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D1 Baseball Field of 64 - Carolina #5 national Seed

unc80

unc80

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HeelYeah2012 said:
Same reason their RPI is #3 (vs ours at #5): Auburn has played the toughest schedule in the country. #1 ranked SOS.

They have played 25 (!) Quad 1 games (13-12 record in those 25), whereas UNC has only played 14 such games (9-5 record in those). Word of caution, the Quads can change quickly if a team you played bounces back and forth between Quad 1 and Quad 2 depending on their performance these last couple weeks.
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I looked at the records. 13-12 in Q1 games is not really impressive. Nor is 20-15 in both Q1 and Q2 games. Carolina's record is 20-8 in those games. Just because they've played more of those games actually weakens the argument for them when you look at what they've done overall. RPI is certainly flawed and needs to be viewed along with everything else. I don't mind Carolina being undervalued right now, but I definitely want a top 4 seed for the team that has the most impressive series win on their resume of any team in the country.
 
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premn

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It can help to look at other big data points. Auburn and UNC have basically the same team ERA (3.48 vs 3.50). Both pitching staffs allow right around 7.5 hits per game. UNC averages about 1 run scored more per game (7.08 vs 8.18). 10 of their losses came between March 21 and April 16, 9/10 to ranked teams. I think the series this week against Georgia will sort it out—if they win it they’re definitely deserving of being top 4 imho. If they lose it then 6-7 seems more correct. They seem to be in the same tier as us, regardless.
 
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goheels1117

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unc80 said:
I looked at the records. 13-12 in Q1 games is not really impressive. Nor is 20-15 in both Q1 and Q2 games. Carolina's record is 20-8 in those games. Just because they've played more of those games actually weakens the argument for them when you look at what they've done overall. RPI is certainly flawed and needs to be viewed along with everything else. I don't mind Carolina being undervalued right now, but I definitely want a top 4 seed for the team that has the most impressive series win on their resume of any team in the country.
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It's not our fault, but what's our best series win away from the Bosh? Clemson? Cal?

Auburn has series wins on the road against Florida, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State, 3 teams who would host if the tournament started tomorrow.
 
TarHeelColby10

TarHeelColby10

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bluebooksandbluecups said:
I’d add that, if UCSB throws Flora in Game 1, then it’s not that brutal of a #2 seed. But if they throw off and it works out, Flora would be the best pitcher we’ve faced all season.
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It would be better than an SEC draw imo

flora is fantastic, it’d be the best RH arm we’ve faced maybe since Burns or Lowder. BUT, we pitch pretty well our selves and they’re not very offensive. I wouldn’t hate that draw at all.
 
TroyVaughn

TroyVaughn

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UNC76

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bluebooksandbluecups said:
I’d add that, if UCSB throws Flora in Game 1, then it’s not that brutal of a #2 seed. But if they throw off and it works out, Flora would be the best pitcher we’ve faced all season.
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If they saved Flora to face us, that would be a huge gamble for them. Liberty is no joke.
 
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Heelium1

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HeelYeah2012 said:
Which league do you think is the toughest? The one with Boston College in the top 4?
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I don't actually care "which league is the toughest." That is probably because I have borne witness to one league relentlessly telling me it is the best--regardless of whether it is, or not. Check out 2006 as an example.

I do care which teams, in any given league, are the best. In the SEC, because the BS is ritually spread so thick, that has become impossible to ascertain until about this point in the season, when the discrepancies caused by early hyperbole, as well as the unbalanced schedule, begin to even out.
 
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premn

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Mercer is 34 in RPI, they’ll be a 3 seed and have a really good offense. The kind of team GT often loses to in regionals.
 
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floridahighschoolcoach

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Wonder if GT even threw some of their high leverage relivers ? Starting a series on Thursday in conference chagrsca lot of middle week options. GT has lost one series all year and BC has not lost a series at home .
 
unc80

unc80

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HeelYeah2012 said:
Good deal. The Auburn loss was to a likely regional 2 seed. But the GT loss isn’t great!
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So the 2 teams just traded positions in the RPI. GT went down one and Auburn, by virtue of losing, went UP to #2. Only in RPI World can that make any sense at all. If the RPI could become self-aware, it might say "Guys I'm no good at this. I quit". I'm not so sure it would be a bad thing to be the #2 seed in Auburn's regional. I guess if they lose any more games, they'll move up past UCLA.
 
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unc80

unc80

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If Warren Nolan's predictor is correct, we'll sweep MooU and GT will lose their series at BC, which would make UNC the ACC regular season champions, and #1 seed in the ACC Tourney. But that thing is notoriously inaccurate, so I wouldn't go celebrating just yet. Then again it's not impossible.
 
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goheels1117

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unc80 said:
So the 2 teams just traded positions in the RPI. GT went down one and Auburn, by virtue of losing, went UP to #2. Only in RPI World can that make any sense at all. If the RPI could become self-aware, it might say "Guys I'm no good at this. I quit". I'm not so sure it would be a bad thing to be the #2 seed in Auburn's regional. I guess if they lose any more games, they'll move up past UCLA.
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GT was 2nd before either game either game yesterday. They fell to 3 when they lost, then switched back to 2 when Auburn lost, and now they’ve switched back based on some other result yesterday. It would make sense that Auburn would gain ground yesterday because their loss was on the road while GT’s was at home.

We actually fell a spot at first when GT lost but then went back to 5 before the end of the night. It just shows how tight the margins are and how much the performance of your opponents impacts your own ranking.
 
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premn

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I think they’ll get in and could cause problems in their regional. This is total runs on the season. IMG_9432.jpeg
 
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floridahighschoolcoach

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The draw on D1 isn't bad as they are all mid majors and yes each one of them is very good and can beat Carolina but with that said when you get to game 6 and 7 if necessary in a regional they typically don't have the pitching depth that we have seen from a team like LSU and OU coming out of the losers bracket.
 
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bluebooksandbluecups

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unc80 said:
If Warren Nolan's predictor is correct, we'll sweep MooU and GT will lose their series at BC, which would make UNC the ACC regular season champions, and #1 seed in the ACC Tourney. But that thing is notoriously inaccurate, so I wouldn't go celebrating just yet. Then again it's not impossible.
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If that was to happen…UNC would end up the #2 or #3 national seed.
 
unc80

unc80

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Which one of these is not like the others?
RPI.png

Just in case this comes up on an IQ test.
 
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uncjhodges

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We’re up to 2 in DSR. Noted on the nerdcast yesterday that softball tourney selection committee followed DSR closer than rpi
 
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