Dan Hurley and his terrible first 2 UCONN years

kyjeff1

Heisman
Sep 8, 2012
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ok. we got to a S16. if that's your reason for celebrating, extend the man 10 years.

I care about the UK program being on top. You care about something different, clearly.
The UK program will never be on top of anything if you keep firing coaches every two years.

You would have fired every coach in the country if the UK AD ran things your way.
 

Skyguyb27

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Feb 12, 2008
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Since there is a lot of talk on how Poop was better than Hurley to start his career at a high major, I looked at their records. Started with mid major and compared only the first 2 years at UK/ UCONN. If you can't see a difference between the two archetypes presented here, I can't help you. Winning % in a vacuum does not tell a story.

Mid. Major:
Poop – Utah Valley + BYU (8 yrs). 187-108 (63.39%). 0 NCAAT wins (0-2)
Hurley – Wagner + Rhode Island (8 yrs). 151-105 (58.98%). 2 NCAAT wins (2-2, wins as 11 and 7)
Advantage: Hurley

UK/ UConn (first 2 yrs only):
Poop: 46-26 (63.89%). Y2 vs Y1: 5.6% decrease in win rate.
Best finish S16. Significant T25 wins vs Duke, Gonzaga, Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas. Matching blowout losses that I don’t need to get into.
UK record prior 2 seasons: 45-22 (67.16%). UK win rate diminished 3.27% by Poop

Hurley: 35-29 (54.69%). Y2 vs Y1: 12.8% increase in win rate.
UCONN record prior 2 seasons: 30-35 (46.15%). UCONN win rate improved 8.54% by Hurley.

Advantage: Hurley for flipping the outlook on the program and making significant strides year over year.

Hurley first tournament win at age 44
Poop first tournament win at age 52

If you can’t see why Hurley (even cherrypicking him at his “worst”) is not a higher potential candiate than Poop, I can’t help you. Things that I didn’t include in this summary include recruiting, wins over expectation, roster spending, among others). I don’t it’s necessary to go any deeper, it’s clear from even a surface look that 1 candidate had potential and the other is trending the wrong way.

The relative trends are pretty damning for Poop – he brought down the UK win rate, and he himself declined by over 5% year 1 to year 2. Hurley, on the other hand, improved the UConn program overall, and improved significantly year 1 to year 2.

If course, if you add the rest of Hurley’s body of work at UConn, you see that Y1->Y2 growth is sustained and plateaus at a title and >86%+ win seasons.

Reasons for not sticking with Poop Y3 and essentially wasting a year of UK basketball are there, IMO. Extrapolation from current trend and general low potential archetype would support a further decline of UK ball in Y3.
Not all coaches are created equal. Lotta babbling and no minds changed.
 
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20MRoster

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The UK program will never be on top of anything if you keep firing coaches every two years.

You would have fired every coach in the country if the UK AD ran things your way.
You are right -- we won't be anything firing coaches every 2 years. That's why you don't hire a guy like Pope to begin with. And if you make a mistake, you cut bait. The stakes are too high.
 
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ok. we got to a S16. if that's your reason for celebrating, extend the man 10 years.
I don’t celebrate Sweet Sixteens. Not whatsoever. But I do measure all teams in CBB, including teams that aren’t mine, by using objective measures. It allows me to parse through every season and provide fair critique rather than calling almost everything BAD or GOOD all the time. There’s a lot of variance and a lot of levels to the quality of college basketball seasons.

I care about the UK program being on top.
I do too. We can agree on this.

You care about something different, clearly.
Ad hominem is the first light that glows when someone has gotten pummeled in debate.

I like you and your post won’t change it. That said, if you want to bring your arguments to the intellectual arena, you need to think them through first. You set out to debunk Popeists on a point that’s held by a very small fraction of an already small niche and actually ceded one of the most significant arguments about Pope’s tenure. Truthfully, none of these debates matter anyway. I can show you XYZ exactly how I can grade every single college basketball team. I give you the methodology so that you can test it yourself. Then, most of the board won’t like that it results in someone saying something other than “this is the literal worst season of all time”, so they will find something they didn’t like about this particular season and ask for that to be included into my methodology. Then, I ask for the naysayers’ methodology and it is dead silence. Thus, message board debates aren’t debates at all. No consistency required, just pander and tickle ears. Hundred likes and a million style points but zero substance.
 

TFCat11

Heisman
Mar 25, 2019
5,745
10,074
108
Since there is a lot of talk on how Poop was better than Hurley to start his career at a high major, I looked at their records. Started with mid major and compared only the first 2 years at UK/ UCONN. If you can't see a difference between the two archetypes presented here, I can't help you. Winning % in a vacuum does not tell a story.

