OT: We may win the World Cup in 2026

RUChet · Thursday at 5:04 PM

RUDiddy777 said:
In bball, I think everyone is just catching up - we’re not getting worse. We’ve seen poor man Lebrons and Jordan’s - but Wemby, don’t think we’ll ever see another guy at 7 4+ with PG handles and the ability to pull up for a logo 3 that’s not in desperation.

Totally agree with your point on other countries. Our system is just busted for soccer - and it’s why we’re not catching up. Parents just want to see their kid score and they’re constantly barking out orders as if they know anything about the game. It’s frustrating as hell watching their kids dribble into a mass of kids or just straight out of bounds without passing.

on a side note, have you had a chance to see the youngsters on RBNY? If not, enjoy em while they’re stateside.

we are worse at the 5 by a wide margin. we used to have guys like Shaq, Robinson, Ewing. 3 first ballot HOFers that played at the same time. Today we don't have any bigs going to the HOF. Not even close.

Then we had Duncan, Mourning. Those guys were way better than any of our 5's today.

RUDiddy777 · Thursday at 5:24 PM

RUChet said:
we are worse at the 5 by a wide margin. we used to have guys like Shaq, Robinson, Ewing. 3 first ballot HOFers that played at the same time. Today we don't have any bigs going to the HOF. Not even close.

Then we had Duncan, Mourning. Those guys were way better than any of our 5's today.

But in the same era, you also had Hakeem (arguably better than all you’ve listed except Shaq), Mutumbo, Divac, Smits, Sabonis (early version of Jokic) in the same era.

You’ve also got some guys who are in that height range who don’t play the 5 now - Durant, porter, Johnson, and Paolo.

In short, it might be a transient situation where the top 3 centers are all foreign born. But there were high quality foreign players at the 5 in the 90s.

RUDiddy777 · Thursday at 5:38 PM

Caliknight said:
But they don't go out and play unsupervised. It's all club related. Even basketball isn't a park game anymore. These kids just play AAU ball. Parks I used to see very active have no more motion now. They can watch soccer till the cows come home but if they aren't working on their skills and playing outside of structured games and practicing, it won't matter at all. The system is broken in both sports.

100%. I mean, as much as I played, I preferred pickup hockey, football and basketball over soccer growing up. My little one is actually showing a bit of potential (he’s still a bit young), so paying more attention to development if this is something he still loves doing as he gets older.

It seems like all of his friends are big into soccer, so I’m hoping pickup soccer will be a part of his after school routine.

RUDiddy777 · Thursday at 5:41 PM

RUChet said:
I don't think that's true. the world is 1000% better than when the dream team played. so it's SO MUCH harder now to win. Our guys played really hard to win the last olympics and we tried hard to win the last world cup but our team wasn't big enough (Talk and bulky) and we were manhandled in the last few games. but our guys tried hard.

i just think it's easy to say the Dream Team wanted it more because they were so dominant and now our guys don't care because we barely win (or don't win).

The Dream Team would flat out not crush everyone now like they did. They'd have much closer games. that team was actually quite flawed and the best world teams would exploit now.

1) we had little outside shooting other than Mullin and a very slow/injured Bird
2) we had poor perimeter defense for the most part except when MJ/Pippen got out there
3) our bigs dominated but there was little competition back then. Now they'd have to go against NBA talent in the post on almost every team.
4) We had MJ so we'd still win but we'd have much closer games and we'd have to prepare much harder.

Ha - yeah, I think the days of Jordan drinking his way through 36 holes, heading to the arena and putting up 50 are over.

RUChet · Thursday at 6:01 PM

RUDiddy777 said:
But in the same era, you also had Hakeem (arguably better than all you’ve listed except Shaq), Mutumbo, Divac, Smits, Sabonis (early version of Jokic) in the same era.

You’ve also got some guys who are in that height range who don’t play the 5 now - Durant, porter, Johnson, and Paolo.

In short, it might be a transient situation where the top 3 centers are all foreign born. But there were high quality foreign players at the 5 in the 90s.

90’s nearly all Americans as top centers
00’s starting to see some top int’l centers
10’s many top international centers
20’s mostly top centers non American

we can’t say Durant or Porter or Mobley or Banchero are centers any more than Nowitzki or Gasol - just all 6-10+ PFs

Johnson is 6-8 (the one on Hawks)

Mobley can play center but he’s more of a big 4. Allen is their center

LotusAggressor_rivals · Thursday at 7:09 PM

-RUFAN4LIFE- said:
I think the players representing USA basketball just don't care as much as the Birds, Johnsons, etc. did about representing the country.

