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What Did You Expect? - NCAA Team Performance Relative to Expectations

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Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,685
4,480
113
Cowboy1989 said:
Excellent post! I just can't get over the 3 true freshman champs for OSU. They exceeded my wildest expectations.
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I don't have exact class status data, but I think it has only happened once before - 1947, during the brief post-war era of freshman eligibility. But that is apples and oranges so I am comfortable calling this year unprecedented.
 
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OSU48

Junior
May 29, 2001
702
348
63
It was my understanding that this is the first time there have been 3 true freshmen national champions from one school.
 
glorycowboy

glorycowboy

All-Conference
Jun 10, 2021
786
1,831
78
DT continues to exceed my expectations. If that trend continues, he will somehow magically compete with PSU for title next year and keep it within 10-20 points.
 
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Chasingthirty-five

All-Conference
Apr 23, 2023
1,845
3,968
113
Would be interested to know for those who beat expectations, how much came per wrestler. Like for us Zach, versus Iowa with Arnold.
 
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OHkie

Senior
Oct 14, 2018
466
530
66
Chasingthirty-five said:
Would be interested to know for those who beat expectations, how much came per wrestler. Like for us Zach, versus Iowa with Arnold.
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In the classic version of track wrestling you can still see tournament statistics such as most pins least amount of time, seed to place differential, and other criteria. You can sort these by team or individual. I spend a lot of time there after tournaments.
 
pokepelli

pokepelli

All-American
Jul 10, 2005
35,242
7,510
103
We would have been a hell of a lot closer to 1st place if not for those team point deductions.
 
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OHkie

Senior
Oct 14, 2018
466
530
66
Parity is good for the sport but obviously lacking, although the big 12 tries to make a push the numbers are scewed by OSU. The big 10 had 23% of the field but finished with 50% of the all Americans. And only 3 conferences were represented with champions. 20 all Americans from the big 12 is admirable but shows the need for continued scheduling outside the conference and the importance of NDI.
 
Old Number Nine

Old Number Nine

All-Conference
Jan 20, 2005
1,711
1,676
113
Wrestleknownothing said:
wrestling.guru

Expectations - 2026 NCAA Tournament Viewed Through the Lens of What Could Have Been | Wrestling.Guru

Expectations are funny things. There is no universal standard for them. We can both look at the same set of facts and data about the world but develop wildl ...
wrestling.guru wrestling.guru

Just dropped a new post analyzing team performance relative to expectations.
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Man, it sucks to see us on the Red side of that chart three times. 1984 was a complete "suck it" tourney. Only Sheets and Monday wrestled to seed; 1 - 1. Lynes seeded 3 - finished 4; Dykeman 2 - 4; Perry, Skove & Anderson - 3/6, 2/5, 1/5. But the real kick in the nuts was Smith 3 - DNP. Not a good start to a lustrous career (Dee can take solace in this).

The saddest thing about this time was that '83 and '85 (I was at both of these in OKC) weren't much better and the 83/84 finishes cost Chesbro his job.
 
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