Mid. Major:
Poop – Utah Valley + BYU (8 yrs). 187-108 (63.39%). 0 NCAAT wins (0-2)
Hurley – Wagner + Rhode Island (8 yrs). 151-105 (58.98%). 2 NCAAT wins (2-2, wins as 11 and 7)
Advantage: Hurley

UK/ UConn (first 2 yrs only):
Poop: 46-26 (63.89%). Y2 vs Y1: 5.6% decrease in win rate.
Best finish S16. Significant T25 wins vs Duke, Gonzaga, Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas. Matching blowout losses that I don’t need to get into.
UK record prior 2 seasons: 45-22 (67.16%). UK win rate diminished 3.27% by Poop

Hurley: 35-29 (54.69%). Y2 vs Y1: 12.8% increase in win rate.
UCONN record prior 2 seasons: 30-35 (46.15%). UCONN win rate improved 8.54% by Hurley.

Advantage: Hurley for flipping the outlook on the program and making significant strides year over year.

Hurley first tournament win at age 44
Poop first tournament win at age 52

If you can’t see why Hurley (even cherrypicking him at his “worst”) is not a higher potential candiate than Poop, I can’t help you. Things that I didn’t include in this summary include recruiting, wins over expectation, roster spending, among others). I don’t it’s necessary to go any deeper, it’s clear from even a surface look that 1 candidate had potential and the other is trending the wrong way.

The relative trends are pretty damning for Poop – he brought down the UK win rate, and he himself declined by over 5% year 1 to year 2. Hurley, on the other hand, improved the UConn program overall, and improved significantly year 1 to year 2.

If course, if you add the rest of Hurley’s body of work at UConn, you see that Y1->Y2 growth is sustained and plateaus at a title and >86%+ win seasons.

Reasons for not sticking with Poop Y3 and essentially wasting a year of UK basketball are there, IMO. Extrapolation from current trend and general low potential archetype would support a further decline of UK ball in Y3.
Very nice work!

There’s not a single UK fan that doesn’t want Pope to succeed and stay at UK for 20 years, but the astute, educated fan, saw fairly early on, with major red flags this season, particularly his inability to recruit even remotely close to UK level, that we wasn’t going to make it long term with the program.

That’s one of the main reasons a lot of us knew it was time to cut bait, and change direction, but the AD who took an unprecedented gamble in hiring him, made it so, the next AD would be left cleaning up the mess…

So, now here we are, about 2-3 weeks away from knowing if a 3rd season was all for nothing, or perhaps Pope will find his stride, and make something of it!

With that said… Recruiting MUST improve dramatically, or we’re all just pissing in the wind.
 

kyjeff1

Heisman
Sep 8, 2012
50,470
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Richie Saunders was averaging 18PPG over 25 games before his injury, do you honestly believe JQ or JL were going to produce like that?!?
You think ppg is what decides how goid a player is?

You lose your best pg, you're going to suck.

You lose an elite center, you're at a huge disadvantage.

Losing Lowe, Kam and JQ was easily a bigger blow. Nit close. They still had a loaded tem, complete with a freak of nature lottery pick.
 
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I don’t celebrate Sweet Sixteens. Not whatsoever. But I do measure all teams in CBB, including teams that aren’t mine, by using objective measures. It allows me to parse through every season and provide fair critique rather than calling almost everything BAD or GOOD all the time. There’s a lot of variance and a lot of levels to the quality of college basketball seasons.


I do too. We can agree on this.


Ad hominem is the first light that glows when someone has gotten pummeled in debate.

I like you and your post won’t change it. That said, if you want to bring your arguments to the intellectual arena, you need to think them through first. You set out to debunk Popeists on a point that’s held by a very small fraction of an already small niche and actually ceded one of the most significant arguments about Pope’s tenure. Truthfully, none of these debates matter anyway. I can show you XYZ exactly how I can grade every single college basketball team. I give you the methodology so that you can test it yourself. Then, most of the board won’t like that it results in someone saying something other than “this is the literal worst season of all time”, so they will find something they didn’t like about this particular season and ask for that to be included into my methodology. Then, I ask for the naysayers’ methodology and it is dead silence. Thus, message board debates aren’t debates at all. No consistency required, just pander and tickle ears. Hundred likes and a million style points but zero substance.
I just set out to look at Hurley's 2 year split and was surprised there was so much positive behind it, because I was under the impression that those 2 years sucked. Pretty much the only reason I bothered posting.
 
