Is a UConn national championship inevitable? Is the Elite 8 IOWA's ceiling?

Franisdaman · Mar 16, 2026

I hope UCLA or Texas (or someone else) knocks UConn & South Carolina out. We need new blood/more parity in the women's game.

Unfortunately, I think IOWA's ceiling is the Elite 8.

Here is how an Associated Press writer sees things going:

2nd round winners:

Fort Worth 1: UConn, Maryland, Ohio State, Vanderbilt.

Sacramento 2: UCLA, Minnesota, Baylor, LSU.

Fort Worth 3: Texas, Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan.

Sacramento 4: South Carolina, Oklahoma, TCU, IOWA.

Regional finalists (Elite 8)

Fort Worth 1: UConn, Vanderbilt.

Sacramento 2: UCLA, LSU.

Fort Worth 3: Texas, Louisville.

Sacramento 4: South Carolina, IOWA.

Final Four

UConn, UCLA, Texas, South Carolina. (Yes, the four #1 seeds.)

UConn beats South Carolina. Texas beats UCLA.

And in the end, it’s UConn over Texas for the national title.

Picking the NCAA women's bracket: UConn beats Texas for another national championship

UConn looks like the safest pick to win the women’s NCAA tournament, but the real key in bracket pools is nailing early upsets.

apnews.com

Old_wrestling_fan2 · Mar 16, 2026

I can't envision any scenario where iowa beats UConn or UCLA this year. But I think beating SC is a "maybe"...not likely, but a possibility I think.

Now then, that is not to say that they are a lock to get the chance to take on SC to then advance to the FF, but it is plausible IMO.

If they get to the Elite 8 I think that is a fantastic season on their part and the Sweet 16 is not a bad year either. Play the games, get the experience and come back even stronger next year.

AFM22 · Mar 16, 2026

I think ucla is actually a more proven team. Stronger SOS and 18 Q1 wins compared to UCONN’s 9.

UCONN could def win it all but it’s not a given.

The Big Z · Mar 16, 2026

AFM22 said:
I think ucla is actually a more proven team. Stronger SOS and 18 Q1 wins compared to UCONN’s 9.

UCONN could def win it all but it’s not a given.

We will see how much mentally tougher UCLA is this year vs last. Another year older and experienced plus adding another really good piece to the starting lineup. And UConn has lost Bueckers, but again, UConn beat UCLA by 34 pts in the Final 4 last year. I'm pulling for UCLA but not sure of their coach against Geno if it comes down to it.

KurtWarner · Mar 16, 2026

All I know is I'll be thrilled if the hawks are in the elite 8. After that I'm not really concerned

citizenHawk1 · Mar 16, 2026

Imagine we will all see the UConn vs. UCLA showdown. Whatever.

Yeah, E8 is definitely the ceiling for Iowa, and just SW16 would be a great success. (Counting on CHA to help get them there.) Hopefully they reach that ceiling. Would be a fantastic achievement for this team.

*Been watching highlights of Hannah playing in the '23 and '24 Final 4s. Would truly be something for her to help Iowa put together another run. A *highly unprobable* return to the F4 would make this senior class nigh untouchable in the record books.

Randon · Mar 16, 2026

I like Iowa's draw. If we get to the elite 8 we have a legitimate shot against SC who I believe is the weakest of the four number 1 seeds.

the24fan · Mar 16, 2026

E8 Would be a huge accomplishment with this young group.
You keep that narrative going with recruits that you are a player even without Clark.
UCLA/UCONN feels inevitable at this point

Scott559 · Mar 16, 2026

Randon said:
I like Iowa's draw. If we get to the elite 8 we have a legitimate shot against SC who I believe is the weakest of the four number 1 seeds.

Just for perspective, S.Carolina has 8 McDonalds AA‘s on their roster. Iowa winning vs S.Carolina would still be a David vs Goliath type matchup.

FranklinHawk · Mar 16, 2026

Scott559 said:
Just for perspective, S.Carolina has 8 McDonalds AA‘s on their roster. Iowa winning vs S.Carolina would still be a David vs Goliath type matchup.

