OT: County level/Metro Population Estimates for July 2025 released today

OG Goat Holder said:

I think Hernando has a chance to hold on. I haven’t been there in a long time, but if they can keep the retail, crappy apartments, and things like that in check, they have a chance. Brandon is trying to do that. Madison’s obviously done a good job but they don’t have a core downtown/square type area like the other two, I wonder if it stays up once that mayor is done. Contain riff raff in other areas, is the key.

In non-suburbia area, Tupelo has done a decent job too. Obviously the college towns. That’s about it.

I don’t count the coast since it’s limited by hurricanes. It’ll always be cool, but just limited.

ETA: At some point, you have to invest to keep a place nice. You can’t just continually outrun stuff.

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If you don't want to continually outrun stuff, really need to have school choice. The first step to a lot of places hollowing out is people chasing good schools rather than spending money on private school tuition. It's almost impossible for Jackson to really recover if to have a family there, you need to have a minimum $200k+ family income to cover the cost of school for just 2 kids below 15% of your gross income.

Hattiesburg could possibly explode and be a really cool town if there was school choice. Their historical district and downtown area could really be awesome if living there didn't cost private school tuition.

DesotoCountyDawg said:

I mean, yeah probably but you’re talking years from now. Hernando is still in the growth stage.

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To be fair, it's really the areas south of the city proper itself that Hernando has annexed, or that has Hernando mailing addresses. That 269 corridor.

DesotoCountyDawg said:

The schools are busting at the seams up here. The brand new Hernando high that just opened this year is already at capacity.

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That's because of another stupid MS law. When you build a new school, It can only have the capacity of the number of students that you had when you started building the new school. This happened in Brandon too. The day it opened, they had to have a bunch of temporary trailer "buildings".

MagnoliaHunter said:

That's because of another stupid MS law. When you build a new school, It can only have the capacity of the number of students that you had when you started building the new school. This happened in Brandon too. The day it opened, they had to have a bunch of temporary trailer "buildings".

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While not quite as dramatic as Brandon, it was a similar situation at Lewisburg too.

Southwest MS population growth/decline is flat and has been for decades. Industrial/commercial large-scale employers are few, but the forestry, cattle and oil-and-gas industries are holding their own. Tate won't look this way for any kind of $billion$ investment.

Heck, I lived in Bruce for a while. If you can live in Bruce, MS, you can pretty much live anywhere.

Wesson Bulldog said:

Southwest MS population growth/decline is flat and has been for decades. Industrial/commercial large-scale employers are few, but the forestry, cattle and oil-and-gas industries are holding their own. Tate won't look this way for any kind of $billion$ investment.

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Jefferson, Pike & Wilkinson bringing y'all down pretty bad.

leeinator said:

Heck, I lived in Bruce for a while. If you can live in Bruce, MS, you can pretty much live anywhere.

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you are right about that....we have some land and a cabin there....if i spend more than two nights there i get real anxious....but Bruce is at least trying....they passed beer and liquor, whereas Calhoun city didnt .....every since that happened, you have seen some more investment....and with lafayette county exploding, there is some spill over effect....there are quite a few folks from Bruce that commute to Oxford every week....

Wesson Bulldog said:

Southwest MS population growth/decline is flat and has been for decades. Industrial/commercial large-scale employers are few, but the forestry, cattle and oil-and-gas industries are holding their own. Tate won't look this way for any kind of $billion$ investment.

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What kind of $1B investment would southwest MS be attractive for? Not close to population center. I think the oil and gas is more or less played out, such that chemical plants aren't competitive? Only class I is CN and it's really onlly north/south. Is there major pipeline capacity? I'm just not sure that is one you can blame on Tater

DesotoCountyDawg said:

Hernandos main problem is infrastructure.

