Sankey warns of rough waters ahead

615dawg

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That chart doesn’t make any sense.

Where did it come from?

Every team should have at least 12 games studied in the data set.

MSU has 17ing four. Most teams have 10 or less. Many only have 5-7.
It makes sense but needs an explainer. We only played four games that are Neilsen-rated. SEC Network games don't count. So Alabama has 10 because their 2 SEC network games don't count toward ratings. We have 4 because we only played 4 games that were Neilsen rated (Southern Miss, Arizona State, Georgia, Ole Miss).

5.2 million watched the Egg Bowl and 2.3 watched UGA. So 2.1 million watched ASU and USM combined. Not ideal.
 
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Dawgzilla2

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Sankey is so full of hot air.

Again, the SEC did this to themselves. The court rulings and state laws tied a lot of hands related to NIL and compensation structure. But, the transfer portal? That’s all in Sankey’s lap…..and that is the big problem that is driving all of this. None of this death spiral with skyrocketing costs for players would be happening without it, and development would still be a thing.

The SEC was by far the most powerful and influential seat at the table when all these new rules around the portal and NIL were being crafted. They could have drawn a line in the sand regarding the portal. But no, they actually liked the idea of their members being able to get better quickly by plucking a hotshot QB or DE from the G5 or lower tier P5 schools….without that player having to sit. They wanted to be able to bring a gun to a knife fight in the transfer recruiting scene, without realizing at all that the B1G was going to be bringing nuclear weapons to the same knife fight.

Just complete idiocy for shortsighted / short term gains. Absolutely destroyed the SEC’s status in college football, and destroyed college football in general as we know it.
How is the transfer portal Sankey's fault? The unlimited transfer rule is the result of the NCAA settling a lawsuit brought by several State AGs, and joined by the DOJ. the writing was on the wall.

Now, if you are blaming Sankey for the portal itself, I dont think that's the problem. Its the unlimited transfers.
 

Drebin

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How is the transfer portal Sankey's fault? The unlimited transfer rule is the result of the NCAA settling a lawsuit brought by several State AGs, and joined by the DOJ. the writing was on the wall.

Now, if you are blaming Sankey for the portal itself, I dont think that's the problem. Its the unlimited transfers.
The first time someone tries to claw back the unlimited transfers, someone is going to sue (and win) in court and it's not going to have any teeth.

Congress has to act and write legislation granting the NCAA ultimate governing authority that will withstand legal scrutiny. And that will happen before much longer. And I think that will be the first domino to fall in what eventually leads to the bigger powerhouses forming their own league and breaking away from the NCAA.
 

mstateglfr

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We only played four games that are Neilsen-rated.
5.2 million watched the Egg Bowl and 2.3 watched UGA. So 2.1 million watched ASU and USM combined. Not ideal.
Unfair.**
MSU fans are all cord cutters that stream games and watch replay clips on our favorite social media platforms! There are way more watching MSU games.


 

615dawg

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Unfair.**
MSU fans are all cord cutters that stream games and watch replay clips on our favorite social media platforms! There are way more watching MSU games.


Someone once told me that it is rare to see an SEC Network game eclipse 1 million, and that most of their games are under 500k. They know this, so they don't want games Neilsen-rated. The Big Ten Network is Neilsen rated.


Their highest football game was 1.8 million (Ohio State-Purdue. SEC is probably higher but not much. Most of their games were significantly under a million.
 

Dawgzilla2

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The first time someone tries to claw back the unlimited transfers, someone is going to sue (and win) in court and it's not going to have any teeth.

Congress has to act and write legislation granting the NCAA ultimate governing authority that will withstand legal scrutiny. And that will happen before much longer. And I think that will be the first domino to fall in what eventually leads to the bigger powerhouses forming their own league and breaking away from the NCAA.
Im not arguing semantics or anything, but I dont think there will be legislation naming any particular organization as being the governing authority, unless an actual government agency is established (yikes!!)

Any potential legislation will likely just set up ground rules to follow to avoid anti trust liability, and will allow for the schools to have a governing body such as the NCAA and the CSC.

People always seem to forget that the NCAA IS the schools; its not some separate entity that has hijacked college sports. Its is controlled by the college presidents.

There has always been tension between the big money schools and the smaller schools, and that tension has grown as the money grows. So, it makes sense to have different sets of rules based on finances, and you let the schools decide which level they want to be at.

