Mark Pope 46-26 63.8% after 2 seasons at UK

paulcalhoun_rivals397471 · Wednesday at 10:32 PM

Tom Izzo 33-28 54.1% after 2 seasons at MSU

Dean Smith 23-15 60.5% after 2 seasons at UNCheat

Billy Donovan 27-32 45.8% after 2 seasons at UF

Coach K 27-30 47.4% after 2 seasons at Puke

Nolan Richardson 31-30 50.8% after 2 at Arkansas

Danny Hurley 35-29 54.7% after 2 seasons at UConn

Todd Golden 40-29 58% after 2 seasons at UF

Scott Drew 17-40 30% after 2 seasons at Baylor

Tony Bennett 31-31 50% after 2 seasons at Virginia

Jay Wright 34-29 54% after 2 seasons at Villanova

Jim Calhoun 29-33 46.8% after 2 seasons at UConn

Gary Williams 35-26 57.4% after 2 seasons at Maryland

Lute Olson 31-27 53.4% after 2 seasons at Arizona

That's a few National Championship coaches (13 of 22) since 1991 (accounting for 21 titles) with a worse record their first 2 season at the schools that they won it at than Pope's first 2 seasons at UK.

BlueSince92 · Wednesday at 10:38 PM

Now do Tubby and Cal and Rick even though he was on probation without TV or postseason play rights.

Not trying to rib you too hard but being here should make a difference.

loublue22_rivals308424 · Wednesday at 10:39 PM

Do Dusty May and Todd Golden, it's not the 70s anymore.

BlueSince92 · Wednesday at 10:40 PM

loublue22_rivals308424 said:
Do Dusty May and Todd Golden, it's not the 70s anymore.

Pretty sure he did Golden

CatManFromCa · Wednesday at 10:47 PM

Pope is ahead of the early trajectories of multiple Hall of Famers and multiple national champions.

If you want to panic, go ahead.
But history says Year 3 and Year 4 Pope are when things get scary for everyone else.

Hush4872 · Wednesday at 10:51 PM

Transfer portal and NIL have changed the game drastically. It's entirely possible to build a contender in year 1.

paulcalhoun_rivals397471 · Wednesday at 10:52 PM

BlueSince92 said:
Now do Tubby and Cal and Rick even though he was on probation without TV or postseason play rights.

Not trying to rib you too hard but being here should make a difference.

This was only the ones that were worse. Pitino was 64.3% his first two seasons here. I hadn't actually checked it because of probation until you brought it up. I wouldn't really agree that Pope stepped into a better situation than several on this list did at the given times.

RedwoodHigh · Wednesday at 10:56 PM

With extra game - Pope will win 26+ games this year including 2 NCAA games & 1 SEC Tournament game
we are DEEP at crucial positions & have a battle to see who starts across the board.

paulcalhoun_rivals397471 · Wednesday at 10:56 PM

CatManFromCa said:
Pope is ahead of the early trajectories of multiple Hall of Famers and multiple national champions.

If you want to panic, go ahead.
But history says Year 3 and Year 4 Pope are when things get scary for everyone else.

I'm making no predictions based on this but it does show that claiming he can't really improve from here is faulty logic. In most all these cases no one was predicting what was to come after two seasons.

anot · Wednesday at 11:02 PM

Hey Paul decent thread. I want to ask something and hopefully you look at the question without thinking I'm being a troll or something.

But all those coaches you listed...what was the percentages at their previous schools? Before they got the big job and became championship coaches. I'm assuming they all had smaller jobs. How were their percentages at those schools prior. Did they do better than average causing them to get a better job? I honestly don't know and am asking a serious question.

Pope has kind of had those same percentages his whole career right? Did all those coaches have the same percentages before the big promotion?

paulcalhoun_rivals397471 · Wednesday at 11:02 PM

Hush4872 said:
Transfer portal and NIL have changed the game drastically. It's entirely possible to build a contender in year 1.

That is largely a guess at this point. The data does not yet exist. It may be possible that it makes it tougher at place like UK as everyone can buy them now and our name and tradition may carry less weight in luring players now due to the changes.

anot · Wednesday at 11:10 PM

Also remember back in the day coaches didn't have millions to pay players and couldnt flip an entire roster in two months like today.

