Anyone got any other data to back this up or refute it?

johnson86-1

All-Conference
Aug 22, 2012
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Mississippi is losing population, not gaining. That is totally bogus.

Net migration is not the same thing as population growth (or loss). Domestic net migration (which is what they are claiming to measure) is especially not the same thing as population growth (or loss). I'm sure everybody here is as shocked as I am that you would make an illogical statement/argument with absolute certainty.**

Also, not sure what the last few years have shown, but I believe the last full census originally showed Mississippi having a loss, but after correcting some methodological flaws, they showed Mississippi having a slight gain. Definitely not good (and probably still bad on net as I'm guessing the population got older on average), but not as bad as reported. https://www.wlox.com/2022/05/21/lat...ississippis-population-was-undercounted-2020/
 
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johnson86-1

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Aug 22, 2012
14,373
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The problem I have with this data as a PoliSci guy is the fact that they're doing it as a statewide count.

You can say it's government policies all you want, but if it's the folks in rural California are moving to Austin, TX, you can't really say it's about that.

I'm happy to be corrected, but the data is flawed specifically for that reason.
Do you not think rural Californians live in California? It's pretty common for rural areas to get shafted because state policy is dominated by voters in urban centers. Rural California, like Upstate New York and other places can't afford to be as dumb as their richer urban counterparts, but they get forced to be as dumb because their tax and regulatory burden is still largely dictated by urban voters.

On the flipside, rural californians can still do better moving to Austin Texas because even if Austin is full of crazies, they are protected on some big things by the state policies as a whole. Also, I think Austin is losing population to the surrounding area, but that's just something I've been told, not data or reports I have seen.
 

ckDOG

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Dec 11, 2007
10,039
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I'm trying to find a high tax area that has recovered. Even with the "Urban Rebewal" of the sixties or any other gentrification of urban areas ...it's the welfare state that has made our unban centers nothing more than vehicles For systemic corruption.
They don't recover. People with means leave to where they don't have to pay so much. What's left over just throws **** against the wall as the haves move away and what's left is proportionally poorer and less able to fund and manage a city government. That snowball is rarely stopped except with a little here and there as you stated.

We like city amenities until it's time to pay for them. Then we bail and reset. Why? It's our culture. Americans are big on individualism and skeptical of anything they don't see directly benefiting themselves. Once we don't see the payoff compared to what we put in, we change cities or move to other towns/cities on the outskirts. I say that neutrally - I'm not trying to argue what politics are right or wrong here. I'm just describing how we develop then bail and move elsewhere.
 

FormerBully

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Sep 2, 2022
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To add onto your point, MDOT finally finishing HWY-76 from Red Bay to Fulton is huge. Having a 4 lane highway between HSV and Tupelo is a potential starting point for some of the Defense Contractors moving their manufacturing facilities to Tupelo/North MS.
There is already a major one here.
 

RocketDawg

All-Conference
Oct 21, 2011
19,025
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Mississippi is losing population, not gaining. That is totally bogus.
Actually, the latest estimate, as of July 2025, the population up 11,000 from the 2024 estimate, but still down a little from the 2020 census. So pretty stable if the numbers are correct.
 

CEO2044

Senior
May 11, 2009
1,941
618
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Taking on $100k in student loans and only being able to get a $40k salary is about the decisions made in taking out that much debt. It's unfortunate, but we have made four years of undergrad at a university a poor bet for a lot of people. Two years of community college for free and two years at State, even if you load up on debt, and you are carrying enough debt that you could have bought a new car, but not something that really makes it hard to thrive. Some states don't have good cheap options (Vermont is the worst with their state college clocking $40k a year in cost of attendance), but most do.
I’m a big proponent of JUCO first for most for this reason. You can typically get most or all of it paid for with a decent ACT, and then rack up scholarships to go on to the four year. I got tuition paid for at State from it and got a few thousand back- bought a nice bedroom suite I still have. My parents were able to save for PT school. Best financial decision I ever made.

It feels like less and less are taking this route (at least around here) which doesn’t really make sense to me, but maybe I’m just dreaming that or maybe it’s because of where I live.

