That’s all fine. However, the expectation that Rutgers was going to land 2 centers who are clear and away better than Manny on both ends is just ridiculous. Keeping Manny as the back up would’ve been perfectly fine. Adding someone comparable with maybe a little more upside is fantastic news. I don’t understand all the negativity on this one.
BB Recruiting Kansas State transfer center Dorin Buca commits to Rutgers
- Thread starter Richie O
- Start date
Hopefully, we’re targeting someone with stats like rising sophomore Paul with a bit better D. If we’re targeting a guard - that’s the only realistic way we’re landing someone “tall”. Someone who can also play the 3 or stretch 4.
There was no one who thought Ogbole was starting material, you are just yelling at windmills with that. It's not EO's fault the team has been terribly built for years, that's the only reason he gets support from some.
Overall, Pike and GM Sullivan did about as good as we could have hoped. They added Gurdak and Buca. They had 9 million-ish to spend so spending 7-8 mil on centers was not realistic as Rutgers can’t swim in that end of the pool just yet. But, considering their budget, they added a starter who belongs in the Big 10, played in the ACC and a backup with size that will provide rim protection at 7’2”, played in the Big 12. Maybe some could quibble and say they should have spent more for the starting center but we needed multiple frontcourt pieces so the budget always had to be watched as adding a $4-$5 Mil center was not realistic. Overall, I think Pike and Sullivan did a really nice job with the Center position and better than what I would have expected. Last season we didn’t even have a competent Big 10 frontcourt. Now, at a minimum we have a competent Big 10 frontcourt with Gurdak, Sydnor, Buchanan, Smith, and Buca, (maybe some Duarte mixing in at small forward, maybe we still add another backup forward) and we at least have the potential to be more than competent.
MJ was four years younger, this kid is a much more completed package, but, yeah, he could tamp down the fouls a little in a second year, it's possible.
What are these defensive metrics you talk about, not that I think any are true indicators of good defense? His defensive rating was over 110, which didn't lead his bad team, and he was fifth on the team in defensive box +/-. His DBPR, while top 400 or so was 33 spots ahead of Gavin Griffiths, so take that stat for what it's worth. His Box DBPR was lower than Ogbole's and just ahead of Dortch. We had 9 guys play more possessions than Buca did LY, will be interesting to see what he does with more time - I could see him being out there another 130 possessions, equaling Dortch this year, than he was last.
I'm not seeing these numbers. In fact, the numbers on Hoop-Explorer really show that, while he was a good enough athlete to get blocks and rebounds, Ogbole had no idea what he was doing on the defensive end:
Ogbole
Box Rating (Lower = Better) - 111.6
RAPM (Lower = Better) - 0.4
Buca
Box Rating (Lower = Better) - 99.9
RAPM (Lower = Better) - -3.4 (Top 80)
The lower number of possessions may be telling, as with Baye Fall having our best Box rating on defense, of 100.4, good enough for top 200 status.
Come in for 3 minutes, block one shot and grab one rebound, and by these metrics you’re a defensive superstar, even if you commit 2 fouls and turn the ball over in those 3 minutes.
My defensive rating and defensive box +/- came from basketball reference. The box DPBR came from Evan Miya, he has Buca at 2.12 DBPR and 1.23 in Box DPBR while Ogbole at 1.19 DBPR (big advantage Buca) but 1.98 on his Box DBPR (big advantage EO).
I think we all know Ogbole had limitations on defense and my post wasn't comparing the players, but was asking where poster was seeing these great Buca numbers. At the same time, I don't think any defensive stats tell a true story.
Yeah, that's why defensive ratings usually don't mean too much and are heavily influenced by the team around them too.
Box DBPR is only based on individual box score stats and they mention that it's only a starting point when calculating the final DBPR which calculates the players value to the total team defense.
I agree that stats can only tell part of a story, but almost every measure that reflects added value to the team defense (Adj Team Def Eff and DBPR on Miya, RAPM on Hoop Explorer, DBPM on Torvik) has Buca rated highly. On the flip side, his advanced offensive stats are about as bad as it gets.
It was discussed on the latest TKR podcast. The metric described sounded sort of like +/- but strictly for defense. It was described that K-State ranked as an elite defense in the 347 minutes that Buca played, and one of the worst defenses the rest of the time. The metric ranking itself seemed to be a comparison for each player of a team’s defensive ranking with them playing vs without them. And his ranking was the 95th percentile.
Baye Fall played 25 total minutes for K-State so your point applies to him. Buca played 347 minutes. I refuse to accept that complete randomness could account for Buca’s team ranking elitely on defensive stops during those 347 minutes and near the bottom the rest of the time. It’s a big enough sample to at least have some meaning.
Cool, I don't think I've ever seen Hoop Explorer or really looked at Torvik. Hopefully he's actually good defensively, like how to handle a pick and roll and these stats aren't just due to his high block rate. Either way, a solid add as a back up.
Makes you wonder why Buca didn’t average more than 13 minutes per game.
Seems fine for a defensive backup C.
But there should be zero mention of his "shooting".
He was 2-2 on 3s in 1 game.
Then 0-9 the rest.
Clif went 7-35 for his career here.
In 22-23 he went 4-22 from 3 (double Buca). Went 1-2 against Columbia to start the season.
Nobody would say he was a "threat" or had a "green light" to shoot.
The next shot from Buca outside the paint will be too soon.