I wouldnt mind the big schools leaving to do their own thing. Im just not sure how beneficial it would be for them. Maybe the current level of interest would transfer with them, but maybe not. Part of the fun of college sports is the David and Goliath matches.

As im typing this, Duke is having to mount a comeback against Sienna. Who wants to lose that spectacle?
 

Perd Hapley

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Limiting player movement to schools doesn’t survive the courts either.
There’s nothing in any court ruling at all regarding transfer rules. Everything has centered around players’ rights to NIL compensation, and requisite back pay for them not having that right leading up to now.

The legal definition of NIL has absolutely not a damn thing to do with which school someone attends, or even whether or not they even play a sport….let alone how good they are at said sport. Has nothing to do with their geographic location either. There is no legal argument to be made that limiting transfers has any impact whatsoever to true NIL value.

Now, would players actual compensation ceilings be greatly limited by restricting transfers? Absolutely. But the only way to successfully argue that specific point in court is to concede that the compensation isn’t actually NIL at all, but is actually pay-for-play. As such, the legal statutes / rulings and player rights regarding NIL do not apply, and have no relevance.
 

8dog

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There’s nothing in any court ruling at all regarding transfer rules. Everything has centered around players’ rights to NIL compensation, and requisite back pay for them not having that right leading up to now.

The legal definition of NIL has absolutely not a damn thing to do with which school someone attends, or even whether or not they even play a sport….let alone how good they are at said sport. Has nothing to do with their geographic location either. There is no legal argument to be made that limiting transfers has any impact whatsoever to true NIL value.

Now, would players actual compensation ceilings be greatly limited by restricting transfers? Absolutely. But the only way to successfully argue that specific point in court is to concede that the compensation isn’t actually NIL at all, but is actually pay-for-play. As such, the legal statutes / rulings and player rights regarding NIL do not apply, and have no relevance.

This court entered an injunction which led the ncaa to make multiple transfers permanent. Legal experts agree that anything limiting movement would violate anti trust laws
 

L4Dawg

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Exactly.
The NCAA was inept and didnt get ahead of things in the beginning, but there really hasnt been an opportunity for them to correct ship. You cant correct things when the landscape is changing so frequently and its so fractured due to federal court rulings, state court rulings, federal legislation(the threat of), and state legislation.

None of us could successfully manage and lead, given all that chaos, inconsistency, and frequent change.
The NCAA was not inept. They really didn't want to see things go the way they have. They were right. The courts did this to us, not the NCAA.
 

Perd Hapley

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This court entered an injunction which led the ncaa to make multiple transfers permanent. Legal experts agree that anything limiting movement would violate anti trust laws
I wasn’t even referring to the multiple transfer rule. I was talking about way back in 2021 when they first allowed you to transfer once without sitting out. It never should have even gotten that far without an actual legal decision requiring it. That was the single biggest contributor to this current disaster. Of course, maybe you could go back even further to the exemption for grad transfers.

Once you say “yeah, you can transfer once and play right away, but not twice!”, you’ve already put yourself on very shaky legal ground and in a position where you are going to have to bend over and take whatever is coming your way from a lawsuit standpoint. If the rules were always - “if you transfer, you sit a year”, regardless of grad transfer, first transfer, second transfer, or whatever….there is at least a consistent application that is much easier to defend in court. As soon as you waiver, that’s when the Tom Mars’ of the world swoop in and cite all the inconsistencies and double-standards.
 

Perd Hapley

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It makes sense but needs an explainer. We only played four games that are Neilsen-rated. SEC Network games don't count. So Alabama has 10 because their 2 SEC network games don't count toward ratings. We have 4 because we only played 4 games that were Neilsen rated (Southern Miss, Arizona State, Georgia, Ole Miss).

5.2 million watched the Egg Bowl and 2.3 watched UGA. So 2.1 million watched ASU and USM combined. Not ideal.
Well then I would say that’s a very incomplete data set.

In MSU’s case, you’re looking at 2 matchups with another opponent in Mississippi, games nobody is 17ing watching because it’s a small state and nobody outside really cares, minus a handful of idiots who actually thought OM had any chance of losing to us and tuned in for a bit to see if CFP picture might change.

Arizona State game started at like 9 or 10 PM in the Eastern Time zone….region with 70% of the US population.

Georgia was 11 AM and was pretty much a beatdown.

