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BACATOLOGY 3/9 NCAA TOURNEY OUTLOOK

bac2therac

bac2therac

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UofMbasketball said:
Eh I think it's moreso the finals that are ignored not really the quarterfinals
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Many bracketologists say results after Thursday are irrelevant for setting the field. For seeding these Friday/Saturday still carry weight. However like I said we cant overreact to one game results. So Nebraska 3 seed is vulnerable but until everything is scrubbed we really wont know. I do think Iowa State taking Illinois 2 though
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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Ole Miss wins!

Will advance to SEC semis to play winner of Arkansas/Oklahoma

From 12-19 to 15-19.
 
R

RIP2025

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saw on my FB feed about Miami (OH) so I came here to check what you say. I quit college basketball and now you are talking about WAB!!!!!!!!
 
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bac2therac

bac2therac

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RIP2025 said:
saw on my FB feed about Miami (OH) so I came here to check what you say. I quit college basketball and now you are talking about WAB!!!!!!!!
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Bart has made the big time. You were ahead of the curve

NCAA says WAB is a big deal so Miami (Ohio) has to be in
 
G

G- RUnit

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I’ve always suspected that as well. Full
Body of work except when it’s not.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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so wrapping up the late night action

no surprise as St Johns will meet UConn for Big East title. SHU is headed to the Crown

Houston really beat up on Kansas. Jayhawks looking like a 4 but will get some consideration for a 3

Duke clinches the overall #1 by defeating Clemson to make the ACC finals vs Virginia. Clemson will be a 7 or 8

UCLA chances of landing as a 7 increased enormously with the win over Michigan State who are still are more like than Illinois for a 2.

Arkansas rallies to knock off Oklahoma. Arky and Vandy are very close on that 4/5 line. Oklahoma may have fallen back out of the field with that loss.

VCU survived against Duquesne to advance to A10 semis, still not a lock

Utah State advances to the MW final by knocking off Nevada

San Diego State tops New Mexico in a key bubble out game but still does not the put Aztecs in. Might need to beat Utah State in MW finals
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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Update WAB with SOR

Above the fray
36. Santa Clara 41
37. St Louis 33
38. Miami (Ohio) 29
39. Iowa 39
40. Texas A&M 37
41. Missouri 40

Last 4 in
42. VCU 42
43. North Carolina State 45
44. Auburn 43
45. San Diego State 51

OUT
46. SMU +.02 49
47. Texas 45 -.03 44
48. Mc Neese* IN THE FIELD AS SOUTHLAND AQ 47
49. Oklahoma 46
50. Oklahoma State 54
51. Virginia Tech 56
52. Indiana 50
53. California 57
54. Arizona State 58
55. Seton Hall 48
56. Stanford 62
57. Akron 55
58. New Mexico 64
59. South Florida 53
60. Tulsa 52


so by WAB rankings San Diego State has moved above the cut line along with Auburn. SMU falls below but does have a positive above wab mark. Texas also just out and in the negative by just a bit.

WVU was the big outlier last year with a WAB ranking 42 but left out. Xavier was at 49

I have a feeling that you are going to have to have a positive wab to make the field...Texas at -.03 is at a disdvantage, Auburn is the unusual case at 17-16 so it really comes down does their record and poor Q1/2/3 mark eliminate them or does their quality of win, sos, wab, sor, predictive metrics win out. Very tough call and its just a mattter of guessing what the committee wants. Its not what I want, I would keep them out for that loss total.

Hopefully a bid stealer like San Diego State takes care of that issue. I am not sure the Aztecs can get it as an at large but they certainly will be among the last few considered.

Miami Ohio both sor and wab of 29/38 indicates they are in the field

Also remember...the last 4 teams SELECTED into the field are not necessarily the 4 teams SEEDED to play in Dayton. Once you are in then the seeding process takes place after scrubbing and you may be seeded downward...see Miami Ohio
 
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Erial_Lion

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DKNJ has the following odds posted for teams to make the NCAA Tournament...

Team - YES/NO
Auburn: +390/-600
Miami (Oh): -900/+550
Missouri: -350/+250
Oklahoma: +450/-700
San Diego St: -120/-110 (priced at +105 to win MWC this afternoon)
SMU: -130/+100
Texas: -125/-105
VCU: -300/+245 (priced at +160 to win A10 tournament)

My thoughts on them...