EDIT: not to mention, but if you really need significant financial help, they have a way of getting grants and funding to bridge the gap. I firmly believe there is no financial excuse for anyone just about to be able to get a JUCO degree.

The middle skill jobs are what MS has a shortage of- your trades. JUCO’s should be booming.
 
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theoriginalSALTYdog

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Jul 10, 2021
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To add onto your point, MDOT finally finishing HWY-76 from Red Bay to Fulton is huge. Having a 4 lane highway between HSV and Tupelo is a potential starting point for some of the Defense Contractors moving their manufacturing facilities to Tupelo/North MS.
See my previous post as to what is holding Tupelo back. The highway and infrastructure are already there. What's not there? Quality people to hire and it's a real issue. I know this for a fact as I have worked in that area for multiple well recognized employers. Just ask Toyota. Even they are struggling to find the kind of employees they want.
 

kired

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Aug 22, 2008
7,026
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I grew up around Columbus and Starkville. I always wanted to get out. After State in 2013 I left. I lived in New Orleans, Baton Rouge, and Atlanta. When It came time for my wife and me to start a family, I realized that the cost of Atlanta was awful. Also, the crowds. Getting to a Braves game was almost impossible. So, we decided to come back. I say this to explain why Tupelo is growing.

1. It has access, I can get to Huntsville, Birmingham, and Memphis in two hours. I have three cities to choose from, without having to deal with living in any of them.
2. Schools. The people moving here are at the spot where they are ready for kids, which means education is important. Education in Mississippi is improving, and in this area, you have great schools.
3. Activities, Golf, new outdoor putting venue, parks, fishing (river), Oxford and Starkville, great food. I mean, we have a Meadery

Another sign of the growth that is coming is the Target. We often joke about joke about it, but the store has been resized to be 150,000 sq feet. That will make it the biggest in the state from my research.
But it’s not really growing much. I live here now, and grew up 30 minutes from here. The population was low 30k in the late 90s and i think it’s still a little under 40k. Thats not much growth over 25+ year span.
 

Perd Hapley

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Sep 30, 2022
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lol. The chart also uses per 10000 to look more dramatic.
The chart is a joke. Texas, a state of 32,000,000 people, gained 68,000. Literally a 0.2% increase.

California, a state of 39,500,000 people, lost 100,000. A 0.25% decrease.

All I can gather from this is that measuring year over year population trends is incredibly stupid, and nobody besides South Carolina appears to really have moved the needle much in either direction.
 

HotMop

All-American
May 8, 2006
7,833
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Admire the optimism, but I've tried that train already, a few times in my life, and it just ends with heartburn. We all love Mississippi to some extent, but we just have to admit what it is at this point.

As far as the hurricanes, come on man. You can't just rebuild every 30 years and expect to maintain a thriving city, and the MS Coast is a PROVEN common track for major hurricanes. Not to mention all the minor ones that 17 shlt up too.
Florida disagrees
 

HotMop

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May 8, 2006
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I’m currently living in Orange Beach Al. You wouldn’t believe the influx of Florida people moving into Baldwin county. Next time anyone heads down this way, get of the Beach Express or Hwy 59. DRHorton is building subdivisions as fast as they can. Cities are starting to institute building moratoriums because city services and infrastructure can’t handle the growth.
DR Horton homes are the Yugo of affordable new homes. These ******* build to the minimum, built a subdivision near me that floods all the surrounding subdivisions because they underbuilt the retention ponds and didn't build outflows.
 
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RocketDawg

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But it’s not really growing much. I live here now, and grew up 30 minutes from here. The population was low 30k in the late 90s and i think it’s still a little under 40k. Thats not much growth over 25+ year span.
I thought it was a growth area. But looking at the latest Census estimates, Lee County has only added about 100 people since the 2010 Census. Do those numbers sound right?

 

RocketDawg

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The chart is a joke. Texas, a state of 32,000,000 people, gained 68,000. Literally a 0.2% increase.

California, a state of 39,500,000 people, lost 100,000. A 0.25% decrease.

