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D1 Baseball Field of 64 Projections - Final Version

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bluebooksandbluecups

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d1baseball.com

2026 NCAA Field Of 64 Projections: Final Edition • D1Baseball

Selection Day is almost here, and as usual, we have our final Field of 64 Projection for the postseason.
d1baseball.com d1baseball.com

Well, the guys at D1 moved us from #4 to #5 overnight…which feels a little like inside information because nothing Auburn did yesterday impacted their resume because…yes…they were already eliminated from their conference tournament. The “logic” used in the Nerdcast was Auburn’s record against “#1 seeds” which is perpetuated by the awarding of 7 regional sites to SEC teams.

Anyway, the difference between a #4 and a #5 is a bigger deal than some may realize, because it results in a completely different group of 4 potential #2 seeds being considered for the Chapel Hill regional.

At #5, our potential #2 seeds included the #25-28 seeds (Coastal, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Miami). We couldn’t host Miami because of conference affiliation, so D1 projects Coastal to come to Chapel Hill.

Had we been the #4 seed, we would have had one of the #29-32 seeds come to Chapel Hill. In D1’s mock, they would be Louisiana, Liberty, Missouri State or UVA (which, again, we couldn’t host because of a shared conference).

Just interesting that losing in our tourney final resulted in a team that had already lost in its conference tourney semis being placed ahead of us even though they’d been behind us in D1 mocks for a while now. Again, that feels a little like a tip someone at D1 might have gotten.
 
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unctarheel1984

unctarheel1984

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It has already been said that the SEC, ACC, and B1G champs will occupy the first three seeds. Now, let’s be serious here, what’s the chance UNC keeps the #4 seed, meaning the ACC has two of the top four and the SEC only one? That’s not gonna happen. UNC will get pushed down to #5, so you guys who claimed winning the ACC Title doesn’t matter need to eat some humble pie and learn that lesson because it does matter.
 
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HeelYeah2012

HeelYeah2012

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When #4 is the best we could realistically be, it feels like we are going to be disappointed if we are going to be ticked off with anything other than exactly #4.

The SEC has done too much winning in this tournament for the committee to place the second best ACC team ahead of the second best SEC team, in my opinion.
 
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heels2012

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TarHeelColby10 said:
The 3 and 4 seeds are as important if not more important to me than who the 2 is. You want a 4 seed that you can beat up pretty easy that doesn’t have a real #1 and a 3 that can really push the 2 seed and make both teams burn the #1 and top BP arms in the first game.
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Totally agree, especially regarding the difference in strength of the 4s and how it impacts Day 1 approach. Any sense of the 4s we’d like to see coming our way? I haven’t looked into those at all.
 
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premn

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unctarheel1984 said:
It has already been said that the SEC, ACC, and B1G champs will occupy the first three seeds. Now, let’s be serious here, what’s the chance UNC keeps the #4 seed, meaning the ACC has two of the top four and the SEC only one? That’s not gonna happen. UNC will get pushed down to #5, so you guys who claimed winning the ACC Title doesn’t matter need to eat some humble pie and learn that lesson because it does matter.
Click to expand...
If conference tournaments matter why would Auburn get rewarded for losing to Arkansas?
 
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unctarheel1984

unctarheel1984

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HeelYeah2012 said:
When #4 is the best we could realistically be, it feels like we are going to be disappointed if we are going to be ticked off with anything other than exactly #4.

The SEC has done too much winning in this tournament for the committee to place the second best ACC team ahead of the second best SEC team, in my opinion.
Click to expand...
Then why wasn't Auburn already projected ahead of UNC the last few weeks and what has Auburn done other than losing in their conference semi-finals that justify the last second leap over UNC?
 
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UNC76

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In addition to sticking us with Coastal, D1 also gave us a difficult 4 seed in Northeastern. BA actually projects Northeastern as a 3 seed. The trade-off is USC-State is a weak 3, but that means Coastal could throw their #2 guy against them.
 
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floridahighschoolcoach

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Let's let it play out . Hopefully we get the 4 national seed. I would think with several teams from the northeast getting in as a 4 seeds that Carolina would get the weakest and the strongest would go to WVU which is closer anyway but that would require common sense which we know doesn't exactly apply to the NCAA .
 
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uncjhodges

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HeelYeah2012 said:
When #4 is the best we could realistically be, it feels like we are going to be disappointed if we are going to be ticked off with anything other than exactly #4.

