and say this. We have more talent than Minn. I know for you hard to believe. But we do. Mizz is at home new QB retooling the OL and zero returning starters in defense. And not to mention who knows what Hardy is going to be.
SC is trending down. I really like us in that game and Auburn and Vandy are in rebuilds
He died. Move on. We didn’t fire him… he died. Move on. Stop comparing before NIL and the current state of football.. Leach was a good coach but…he died… we didn’t fire him.. move on. Anytime you post leach this or that it’s just dumb because…yep he died we didn’t fire him. Move on it’s been almost 4 years
Day game, new OC, lost portal tackles to injuries. ZA has had success against KBriles plus we know the ins and outs of the offense. I like our DL against there patch work OL. Not sure anyone has a better corners room than us in the SEC. We have improved on OL
Edit: Sorry 77, I posted almost the same thing without seeing your post. Damn, I'm agreeing with you for once....
You really need to let Leach go, he's been gone almost 4 years. The wife left town, the sons not on the coaching roster this year, wins and loses aren't his to claim or blame anymore, give it up
No worries. 85 really needs to read it multiple times. We all want to win we all enjoyed winning. Leach was a legend but even he had limitations and to act or post like we ran him off is just… well. Stupid.
85 you continuing to say Leach this or leach that isn’t comparable to the hear and now. Every person wants to win but this fans base is broken right now. I’m not saying Lebby is going to pull us out of the abyss that we have been in (personally I like this team this year) but continuing to post about “well sure was fun winning 7 and 8 games.” Well no **** Sherlock. But we didn’t run him off, he’s not at grand valley tech, we didn’t fire him, we didn’t ask him to retire. He 17n died… And another thing. Stop with the whole boosters and power players did this or that and ruined a good team in 23… most of that was ZA and we fired him as HC midway through the season, let’s also move on from that.
If we can go 7-6 (assuming we win a bowl game) then I'd be willing to agree that Lebby should be back.
IF State goes 6-6 and makes the Birmingham Bowl, the dang Stadium should be Full of State fans! I hear a lot of BS about supporting the team, but the fans don’t travel unless it is a destination trip or a major bowl. That ain’t support! Whatever Bowl State makes, IF, the fans need to show out and be there by the thousands if it is a reasonable distance.
Memphis, Birmingham, Nashville! No excuse not to have 15000-20000 plus. A Florida Bowl. 10000 to 15000. A major bowl not in playoffs, 20000 plus! A playoff bowl 35000!
Memphis, Birmingham, Nashville! No excuse not to have 15000-20000 plus. A Florida Bowl. 10000 to 15000. A major bowl not in playoffs, 20000 plus! A playoff bowl 35000!
I agree that we should beat Minnesota (although I only gave it a 60% chance because Fleck is a better coach than Lebby), and it's a very ominous sign for Lebby's future employment if we lose.
Hard to argue against Flecks record but they struggled last year with anyone with a heart beat and games they won against less talented teams was close. I don’t think they will be able to hold up against our speed. ASU was a better team last year by a lot than Minn and we are a lot better team this year than we were last year
No one here deserves our coach dying Damn dude get a grip. It happened we have to move on. We didn’t get it right with ZA, early signs are Lebby hasn’t gotten it right but let’s see how this year plays out. Holding on to leach and acting like we ran him off and that’s why we are in the space we are in is just dumb. You continue to be part of the problem. WE DIDNT FIRE HIM…HE DIED. STOP WITH THIS IDEA WE RAN HIM OFF
Games, any games, usually boil down to the lines. Is there any conference game on that schedule where we have the advantage on the offensive line? Not one. If we can steal one at Minnesota we MAY luck into 1 conference win, but it’s a long shot. Maybe Bandy or Auburn. I don’t think we win in Columbia, SC.
Why is everyone chalking up at South Carolina. They weren’t even as good as we were last season, they lost portal tackles to injuries and Kendal Briles as OC doesn’t scare me
I give us a 40 percent chance at Minnesota.
I can accept the talent argument in that game; however, I’m not sold on Lebby’s game management skills as you know.
Auburn is 50-50 for that same reason.
Probably 4 wins
I’d feel a lot better about our chances if Minnesota & South Carolina were at home. But we do get Auburn & Vandy at home so I guess we can’t complain too much.