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I just set out to look at Hurley's 2 year split and was surprised there was so much positive behind it, because I was under the impression that those 2 years sucked. Pretty much the only reason I bothered posting.
You called the coach Poop in your post, man. We all have biases but you should at least try to be objective if you want the people who disagree with you to invest in your points.
 
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Other than 1 season at Rhode Island, Hurley teams improved literally every year until his 2 title teams. Again, if you could say that about Pope, we would not be having this conversation .
Tommy Lloyd had an incredible year one at Arizona and regressed in year two. Last year had a disappointing year and this year is in the Final Four. Not every coach improves from year one to year two. And no, I’m not comparing Pope to Lloyd or anyone else — I don’t know how it will turn out with Pope either way unlike these amazing prognosticators who already know the future.
 

UKBB4Ever

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Facts carry no weight with Popettes.

Nor do they matter anyway.

Pope should have already been fired. Anyone that thinks Pope can coach high level basketball is just fooling themselves.

He may get a 3rd year to continue to fall down the ladder. He may not.

Some pretty influential people are saying he should go. Some pretty influential people are saying give him one more chance.

I am certain that none of them are taking advice from this website.
 

TFCat11

Heisman
Mar 25, 2019
5,745
10,074
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That's not what's being said at all.

You keep running around talking about career win percentage and saying that's who he is and will never get better.

However, it was quickly pointed out that Hurley's winning percentage for his career, prior to 2023, was worse than what Pope's was before UK.

Nobody, not one single person, said Pope = Hurley, all we ARE saying is, improvement can and has been done.

In fact, Pope accomplished many things last year that he never came close to doing at any of his previous jobs.
The defenders of Pope will never bring up the single most important factor separating the two arguments…

Hurley didn’t start his career at UCONN during the NIL era, where teams can be bought and built at a coach’s disposal!

Huge, huge difference, and there’s no comparison. Let’s just all agree to stop comparing anything Pope/ UK with any other coach before the NIL era.
 

UKJenning

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Here’s the issue.

We’re KENTUCKY! The greatest college basketball program in the country.

Who gives a **** what Hurley did at UCONN or Coach K did in the beginning at Duke.

We should not have to lower our rich history and tradition to the level of UCONN or Duke. Although both are currently kicking our ***.
 
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Tommy Lloyd had an incredible year one at Arizona and regressed in year two. Last year had a disappointing year and this year is in the Final Four. Not every coach improves from year one to year two. And no, I’m not comparing Pope to Lloyd or anyone else — I don’t know how it will turn out with Pope either way unlike these amazing prognosticators who already know the future.
He has only had 1 season with double digit losses tho. He’s earned more leeway. If Pope had had a 4-loss season here (this season or last), you think he’d have so many haters?
No one is claiming to be able to predict the future. But you can surely make an educated guess
 
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He has only had 1 season with double digit losses tho. He’s earned more leeway. If Pope had had a 4-loss season here (this season or last), you think he’d have so many haters?
No one is claiming to be able to predict the future. But you can surely make an educated guess
Read back to what you said and what I replied to. Take yourself out of it and read it all as if it wasn’t about something you’re passionate about. It’ll be clear that your point was debunked and you simply moved the goalposts. This is a very common thing when people want to “debate” something but aren’t willing to “be wrong.” I never debate something that I’m not willing to be wrong about. Otherwise, you’ll learn nothing and pull the rug/move to something else when you are unraveled.
 
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20MRoster

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You called the coach Poop in your post, man. We all have biases but you should at least try to be objective if you want the people who disagree with you to invest in your points.
I actually got that from you :LOL:. There was a post where you were being sarcastic and calling out Pope haters, and you called him Poop. I thought it was great!
 

Mike-D

Heisman
Jul 14, 2001
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The defenders of Pope will never bring up the single most important factor separating the two arguments…

Hurley didn’t start his career at UCONN during the NIL era, where teams can be bought and built at a coach’s disposal!

Huge, huge difference, and there’s no comparison. Let’s just all agree to stop comparing anything Pope/ UK with any other coach before the NIL era.

That's why the entire premise of the argument is flawed and ridiculous. We all know Pope had top 3 money to build a roster this season. He failed miserably.

Alright, let's try this one more time. But I must say, Pope won 63% of his games this season, the same way he did at BYU. When someone consistently shows you who they are, maybe believe them.
 

kyjeff1

Heisman
Sep 8, 2012
50,470
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Hurley comparison makes no sense. Never has. His teams improved every season (barring the Covid year), and then he won it all his 5th and 6th years there. If we were better this year than last year, people wouldn’t be cliff jumping.

y’all probably assume I’ve always been a Pope hater but I was on board the first year. It ended poorly but there were definitely bright spots. I was bored of Cal so Pope and that opening press conference actually reinvigorated my fandom a lot.