The players today care just as much. The players in the rest of the world, particularly Europe, have gotten a lot better. There aren't any Wembenyamas, Jokics, or Giannises coming out of American colleges. The coaching and player development at the college level in the US isn't as good as it once was.

RUDiddy777 · Thursday at 7:40 PM

LotusAggressor_rivals said:
The players today care just as much. The players in the rest of the world, particularly Europe, have gotten a lot better. There aren't any Wembenyamas, Jokics, or Giannises coming out of American colleges. The coaching and player development at the college level in the US isn't as good as it once was.

I think that’s fair, but not entirely true - as others have pointed out, the AAU system is a bigger problem and probably ruining guys before college.

Joel Embiid developed in the US (I think he’d still be a top 5 guy if he could stay healthy). Anthony Davis and Chet are both pretty good. I just think the 5 is such a small sample size given the height requirement.

Probably worth noting that both Giannis and Wemby are of west African descent.

Erial_Lion · Thursday at 7:46 PM

Caliknight said:
AAU is killing American basketball just as club soccer is killing any hope of fielding a legit soccer team.

I play golf with a US soccer board member. We simply don’t develop truly world class talent. Their goal is to make it out of the group. That’s the ceiling for this team.

Not even close to accurate to think that the “goal” would be to make it out of the group, or that advancing to the knockout round would be the “ceiling”.

RUDiddy777 · Thursday at 7:53 PM

Erial_Lion said:
Not even close to accurate to think that the “goal” would be to make it out of the group, or that advancing to the knockout round would be the “ceiling”.

You really think the USMNT is a quarterfinal or above caliber team? I think with new structure sure, getting past round of 32 is feasible.

Erial_Lion · Thursday at 8:21 PM

RUDiddy777 said:
You really think the USMNT is a quarterfinal or above caliber team? I think with new structure sure, getting past round of 32 is feasible.

I could certainly see a scenario where we made the quarters, but the round of 16 would be my baseline for it being a decent result (depending on the round of 32 matchup). With the expanded tournament, luck/matchups will play a huge role in the knockout phase.

RUChet · Thursday at 8:22 PM

RUDiddy777 said:
I think that’s fair, but not entirely true - as others have pointed out, the AAU system is a bigger problem and probably ruining guys before college.

Joel Embiid developed in the US (I think he’d still be a top 5 guy if he could stay healthy). Anthony Davis and Chet are both pretty good. I just think the 5 is such a small sample size given the height requirement.

Probably worth noting that both Giannis and Wemby are of west African descent.

Davis is really a 4. Doesn’t like playing the 5.

Most top foreign talent is of African descent (or partly): Wemby, Giannis, SGA, Anunoby, NWA, Edgecombe, Siakam, Embid, Diabate, Gobert, Queta, Ayton, Barrett, Wiggins, Murray, Mathurin, Sharpe, Schroeder, Camara, Daniels, Hachimura

And Africa will be 40% of the global population under 25 in like 20-30 yrs….

RUChet · Thursday at 8:23 PM

Erial_Lion said:
Not even close to accurate to think that the “goal” would be to make it out of the group, or that advancing to the knockout round would be the “ceiling”.

Goal to me is round of 16 with ceiling to get to semis but realistically I think we get out of group and lose next game

Erial_Lion · Thursday at 9:14 PM

RUChet said:
Goal to me is round of 16 with ceiling to get to semis but realistically I think we get out of group and lose next game

Agree to a point…but who we get in the round of 32 plays such a huge role. We play Iran/New Zealand and it would be disappointing/surprising to lose…Belgium/Germany and a win would be much tougher.

RUDiddy777 · Thursday at 9:16 PM

RUChet said:
Goal to me is round of 16 with ceiling to get to semis but realistically I think we get out of group and lose next game

Just checked. 16 seems right, group is pretty favorable and we should advance as a 1 or 2. 1 is a crapshoot that could draw a good 3 depending on how it shakes out. Group D Runner up takes group G runner up, which should be also be favorable - assuming Belgium coasts to the 1. By the round of 16, unlikely we’d be favored but think you’re right, a modest upset there wouldn’t be unrealistic - but were outclassed beyond that.

