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We are back in the PEARanalytics Trapezoid of Excellemce

615dawg

615dawg

All-Conference
Jun 4, 2007
6,867
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Hard to argue that the eight teams in the trapezoid aren't candidates for Omaha. But these stats show that while we are 4th in the nation in wins, we are actually UNDERPERFORMING.

We have a special team.

For some others.

Kansas is the luckiest team in the country and winning way more games than they should. They are nearly off the chart. I like them as a possible Super Regional opponent. Nebraska isn't that far behind.

Our next opponent, Texas, is underperforming a little as well. Auburn is just about where they should be and A&M is overperforming.

Team I do not want to see in a regional based on these stats: Wake Forest. They look a lot like Tennessee in that they should have won several more games than they have.

If you want to look at this as quadrants:

Upper left are good teams that should be better. (State, LSU, Arkansas, Tennessee, Wake Forest)
Upper right are good teams that have won more than they should (Kansas, Nebraska, Georgia, Texas A&M)
Lower left are bad teams that have had some worse luck (South Carolina, Missouri)
Lower right are bad teams that have had some good luck (Michigan, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame)
 
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She Mate Me

She Mate Me

Heisman
Dec 7, 2008
13,577
12,134
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615dawg said:


Hard to argue that the eight teams in the trapezoid aren't candidates for Omaha. But these stats show that while we are 4th in the nation in wins, we are actually UNDERPERFORMING.

We have a special team.

For some others.

Kansas is the luckiest team in the country and winning way more games than they should. They are nearly off the chart. I like them as a possible Super Regional opponent. Nebraska isn't that far behind.

Our next opponent, Texas, is underperforming a little as well. Auburn is just about where they should be and A&M is overperforming.

Team I do not want to see in a regional based on these stats: Wake Forest. They look a lot like Tennessee in that they should have won several more games than they have.
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I do think we have underperformed a bit, but not terribly. Our ceiling would be higher if we didn't have obvious issues catching and throwing the baseball in some spots. Things that could really get you if you're trying to be truly elite.

The teams I don't wanna see anytime before Omaha are UCLA and Georgia Tech. We've seen UCLA, but GT's offense is scary.
 
615dawg

615dawg

All-Conference
Jun 4, 2007
6,867
4,016
113
She Mate Me said:
I do think we have underperformed a bit, but not terribly. Our ceiling would be higher if we didn't have obvious issues catching and throwing the baseball in some spots. Things that could really get you if you're trying to be truly elite.

The teams I don't wanna see anytime before Omaha are UCLA and Georgia Tech. We've seen UCLA, but GT's offense is scary.
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Yep. I'm just thinking if we end up in the 7-10 range, possible SR opponents are teams like Oregon State, Kansas. I don't think we will be the 15/16 seed and see UCLA or Tech before Omaha.

Wake Forest will not be a host team. They will be a 2 seed likely at an SEC host. Besides Minnesota, they are the most "snakebit" team in the country and their team strength rating - they are just behind Arkansas/Tennessee. Teams like that can get hot and make a postseason run. Of the likely 2 seeds, give me a team like Oklahoma State or Jacksonville State that are good teams that have won more than they should. Those teams struggle in the postseason.
 
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mstateglfr

mstateglfr

All-American
Feb 24, 2008
16,270
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Oh but of course, the often cited PEARanalytics Trapezoid of Excellence.

The Trapezoid was brought up at a dinner party over the weekend and we all had an insightful conversation about the Trapezoid's findings until one woman was all 'that trapezoid is total shit because its boundaries arent static!'. We stared at her with disgust and promptly kicked her out of her own house. How dare she question such a well known and accepted scatterplot!**
 
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patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
57,937
27,801
113
I’m not gonna pretend to understand what any of that means. But I do feel pretty sure being in the trapezoid of excellence is a good thing. I do agree that as good as the overall & SEC records are, this team has underperformed in a lot of ways. I think this team has more in them. If they can reach it, I don’t know.
 
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Anon1749038494

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Jun 4, 2025
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patdog said:
I’m not gonna pretend to understand what any of that means. But I do feel pretty sure being in the trapezoid of excellence is a good thing. I do agree that as good as the overall & SEC records are, this team has underperformed in a lot of ways. I think this team has more in them. If they can reach it, I don’t know.
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The trapezoid is based on what pear analytics calls “kill shots”, which are innings in which you put up a crooked number and follow that 1/2 inning by not allowing any runs. So we score 3 in the bottom of the first and put up a 0 in the top of the second that is considered a kill shot. He has found that the correlation of kill shots to winning % is incredible especially if you hit the first kill shot. The trapezoid contains teams that are winning a lot of games vs what he expects teams to win based on their “kill shot percentage”. Meaning those teams can hit you in the mouth and it shows based on being inside the trapezoid. Based on where we are located inside the trapezoid, we are about 2.5 wins off of his expectations.
 
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Darryl Steight

Darryl Steight

All-American
Sep 30, 2022
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I like the concept. I would love for this guy - or someone else with too much time on his hands -- to graph past seasons going into postseason.

Would be interesting to see where we were on the chart in May of 2021, for example. Without thinking too deeply about it, I would guess we were in about the same spot. Good team strength, but had underperformed in the regular season slightly.
 
A

Anon1749038494

Junior
Jun 4, 2025
136
262
63
Darryl Steight said:
I like the concept. I would love for this guy - or someone else with too much time on his hands -- to graph past seasons going into postseason.

Would be interesting to see where we were on the chart in May of 2021, for example. Without thinking too deeply about it, I would guess we were in about the same spot. Good team strength, but had underperformed in the regular season slightly.
Click to expand...
He does historical ratings. Currently we’re at 6.48 for comparison we were at 5.54. https://pearatings.com/cbase/d1/team-profile?team=Mississippi St.&season=2026
 
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Cousin Jeffrey

Redshirt
Feb 20, 2011
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Anon1749038494 said:
The trapezoid is based on what pear analytics calls “kill shots”, which are innings in which you put up a crooked number and follow that 1/2 inning by not allowing any runs. So we score 3 in the bottom of the first and put up a 0 in the top of the second that is considered a kill shot. He has found that the correlation of kill shots to winning % is incredible especially if you hit the first kill shot. The trapezoid contains teams that are winning a lot of games vs what he expects teams to win based on their “kill shot percentage”. Meaning those teams can hit you in the mouth and it shows based on being inside the trapezoid. Based on where we are located inside the trapezoid, we are about 2.5 wins off of his expectations.
Click to expand...
Ackchyually....
A "kill shot" is when you score 2+ runs in an inning and your opponent doesn't score in the same inning.

Although I like your definition better (scoring 2+ and then not allowing a response). That always "felt" like more of a momentum swing.
 
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