The SEC has done too much winning in this tournament for the committee to place the second best ACC team ahead of the second best SEC team, in my opinion.
Click to expand...
That’s pretty absurd logic. Its not like the ACC doesn’t win alot in this tournament, us particularly. There are cases for auburn other than being the 2nd best SEC team (which is highly debatable in general) Auburn will get the 4 seed imo and rewarded for playing a lot of games against good teams and winning about half of them. I’ve watched a fair amount and don’t think they are better but our ACC schedule did us no favors (really unlucky that Louisville and Clemson just ended up being bad)
 
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unctarheel1984

unctarheel1984

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JohnBunting said:
Who cares....quit whining. You have to beat good teams to get to Omaha. If we can't then we don't deserve it. Stop blaming everything under the sun if we dont geez.
Click to expand...
Maybe open your eyes to the reality that some good teams are better than others and fairness should matter. We should get what we earned, not settle for being slapped and expected to say, "Thank you, sir. May I have another?" like some beaten dog.
 
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UNC23NDME

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Us being #5 shouldn’t be a surprise. Committee loves RPI and Auburn is above us in RPI.

With no accolades, from either the regular season or conference tournament, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them default to RPI and have us behind them.
 
HoopsHeel

HoopsHeel

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bluebooksandbluecups said:
d1baseball.com

2026 NCAA Field Of 64 Projections: Final Edition • D1Baseball

Selection Day is almost here, and as usual, we have our final Field of 64 Projection for the postseason.
d1baseball.com d1baseball.com

Well, the guys at D1 moved us from #4 to #5 overnight…which feels a little like inside information because nothing Auburn did yesterday impacted their resume because…yes…they were already eliminated from their conference tournament. The “logic” used in the Nerdcast was Auburn’s record against “#1 seeds” which is perpetuated by the awarding of 7 regional sites to SEC teams.

Anyway, the difference between a #4 and a #5 is a bigger deal than some may realize, because it results in a completely different group of 4 potential #2 seeds being considered for the Chapel Hill regional.

At #5, our potential #2 seeds included the #25-28 seeds (Coastal, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Miami). We couldn’t host Miami because of conference affiliation, so D1 projects Coastal to come to Chapel Hill.

Had we been the #4 seed, we would have had one of the #29-32 seeds come to Chapel Hill. In D1’s mock, they would be Louisiana, Liberty, Missouri State or UVA (which, again, we couldn’t host because of a shared conference).

Just interesting that losing in our tourney final resulted in a team that had already lost in its conference tourney semis being placed ahead of us even though they’d been behind us in D1 mocks for a while now. Again, that feels a little like a tip someone at D1 might have gotten.
Click to expand...
It’s ALL about the SEC!
 
HoopsHeel

HoopsHeel

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For everybody’s sweating, Coastal, I live down here and have season tickets. Decided to support them as my second team since I moved here full time. Coastal is playing like crap and has been ever since they beat Carolina the first time. Most people down here think it’s because it’s a pretty much forego conclusion right now that Schnall is negotiating with South Carolina to become their next head coach. It’s pretty obvious that’s gotten into the clubhouse and Coastal’s not the same team they were when they played in Chapel Hill, trust me. Louisiana beat them like 4 of their last 5 games and they lost series to ODU and Texas State (I think) at home to end the year. Flukey and Horn are legit but we should be fine against them.
 
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uncjhodges

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premn said:
If you listen to the podcast where they do the seeding it basically is just this
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Well it’s Mark Etheridge who’s a huge Sec homer and Kendall Rogers, who went to TAMU and I remember arguing with about UNC in the late 2000s. Fittsy is obviously a UNC guy but i think he has the classic UNC thing where he overcompensates to be “objective”
 
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premn

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uncjhodges said:
Well it’s Mark Etheridge who’s a huge Sec homer and Kendall Rogers, who went to TAMU and I remember arguing with about UNC in the late 2000s. Fittsy is obviously a UNC guy but i think he has the classic UNC thing where he overcompensates to be “objective”
Click to expand...
It’s just crazy because they’ve had UNC/auburn 4/5 and then this one they go ehhh never mind Auburn “looks good”
 
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HeelYeah2012

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unctarheel1984 said:
Then why wasn't Auburn already projected ahead of UNC the last few weeks and what has Auburn done other than losing in their conference semi-finals that justify the last second leap over UNC?
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It’s not necessarily a last second leap. Auburn has been ahead of UNC in the RPI for a while I think. None of these projections anyone has seen in recent weeks come from the actual committee. So if Auburn is ahead of us today in the official release, it’s possibly because they’ve always been ahead of us in the committee’s mind. As for D1 making the flip, they talk all the time about taking a fresh look at resumes each week since the metrics change on a weekly basis as opponents move in an out of Quad 1, etc.

