Deep Discussion: Can You Quantifiably Define a ‘Stud’ Without Using Hindsight?

Jul 30, 2024
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I want to start a more grounded discussion around something that gets thrown around all the time:

“stars”, “studs”, “dudes”

These words show up in basically every roster debate, especially when people talk about what it takes to win a championship. The problem is, everyone seems to mean something different when they say it, and the definition tends to change depending on the argument.

So I want to ask this in a more clear and consistent way.

How do you define a “star”, “stud”, or “dude”?

Try not to use player examples. Instead, describe it in a way that could actually be measured or identified. What specifically qualifies someone? Is it production, efficiency, accolades, recruiting rank, transfer value, role impact, something else? However you define it, it should be something that could hold up across different teams and seasons, not just based on feel.

Second, how many of those players do you think a team needs to win a national championship?

Be specific here too. Is there a minimum number? Does the type of player matter? Can different types make up for each other? Is there a point where having more doesn’t really add anything?

The reason I’m asking is because a lot of conversations just default to things like “you need more dudes” or “that team doesn’t have enough stars” or “talent wins in March.” But without a real definition behind it, those statements are hard to evaluate and usually just turn into hindsight or eye test arguments.

If people can actually define what they mean in a consistent and measurable way, then we can start to test it, compare different roster builds, and figure out what actually matters versus what just sounds right after the fact.

Curious how people would define it if they had to be precise about it.
 

FitchandMurray29

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So for me, stud options before games are played:
-consensus top 10 recruit
-legitimately on draft boards(not just for potential à la Kam Williams last year)
-paid at least in the top 5-10 at their position in the country(probably at least 3M currently depending on position)
 
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So for me, stud options before games are played:
-consensus top 10 recruit
-legitimately on draft boards(not just for potential à la Kam Williams last year)
-paid at least in the top 5-10 at their position in the country(probably at least 3M currently depending on position)
The money part is too new to really test, but we can test the top 10 recruit before games are played:

2022 Oscar Tshiebwe - Not a stud?
2024 DJ Wagner - Stud?
 
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MdWIldcat55

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Just as long as Pope recruits guys with some DOG in them...And yes, Oweh was one.

A Final Four team needs:

1 Star
2. Studs
3 Dudes
5 Dogs
 
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Shaudylo

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It’s tough to say in college because if you’re in school more than one year then you must have a major flaw that still has you in school .

If it’s a freshman going into his sophomore year you have to hope for a Labaron Philon type jump for stardom .

Yaxel I would say was a star this year as a senior .

I’m mainly talking about non freshmen .
 
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That wasn’t my opinion. I was using another person’s definition. Would you like to provide a testable definition?
Franchise type player that wins you games, games that matter most, make you contenders and win championships. The latter isn't necessarily required, but they are the type that put you into immediate consideration. Yaxel for instance is a stud. Otega Oweh is not.
 
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JwUKFan11

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Typically the top 10-15 guys in a class, whether that is the portal or HS recruiting are going to be your best shot at being very high impact. This doesn’t mean others also cannot be or that all of the “studs” ranking wise will hit.
 
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Franchise type player that wins you games, games that matter most, make you contenders and win championships. The latter isn't necessarily required, but they are the type that put you into immediate consideration. Yaxel for instance is a stud. Otega Oweh is not.
The point of the thread is not to use hindsight. Winning championships is something that occurs after you obtain the player. Can you define without using hindsight?
 

Wildcat_in_DC

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i think there is something to be said for guys who are top 10 in the portal, paid a ton at their position, but really have no desire to win and just want get a ton of cash and score a ton of points.

pj haggerty is a load. but has been to tcu, tusla, memphis, ksu and now texas a&m. what about those choices indicate he cares about winning as much as he does the other stuff?
 

FitchandMurray29

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The money part is too new to really test, but we can test the top 10 recruit before games are played:

2022 Oscar Tshiebwe - Not a stud?
2024 DJ Wagner - Stud?
Wagner didn’t turn out that way but as a top recruit the perception and expectation is to be

Oscar was a unique case pre NIL explosion. He would’ve been considered a stud yes. Top 25 prospect that averaged 11 and 9 as a freshman with 23 MPG at WVU. Would’ve been a no doubt top 10 mega expensive guy in the current landscape
 
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Typically the top 10-15 guys in a class, whether that is the portal or HS recruiting are going to be your best shot at being very high impact. This doesn’t mean others also cannot be or that all of the “studs” ranking wise will hit.
That’s a reasonable starting point, but I think it still needs to be tightened up if we’re going to use it as a real standard.