RUChet · Thursday at 9:16 PM

Erial_Lion said:
Agree to a point…but who we get in the round of 32 plays such a huge role. We play Iran/New Zealand and it would be disappointing/surprising to lose…Belgium/Germany and a win would be much tougher.

Agree on that. Avoid European teams as much as possible as we struggle against them. I’d rather face a South American team not named Argentina/Brazil than a European team. We just don’t play well against them usually

RUDiddy777 · Thursday at 9:17 PM

Erial_Lion said:
Agree to a point…but who we get in the round of 32 plays such a huge role. We play Iran/New Zealand and it would be disappointing/surprising to lose…Belgium/Germany and a win would be much tougher.

We’d draw Iran or the kiwis if we finish runner up - but that may be a safer spot than finishing 1 and potentially drawing a random tough 3.

Erial_Lion · Thursday at 9:23 PM

RUDiddy777 said:
We’d draw Iran or the kiwis if we finish runner up - but that may be a safer spot than finishing 1 and potentially drawing a random tough 3.

Egypt probably a bit more likely than the other two. But all three of those are manageable.

Caliknight · Thursday at 9:44 PM

Erial_Lion said:
Not even close to accurate to think that the “goal” would be to make it out of the group, or that advancing to the knockout round would be the “ceiling”.

Well I was told that by a US Soccer board member. I assume he knows what he’s talking about.

Erial_Lion · Thursday at 9:51 PM

Caliknight said:
Well I was told that by a US Soccer board member. I assume he knows what he’s talking about.

Well, if that’s what he said, then he obviously doesn’t.

RUDiddy777 · Thursday at 10:15 PM

Erial_Lion said:
Egypt probably a bit more likely than the other two. But all three of those are manageable.

Fair point.

Caliknight · Thursday at 10:25 PM

Erial_Lion said:
Well, if that’s what he said, then he obviously doesn’t.

But a guy on a message board does? Ok.

Erial_Lion · Thursday at 10:39 PM

Caliknight said:
But a guy on a message board does? Ok.

Maybe not some random guy…but I’ve been successfully capping International Soccer for 15-20 years and understand the soccer betting market very well.

The US is a huge favorite to make it out of the group (implied odds around 84%). There is pretty much no one that would see that as the “goal”. Implied odds to make the round of 16 are around 43%…there isn’t a world where an efficient market like World Cup Soccer would be so off that something that happens 40+% of the time is beyond a team’s “ceiling”.

Wouldn’t be the first time that a board member of an organization is clueless…but in this case, it’s clear he doesn’t know what he’s talking about if he’s serious with those comments.

SirScarlet · Friday at 12:13 AM

Caliknight said:
Well I was told that by a US Soccer board member. I assume he knows what he’s talking about.

Lol ... The last person I would trust these days is a USSF board member

That org is a fkng joke

RUDiddy777 · Friday at 8:41 AM

Erial_Lion said:
Maybe not some random guy…but I’ve been successfully capping International Soccer for 15-20 years and understand the soccer betting market very well.

The US is a huge favorite to make it out of the group (implied odds around 84%). There is pretty much no one that would see that as the “goal”. Implied odds to make the round of 16 are around 43%…there isn’t a world where an efficient market like World Cup Soccer would be so off that something that happens 40+% of the time is beyond a team’s “ceiling”.

Wouldn’t be the first time that a board member of an organization is clueless…but in this case, it’s clear he doesn’t know what he’s talking about if he’s serious with those comments.

In fairness, he didn’t say when he heard that - things were kind of bleak not too long ago. But looking at the group and the potential round of 32 match ups, it would be a failure not to get the round of 16. A realistic “goal” would be round of 8 (which should be the minimum goal for every WC).

Caliknight · Friday at 8:50 AM

Erial_Lion said:
Maybe not some random guy…but I’ve been successfully capping International Soccer for 15-20 years and understand the soccer betting market very well.

The US is a huge favorite to make it out of the group (implied odds around 84%). There is pretty much no one that would see that as the “goal”. Implied odds to make the round of 16 are around 43%…there isn’t a world where an efficient market like World Cup Soccer would be so off that something that happens 40+% of the time is beyond a team’s “ceiling”.