It’d be pretty hard to pick any game on the schedule with fewer viewers than those 4, except the G5 / FCS opponents. Far more complete picture would be available if viewership was known for all the other conference opponents.
 

Perd Hapley

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How is the transfer portal Sankey's fault? The unlimited transfer rule is the result of the NCAA settling a lawsuit brought by several State AGs, and joined by the DOJ. the writing was on the wall.

Now, if you are blaming Sankey for the portal itself, I dont think that's the problem. Its the unlimited transfers.
Not solely his fault, but again I’m not even talking about the unlimited transfer rule. I’m talking about the 2021 rule. Sankey had a platform to resist and influence a conservative approach to all stakeholders on that one. But instead, he embraced it with open arms as he thought there would be a net benefit to the league. And now he’s crying foul that it didn’t turn out that way.

Once the change in 2021 occurred, unlimited transfers became a foregone conclusion from a legal standpoint.
 

mstateglfr

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The NCAA was not inept. They really didn't want to see things go the way they have. They were right. The courts did this to us, not the NCAA.
The NCAA was inept in how they handled things BEFORE it escalated. Their inconsistency and draconian policies led to the escalation.
 
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OG Goat Holder

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I wasn’t even referring to the multiple transfer rule. I was talking about way back in 2021 when they first allowed you to transfer once without sitting out. It never should have even gotten that far without an actual legal decision requiring it. That was the single biggest contributor to this current disaster. Of course, maybe you could go back even further to the exemption for grad transfers.

Once you say “yeah, you can transfer once and play right away, but not twice!”, you’ve already put yourself on very shaky legal ground and in a position where you are going to have to bend over and take whatever is coming your way from a lawsuit standpoint. If the rules were always - “if you transfer, you sit a year”, regardless of grad transfer, first transfer, second transfer, or whatever….there is at least a consistent application that is much easier to defend in court. As soon as you waiver, that’s when the Tom Mars’ of the world swoop in and cite all the inconsistencies and double-standards.
There was, or was about to be, a lawsuit coming at that time, too. All of this was due to lawsuits. So you're wrong in that regard, the NCAA only did that in response to legal pressure.
 

OG Goat Holder

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The NCAA was inept in how they handled things BEFORE it escalated. Their inconsistency and draconian policies led to the escalation.
Yep instead of seeing the writing on the wall they doubled down with the stupidity that was the death penalty. That said, it scared people into submission for a while, but once that trickle started (Ed O'Bannon), it didn't take long to become a waterfall.
 

Perd Hapley

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There was, or was about to be, a lawsuit coming at that time, too. All of this was due to lawsuits. So you're wrong in that regard, the NCAA only did that in response to legal pressure.
“Legal pressure” and actual court rulings are two very different things.

If you as an influential figurehead know that a potential policy change is bad, do what you can to stop it, and MAKE the courts put their money where their mouth is.
 

OG Goat Holder

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“Legal pressure” and actual court rulings are two very different things.
I don't care enough to argue about this or look it up. But if you dig deep enough, I think you'll see that it's all the same. Without it, they don't do it. Everything became more pressurized after COVID. It was coming.
 

leeinator

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I'll simply put it like this. I will support Mississippi State sports the same whether we are in the SEC or the SBC.
 

Seinfeld

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I'd be perfectly happy seeing us in a 2nd tier conference with the bottom half of the SEC plus some ACC and/or Big 12 schools.
Initially, I think it would be amazing. Ohio State, Bama, Georgia, Michigan… let’s face it, those big money schools have been running pro franchises for decades, and while they may have the largest fan bases, I think a lot of people are overselling how much they’d be missed from college football as a whole for the average fan. Sure, it’d be a big media hit, but it also might make college football fun again for a lot of people.

My biggest fear would be the unavoidable poaching that would then follow. They’d probably start with 16 or so teams, but every damn year there’d be talk about who they’re taking next year, and we’re right back to the wealthy power schools ruining everything again.
 

Xenomorph

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As long as the athletes are students taking scholarships that are (directly or indirectly) subsidized by funds from federal and state governments none of it is ever going to work.

The only way to fix it permanently is to unwind college academics from college athletics.
 

Dawg1976

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As long as the athletes are students taking scholarships that are (directly or indirectly) subsidized by funds from federal and state governments none of it is ever going to work.

The only way to fix it permanently is to unwind college academics from college athletics.
Just unwind it into division II of the NFL. Play the games on campus. Half kidding but who knows where this is headed.
 