But early on in this season, somewhere in the atrocious Gonzaga-Louisville-MSU stretch of stinkers, it became abundantly clear to me that he’s not the guy. He’s just not. And it’s a pointless waste of a season to try and run it back with him. We need a rebuild to return to elite status. Every year with Pope, we’re postponing that.
You didn't need to type all that, nobody is comparing Pope to Dan Hirley, just saying Hurley proved, that through time, a bad coach can become great. That's it.
 

Yeti_SZN

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Since there is a lot of talk on how Poop was better than Hurley to start his career at a high major, I looked at their records. Started with mid major and compared only the first 2 years at UK/ UCONN. If you can't see a difference between the two archetypes presented here, I can't help you. Winning % in a vacuum does not tell a story.

Mid. Major:
Poop – Utah Valley + BYU (8 yrs). 187-108 (63.39%). 0 NCAAT wins (0-2)
Hurley – Wagner + Rhode Island (8 yrs). 151-105 (58.98%). 2 NCAAT wins (2-2, wins as 11 and 7)
Advantage: Hurley

UK/ UConn (first 2 yrs only):
Poop: 46-26 (63.89%). Y2 vs Y1: 5.6% decrease in win rate.
Best finish S16. Significant T25 wins vs Duke, Gonzaga, Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas. Matching blowout losses that I don’t need to get into.
UK record prior 2 seasons: 45-22 (67.16%). UK win rate diminished 3.27% by Poop

Hurley: 35-29 (54.69%). Y2 vs Y1: 12.8% increase in win rate.
UCONN record prior 2 seasons: 30-35 (46.15%). UCONN win rate improved 8.54% by Hurley.

Advantage: Hurley for flipping the outlook on the program and making significant strides year over year.

Hurley first tournament win at age 44
Poop first tournament win at age 52

If you can’t see why Hurley (even cherrypicking him at his “worst”) is not a higher potential candiate than Poop, I can’t help you. Things that I didn’t include in this summary include recruiting, wins over expectation, roster spending, among others). I don’t it’s necessary to go any deeper, it’s clear from even a surface look that 1 candidate had potential and the other is trending the wrong way.

The relative trends are pretty damning for Poop – he brought down the UK win rate, and he himself declined by over 5% year 1 to year 2. Hurley, on the other hand, improved the UConn program overall, and improved significantly year 1 to year 2.

If course, if you add the rest of Hurley’s body of work at UConn, you see that Y1->Y2 growth is sustained and plateaus at a title and >86%+ win seasons.

Reasons for not sticking with Poop Y3 and essentially wasting a year of UK basketball are there, IMO. Extrapolation from current trend and general low potential archetype would support a further decline of UK ball in Y3.
You forgot the part where Hurley took over a program that would get a 2 year probation and scholarship reduction. Kevin Ollie drove it into the ground while Pope inherited a program that was a 2 and 3 seed two years prior. There is no comparison it is not the same. It is actually a worse look that Hurley was almost just as successful as Pope at a program in handcuffs
 
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You forgot the part where Hurley took over a program that would get a 2 year probation and scholarship reduction. Kevin Ollie drove it into the ground while Pope inherited a program that was a 2 and 3 seed two years prior. There is no comparison it is not the same. It is actually a worse look that Hurley was almost just as successful as Pope at a program in handcuffs
Dude they all know that. Everybody knows Pope is an embarrassment. Just give up, lol, it ain't worth the hit to your blood pressure.
 

Tim0808

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Interesting. So it almost sounds like the argument is to compare the before/after.

I’ll bet that doesn’t apply to ONE tournament win in the FOUR full seasons prior to Pope and THREE tournament wins in TWO seasons so far. I also bet it doesn’t apply to earning a THREE seed in the NCAA tournament, a mark that has been surpassed at Kentucky one time since 2019.

Do you care about consistency? Which is more important: being right or getting it right?
Earning a 3 seed since 2019 is a big deal? That is definitely misleading the data.

2019 #2 seed
2020 tournament canceled
2021- shortened season (some teams like Duke did not play that year. However, Kentucky was willing to compete)
2022- #2 seed
2023 -#6 seed
2024 -#3 seed
2025-#3 seed
2026-#7 seed

Making a #3 seed is not a big deal. It is the norm at worst.
 
Last edited:

BlueSince92

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Since there is a lot of talk on how Poop was better than Hurley to start his career at a high major, I looked at their records. Started with mid major and compared only the first 2 years at UK/ UCONN. If you can't see a difference between the two archetypes presented here, I can't help you. Winning % in a vacuum does not tell a story.