All of those coaches were forced to basically coach the previous coaches players besides maybe a few freshman they could get. If I was like you I would say what a stupid logic that don't even make sense. But what I would actually say is what I already said...decent thread. I just had to ask a question and then state the difference of my opinion. Hoping you take notes buddy.

NociHTTP · Wednesday at 11:11 PM

Hush4872 said:
Transfer portal and NIL have changed the game drastically. It's entirely possible to build a contender in year 1.

If you have a coach who can win at an elite level and you have enough NIL.

battle_cats · Wednesday at 11:11 PM

ah gee look, another Pope bashing thread.

paulcalhoun_rivals397471 · Wednesday at 11:25 PM

anot said:
Hey Paul decent thread. I want to ask something and hopefully you look at the question without thinking I'm being a troll or something.

But all those coaches you listed...what was the percentages at their previous schools? Before they got the big job and became championship coaches. I'm assuming they all had smaller jobs. How were their percentages at those schools prior. Did they do better than average causing them to get a better job? I honestly don't know and am asking a serious question.

Pope has kind of had those same percentages his whole career right? Did all those coaches have the same percentages before the big promotion?

Smith and Izzo held no previous job.

Donovan 63.6% at Marshall

Hurley 63.2% at Wagner
57.9% at RI

Coach K 55.3% at Army

Todd Golden 61.3% at SF

Drew 64.5% at Valpo

Tony Bennett 67.6% Wash St

Jay Wright 58.9% at Hofstra

Jim Calhoun 64.4% Northeastern

Nolan Richardson 76.3% Tulsa

Gary Williams 63.2% American, 62.8% BC, 59% Ohio St

Lute Olson 64% Iowa

anot · Wednesday at 11:28 PM

paulcalhoun_rivals397471 said:
Smith and Izzo held no previous job.

Donovan 63.6% at Marshall

Hurley 63.2% at Wagner
57.9% at RI

Coach K 55.3% at Army

Todd Golden 61.3% at SF

Drew 64.5% at Valpo

Tony Bennett 67.6% Wash St

Jay Wright 58.9% at Hofstra

Jim Calhoun 64.4% Northeastern

Nolan Richardson 76.3% Tulsa

Gary Williams 63.2% American, 62.8% BC, 59% Ohio St

Lute Olson 64% Iowa

Thanks buddy gives me a better idea

paulcalhoun_rivals397471 · Wednesday at 11:35 PM

battle_cats said:
ah gee look, another Pope bashing thread.

? Surely you aren't referring to the OP in this case.

anot · Wednesday at 11:37 PM

paulcalhoun_rivals397471 said:
Smith and Izzo held no previous job.

Donovan 63.6% at Marshall

Hurley 63.2% at Wagner
57.9% at RI

Coach K 55.3% at Army

Todd Golden 61.3% at SF

Drew 64.5% at Valpo

Tony Bennett 67.6% Wash St

Jay Wright 58.9% at Hofstra

Jim Calhoun 64.4% Northeastern

Nolan Richardson 76.3% Tulsa

Gary Williams 63.2% American, 62.8% BC, 59% Ohio St

Lute Olson 64% Iowa

Also how the hell did Smith and izzo get such a job with no prior head coaching experience. That's amazes me.

Mike-D · Wednesday at 11:38 PM

How many of those coaches had an instant transfer portal and somewhere hovering around 20 million dollars to spend?

Imagine a full rebuild without it. Cal didn't leave anything.

I think we're comparing apples to oranges here.

TheApostleSaulSmith · Wednesday at 11:53 PM

Idk, fellow Pope bashers. I know it’s a different era and some of those programs are way below UK but still there are a lot of big names here. I’m trying to come up with a counter to this and I can’t. Good thread, OP. You’ve done your research and made an appeal for Pope that doesn’t appeal to emotion or his history as an alum.