615dawg

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I think one day we will look back and say that Indiana winning the national championship saved half the Power 4 from being irrelevant.

I think 3-4 years ago, the winds were blowing toward a 24 or 32 team upper level of college football. Now I think its aligning so the Power 4 conferences will separate, with the Pac 12 trying to make a play to make it the Power 5 again.

The Group of 5 programs that have been left behind are done for.

NIL has done one positive thing and I don't think it meant to. The year before NIL was full on enacted, 88 of the ESPN Top 100 high school recruits went to six schools. Now that talent is being spread around to 30+ schools.
 

HRMSU

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Sankey is so full of hot air.

Again, the SEC did this to themselves. The court rulings and state laws tied a lot of hands related to NIL and compensation structure. But, the transfer portal? That’s all in Sankey’s lap…..and that is the big problem that is driving all of this. None of this death spiral with skyrocketing costs for players would be happening without it, and development would still be a thing.

The SEC was by far the most powerful and influential seat at the table when all these new rules around the portal and NIL were being crafted. They could have drawn a line in the sand regarding the portal. But no, they actually liked the idea of their members being able to get better quickly by plucking a hotshot QB or DE from the G5 or lower tier P5 schools….without that player having to sit. They wanted to be able to bring a gun to a knife fight in the transfer recruiting scene, without realizing at all that the B1G was going to be bringing nuclear weapons to the same knife fight.

Just complete idiocy for shortsighted / short term gains. Absolutely destroyed the SEC’s status in college football, and destroyed college football in general as we know it.
Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered
 

mstateglfr

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They were trying to prevent the escalation.
They continually cut off their nose to spite their face.
If that is what you call them trying to prevent escalation, then that is what I call 'inept'...because that perfectly describes an organization that did what they did in an attempt to prevent escalation.

For years, they ignored a deluge of voiced concerns over their draconian policies, inconsistent application and enforcement of the rules, and slow response and investigation to alleged violations.
They did themselves no favors.



I have heard of your kind- people who still view the NCAA as competent and not a large reason for us being where we are now. Your kind will be on display in museums one day, like Neanderthals and Denisovans. There will be a whole exhibit about a group that didnt blame the NCAA for dragging its feet when it needed to run and get ahead of an obviously changing landscape.
 

Howiefeltersnstch

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Somebody posted on here one time that its all about the money. Only the money. The money comes from ESPN, Disney, etc. The schools will do as they are directed by the folks giving out the money. TV would love to pool up the top 25/30 viewership attracting teams for one big contract. The rest that are left they will throw the crumbs to. The "schools" dont care about the game or the fans. They just want that money so they can all give themselves a raise. Typical commies
 

L4Dawg

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They continually cut off their nose to spite their face.
If that is what you call them trying to prevent escalation, then that is what I call 'inept'...because that perfectly describes an organization that did what they did in an attempt to prevent escalation.

For years, they ignored a deluge of voiced concerns over their draconian policies, inconsistent application and enforcement of the rules, and slow response and investigation to alleged violations.
They did themselves no favors.



I have heard of your kind- people who still view the NCAA as competent and not a large reason for us being where we are now. Your kind will be on display in museums one day, like Neanderthals and Denisovans. There will be a whole exhibit about a group that didnt blame the NCAA for dragging its feet when it needed to run and get ahead of an obviously changing landscape.
The courts are totally responsible for where we are now. None of this stuff would have ever happened without the courts being involved.
 

patdog

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The courts are totally responsible for where we are now. None of this stuff would have ever happened without the courts being involved.
If the NCAA had come up with reasonable rules for paying players & easing up the limitations in transfers 15 years ago, these lawsuits may have never happened.
 

mstateglfr

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The courts are totally responsible for where we are now. None of this stuff would have ever happened without the courts being involved.
The courts got involved because the NCAA didnt do enough, and soon enough, to keep players from feeling like the courts were the only way forward.

Negotiation should precede litigation. The NCAA simply wasnt interested in or capable of realizing the where things were headed, so they largely let the negotiation step just not happen.
 
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L4Dawg

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The courts got involved because the NCAA didnt do enough, and soon enough, to keep players from feeling like the courts were the only way forward.

Negotiation should precede litigation. The NCAA simply wasnt interested in or capable of realizing the where things were headed, so they largely let the negotiation step just not happen.
The NCAA did not want to go down the road you are describing at all. There really wasn’t much to negotiate about.
 

