On the competitive market position of Rutgers sports, let's use the analogy of shopping centers.
Livingston Mall, at first glance, appears to be a sure thing. Located in a rich suburb surrounded by rich suburbs in middle of North Jersey, population ~6 million. Perfect for retail real estate. Simon Property Group, the best retail real estate operator in the world, paid more than $500,000,000 for Livingston Mall in 1998.
Today, Livingston Mall is dead.
How did that happen? Ferocious competition in the market area. Short Hills, Garden State Plaza, Bridgewater Commons, Menlo Park, Jersey Gardens, Woodbury Common, rich suburbs with nice main streets, plus New York City.
Turn to Lincoln, Nebraska, metro area population 350,000, less than half the population of Middlesex County and less than 10% North Jersey's population. Lower incomes and lower wealth. One mall there, Gateway Mall. Terrible population and income demographics versus Livingston Mall. Yet Gateway Mall in Lincoln does fine, evidenced by the fact it was purchased by CBL Properties, a NYSE traded company, for
$44 million last month. Why? The property thrives because the nearest competition is in Omaha, 60 miles away.
We can use sports too. The US has more 6'4", 240 pound guys of any country in the world, by far, and a lot of them can run and catch a ball. For this reason, people say the
US is a sleeping giant in rugby.
Why is the US bad at rugby then?
Competition from high school and especially college football, plus basketball and baseball. The top division, FBS, employs 14,000 players in late teens and early twenties who enjoy world class training facilities, play in front of big crowds, and now get paid. Rugby can't compete. The US failed to qualify for the last Rugby World Cup because the US could not get through a losers bracket of Kenya, Hong Kong, Portugal, and US. On paper, the US should destroy these countries in a physical sport requiring big bodies, but doesn't. Kenya, Hong Kong, and Portugal don't have a lot of 6'4", 240 pound guys, but these athletes play rugby.
Rutgers athletics is like the Livingston Mall and US rugby - overwhelmed by the competition.