Alright you’ve convinced me. A year 3 is acceptable. I will lessen my b*tching. That’s my stance until another Pope whiff or public appearance after which I’ll immediately go back to bashing

TheApostleSaulSmith · Wednesday at 11:56 PM

I would’ve left Scott Drew off the list though. Pretty extraordinary situation going on at Baylor before he arrived. We say Cal left us in a bad spot but that’s what a real bad spot looks like.
Plus he ain’t all that imo

anot · 2026-05-14T00:02:06-0500

TheApostleSaulSmith said:
Idk, fellow Pope bashers. I know it’s a different era and some of those programs are way below UK but still there are a lot of big names here. I’m trying to come up with a counter to this and I can’t. Good thread, OP. You’ve done your research and made an appeal for Pope that doesn’t appeal to emotion or his history as an alum.

Alright you’ve convinced me. A year 3 is acceptable. I will lessen my b*tching. That’s my stance until another Pope whiff or public appearance after which I’ll immediately go back to bashing

I'll lessen my bit*hing because Pope is here no matter what and I'll cheer on my team and Pope. It does worry me tho that he will do just good enough to get a year four. I really hope this is a make or break season for Pope and we either make some noise or he hits the road.

I'm seriously thinking he will be here a year 4 and 5. I might as well log off of here if that happens and he hasnt improved his results.

When we get a new AD I think we will all know if the old Kentucky is gone forever or not.

paulcalhoun_rivals397471 · 2026-05-14T00:04:41-0500

Mike-D said:
How many of those coaches had an instant transfer portal and somewhere hovering around 20 million dollars to spend?

Imagine a full rebuild without it. Cal didn't leave anything.

I think we're comparing apples to oranges here.

I think this is just being contrarian without pertinent information. If you wish to make such a claim you really ought to research the situations and rosters they inherited instead of making blanket uninformed statements. The difference that NIL makes is not as easy to predict as you seem to think at this point especially when a lot of your investment has missed significant time over the first two seasons.

paulcalhoun_rivals397471 · 2026-05-14T00:10:38-0500

TheApostleSaulSmith said:
I would’ve left Scott Drew off the list though. Pretty extraordinary situation going on at Baylor before he arrived. We say Cal left us in a bad spot but that’s what a real bad spot looks like.
Plus he ain’t all that imo

Drew also started with 4 straight losing seasons. It was 13 of 22 coaches who have won a title since 1991 who had worse records their first two seasons than Pope. Should I also go back and discount ones who did better than Pope because they stepped into better situations? I know just off the top of my head for example Kevin Ollies best 2 seasons record was his first two. If I parse it out according to schedule difficulty that very likely favors Pope in most situations as well.

20MRoster · 2026-05-14T00:15:57-0500

anot said:
Also remember back in the day coaches didn't have millions to pay players and couldnt flip an entire roster in two months like today.

All of those coaches were forced to basically coach the last coaches players besides maybe a few freshman they could get. If I was like you I would say what a stupid logic that don't even make sense. But what I would actually say is what I already said...decent thread. I just had to ask a question and then state the difference of my opinion. Hoping you take notes buddy.

This. Back in the day, winning in year 3 meant the first class you recruited did their job. The standard for winning in the new era has been established by Dusty May, with Golden not far behind. Scheyer is also a good baseline of what a "decent job" at a blueblood looks like. Pope is nowhere close to any of those 3. Yes, Pope beat Scheyer and Golden once, but those guys took those teams to the FF and Natl Title.

Also, the biggest knock on Pope is he is very clearly regressing each year. I don't think any of the coaches on Paul's list had that issue. I did a whole thread on Hurley, so I know for a fact he didn't regress.

paulcalhoun_rivals397471 · 2026-05-14T00:23:48-0500

This claim is a whole other can of worms I may tackle in another thread later. I can tell you at least several weren't doing any better than Pope has done by year three or four either or they suffered even worse seasons deeper into their career. You seem to be running with the assumption that they were dealing with weaker rosters and that is not automatically the case for every situation. Calipari got it done in year one back in 2009 is another consideration here. Pitino was able to do it in year two while on probation in 1991-1992 largely due to adding Mashburn as another example.

BigRedMachineBigBlueNation · 2026-05-14T00:39:31-0500

Hush4872 said:
Transfer portal and NIL have changed the game drastically. It's entirely possible to build a contender in year 1.