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johnson86-1 said:

If you don't want to continually outrun stuff, really need to have school choice. The first step to a lot of places hollowing out is people chasing good schools rather than spending money on private school tuition. It's almost impossible for Jackson to really recover if to have a family there, you need to have a minimum $200k+ family income to cover the cost of school for just 2 kids below 15% of your gross income.

Hattiesburg could possibly explode and be a really cool town if there was school choice. Their historical district and downtown area could really be awesome if living there didn't cost private school tuition.

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Maybe I’m not seeing it. How does school choice help schools that are already full? How would that help Hernando or Lewisburg? You won’t have many kids leave those schools to attend other Desoto County schools. Everyone is trying to get into those districts. I asked that question in a meeting and the speaker who was promoting school choice said it wouldn’t help the schools that much that are basically already running at capacity.

johnson86-1 said:

If you don't want to continually outrun stuff, really need to have school choice. The first step to a lot of places hollowing out is people chasing good schools rather than spending money on private school tuition. It's almost impossible for Jackson to really recover if to have a family there, you need to have a minimum $200k+ family income to cover the cost of school for just 2 kids below 15% of your gross income.

Hattiesburg could possibly explode and be a really cool town if there was school choice. Their historical district and downtown area could really be awesome if living there didn't cost private school tuition.

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How do you figure that? Most of the “good” school districts are maxed out. How is school choice going to change anything.

johnson86-1 said:

If you don't want to continually outrun stuff, really need to have school choice. The first step to a lot of places hollowing out is people chasing good schools rather than spending money on private school tuition. It's almost impossible for Jackson to really recover if to have a family there, you need to have a minimum $200k+ family income to cover the cost of school for just 2 kids below 15% of your gross income.

Hattiesburg could possibly explode and be a really cool town if there was school choice. Their historical district and downtown area could really be awesome if living there didn't cost private school tuition.

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I'm with the others on school choice. I don't think it really matters all that much, and it'll always be limited by drive time. And if the schools are full they are full.

Bigger thing with that is vouchers for homeschool and private school. No expressing an opinion on vouchers - I'm simply saying that's the bigger part of school choice - rather than changing public districts.

At some point, all 'nice' areas, that aren't small towns, eventually will develop private schools and there would be plenty of people with means there, to keep them afloat.

1msucub said:

Yep. They should've taken some of the money they spent on its aesthetics and put it towards more buildings and practicality...it was full the day it opened.

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Just so you know, Mississippi schools are only allowed to build for a 10% overage the day the first shovel is in the ground. If the school grows by 10% before the school is open - its full the day it opens. Happened to Germantown and Ridgeland both in Madison County. Germantown had portables the first year they were open.

HWY51dog said:

Maybe I’m not seeing it. How does school choice help schools that are already full? How would that help Hernando or Lewisburg? You won’t have many kids leave those schools to attend other Desoto County schools. Everyone is trying to get into those districts. I asked that question in a meeting and the speaker who was promoting school choice said it wouldn’t help the schools that much that are basically already running at capacity.

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I was responding to Goat's comment about Hernando "holding on" and needing to avoid apartment complexes. I don't know that school choice would help with crowding issues in their current dynamics. Possibly if there are people that would live in Southhaven but for the schools, there would be some relief. Maybe in the medium term you'd have new schools pop up to relieve more pressure.

DesotoCountyDawg said:

How do you figure that? Most of the “good” school districts are maxed out. How is school choice going to change anything.

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"Good" school districts are maxed out because people are flocking to them to avoid paying private school tuition. Oak Grove likely would have never had the crowding issues they faced if people weren't moving there essentially just for the school district. You give people the option 20 years ago to stay in Hattiesburg without having to pay full freight for private school, and you probably have a more vibrant Hattiesburg and PCS, Sacred Heart, and Oak Grove school district probably all grew incrementally instead of Oak Grove exploding.