Auburn - lean towards playing no, but priced pretty fairly
Miami (Oh) - I played the yes at -900...steep price, but still undervalued
Missouri - I played the yes at -350...think they have a better than 80% chance
Oklahoma - I played the yes at +450...think they have a better than 20% chance
San Diego St - Seems fairly priced...small chance that they get an at-large, and it's priced in accordingly
SMU - Think it's priced pretty fairly
Texas - I played the no at -105...with San Diego St and an A10 bid stealer hanging out there, tough to see them at better than 40%
VCU - Think it's priced fairly when considering they have a good chance to play for the auto-bid tomorrow
 
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bac2therac

bac2therac

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3/14 Morning Update

ONE SEEDS: Duke*, Michigan*, Arizona*, Florida*

TWO SEEDS: Connecticut*, Houston, Iowa State, Michigan State

THREE SEEDS: Ilinois, Purdue, Gonzaga*, Nebraska

FOUR SEEDS: Virginia, Kansas, Alabama, Arkansas

FIVE SEEDS: Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Saint John’s, Wisconsin

SIX SEEDS: North Carolina, Tennessee, Louisville, BYU

SEVEN SEEDS: Miami (Fla), Kentucky, Clemson, UCLA

EIGHT SEEDS: Saint Mary's, Utah State*, Georgia, Villanova

NINE SEEDS: Ohio State, TCU, Saint Louis*, Iowa

TEN SEEDS: Central Florida, Missouri, Texas A&M, Santa Clara

ELEVEN SEEDS: South Florida*, Miami (Ohio), North Carolina State/VCU, SMU/Texas

TWELVE SEEDS: Mc Neese*, Akron*, Yale*, Northern Iowa*

THIRTEEN SEEDS: High Point*, Utah Valley State*, Hofstra*, UC Irvine

FOURTEEN SEEDS: North Dakota State*, Troy*, Wright State*, Kennesaw State*

FIFTEEN SEEDS: Tennessee State*, Idaho*, Furman*, Queens*

SIXTEEN SEEDS: Siena*, Long Island*, Howard*/Lehigh*, UMBC*/Southern*



FIRST FOUR BYES: MISSOURI ,TEXAS A&M, SANTA CLARA, MIAMI (OHIO)

LAST 4 IN: TEXAS, SMU, VCU, NORTH CAROLINA STATE

FIRST 4 OUT: SAN DIEGO STATE, AUBURN, OKLAHOMA, INDIANA

NEXT 4 OUT: VIRGINIA TECH, OKLAHOMA STATE, STANFORD, CALIFORINIA

ON DECK: NEW MEXICO, SETON HALL, TULSA, FLORIDA STATE
 
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bac2therac

bac2therac

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today....

UMBC/VermontL battle for America East AQ

Wisconsin/Michgan: Badgers look like a 5 now while Wolverines will not be able to catch Duke for the top overall seed

Vanderbilt/Florida: Vandy is very very close with Arkansas for that last 4 seed pending final scrub but a win here may make the difference

Howard/North Carolina Central: clash for the MEAC AQ

Dayton/St Louis: Bilikens are in the field as an at large if they do not win this but winning this one helps keep the seeding from freefall

South Florida/Charlotte: Bulls do not have a realistic at large shot so its imperative to win today to reach the AAC finals

Ole Miss/Arkansas; Rebels are the Cinderalla of Conference Tourney week. The rest of the bubble rooting very hard against them.

Purdue/UCLA: Purdue has solidfied their 3 seed while the Bruins may have climbed to 7 but will their injury factor into seeding.

St Joseph's/VCU: Rams are still in a scary spot in last 4 in so need to get this one to reach A10 finals to put their at large case more attractive.

Tulsa/Wichita State: Golden Hurricane showing up at the extreme fringes of bubble but have no realistic path to an at large bid.

Houston/Arizona: both locked in as 2 and 1 seeds respectively

San Diego State/Utah State: huge implications in Mountain West Conference title game. Aztecs are now positive in WAB and have all the metrics that committee likes even without the impressive wins vs field. Would not rule out getting a bid even if they lose this one. Aggies could be worth a look as a 7 seed if they win this one.

Connecticut/St John's: Johnnies look 5 without an outside shot at 4 with a win here. UConn locked in at 2.

Southern/Praire View A&M: fight for the SWAC AQ

Akron/Toledo: some say Akron is truly the best team from the MAC but Toledo may have something to say about that. Zips will be considered but really have no substantial case for an at large.

Virginia/Duke: Duke has locked up the top overall seed IMO. Cavs trying to make their case for a 3 with a win here.