L4Dawg

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If the NCAA had come up with reasonable rules for paying players & easing up the limitations in transfers 15 years ago, these lawsuits may have never happened.
The NCAA did not want to pay players, or have unlimited transfers. That’s what y'all are missing.
 
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o_Hot Rock

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I could totally see five or six leave the SEC, five or six leave the B1G, and a handful leave the ACC to form a 12-14 team super league.
They will need more to get national interest. College football has always had such a large following because each Great team had a whole conference of people behind it whether they said so or not. Notre Dame survives as an independent because of it's the Catholics. No other College team has that kind of national branding or especially international branding.

The SEC made it popular to be for teams from the SEC with chants but every other conference had eyeballs on big games because their team was part of it all. 12 - 14 won't do it. There are plenty of rich places to make it 30-50 teams. State is flirting with that cut line depending on how deep they go.
 

o_Hot Rock

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Not sure if this is the NCAA's fault though. Courts and new rules have kinda rendered them toothless. I think these programs need a governing body to save them from themselves.
It's absolutely the NCAA's fault. They did nothing while it imploded around them. The reason they sat on their hands is the Universities do not want to make athletes employees. That happens and all of a sudden they liabilities they don't have right now.
 

Seinfeld

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Yep instead of seeing the writing on the wall they doubled down with the stupidity that was the death penalty. That said, it scared people into submission for a while, but once that trickle started (Ed O'Bannon), it didn't take long to become a waterfall.
I'm not one to spend time defending the NCAA, but O'Bannon's lawsuit was in 2009. A ruling was finally made in 2014 that resulted in small player payments plus the NCAA's adoption of an increased stipend for athletes. Then, it was a full 5 years after that when Newsom and California blew the top off of everything by passing state law to allow NIL in their state.

It's fine if people want to believe that all of this was inevitable because they'd probably be right, but I think that people are overstating how much nation-wide push there was for NIL. There wasn't until California decided to do their thing, and then everyone including the NCAA had to play catch up in hurry to try to maintain some semblance of competitive balance.

Should the NCAA have acted sooner? I can buy that, but we'd still be where we are today. There is nothing that the NCAA could've ever put in place that would've resulted in the benefactors thinking "yeah, that's enough $$ for me". This would've all still ended up in court, and the decision would still be that limitations can't be placed on player payments or transfers. It may just have happened sooner
 
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mstateglfr

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The NCAA did not want to go down the road you are describing at all. There really wasn’t much to negotiate about.
Oh my god. THAT IS THE ISSUE! THAT IS WHAT I AND OTHERS HAVE BEEN SAYING.
The NCAA didnt want to go down the road- they chose to not get in front of things, and here we are.

Welcome to yesterday's conversation where I also said the NCAA chose to to get ahead of things.

The decision to do nothing, to me, shows the NCAA's ineptness.
 

patdog

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The NCAA did not want to pay players, or have unlimited transfers. That’s what y'all are missing.
I’m not missing it. But what they should have realized was is was coming one way or the other. They chose the hard way & are paying the price.
 
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I foresee the SEC and Big conferences scavenging the Big 12 and ACC of their best teams and pulling away (along with ND) forming a new football league. It’ll be similar to the NFL with the SEC and Big 10 mirroring the NFC and AFC.
 

patdog

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I foresee the SEC and Big conferences scavenging the Big 12 and ACC of their best teams and pulling away (along with ND) forming a new football league. It’ll be similar to the NFL with the SEC and Big 10 mirroring the NFC and AFC.
They’ve already scavenged all the want from the Big 12. That’s what’s making that conference work better than the ACC. Those schools have nowhere else to go. ACC has about 4 that can & will leave when the grant of rights expires.
 

L4Dawg

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I’m not missing it. But what they should have realized was is was coming one way or the other. They chose the hard way & are paying the price.
They chose to do the right thing, and they lost. Now we have a mess.
 

L4Dawg

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Oh my god. THAT IS THE ISSUE! THAT IS WHAT I AND OTHERS HAVE BEEN SAYING.
The NCAA didnt want to go down the road- they chose to not get in front of things, and here we are.

Welcome to yesterday's conversation where I also said the NCAA chose to to get ahead of things.

The decision to do nothing, to me, shows the NCAA's ineptness.
They were right as we now see.