Wouldn’t be the first time that a board member of an organization is clueless…but in this case, it’s clear he doesn’t know what he’s talking about if he’s serious with those comments.

Cool. I’ll let him know.

seansherm · Friday at 10:29 AM

RUDiddy777 said:
100%. I mean, as much as I played, I preferred pickup hockey, football and basketball over soccer growing up. My little one is actually showing a bit of potential (he’s still a bit young), so paying more attention to development if this is something he still loves doing as he gets older.

It seems like all of his friends are big into soccer, so I’m hoping pickup soccer will be a part of his after school routine.

Encourage your son to try to get guys to start a regular pickup event. When we aren't in our old man season, we'll play pick up every Sunday am, short side, 4 v 4 up to 10 v 10 using lacrosse nets or cones. Completely different feel to full field, guys try more things. We've had ages 17 to 65 on the field together, but more competitive when the age range is tighter.

seansherm · Friday at 10:32 AM

Caliknight said:
Well I was told that by a US Soccer board member. I assume he knows what he’s talking about.

No need to wonder why US Soccer sucks if thats board members expectations. Dont make it out of the group and everyone should be fired.

RUDiddy777 · Friday at 7:58 PM

@RUChet @Erial_Lion appreciate both of your posts in here. Good stuff.

RU848789 · Friday at 8:05 PM

RUDiddy777 said:
@RUChet @Erial_Lion appreciate both of your posts in here. Good stuff.

Agreed. Wish mildone were still posting about soccer, as he knows more about soccer (especially youth soccer) than anyone I know. There's no doubt that this is objectively the most "talented" team we've ever had simply based on the number of players playing well in the best leagues, but talent isn't enough and I'm not sure this team plays well enough together to go very far, although I'm pretty confident we make it out of the group and have a decent chance of winning that first knockout round game. After that who knows, but I wouldn't bet on us going much further.

RUChet · Friday at 9:03 PM

RUDiddy777 said:
@RUChet @Erial_Lion appreciate both of your posts in here. Good stuff.

If you are a paid subscriber check out Round Table for the post I made on our WC roster prediction.

looking forward to Tuesday’s reveal!!!!

here was my post from a couple of days ago:

__________
Just 6 days away from the US MNT WC Roster reveal! Unfortunately, there hasn't been a lot to cheer about with what is supposed to be our best and deepest talent pool with the most players we've ever had playing in top 5 leagues (MLS certainly not 1 of those top 5 but is a top 10 league).

However we are co-hosts and hosts have a way of over-performing ala South Korea getting all the way to the semis as a host!

And US Soccer stupidly scheduled 2 of our 3 group matches in LA where we have never had great fan support due to the massively diverse population. We likely will have the minority fan base vs. Paraguay and Turkey. So stupid to play in LA vs. more northern cities! And then we play Australia in Seattle where there likely will be more Aussie fans then in a more eastern city. Again a stupid choice.

Onto the roster (players in a top 5 league in bold)...Top 5 leagues are: Premier League (England), Serie A (Italy), Budesliga (Germany), La Liga (Spain), and Ligue 1 (France).

Guaranteed selection:

Goalkeeper: Freese, Turner
Defenders: Richards, Ream, Dest, A Robinson
Forwards/Midfielders: Pulisic, Adams, McKennie
Strikers: Bolugun

Probable selection:

Defenders: Freeman, McKenzie
Forwards/Midfielders: Weah, M Tillman
Strikers: Pepi, Wright

Bubble:

Goalkeeper: Brady, Schulte
Defenders: Arfsten, Trusty, Scally, M Robinson
Midfielders: Luna, Reyna, Tessman, Roldan. Aaronson, Berhalter, McGlynn, Zendejas, A Morris, Musah
Strikers: Sargeant, White

My Preferred Roster:

Goalkeepers (3): Freeze, Turner, Brady
Defenders: (9) Richards, Ream, Dest, A Robinson, McKenzie, Freeman, Arfsten, Trusty, M Robinson
Midfielders (11): Adams, Pulisic, Mckennie, Weah, M Tillman, Luna, Reyna, Aaronson, Roldan, Tessman, Berhalter
Strikers (3): Bolugun, Wright, Pepi

Starting XI: We seemed to have played the best under Poch with a 3-man backline so I'm going with that. A 3-2-4-1 formation basically

Goalkeeper: Freese
Backline: Richards, Ream, Freeman
Wingbacks: Dest, A Robinson
Defensive Midfielders: Adams, Tessman
Attaching Midfielders: Pulisic, McKennie
Striker: Bolugun

One can measure the development of US Soccer by counting how many roster spots and projected starters play in a top 5 league. On my roster 14 of 26 play in a top 5 league and 8 of 11 starters which is the most we've ever had!

