Don’t think so. We have basically a 2 game edge on them with the governors cup and are 4-0 head to head. They would have to get to Sunday before I start worrying about them stealing a host.
We're only 34 RPI points above them right now. Of course, they will lose some by beating Missouri, but they'd gain by beating us and even losing to Georgia. I'd say we more than likely host even with a loss Wednesday, but we can't take it for granted. Because there's a very real chance they could take our regional and send us on the road.
I just think even if they were to pass us in RPI points the committee would take a step back and look at the body of work if it’s an either/or state vs OM situation. Now I agree let’s just win Wednesday and not worry about it.
Given we finished higher in the conference and have the head-to-head metrics on them I don't think it would matter but committees have found ways to screw us before so who knows. SR did say though that no SEC team has ever hosted that didn't finish above .500 in the conference. Sure hope that holds because we are likely going to have a low end bullpen guy starting Wed. It really is pathetic that we've put ourselves in this situation though.
Let's hope not. They've got 6 top 11 wins. We have 3. Q1 - they're 11-7, we're 9-13. Q2 - they're 7-3, we're 4-3.
I doubt it too, but you never can be sure with the committee, who is wildly inconsistent from year to year on which metrics do and don't really matter in seeding the teams.
Rebels are 11-17 not 11 and 7 in quad one games. Good for .393 winning percentage. We are 9-13 good for .409 so marginally better. Yeah they have a few more q 2 wins than us but the resumes are remarkably similar. Except for the fact that one team has beaten the other 4 times out of 4. Pardon me if I am not scared of Ole Miss jumping us.
I can't think of any metric that should get them a top 8 seed. They did play about 5 SEC teams (going 3-2), but the rest of their schedule was garbage. They didn't even play the other good team in the Sunbelt.
Right. Never trust my typing. I'm not exactly terrified of them jumping us. But it is a possibility. And if they were to beat Georgia Thursday, almost a certainty. Probably wouldn't beat Georgia, but much stranger things happen all the time in this tournament that is completely meaningless to Georgia.
And just to be clear, I think we're still probably 70% chance to host if we lose Wednesday. But we need to play like it's a must win game. Because there's a chance it might be.
Other than head-to-head, their body of work is significantly better than ours. More top 11 wins. More Q1 wins (comparable Q1 winning percentage because they play 7 more games). More Q2 wins and better winning percentage. Both undefeated vs Q3 and Q4.
He's not really an "ace" but their Friday night guy, Josh McDevitt (ERA 4.03 in 73.2 innings, 94/37 K/BB) is starting tomorrow. He did pitch against Texas last Thursday, so they didn't rest him.
