I think he gets the homestand.
Ran the "odds" through Grok if the Mets lose the second game. Grok said 0% (Caveat- I used Grok for work stuff, and it is often wrong):
If they lose both games (or look particularly bad doing so), the pressure spikes significantly. Some analysts and former executives have suggested his leash could run out in the next few weeks if the losing continues, potentially by late April/early May or before Memorial Day. Insiders still say it's "too early" overall and that broader roster/injury issues (not just managerial tactics) are the bigger problem, with player support for Mendoza holding for now.
The "odds" feel more like low single digits for today, rising to maybe 20-40% chance of him being gone by mid-May if things don't improve dramatically. This is all speculative—no one has hard probabilities.
Also asked if the Cora firing affects the decision:
Mendoza has some player support so far. The front office (Stearns) has been heavily involved in game planning, so some see him partly as a scapegoat. Juan Soto is expected back soon, which could flip the narrative. The Mets' issues (hitting collapse, injuries, inconsistent pitching) go beyond just the manager. Cora had a longer track record and bigger contract; Mendoza's deal has less guaranteed money left.
If the Mets lose both games (especially if they look flat or make poor in-game decisions), the pressure becomes much more intense — fans will scream louder for change, and media will pile on with the “Boston did it, so why not us?” angle. It meaningfully raises the short-term risk of him being gone in the next 1–3 weeks if the skid continues. But don't expect an announcement between games or immediately post-doubleheader; that's not how these things usually go.The Cora firing makes the Mets' situation feel more urgent, but Stearns/Cohen still seem inclined to wait a bit longer unless things completely implode. Things can shift fast in New York, though — especially with the rival Red Sox setting a precedent for bold early moves. Check the scores; today's results will dictate how loud the calls get.