But there should be zero mention of his "shooting".
He was 2-2 on 3s in 1 game.
Then 0-9 the rest.
Clif went 7-35 for his career here.
In 22-23 he went 4-22 from 3 (double Buca). Went 1-2 against Columbia to start the season.
Nobody would say he was a "threat" or had a "green light" to shoot.
The next shot from Buca outside the paint will be too soon.
Take it with a grain of salt since this is in the beginning of the year and he may have changed his mind at some point but this KState writer seemed to like him. He starts talking about Buca at around the 1:45 mark.
Exactly. Not sure why people are complaining. He’s a great depth piece with upside - how often are we going to add a legit 7 footer with 13 mpg experience in his first year of major conference play…
I don’t think he was rating him. Ogbole is also a solid backup not a starter at this level and I’m a fan of him.
Big difference between Big 12 basketball and Italian Serie B basketball. Gotta assume he improves.
This reminds me of all the times I would hear on a TKR podcast how good Ogbole was defensively and how we needed to play him more. Okay, that probably never happened, but it does suggest that we got ourselves somewhat of a defensive specialist who could be a good change of pace guy that presents the opportunity to up the defense while he is in the game. When he comes in it might even be a good time to apply a full court press.
It goes without saying that any grade to any player obtained through the portal is a paper only grade at this point. Buca fills a clear need. I’m not a fan of individual defensive metrics because they fail to take into account many important attributes of the defensive game. The data referenced on TKR can’t be totally wiped to the side though. K-State ranked as an excellent defensive team in the 347 minutes Buca was on the court and an “awful” defensive team when he was on the bench. I just don’t see how that can be a random anomaly. We’re not talking about Baye Fall’s 20 or so minutes on the whole season.
He was a turnover machine on offense and committed a ton of fouls which is no doubt why he only played 13 mpg - we don’t need to worry about his fouls as a back up, and there’s at least reason to hope that his turnovers might be able to be cleaned up somewhat in the offseason.
And that K State writer from TOS mentions in the video how much better the defense is with him on the floor so those metrics passed at least his eye test.
When Ogbole didn’t put himself in the hole with fouls early, he had some good games. Think he struggled to get into the flow in the games he had to sit often.
Case in point, his game against UNLV in Vegas. He was a man possessed, with 21 points, 13 rebounds, and 2 blocked shots.
Our fans treat him like he was Fall. I just don’t get it. He would’ve been a good enough back up center this season. Just wasn’t good enough to be our starter.
You know the back up C at every B1G program? You may need to go outside more.
Oregon's back up was worse offensively than EO, probably better defensively. We all know he's not a big level talent, but w bigs you never know. Hell, we just gave a third chance to the body known as Baye Fall.
Part of it may have been the matchup and UNLV’s defensive scheme. Part of it was that he was clearly confident and on a roll that day. Sadly that game was an anomaly for him.
It is unlikely he will get another year of eligibility so his situation is likely why there will be zero interest. Ogbole has the size and athleticism of a Big Ten center so one of the other 17 coaches might have taken a chance, but given his situation, it would be foolish for them to go after him.
I was referring more to last year as the eligibility situation, barring a miracle from the NCAA, all but rules him out.
If he was in high demand as a backup, we would have heard rumors of teams trying to poach him.
I’m not expecting “much” better either but given that he only played one season in the US there’s at least reason to hope he’ll see considerable year over year improvement. Manny improved a lot this past season and he’s an older player.
I also think the 12 wins is deceiving. k-State wasn’t a good team but they certainly were not any worse than Rutgers. Remember, every B-12 opponent other than Utah won 17+ games (KState drew Utah once and beat them). And KState’s non-conference slate only included 5 cupcake games. They played Nebraska, Indiana, Creighton, Cal, Tulsa, Seton Hall, Tulsa and Miss State in non-conference. Not all world beaters - but still very different from our schedule where we only played Tenn, ND, SHU and UNLV.
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why the need to sh@t on ogbole?
And I love when people try to “win” the argument by putting words in people mouths - no one said ogbole was in “high demand”
but fact is that big men are relatively few and far between (compared to guards) - teams need big men - honestly even to just eat up space in the paint, give fouls, etc
Dortch got picked up by notre dame
Fall by Fresno state - finally dropped from P4 after team-after-p4-team gave him a shot
if eligibility was not a question it is virtually guaranteed that he would get picked up by a lower level P4 program (or equivalent). Guaranteed. To eat up space, give fouls, some rebounds, the occasional block…. as a 2nd or 3rd back up (where he SHOULD have been the whole time as we ALL agree)
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The fact that Fall landed in the MWC after failing miserably at 3 power conference school says it all. Anyone who thinks Ogbole wouldn’t get picked up by a power conference team if he wanted to and was eligible is clueless. That’s not to say he wouldn’t prefer to be a clear starter at a lower level but he would see playing time pretty much anywhere he would go except the wealthy schools who can afford to buy a collection of starting caliber centers.
Yeah agreed. But based on where the roster stood before adding him, defense is what we needed most - especially in the frontcourt. I don’t think individual defensive metrics have all that much meaning but when a kid who plays as much as Smith did ranks bottom 5 percentile we probably can’t expect much there as an example - there’s usually information to take away from extreme data. In Buca’s case - it can’t be ignored or chalked up to randomness that K-State was so dramatically better on D in the 347 minutes he played (8 and a half games worth of playing time is not insignificant).