Kennesaw State/Louisiana Tech: unlikely tandem matched up for CUSA AQ

Cal Irvine/Hawaii: fitting that the top 2 all year in the Big West are paired up in final for its AQ

Utah Valley State/California Baptist: 11:59PM eastern time tip forthe WAC AQ
 
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U

UofMbasketball

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Nebraska over Virginia still Bac? I have a hard time now that Virginia has a better NET, better Kenpom, 8-3 in Q1 vs 9-6, and better SOR/WAB
 
G

GM

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I still feel if a team wasn’t in the tourney pre conference tournament time, they’re not making it, I feel we’ve seen a few examples
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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UMBC knocks off Vermont to win the America East and will likely wind up a 16 seed.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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GM said:
I still feel if a team wasn’t in the tourney pre conference tournament time, they’re not making it, I feel we’ve seen a few examples
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you might be right...and thats why I have Texas back in the field and for now over San Diego State...the WAB thing is the new wrinkle. Will they give a bid to a school below 0 and several spots below one with a positive such as San Diego State. Last year even the last few teams in UNC and Xavier and Texas and San Diego State all had positive wabs
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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UofMbasketball said:
Nebraska over Virginia still Bac? I have a hard time now that Virginia has a better NET, better Kenpom, 8-3 in Q1 vs 9-6, and better SOR/WAB
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Its going to be a tough discussion. Obviously a win by Virginia tonight may be enough to push them to 3.

Virginia is 9-2 vs the field with only 1 Q1Awin and zero wins vs the top 4 seeds. Nebraska has 3 Q1A and 2 wins vs top 4 seeds but only 5-6 vs field.

However Nebraska has not lost to a school outside Q1, their worst loss were at UCLA/Iowa..pretty crazy

Virginia lost at Virginia Tech and neutral site Butler..

so UVA does not have the high end wins of Nebraska plus they have a really bad loss to Butler even if its in Q2. They do seem to fare well in alot of metrics vs Nebby so I see how a case can be made either way. We have no idea what they are thinking but I will note Nebraska was in the initial reveal as 11 and Virginia 16 although since then the gap has been narrowed
 
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bac2therac

bac2therac

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Vandy taking Florida to woodshed. That 4 is now theirs

Dont get caught up in talk of Florida losing that 1 to Houston or even UConn

Body of work and lose to a 4 seed in a semifinal even by 20 will not change that
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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PiscatawayMike said:
Derkack having a monster game! 28 points with a minute to go...
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Was just going to post thar

Another super finish and Dayton upsets Saint Louis. Flyers will meet winner of VCU/ St Joe's

VCU now becomes the A10 AQ seeded 11th. Saint Louis falls into at large pool. Will not know their numbers til tomorrow but appear above the fray but vulnerable to be sent to Dayton
 
U

UofMbasketball

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Bac I feel like Houston with a win today sohuld still be in play for a 1 seed. They're good and their metrics and resume is decent too. 5 losses Q1A. Looking at them vs Uconn, I'm not sure what people are saying to put Uconn ahead. SOR 4 Uconn but 5 for Houston. Uconn has as Q2 and Q3 loss which in my eyes is way worse than 5 Q1A.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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UofMbasketball said:
Bac I feel like Houston with a win today sohuld still be in play for a 1 seed. They're good and their metrics and resume is decent too. 5 losses Q1A. Looking at them vs Uconn, I'm not sure what people are saying to put Uconn ahead. SOR 4 Uconn but 5 for Houston. Uconn has as Q2 and Q3 loss which in my eyes is way worse than 5 Q1A.
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Florida still heavy fave for one seed
 
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MADHAT1

MADHAT1

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bac2therac said:
Florida still heavy fave for one seed
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I wonder if UConn beats St Johns, even in a close one, if they'll be taking the Gators #1
Duke, Arizona and Michigan are locks, in my opinion, but I feel Florida and UConn are pick-ems if UConn beats St Johns
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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MADHAT1 said:
I wonder if UConn beats St Johns, even in a close one, if they'll be taking the Gators #1
Duke, Arizona and Michigan are locks, in my opinion, but I feel Florida and UConn are pick-ems if UConn beats St Johns
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I dont see it. Full body of work and yes UConn did beat them but the issue is UConn lost to 2 horrible teams
 
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bac2therac

bac2therac

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I also think the SEC is just a tougher conference. Florida is 12-6 vs field. Worst loss bubble Auburn. Uconn is 8-2
 
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