My overall point is, I support us as the #4 seed and hope that’s where we land. But I don’t think we are being screwed if we end up as #5.
 
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bluebooksandbluecups

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HeelYeah2012 said:
It’s not necessarily a last second leap. Auburn has been ahead of UNC in the RPI for a while I think. None of these projections anyone has seen in recent weeks come from the actual committee. So if Auburn is ahead of us today in the official release, it’s likely because they’ve always been ahead of us in the committee’s mind. As for D1 making the flip, they talk all the time about taking a fresh look at resumes each week since the metrics change on a weekly basis as opponents move in an out of Quad 1, etc.
Click to expand...
Well…they’ve done them daily the last four days…so for 3 of those 4 days UNC was 4 and Auburn was 5.
 
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HeelYeah2012

HeelYeah2012

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bluebooksandbluecups said:
Well…they’ve done them daily the last four days…so for 3 of those 4 days UNC was 4 and Auburn was 5.
Click to expand...
Correct, it’s fair to criticize D1 Baseball for making a flip as long as you understand their methodology (fresh look every day, lots of moving parts and data).

I was just pointing out that if the actual committee puts us 5, that isn’t necessarily a last second flip at all because the actual committee doesn’t put out any incremental brackets along the way.
 
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heels2012

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My guess the reason for the flip in the seeding projection is due to the insights gained from the regional hosts reveal. RPI appeared to be top criteria there so likely what led to flip with Auburn (3) and us (4). UGA is 7 but there’s no way they won’t be top 3.
 
TarHeelColby10

TarHeelColby10

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HoopsHeel said:
For everybody’s sweating, Coastal, I live down here and have season tickets. Decided to support them as my second team since I moved here full time. Coastal is playing like crap and has been ever since they beat Carolina the first time. Most people down here think it’s because it’s a pretty much forego conclusion right now that Schnall is negotiating with South Carolina to become their next head coach. It’s pretty obvious that’s gotten into the clubhouse and Coastal’s not the same team they were when they played in Chapel Hill, trust me. Louisiana beat them like 4 of their last 5 games and they lost series to ODU and Texas State (I think) at home to end the year. Flukey and Horn are legit but we should be fine against them.
Click to expand...
They won the Texas State series, but other than that I think you’re right. Hurts to say, didn’t think Schnall would jump at the first SEC opportunity unless it’s was one of the big 4. But, alas.
 
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floridahighschoolcoach

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Baseball America is determined Tennessee is coming to
Chapel Hill. Every projection they put out has them in Chapel Hill. Today's has Tennessee as the 2 , Mercer as the 3 . Tennessee would be taking a huge risk holding back the ace vs Mercer .
 
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bluebooksandbluecups

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HeelYeah2012 said:
Correct, it’s fair to criticize D1 Baseball for making a flip as long as you understand their methodology (fresh look every day, lots of moving parts and data).

I was just pointing out that if the actual committee puts us 5, that isn’t necessarily a last second flip at all because the actual committee doesn’t put out any incremental brackets along the way.
Click to expand...
Correct. To the Committee, I would point out:
- Auburn has 8 more losses than UNC.
- Auburn is 5-5 in their last 10; UNC is 8-2.
- Auburn lost 3 series this year; UNC lost one.

And I could add:
- UNC is rated higher in DSR and ELO than Auburn (negating that one spot they are ahead of us in RPI).

Or even:
- Auburn finished SIXTH in their conference; UNC finished SECOND.
 
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UNC76

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bluebooksandbluecups said:
Correct. To the Committee, I would point out:
- Auburn has 8 more losses than UNC.
- Auburn is 5-5 in their last 10; UNC is 8-2.
- Auburn lost 3 series this year; UNC lost one.

And I could add:
- UNC is rated higher in DSR and ELO than Auburn (negating that one spot they are ahead of us in RPI).
Click to expand...
And the committee would reply "Auburn is in the SEC", which trumps every advantage we have.
 
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