The scenario was much the same a few years ago when we met them in the F4. Of course we know Caitlin Clark isn't walking through that door this time, but anything is possible. I do think UCLA and UCONN are a bridge too far.

DukeSlater · Mar 16, 2026

Scott559 said:
Just for perspective, S.Carolina has 8 McDonalds AA‘s on their roster. Iowa winning vs S.Carolina would still be a David vs Goliath type matchup.

As I keep saying about the David vs. Goliath analogy people love so much--David won.

KurtWarner · Mar 16, 2026

Scott559 said:
Just for perspective, S.Carolina has 8 McDonalds AA‘s on their roster. Iowa winning vs S.Carolina would still be a David vs Goliath type matchup.

Cc was the reason Iowa could overcome such odds. Without someone like her it will take a flawless game with them shooting out their arses to have a shot against s Carolina imo. We just don't have the horses, hopefully someday we will. MW is a very good place to start

Zach Jump · Mar 16, 2026

UpstreamHawkeye · Mar 16, 2026

Zach Jump said:

Post the UConn game too, in case Iowa needs it

Franisdaman · Mar 16, 2026

When does Caitlin get a statue outside/inside Carver? Outside would be cool (with her shooting in/towards Carver).

* All time leading NCAA scorer (men & women)
* 2 appearances in the national championship game
* The catalyst for our current sell out streak
* Record TV viewership her junior & senior seasons (was must see TV)
* The catalyst for getting the program to where it is today (one of the top 5-8 programs in the country?)
* Made Iowa a national program when it comes to recruiting

I know I am missing some bullet points (the list is endless); what's she's done for Iowa WBB goes well beyond the scoring & assists.

KurtWarner · Mar 16, 2026

Zach Jump said:

Arguably the greatest moment in hawk women bb history

52317Hawk · Mar 16, 2026

AFM22 said:
I think ucla is actually a more proven team. Stronger SOS and 18 Q1 wins compared to UCONN’s 9.

UCLA could def win it all but it’s not a given.

My POV FIFY. UConn's to win but could get pressed by UCLA.

LetsGoHawks83 · Mar 16, 2026

Zach Jump said:

Might be the loudest and most aggressive SWISHES I've ever heard.

Literally and figuratively. Those FTs slammed the door on that game.

Wobmam Rulez! · Mar 16, 2026

UConn plays in a conference that is less challenging than the other power 4. Yes, they are and have been great. However, we're talking about this season.

If they faced the B1G schedule and road games at Michigan, Iowa, UCLA, USC and even UDub, I'm not sure they're undefeated. Personally, I think this is UCLA's title to lose this year.

LetsGoHawks83 · Mar 17, 2026

Wobmam Rulez! said:
UConn plays in a conference that is less challenging than the other power 4. Yes, they are and have been great. However, we're talking about this season.

If they faced the B1G schedule and road games at Michigan, Iowa, UCLA, USC and even UDub, I'm not sure they're undefeated. Personally, I think this is UCLA's title to lose this year.

For context... I've barely watched UConn

...

But UCLA will be damn hard for anyone to beat.

QChawks · Mar 17, 2026

here are my odds

R64 win 95% we should beat FD easily
R32 win 65% assuming a tight Georgia win
S16 win 50% TCU could go either way
E8 win 33% USC would be really tough
SF win .03% UCONN would be a miracle
NC win .01% UCLA/TEXAS would be a miracle x 2

SCHawkFan · Mar 17, 2026

Is a UConn national championship inevitable? No.

Is the Elite 8 IOWA's ceiling? Yes.

uihawk82 · Mar 17, 2026

Old_wrestling_fan2 said:
I can't envision any scenario where iowa beats UConn or UCLA this year. But I think beating SC is a "maybe"...not likely, but a possibility I think.

Now then, that is not to say that they are a lock to get the chance to take on SC to then advance to the FF, but it is plausible IMO.

If they get to the Elite 8 I think that is a fantastic season on their part and the Sweet 16 is not a bad year either. Play the games, get the experience and come back even stronger next year.

