We enter the series 11th in the RPI. With Georgia being 15th, we need to get to the top 7 (maybe top 6) to get a National Top 8 seed. What does that look like?
First, lets look at RPIs 6-12. I think the top 5 in the RPI + Georgia are locks for national seeds. So 2 of these teams will get the final two Top 8 seeds
6. Alabama (vs. Ole Miss)
7. Florida State (vs. Miami) -7 RPI points
8. Southern Cal (vs. Oregon) -33 RPI points
9. Southern Miss (vs. Georgia Southern) -48 RPI points
10. Texas A&M (vs. Mississippi State) -88 RPI points
11. Mississippi State (vs. Texas A&M) -109 RPI points
12. Florida (vs. LSU) -110 RPI points
Every win over A&M is worth 35 RPI points, a loss is -10 points, so taking 2 of 3 would give us +60 RPI points, raising us to 8th on our own with no help. Obviously a sweep would be worth 105 points, which would probably be enough. But we need help if we win 2 of 3.
Luckily the team directly in front of us is our opponent. We are 21 points behind them. A loss to us is worth -39 points, so a win would be worth 74 points over A&M. We would easily pass A&M.
Southern Miss has a problem this weekend. Georgia Southern is awful. A WIN over Georgia Southern is worth -20 points, so they lose 60 points with a sweep. If GS could take one, USM would lose -78 points. Cheer for: Georgia Southern to take one game from Southern Miss
Southern Cal has 0 wins over Quad 1 teams and Oregon is a Quad 1 opportunity. A win over Oregon is +32 and a loss is -15, so Oregon taking 2 of 3 would be only net them 2 points while we make up 60. So catching USC with only a series win would be tough. Cheer for: Oregon sweep would be nice, but Oregon has to win the series against USC.
We are 102 points behind Florida State. Florida State will lose 13 points if they lose just one game. If they lose two, they lose 74 points and with our gain of 60 from winning 2 of 3 against A&M, we would pass them. Cheer for: Miami to win the series against Florida State
Similar to FSU, we are 109 points behind Alabama. Bama loses 9 points if they only take 2 of 3, and if Ole Miss wins 2, they lose 66 points. We would not catch Alabama without a sweep or Ole Miss sweep, but we'd be in a situation where we could catch them in Hoover. Cheer for: an Ole Miss sweep or at least a series win.
Unfortunately, you have to watch out for Florida behind us. They are only 1 point behind us and if they sweep LSU, they could make up enough points to put some pressure on us in Hoover. Cheer for: LSU to take at least one game against Florida