Saying “top 10–15 guys give you the best shot” is more about probability than definition. It tells us where impact is more likely to come from, but it doesn’t actually define what a “stud” is or how many you need to win.

A couple things I’d push on:
How often do championship teams actually have multiple top 10–15 guys on the roster at the same time? Especially in today’s portal era.

And are we talking about impact at the college level, or projected upside? Because those aren’t always the same players.

I think what you’re getting at is right in terms of likelihood, but for this discussion to go somewhere useful, it has to move from “these guys usually hit more often” to “this is the type and amount of impact a championship team consistently has.”

Otherwise we’re still just talking in general probabilities instead of something we can actually test against real teams.
 

#1 cat fan

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I want to start a more grounded discussion around something that gets thrown around all the time:

“stars”, “studs”, “dudes”

These words show up in basically every roster debate, especially when people talk about what it takes to win a championship. The problem is, everyone seems to mean something different when they say it, and the definition tends to change depending on the argument.

So I want to ask this in a more clear and consistent way.

How do you define a “star”, “stud”, or “dude”?

Try not to use player examples. Instead, describe it in a way that could actually be measured or identified. What specifically qualifies someone? Is it production, efficiency, accolades, recruiting rank, transfer value, role impact, something else? However you define it, it should be something that could hold up across different teams and seasons, not just based on feel.

Second, how many of those players do you think a team needs to win a national championship?

Be specific here too. Is there a minimum number? Does the type of player matter? Can different types make up for each other? Is there a point where having more doesn’t really add anything?

The reason I’m asking is because a lot of conversations just default to things like “you need more dudes” or “that team doesn’t have enough stars” or “talent wins in March.” But without a real definition behind it, those statements are hard to evaluate and usually just turn into hindsight or eye test arguments.

If people can actually define what they mean in a consistent and measurable way, then we can start to test it, compare different roster builds, and figure out what actually matters versus what just sounds right after the fact.

Curious how people would define it if they had to be precise about it.
It's pretty simple. For a guard or wing he has to able to drive to basket and create his own shot. Must
3 pt shooting is nice but not a must
 
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Wagner didn’t turn out that way but as a top recruit the perception and expectation is to be

Oscar was a unique case pre NIL explosion. He would’ve been considered a stud yes. Top 25 prospect that averaged 11 and 9 as a freshman with 23 MPG at WVU. Would’ve been a no doubt top 10 mega expensive guy in the current landscape
Earlier you said top 10 recruit but OT was not one. He was, however, a stud by your definition and so is Wagner? Does this mean the “stud” category would be broadened, in your opinion, to top 25 high school players?
 

FitchandMurray29

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Earlier you said top 10 recruit but OT was not one. He was, however, a stud by your definition and so is Wagner? Does this mean the “stud” category would be broadened, in your opinion, to top 25 high school players?
No Oscar would’ve fit the “stud” category through my 3rd option as one of the highest paid portal guys. My 3 I listed are separate.
 

paulcalhoun_rivals397471

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Team makeup can greatly affect if a player appears to be a stud or not as well. If a player's game is able to focus on his strengths as opposed to being needed to do things that are weaknesses he might even be an All American where in other situations he could be made to look just average. I think rankings and pay are less reliable measures. Skal was ranked number one and struggled in his role here and potentially overpaying someone does not make them any better than what actually are. Ideally someone making a large amount would be a byproduct of being a "stud" but not a defining measure.
 
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No Oscar would’ve fit the “stud” category through my 3rd option as one of the highest paid portal guys. My 3 I listed are separate.
We only have paid players officially for about 4 seasons. Your definition would exclude Charles Barkley, Shaquille O’Neal, Dan Issel and Pistol Pete Maravich from “stud” category, wouldn’t it?
 
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FitchandMurray29

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We only have paid players officially for about 4 seasons. Your definition would exclude Charles Barkley, Shaquille O’Neal, Dan Issel and Pistol Pete Maravich from “stud” category, wouldn’t it?
We are talking about the current landscape and what we would classify as “studs” in regards to offseason roster management.