Of note, it seems every WC the US coach includes 1 surprise name that got little or no playing time in WC qualifying yet makes the WC squad. So don't be surprised if name not mentioned above shows up on the roster and gets playing time.

rigi19041 · Friday at 10:08 PM

brad1218 said:
Our kids are really rounding into form. Pulisic, McKennie, Reyna, Dest are all world class right now and they are so young. Adams is right there too. Then you have Musah who has come out of nowhere to look great. I think Richards will make the jump and pair up with Brooks. We are a great full back and striker away from having true studs at every position and we have depth. The striker part has me a little worried. Hoping Weah or Sargent can make the leap. Julian Green is also making noise and starting to fulfill the promise. He should get another look.

Signed WorldcupAl

Erial_Lion · Friday at 10:14 PM

Caliknight · Friday at 11:11 PM

seansherm said:
No need to wonder why US Soccer sucks if thats board members expectations. Dont make it out of the group and everyone should be fired.

Just realistic. We simply don’t have any true world class talent. And they lost whatever thing that made them competitive before. Balls.

SirScarlet · Saturday at 6:47 AM

Caliknight said:
Just realistic. We simply don’t have any true world class talent. And they lost whatever thing that made them competitive before. Balls.

This is just patently false unless you're hiding your argument in what "world class talent" means.

We have numerous players who get major minutes at big clubs/leagues

This was a valid argument in the past, but not anymore.

RUChet · Saturday at 9:21 AM

Erial_Lion said:

Mistake no to take Luna. He has the nastiness on the pitch and individual skill we need. Hope it’s not true

Erial_Lion · Saturday at 9:32 AM

RUChet said:
Mistake no to take Luna. He has the nastiness on the pitch and individual skill we need. Hope it’s not true

Couldn’t agree more

Fat Koko · Saturday at 9:32 AM

Erial_Lion said:
Maybe not some random guy…but I’ve been successfully capping International Soccer for 15-20 years and understand the soccer betting market very well.

The US is a huge favorite to make it out of the group (implied odds around 84%). There is pretty much no one that would see that as the “goal”. Implied odds to make the round of 16 are around 43%…there isn’t a world where an efficient market like World Cup Soccer would be so off that something that happens 40+% of the time is beyond a team’s “ceiling”.

Wouldn’t be the first time that a board member of an organization is clueless…but in this case, it’s clear he doesn’t know what he’s talking about if he’s serious with those comments.

100% agree here that the market is smarter on teams' chances than an individual board member.

Met with too many board members over the years, mostly of real estate companies. Some are remarkably engaged in the many organizations they oversee (late Sam Zell), others are shockingly clueless.

The Rutgers Board of Governors should be in former category, but this BoG couldn't figure out how to hire an AD and also approved Greg and Pike's stupid contract extensions, handcuffing Keli.

RUChet · Saturday at 9:51 AM

Fat Koko said:
100% agree here that the market is smarter on teams' chances than an individual board member.

Met with too many board members over the years, mostly of real estate companies. Some are remarkably engaged in the many organizations they oversee (late Sam Zell), others are shockingly clueless.

The Rutgers Board of Governors should be in former category, but this BoG couldn't figure out how to hire an AD and also approved Greg and Pike's stupid contract extensions, handcuffing Keli.

Is it that our BoGs are more academic savvy types than business savvy. Big time sports is a big time business and if you don’t know how to run a business then you won’t be successful

RUDiddy777 · Saturday at 10:25 AM

RUChet said:
Mistake no to take Luna. He has the nastiness on the pitch and individual skill we need. Hope it’s not true

Real head scratcher to take Gio over him.

RUChet · Saturday at 10:31 AM

RUDiddy777 said:
Real head scratcher to take Gio over him.

You can take both. Gio has some qualities Luna doesn’t. It depends on who else makes it. Zendejas? Roldan?

OT: We may win the World Cup in 2026

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