I hope you're right

BigRedMachineBigBlueNation · 2026-05-14T00:48:58-0500

TheApostleSaulSmith said:
I would’ve left Scott Drew off the list though. Pretty extraordinary situation going on at Baylor before he arrived. We say Cal left us in a bad spot but that’s what a real bad spot looks like.
Plus he ain’t all that imo

2021 Baylor was a lighting-in-a-bottle situation. Imho: post-Covid year scewed up the sport, the Blue Bloods were all in a slump that year, many teams were stacked with 5-6 year super-seniors but especially Baylor, the field wasn't very competitive that year... Baylor and Gonzaga and Houston dominated that season all season.

Baylor hasn't looked like that since. Drew is a good coach but I can't see him replicating that season again.

Anon1776024529 · 2026-05-14T02:03:00-0500

paulcalhoun_rivals397471 said:
That is largely a guess at this point. The data does not yet exist. It may be possible that it makes it tougher at place like UK as everyone can buy them now and our name and tradition may carry less weight in luring players now due to the changes.

You sure about that? Dusty may did okay in year 1&2.

MichaelGray · 2026-05-14T04:08:34-0500

20MRoster said:
This. Back in the day, winning in year 3 meant the first class you recruited did their job. The standard for winning in the new era has been established by Dusty May, with Golden not far behind. Scheyer is also a good baseline of what a "decent job" at a blueblood looks like. Pope is nowhere close to any of those 3. Yes, Pope beat Scheyer and Golden once, but those guys took those teams to the FF and Natl Title.

Also, the biggest knock on Pope is he is very clearly regressing each year. I don't think any of the coaches on Paul's list had that issue. I did a whole thread on Hurley, so I know for a fact he didn't regress.

Is Pope really regressing? He regressed in year 2 for sure, several reasons why. Are you basing his "regressing" from his whole coaching career or just at UK? He tried to match the physical play from the SEC with his recruits in year 2, not concentrating on as much scoring & it burned him, didn't go get a backup PG when Lewis bailed, Lowe got hurt & it all went to ****. If year 3 goes South then yes, he's regressing & not just regressed, we know what happens then, he'll get canned by the new AD.

Cats_2010 · 2026-05-14T04:31:29-0500

RedwoodHigh said:
With extra game - Pope will win 26+ games this year including 2 NCAA games & 1 SEC Tournament game
we are DEEP at crucial positions & have a battle to see who starts across the board.

So if we have a similar record next year falling well short of your expectations losing 12-14 games are you still singing popes praises or admitting maybe he’s not the man for the job.

AllBall · 2026-05-14T04:38:19-0500

paulcalhoun_rivals397471 said:
Tom Izzo 33-28 54.1% after 2 seasons at MSU

Dean Smith 23-15 60.5% after 2 seasons at UNCheat

Billy Donovan 27-32 45.8% after 2 seasons at UF

Coach K 27-30 47.4% after after 2 seasons at Puke

Nolan Richardson 31-30 50.8% after 2 at Arkansas

Danny Hurley 35-29 54.7% after 2 seasons at UConn

Todd Golden 40-29 58% after 2 seasons at UF

Scott Drew 17-40 30% after 2 seasons at Baylor

Tony Bennett 31-31 50% after 2 seasons at Virginia

Jay Wright 34-29 54% after 2 seasons at Villanova

Jim Calhoun 29-33 46.8% after 2 seasons at UConn

Gary Williams 35-26 57.4% after 2 seasons at Maryland

Lute Olson 31-27 53.4% after 2 seasons at Arizona

That's a few National Championship coaches (13 of 22) since 1991 (accounting for 21 titles) with a worse record their first 2 season at the schools that they won it at than Pope's first 2 seasons at UK.

See how many articles and media clips there are of other teams making fun of their failures and recruiting woes.

megablue · 2026-05-14T05:01:16-0500

Hush4872 said:
Transfer portal and NIL have changed the game drastically. It's entirely possible to build a contender in year 1.