Semi-related, I have heard people talk about the benefit of being out around Canebrake (I guess right past canebrake?) being that you could go to Sumrall schools. So they move 30 minutes outside of hattiesburg for the benefit of being able to drive another 20 minutes the wrong direction to go to Sumrall schools? THat is what I am talking about constantly trying to outrun stuff. Granted I don't think those people are avoiding PCS or Sacred Heart (or whatever the catholic school there is) because of money.

OG Goat Holder said:

I'm with the others on school choice. I don't think it really matters all that much, and it'll always be limited by drive time. And if the schools are full they are full.

Bigger thing with that is vouchers for homeschool and private school. No expressing an opinion on vouchers - I'm simply saying that's the bigger part of school choice - rather than changing public districts.

At some point, all 'nice' areas, that aren't small towns, eventually will develop private schools and there would be plenty of people with means there, to keep them afloat.

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Right, and the people without the means will be forced to commute an hour to have "free" public schools, or they will have to make big financial sacrifices just to pay for a decent education that other people in the state get included with their tax dollars.

johnson86-1 said:

What kind of $1B investment would southwest MS be attractive for? Not close to population center. I think the oil and gas is more or less played out, such that chemical plants aren't competitive? Only class I is CN and it's really onlly north/south. Is there major pipeline capacity? I'm just not sure that is one you can blame on Tater

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It's not a blame on Tate by no means. We do not have enough qualified workers or workers, period, that aren't on welfare. And, the schools aren't turning out many Rhodes scholars in Willkinson, Amite, Jefferson, Claiborne, Adams and Walthall counties. However, ANY industrial investment around Brookhaven would be appreciated - something to bring a 100+ jobs paying like he's been touting on his social media posts. It seems as though he does not even look this way at all.

HWY51dog said:

Lewisburg is changing before Hernando, it’s already started there. ( most people don’t realize it yet) Hopefully, Hernando will continue to stay away from large apartment complex’s and that will help among other things.

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Didn’t realize that about Lewisburg but not surprised. It also potentially had further to fall. Apartment’s destroyed Germantown,TN. It makes property taxes of no consequence. Same is happening along Bill Morris toward Collierville.

615dawg said:

Just so you know, Mississippi schools are only allowed to build for a 10% overage the day the first shovel is in the ground. If the school grows by 10% before the school is open - its full the day it opens. Happened to Germantown and Ridgeland both in Madison County. Germantown had portables the first year they were open.

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We were told at a town hall meeting, or school board meeting or something like that, that you could only build to to current enrollment numbers at the time new construction was started. That may not be right, but it was what we were told by officials.

615dawg said:

Just so you know, Mississippi schools are only allowed to build for a 10% overage the day the first shovel is in the ground. If the school grows by 10% before the school is open - its full the day it opens. Happened to Germantown and Ridgeland both in Madison County. Germantown had portables the first year they were open.

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That's good info...thanks for that, sir.

johnson86-1 said:

I was responding to Goat's comment about Hernando "holding on" and needing to avoid apartment complexes. I don't know that school choice would help with crowding issues in their current dynamics. Possibly if there are people that would live in Southhaven but for the schools, there would be some relief. Maybe in the medium term you'd have new schools pop up to relieve more pressure.

"Good" school districts are maxed out because people are flocking to them to avoid paying private school tuition. Oak Grove likely would have never had the crowding issues they faced if people weren't moving there essentially just for the school district. You give people the option 20 years ago to stay in Hattiesburg without having to pay full freight for private school, and you probably have a more vibrant Hattiesburg and PCS, Sacred Heart, and Oak Grove school district probably all grew incrementally instead of Oak Grove exploding.

Semi-related, I have heard people talk about the benefit of being out around Canebrake (I guess right past canebrake?) being that you could go to Sumrall schools. So they move 30 minutes outside of hattiesburg for the benefit of being able to drive another 20 minutes the wrong direction to go to Sumrall schools? THat is what I am talking about constantly trying to outrun stuff. Granted I don't think those people are avoiding PCS or Sacred Heart (or whatever the catholic school there is) because of money.