Forget this, I thought I was on the men's BBall forum, duh I may have said this already but UConn got blasted in their tourney title game. They could but they have been up and down some this year

Old_wrestling_fan2 · Mar 17, 2026

Zach Jump said:

Stone cold! What a moment for the Hawks, Clark and all of the fans!!

OnlyTheObscure · Mar 17, 2026

I wouldn’t be surprised if all the #1 seeds win all their games by 25+ until they face the 2 seeds and even then they might win by 20

seems to be no parity

Franisdaman · Mar 17, 2026

It takes a lot to beat UConn.

The last time IOWA did it:

Wobmam Rulez! · Mar 17, 2026

SCHawkFan said:
Is a UConn national championship inevitable? No.

Is the Elite 8 IOWA's ceiling? Yes.

I don't want to but I reluctantly agree.

Kceasthawk@77 · Mar 20, 2026

citizenHawk1 said:
Imagine we will all see the UConn vs. UCLA showdown. Whatever.

Yeah, E8 is definitely the ceiling for Iowa, and just SW16 would be a great success. (Counting on CHA to help get them there.) Hopefully they reach that ceiling. Would be a fantastic achievement for this team.

*Been watching highlights of Hannah playing in the '23 and '24 Final 4s. Would truly be something for her to help Iowa put together another run. A *highly unprobable* return to the F4 would make this senior class nigh untouchable in the record books.

This is not a dig on this team at all. I think they have over achieved most expectations to this point. I guess my question is WHY "this senior class is nigh untouchable"? I assume your talking about overall wins for their careers? Still as always the context here means a great deal. This senior classes final record would be heavily weighted because they had the games best player, (possibly of ALL time), carrying them their first two season. Fact. Their junior year was okay, but not really note worthy. This season the teams top players are for the majority in their last two classes, mostly the soph class. That's just what it is.

Greg12 · Mar 20, 2026

Old_wrestling_fan2 said:
Stone cold! What a moment for the Hawks, Clark and all of the fans!!

A couple years ago I heard Kate and/ or Monika on a podcast. While they were lined up for those free throws one of the Cocks reminded her teammate to box out, and the teammate replied, “She’s not gonna miss.”

citizenHawk1 · Mar 20, 2026

Kceasthawk@77 said:
This is not a dig on this team at all. I think they have over achieved most expectations to this point. I guess my question is WHY "this senior class is nigh untouchable"? I assume your talking about overall wins for their careers? Still as always the context here means a great deal. This senior classes final record would be heavily weighted because they had the games best player, (possibly of ALL time), carrying them their first two season. Fact. Their junior year was okay, but not really note worthy. This season the teams top players are for the majority in their last two classes, mostly the soph class. That's just what it is.

It's really just something in the books, rather than stating anything about the play or quality/composition of the team. If the class were to play in a 3rd Final 4, those players (Stuelke, Feuerbach, McCabe, Gyamfi, Johnson) will have done something in the record books (played/participated/been a part of) that we probably/maybe won't see again.

*But just so this doesn't go off the rails, I saw that the computers give them less than 1% chance of doing that.

Kceasthawk@77 · Mar 20, 2026

citizenHawk1 said:
It's really just something in the books, rather than stating anything about the play or quality/composition of the team. If the class were to play in a 3rd Final 4, those players (Stuelke, Feuerbach, McCabe, Gyamfi, Johnson) will have done something in the record books (played/participated/been a part of) that we probably/maybe won't see again.

*But just so this doesn't go off the rails, I saw that the computers give them less than 1% chance of doing that.

I guess. Stuelke certainly played a key role. Kylie and McCabe played small roles, and Jada and KJ (whose a junior) practiced some of the time and n ot even that for good parts of their careers. I guess I bristle at making some statement about that "senior class" being something of note" because of three Final 4's (if they were to get there) which would basically put them ahead of Clarks senior group in some kind of all time footnote, which would be a mind boggling false narrative.

citizenHawk1 · Mar 20, 2026

Kceasthawk@77 said:
I guess. Stuelke certainly played a key role. Kylie and McCabe played small roles, and Jada and KJ (whose a junior) practiced some of the time and n ot even that for good parts of their careers. I guess I bristle at making some statement about that "senior class" being something of note" because of three Final 4's (if they were to get there) which would basically put them ahead of Clarks senior group in some kind of all time footnote, which would be a mind boggling false narrative.

