I expect Iowa States defense to be decent next season as key players from Washington State moved to Ames, and their defense was pretty salty last year. Worst case scenario for Iowa in their game against Iowa State is for the Iowa offense to lay an egg and keep Iowa State in a low scoring game where anything can happen.
The Iowa State offense is an unknown. The QB is by all accounts a very good runner, and he does have a couple of receivers that will be pretty good. But the offensive line is a makeshift of players from schools like Montana State and North Dakota State etc, plus some who didn't go to Happy Valley and stayed with the Cyclones. It will be a work in progress and Iowa will be a tough ticket early in the season.
By all accounts it should be an Iowa win, but you never know in these games. Key is the Iowa offense scoring more than two touchdowns.