I really don’t have strong opinions to how folks defined “studs” in April of 1975 going into 1976 season or some nonsense lol
 

paulcalhoun_rivals397471

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Kyle Wiltjer would be an example of a guy that had glaring weaknesses here but thrived in his role at Gonzaga. He did not qualify as a "stud" while here but became an All American in a different situation. My point is there is a separation between surefire performers and those who can succeed at a similar level based on their situation.
 
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We are talking about the current landscape and what we would classify as “studs” in regards to offseason roster management.

I really don’t have strong opinions to how folks defined “studs” in April of 1975 going into 1976 season or some nonsense lol
No, my post didn’t specify for the upcoming season, although we can use definitions there. I think we would agree that “studs” existed in the 2019 season, for example. I’m looking to get a testable definition. Choosing money amount won’t be that because 1.) we don’t truly know how much anyone got paid and 2.) it wasn’t permissible until four years ago.

And these posts are not meant to annoy. I’m genuinely curious what folks can come up with that I can use to test and analyze.

If it gets too deep at any point, completely understandable.
 
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FitchandMurray29

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No, my post didn’t specify for the upcoming season, although we can use definitions there. I think we would agree that “studs” existed in the 2019 season, for example. I’m looking to get a testable definition. Choosing money amount won’t be that because 1.) we don’t truly know how much anyone got paid and 2.) it wasn’t permissible until four years ago.

And these posts are not meant to annoy. I’m genuinely curious what folks can come up with that I can use to test and analyze.

If it gets too deep at any point, completely understandable.
You’re a good poster, I missed your intent with so much “studs” talk going on around here.

My thought might be to use the preseason watch list for each position. Aka Cousy Award/Jerry West award/etc. They do one for each position, not sure how many years they’ve done those preseason watch lists though.
 
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You’re a good poster, I missed your intent with so much “studs” talk going on around here.

My thought might be to use the preseason watch list for each position. Aka Cousy Award/Jerry West award/etc. They do one for each position, not sure how many years they’ve done those preseason watch lists though.
You’re talking about using college performance accolades, like preseason all-conference, preseason all-American etc?

So if you went into the year with a player predicted to be let’s say first team all-American, that would be a stud?
 

KyKevin

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You’re a good poster, I missed your intent with so much “studs” talk going on around here.



I missed the intent also.
 

FitchandMurray29

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You’re talking about using college performance accolades, like preseason all-conference, preseason all-American etc?

So if you went into the year with a player predicted to be let’s say first team all-American, that would be a stud?
Yes. Specifically I was using the watch lists which names like the top 20 guys at each position in the country. Might be a low bar for “stud” but think it could be used as a floor for your analysis. Like if people didn’t think you were top 20 in the country at your position preseason, then you clearly aren’t a stud.

Preseason All American is probably too exclusive a list imo.
 

JohnRambo82

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Flying On My Way GIF


Monday nitro is the stud of the board patrolling each thread with the precision of LeBron James flopping on the court to get a foul called
 
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You’re a good poster, I missed your intent with so much “studs” talk going on around here.



I missed the intent also.
The intent is I plan on doing a case study for any of the testable, detailed suggestions on this topic. I want to see if we can go beyond some of the topics I’ve previously looked at on this. I actually already have prepared some things for deep diving a few topics already.
 
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JwUKFan11

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That’s a reasonable starting point, but I think it still needs to be tightened up if we’re going to use it as a real standard.

Saying “top 10–15 guys give you the best shot” is more about probability than definition. It tells us where impact is more likely to come from, but it doesn’t actually define what a “stud” is or how many you need to win.

A couple things I’d push on:
How often do championship teams actually have multiple top 10–15 guys on the roster at the same time? Especially in today’s portal era.

And are we talking about impact at the college level, or projected upside? Because those aren’t always the same players.

I think what you’re getting at is right in terms of likelihood, but for this discussion to go somewhere useful, it has to move from “these guys usually hit more often” to “this is the type and amount of impact a championship team consistently has.”

Otherwise we’re still just talking in general probabilities instead of something we can actually test against real teams.
That's the fun part, there is no exact science to determining studs. Almost everyone thought Yaxel would be really good last year, but couldn't be 100% sure. There are so many examples on both sides of that.