There's no false narrative involved. It just is what it is. If Iowa could elevate into some powerhouse the footnote wouldn't even (possibly) exist, so let's hope for that success.
*Yeah, a hiccup with Johnson timeline.

Tom Paris · Mar 20, 2026

Again, I am beyond sick of UConn.

QChawks · Mar 23, 2026

Randon said:
I like Iowa's draw. If we get to the elite 8 we have a legitimate shot against SC who I believe is the weakest of the four number 1 seeds.

this aged well

Franisdaman · Mar 23, 2026

#1 seed UCLA will advance tonight to the Sweet 16.

And check out these scores, where the #1 seeds all won by at least 40 points.

South Carolina 101-61 USC (Mar 23, 2026) Box Score - ESPN

Box score for the South Carolina Gamecocks vs. USC Trojans NCAAW game from March 23, 2026 on ESPN. Includes all points, rebounds and steals stats.

www.espn.com

UConn 98-45 Syracuse (Mar 23, 2026) Box Score - ESPN

Box score for the UConn Huskies vs. Syracuse Orange NCAAW game from March 23, 2026 on ESPN. Includes all points, rebounds and steals stats.

www.espn.com

Texas 100-58 Oregon (Mar 22, 2026) Box Score - ESPN

Box score for the Texas Longhorns vs. Oregon Ducks NCAAW game from March 22, 2026 on ESPN. Includes all points, rebounds and steals stats.

www.espn.com

OnlyTheObscure · Mar 24, 2026

OnlyTheObscure said:
I wouldn’t be surprised if all the #1 seeds win all their games by 25+ until they face the 2 seeds and even then they might win by 20

seems to be no parity

Did I stutter?

Franisdaman · Mar 30, 2026

On Friday, UConn will play the winner of tonight's South Carolina/TCU game.

Here was their Elite 8 result:

UConn 70-52 Notre Dame (Mar 29, 2026) Box Score - ESPN

Box score for the UConn Huskies vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish NCAAW game from March 29, 2026 on ESPN. Includes all points, rebounds and steals stats.

www.espn.com

UpstreamHawkeye · Mar 30, 2026

What happened after 2023? That year, two number 1 seeds lost at home in the second round. We thought that was a new beginning.

Franisdaman · Tuesday at 8:47 PM

UpstreamHawkeye said:
What happened after 2023? That year, two number 1 seeds lost at home in the second round. We thought that was a new beginning.

Over the last 2 seasons (post Caitlin), every single 1 seed has made the Final Four.

This is South Carolina's 6th consecutive trip to the Final Four.

Here were the Elite 8 results:

Is a UConn national championship inevitable? Is the Elite 8 IOWA's ceiling?

Heisman

2nd round winners:​

Regional finalists (Elite 8)​

Final Four​

All-Conference

Heisman

All-Conference

All-Conference

Senior

All-Conference

All-Conference

All-American

Sophomore

All-Conference

All-Conference

All-Conference

All-Conference

Heisman

All-Conference

All-Conference

All-American

All-Conference

All-American

Heisman

All-American

Is a UConn national championship inevitable? No. Is the Elite 8 IOWA's ceiling? Yes.​

All-Conference

All-Conference

All-Conference

Heisman

All-Conference

Is a UConn national championship inevitable? No. ​

​

Is the Elite 8 IOWA's ceiling? Yes.​

All-Conference

All-Conference

Senior

All-Conference

Senior

Heisman

Heisman

Heisman

All-Conference

Heisman

All-Conference

Heisman

2nd round winners:

Regional finalists (Elite 8)

Final Four

Is a UConn national championship inevitable? No.

Is the Elite 8 IOWA's ceiling? Yes.

Is a UConn national championship inevitable? No.

Is the Elite 8 IOWA's ceiling? Yes.