Mid. Major:
Poop – Utah Valley + BYU (8 yrs). 187-108 (63.39%). 0 NCAAT wins (0-2)
Hurley – Wagner + Rhode Island (8 yrs). 151-105 (58.98%). 2 NCAAT wins (2-2, wins as 11 and 7)
Advantage: Hurley

UK/ UConn (first 2 yrs only):
Poop: 46-26 (63.89%). Y2 vs Y1: 5.6% decrease in win rate.
Best finish S16. Significant T25 wins vs Duke, Gonzaga, Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas. Matching blowout losses that I don’t need to get into.
UK record prior 2 seasons: 45-22 (67.16%). UK win rate diminished 3.27% by Poop

Hurley: 35-29 (54.69%). Y2 vs Y1: 12.8% increase in win rate.
UCONN record prior 2 seasons: 30-35 (46.15%). UCONN win rate improved 8.54% by Hurley.

Advantage: Hurley for flipping the outlook on the program and making significant strides year over year.

Hurley first tournament win at age 44
Poop first tournament win at age 52

If you can’t see why Hurley (even cherrypicking him at his “worst”) is not a higher potential candiate than Poop, I can’t help you. Things that I didn’t include in this summary include recruiting, wins over expectation, roster spending, among others). I don’t it’s necessary to go any deeper, it’s clear from even a surface look that 1 candidate had potential and the other is trending the wrong way.

The relative trends are pretty damning for Poop – he brought down the UK win rate, and he himself declined by over 5% year 1 to year 2. Hurley, on the other hand, improved the UConn program overall, and improved significantly year 1 to year 2.

If course, if you add the rest of Hurley’s body of work at UConn, you see that Y1->Y2 growth is sustained and plateaus at a title and >86%+ win seasons.

Reasons for not sticking with Poop Y3 and essentially wasting a year of UK basketball are there, IMO. Extrapolation from current trend and general low potential archetype would support a further decline of UK ball in Y3.
Also don’t forget in Hurley’s first two years…..

NIL budget: $0.00

# of players allowed to transfer into UCONN without sitting out a year: 0
 

caliman

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You didn't need to type all that, nobody is comparing Pope to Dan Hirley, just saying Hurley proved, that through time, a bad coach can become great. That's it.
Well your entire premise is wrong to start with because Hurley was never a bad coach.

He did show what a coach that knows what he’s doing can do when he goes from a mid major hoping to pull an upset or 2, to one of the top programs in the country.
 

20MRoster

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You forgot the part where Hurley took over a program that would get a 2 year probation and scholarship reduction. Kevin Ollie drove it into the ground while Pope inherited a program that was a 2 and 3 seed two years prior. There is no comparison it is not the same. It is actually a worse look that Hurley was almost just as successful as Pope at a program in handcuffs
Yes. I would say the Ollie history was partly factored in with the "prior 2 years", but absolutely additional weight can be given to just how in shambles that program was when Hurley took the reins.
 

FLBBNFAN

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Ok. I don’t know how anyone would know that one way or another yet. Sample size is far too small.


When you’re calling the coach Poop, I know this is rigorous and impartial work you are doing. Simply digging to find answers without bias lol


We haven’t had one over the two year span he has been here. Will he be in the future? I have no idea… I don’t have a crystal ball, but I have a magic eight ball. I shook it and it said “Not likely, but possible.”


Year 1 - Good
Year 2 - Bad

Year 3 will tell the tale.


This is called assuming your premise. ^ You simply declared with a wave of the hand that the only reason he’s getting a third year is administrative incompetence. Certainly, this confirms there can be literally zero reasons otherwise. This means you are one hundred percent correct and there is no need for debate. Anyone who wants a third year is doing so in solidarity with the administration, probably some type of hidden agenda. You have shed a light on their folly and this was a noble deed, sir.
Honestly what else would you call our reasoning other than administration incompetence, being complacent or cowardly.

If he was running your company would you of given him a 3rd year given year 2 regressed . Year 1 was better than expected no doubt but let's not pretend it was a elite season. S16 is not elite and we lost a bunch of games in the same fashion as this year.

Yeah he's getting a 3rd year due to the administration not performance and most people know that even if they dont want to admit it.
 

FLBBNFAN

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I

If I was looking at straight win % I would. You are right on that. But if I look at it from the lens of "what was the program's win % before he got here" and " has he improved from Year 1 to Year 2", I would think differently. I don't see any talking points on Hurley going beyond that first layer.
Your also talking different time frames. At that time coaches were given 3-5 years to build a program . Now its different because you can build a good team quickly so your leash is shorter now.
 
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