Yes ... programs can head up or down so much quicker than in past years. You can lose practically your entire team after every season. Every year is essentially a rebuilding one. You can have a mere semblance of roster continuity only if you can pay for it, but rebalancing and rebudgeting place upward pressure on the continuous need for more money and the critical wise use of it.

Actually, it is really WEIRD now ... it is EASIER to be immediately successful, but still TOUGHER to do it !!

Lastly, I cannot help but wonder if the overall attitude of players and their desire to WIN have been diminished, as opposed to the increased expectations and pressure to WIN by fans, alumni and boosters. How can players be committed to winning when they are always moving around ?? They are committed to MONEY !!

Beatle Bum · 2026-05-14T05:07:23-0500

BlueSince92 said:
Now do Tubby and Cal and Rick even though he was on probation without TV or postseason play rights.

Not trying to rib you too hard but being here should make a difference.

Wasn’t Rick like 14-14 his first season?

megablue · 2026-05-14T05:22:52-0500

paulcalhoun_rivals397471 said:
Tom Izzo 33-28 54.1% after 2 seasons at MSU

Dean Smith 23-15 60.5% after 2 seasons at UNCheat

Billy Donovan 27-32 45.8% after 2 seasons at UF

Coach K 27-30 47.4% after after 2 seasons at Puke

Nolan Richardson 31-30 50.8% after 2 at Arkansas

Danny Hurley 35-29 54.7% after 2 seasons at UConn

Todd Golden 40-29 58% after 2 seasons at UF

Scott Drew 17-40 30% after 2 seasons at Baylor

Tony Bennett 31-31 50% after 2 seasons at Virginia

Jay Wright 34-29 54% after 2 seasons at Villanova

Jim Calhoun 29-33 46.8% after 2 seasons at UConn

Gary Williams 35-26 57.4% after 2 seasons at Maryland

Lute Olson 31-27 53.4% after 2 seasons at Arizona

That's a few National Championship coaches (13 of 22) since 1991 (accounting for 21 titles) with a worse record their first 2 season at the schools that they won it at than Pope's first 2 seasons at UK.

GREAT research ... Thank You for it !! Can you easily provide the career win percentages at UK for Rupp and every coach since him ?? That might put expectations and the pressure of winning at UK in an interesting, if not better, perspective ...

paulcalhoun_rivals397471 · 2026-05-14T05:26:08-0500

AllBall said:
See how many articles and media clips there are of other teams making fun of their failures and recruiting woes.

It would probably be more useful for you if I posted some tampon ads.

paulcalhoun_rivals397471 · 2026-05-14T05:27:12-0500

megablue said:
GREAT research ... Thank You for it !!

You're welcome.

KyLegacyBBN · 2026-05-14T05:30:41-0500

This is a stupid comparison. Do only coaches in NIL era otherwise this proves nothing.

megablue · 2026-05-14T05:32:43-0500

paulcalhoun_rivals397471 said:
You're welcome.

Paul ... I added an afterthought to my previous post ... I hope you saw it. Not trying to get you to do too much work ... but if you had it in your database ... I thought the KY total win% by coach might be meaningful to consider, even though we ALL know how $$$ and transfer portability have changed the landscape.

ACCat#23 · 2026-05-14T05:43:09-0500

paulcalhoun_rivals397471 said:
Smith and Izzo held no previous job.

Donovan 63.6% at Marshall

Hurley 63.2% at Wagner
57.9% at RI

Coach K 55.3% at Army

Todd Golden 61.3% at SF

Drew 64.5% at Valpo

Tony Bennett 67.6% Wash St

Jay Wright 58.9% at Hofstra

Jim Calhoun 64.4% Northeastern

Nolan Richardson 76.3% Tulsa

Gary Williams 63.2% American, 62.8% BC, 59% Ohio St

Lute Olson 64% Iowa

Nice stats. Does give hope to us. I've soured on the Pope honeymoon after last season but still rooting for the guy.

He coaches our (UK) team, and I want to win, and if he proves he can get it done here - clock is ticking away - then we got our guy. We won't have to worry about losing a coach for a long time.

But .... the jury is still out on whether he can win at our expected level. Personally, I'm hoping so, but this is a big year for him to prove it.

Mark Pope 46-26 63.8% after 2 seasons at UK

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