First round upsets are a thing of the past

akaukswoosh

Hall of Famer
Jan 14, 2006
80,450
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With NIL and transfer portal these small schools have no chance. USF, Troy, HP, all getting dominated. SAD :(
Can I be your bookie?
No Brain Idiot GIF
 

megablue

Heisman
Oct 2, 2012
15,515
15,551
113
In the men's NCAA tournament first round (since 1985/expansion), top seeds are dominant, with No. 1 seeds winning roughly 99% of their games. Winning percentages decrease by seed: No. 2s win $\sim$93%, No. 3s $\sim$86%, and No. 4s $\sim$79%. The highest-ranked underdog seeds to historically succeed are No. 12 (approx. 35% win rate).
  • 1 Seed vs. 16 Seed: ~99% win rate (158-2 record)
  • 2 Seed vs. 15 Seed: ~93% win rate (149-11 record)
  • 3 Seed vs. 14 Seed: ~86% win rate (137-23 record)
  • 4 Seed vs. 13 Seed: ~79% win rate (127-33 record)
  • 5 Seed vs. 12 Seed: ~64% win rate (103-57 record)
  • 6 Seed vs. 11 Seed: ~61% win rate (98-62 record)
  • 7 Seed vs. 10 Seed: ~59% win rate (97-62 record)
  • 8 Seed vs. 9 Seed: ~52% win rate (83-77 record)
  • No. 12 seeds are the most dangerous lower seed, winning over 30% of their games against No. 5s.
  • No. 13 seeds hold a 20.6% winning percentage against No. 4 seeds.
  • No. 16 seeds have only won twice in 160 matchups against No. 1 seeds, resulting in a 1.25% winning percentage.
 

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May 27, 2007
31,887
24,978
113
I think this is false. The top teams are no better than they ever were. What you are actually seeing is more parity in the middle tier group of teams as a result of NIL & transfer portal.

I don't know about this. Last season we had 1 number one seeds make a final four. And it was predictable. Those teams were clear cut above the rest.

This season we also have like five (the 1s and Houston IMO).

While I disagree with the OP in that upsets are a thing of the past, the teams at the top ARE getting better. All you have to do is look at the top teams and how their efficiency margins have risen over the course of time. They are getting better compared to the average team.

That being said, of course upsets will still happen. All it takes is one hot shooting night from 3 for any of these teams and they can spring upsets.
 
May 27, 2007
31,887
24,978
113
In the men's NCAA tournament first round (since 1985/expansion), top seeds are dominant, with No. 1 seeds winning roughly 99% of their games. Winning percentages decrease by seed: No. 2s win $\sim$93%, No. 3s $\sim$86%, and No. 4s $\sim$79%. The highest-ranked underdog seeds to historically succeed are No. 12 (approx. 35% win rate).
  • 1 Seed vs. 16 Seed: ~99% win rate (158-2 record)
  • 2 Seed vs. 15 Seed: ~93% win rate (149-11 record)
  • 3 Seed vs. 14 Seed: ~86% win rate (137-23 record)
  • 4 Seed vs. 13 Seed: ~79% win rate (127-33 record)
  • 5 Seed vs. 12 Seed: ~64% win rate (103-57 record)
  • 6 Seed vs. 11 Seed: ~61% win rate (98-62 record)
  • 7 Seed vs. 10 Seed: ~59% win rate (97-62 record)
  • 8 Seed vs. 9 Seed: ~52% win rate (83-77 record)
  • No. 12 seeds are the most dangerous lower seed, winning over 30% of their games against No. 5s.
  • No. 13 seeds hold a 20.6% winning percentage against No. 4 seeds.
  • No. 16 seeds have only won twice in 160 matchups against No. 1 seeds, resulting in a 1.25% winning percentage.

The 5/12 is always an intriguing thing to me. People always know that every year you get a 12 knocking off a 5 but no one really looks into why this is the case. The massive gulf between the upset rate at 5/12 vs say 4/13.

I still maintain that a big issue with 5s is the location. At the 4/5 lines, preference for locations close to these teams isn't good since most spots are already occupied. This is why you have teams like Kansas (4) and St Johns (5) playing in San Diego. Travel distance does correlate in the NCAA tournament which I don't think is something maybe people factor in. If you travel a greater distance than your opponent, you are at a disadvantage. The bigger the difference, the bigger the adventage.

As to why this affects the 5s way more than the 4s, to me it's just simply there's not many good mid major teams. There's a gulf between the 12s and the 13s.

Least this is my opinion on all this lol.
 

Cowtown Cat

Heisman
Aug 23, 2015
23,959
54,338
100
Boozer has a big a.ss advantage, the refs give him every fkn call, it's unreal 🤬
Same thing with Zion, Bagley, Flagg, Tatum, Laettner, JWill, etc. Just look at how many POYs duke has had over the years. They’ve had several. Now, look at how many of those same players are elite in the league. Not very many at all. That tells you all you need to know. Preferential treatment at its finest! Grotesque!