Based on ESPN article/analysis. SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking. Along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather. Preseason projections on four primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:
1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. Combine last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on current returning production numbers, and you're pretty far down the projections road.
2. Recent history. Using a chunk of information from previous seasons gives us a good measure of overall program health, even in this era of wild swings in quality. It still stands to reason that a team that has played well for only one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good -- and has likely spent bigger on its roster -- for years on end (and vice versa).
3. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by both the past few years of recruiting rankings and the quality of incoming transfers, though as you might have predicted while watching Indiana surge to the national title last season, this doesn't carry nearly the weight that it once did. A decade or so ago, this piece made up about 20-25% of the preseason formula. Now it's about 1-2%. That's pretty incredible, isn't it?
4. Coaching change effects.
2026 college football SP+ rankings for all 138 FBS teams
The first SP+ rankings, plus strength of schedule and résumé SP+, for the 2026 season.
www.espn.com
