I think our odds would have been decent. The narrative is that we lost the third match against UT last year because it’s so hard to beat a team three times. That’s mostly superstition. Sure, each attempt gives an opposing coach another chance to try different tactics and discover one that beats you. But if Barnes had really discovered anything in game three last year I doubt we would have swept him this year.
In reality he probably beat us in the S16 because we were just more beat up at that point. This time around if we’d played them after ISU, Kam would have been still getting back into form, that’s true. But also Aberdeen has come a long way holding the keys to PG since we last played them. I think that at least balances out. Plus this time, if anything, Pope’s already had a glimpse at whatever antics Barnes might try to get his team over the hump after falling twice in a season and is less likely to be surprised by anything.
Hard to predict something like that for sure but for my money the odds would have been at least slightly in our favor. I said before the ISU game I liked our chances against UT better than against ISU even if Joshua Jefferson was going to be out. I still feel the same way.