Right, and the people without the means will be forced to commute an hour to have "free" public schools, or they will have to make big financial sacrifices just to pay for a decent education that other people in the state get included with their tax dollars.

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Well, to be honest, people without the means simply won’t be there. OR, they’ll be the apartment types and will just go to that local public.

Got to sacrifice something to be in a nice area. If you just chase the new, farther away cheap place, and said place doesn’t have an anchor for investment, thus it stays cheap, riff raff will find it.

To me that’s why Anywhereville USA Suburbia usually goes down. Lewisburg for example. Hernando, I would imagine is like Brandon. County seat, has a downtown, has nice older homes and a core of people that care about it and want to stay nice. Not necessarily a bunch of suburbanite slobs chasing a bigger house and ‘good schools’.

DesotoCountyDawg said:

How do you figure that? Most of the “good” school districts are maxed out. How is school choice going to change anything.

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All “school choice” would really do is subsidize private school tuition for people already sending their kids to private school. The poor still won’t be able to afford it. Bad policy. And should be illegal.

Lots of coded language in this thread.

OG Goat Holder said:

I think Hernando has a chance to hold on. I haven’t been there in a long time, but if they can keep the retail, crappy apartments, and things like that in check, they have a chance. Brandon is trying to do that. Madison’s obviously done a good job but they don’t have a core downtown/square type area like the other two, I wonder if it stays up once that mayor is done. Contain riff raff in other areas, is the key.

In non-suburbia area, Tupelo has done a decent job too. Obviously the college towns. That’s about it.

I don’t count the coast since it’s limited by hurricanes. It’ll always be cool, but just limited.

ETA: At some point, you have to invest to keep a place nice. You can’t just continually outrun stuff.

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The coast is in a major growth cycle in population and economic development. WTH does limited by hurricanes even mean? That would apply to all coastal areas prone to storms. The coast is the engine that drives the state.

TheBannerM said:

Lots of coded language in this thread.

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I men, its SPS.

TheBannerM said:

Lots of coded language in this thread.

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I'll decipher the code for you. People don't like living near crime. You can infer what you want from that. Your inference might be considered racism.

TheBannerM said:

Lots of coded language in this thread.

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mstateglfr said:

I men, it’s SPS.

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Oh for 17s sake, race has nothing to do with it. 17 you both.

My next door neighbors are African American. You know why they moved here from Memphis? Less crime.

Our best friends that have kids our age that my family spent the day with shopping and we ate dinner tonight with are African American. You know why they moved here from the Delta? Better schools and less crime. People follow better opportunities for their kids and less crime no matter the race.

I love the subtle racist potshot from a Lilly white Iowa resident.

patdog said:

All “school choice” would really do is subsidize private school tuition for people already sending their kids to private school. The poor still won’t be able to afford it. Bad policy. And should be illegal.

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there's a ton of money pushing school choice, I wish someone would, "follow the money."

DesotoCountyDawg said:

Oh for 17s sake, race has nothing to do with it. 17 you both.

My next door neighbors are African American. You know why they moved here from Memphis? Less crime.

Our best friends that have kids our age that my family spent the day with shopping and we ate dinner tonight with are African American. You know why they moved here from the Delta? Better schools and less crime. People follow better opportunities for their kids and less crime no matter the race.

I love the subtle racist potshot from a Lilly white Iowa resident.

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It’s not race, it’s culture. The same people throwing the racist jabs around would die within 24 hours in Frayser, Whitehaven, Hickory Hill, or Orange Mound in Memphis. They’d maybe last 48 hours in Greenville or Clarksdale. And in many instances, like it or not, they’d be killed because they’re white and not supposed to be there by the locals’ standard.
Offer us something better than third-world living in the MS Delta or Downtown Jackson and people would consider moving there. Otherwise, an American Mogadishu just isn’t in the cards for moving my family. Lock it.