I watched this entire thing... pretty interesting, and definitely a ton of doom and gloom. Interesting the guy Ed Dowd was calling for a crash in 2023, 2024, and now he's shifting to 2026, 2027. i'm sure he'll get it right one of these days! keep predicting catastrophe, and some day it'll hit.
It annoys me when people talk about all the terrible things coming our way, but with no plan or tips on how to react. i wish they'd give the common investor (me) an idea of what to do to prepare or how to defend against this looming disaster
2023-2024 was a strange period. As Dowd mentioned, he underestimated the amount of foreigners being pumped into the country and A) their spending and B) the money they were being given for spending. There was also a lot of false data being used - a regular cycle of false positives followed by revisions when nobody was looking. There were also periods where the decline in GDP over several months would normally be called a "recession" but weren't
https://www.npr.org/2022/07/28/1113649843/gdp-2q-economy-2022-recession-two-quarters
I was listening to Luke Groman this morning and he's rather dire himself. The gov spends 7 trillion a year but takes in 5 trillion. When AI layoffs really take place the white collar workers wont be paying taxes as they have been and nobody knows what they can do instead. As soon as one company shows results from layoffs (which help the stocks people are paid with) others will rush to follow, Add a sovereign debt crisis with more money creation.
Gromen says not to be over leveraged and he likes a "Fuggar portfolio" 25% gold, 25% cash 25% blue chip equities and 25% real estate. One of those will be dented at some point but you focus on the healthy ones.
One other way big thing looming that's invisible is California flirting with having zero oil refineries. In the 1970s they had about 40. Now they have around 4 and they just told CA they are going to close soon unless CA gets its head out of its cheeks. CA wants to tax them out of existence When refineries stop chugging they begin to break down fast as seals malfunction along with other things. The catastrophe of losing gas will hit fast but a fix will be slow.
I listened to an Air Force general (and C17 pilot) and refinery expert describe the situation and when people cant get gas, diesel food, supplies, meds etc the social blowback will be epic. Ports and airports wont be able to function (San Fran gets 100%of its jet fuel from 2 refineries ready to close). The refinery situation needs federal oversight but CA is trying to force state to take control before feds can. These people are crazy and they appear to have a plot