All I can gather from this is that measuring year over year population trends is incredibly stupid, and nobody besides South Carolina appears to really have moved the needle much in either direction.
Census says California lost about 200,000 and Texas gained about 2.6 million since 2020. Those numbers are probably about right.
 

bully12

Senior
Sep 2, 2012
1,648
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Don’t tell me climate/weather is the main reason for this migration.

Look at ID, MT, ME. One word: governmentpolicies.

Taxes and cost of living trump climate.

I can confirm firsthand AL and SC are seeing growth requiring some major infrastructure investment.
With respect to SC, this is absolutely true.
 

TrueMaroonGrind

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Jan 6, 2017
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I don’t have any numbers but I do have personal observations from traveling the state multiple times a year.

Memphis metro counties are growing and Desoto is growing the fastest. Marshall and Tate are also growing just slower. New Albany seems to have some momentum thanks to Toyota. Tupelo seems to be holding serve. The big 3 college towns are growing. The coast will always grow even if it’s slowly. Northeast MS is not a bad place to live just isn’t growing much and Corinth is a bad anchor city.

The delta is not desirable at all and is most likely hemorrhaging population. Between West Point and Laurel is a Ghost Town.

Jackson and its metro are foreign to me. We have hardly any friends or family there. I know inner city is struggling but the suburbs seem to be doing okay. Random but what’s up with Wiggins? They just keep building stuff there.
 
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patdog

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I don’t have any numbers but I do have personal observations from traveling the state multiple times a year.

Memphis metro counties are growing and Desoto is growing the fastest. Marshall and Tate are also growing just slower. New Albany seems to have some momentum thanks to Toyota. Tupelo seems to be holding serve. The big 3 college towns are growing. The coast will always grow even if it’s slowly. Northeast MS is not a bad place to live just isn’t growing much and Corinth is a bad anchor city.

The delta is not desirable at all and is most likely hemorrhaging population. Between West Point and Laurel is a Ghost Town.

Jackson and its metro are foreign to me. We have hardly any friends or family there. I know inner city is struggling but the suburbs seem to be doing okay. Random but what’s up with Wiggins? They just keep building stuff there.
Pretty good analysis. Jackson suburbs are mostly doing good & growing. My guess on Wiggins is its proximity to the coast but just far enough away to avoid the worst of the hurricanes. Even the coast cities are growing north above I-10 a lot.
 
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FormerBully

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But it’s not really growing much. I live here now, and grew up 30 minutes from here. The population was low 30k in the late 90s and i think it’s still a little under 40k. Thats not much growth over 25+ year span.
If have to view Tupelo as the Tupelo Micropolitan Area. This an actual term and includes Corinth, New Albany, and Ponotoc. That area has 138,000 people is ranked 7th out of the 543 micropolitan areas in the USA. The place is sitting on gold. Why you are seeing General Atomics and Liebherr set up shop in Lee county.
 

Bilbo69

Sophomore
Nov 9, 2025
104
146
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MS truly is one of the worst states in the country. Just an absolute desert for any sort of entertainment or opportunity for young people. I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

Anecdotally 90% of my buddies from college moved away. None of my out of state friends stayed. There’s much greener pastures all throughout the south and elsewhere of course.
 

Perd Hapley

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If have to view Tupelo as the Tupelo Micropolitan Area. This an actual term and includes Corinth, New Albany, and Ponotoc. That area has 138,000 people is ranked 7th out of the 543 micropolitan areas in the USA. The place is sitting on gold. Why you are seeing General Atomics and Liebherr set up shop in Lee county.
Um, what? Corinth???? Tupelo is nearly an hour from Corinth. 17ing West Point is closer. Oxford, too. Might as well just give them the entirety of Northeast / North Central MS, and let them annex the Golden Triangle, too.

If you want to gerrymander some ridiculous ā€œmicropolitan areaā€ around Tupelo, you can make it look as impressive as you want.
 

leeinator

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Have allways kind of liked Florence, AL and Muscle Shoals area. Even Decatur, AL looks decent.
 

Leeshouldveflanked

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Do you not think rural Californians live in California? It's pretty common for rural areas to get shafted because state policy is dominated by voters in urban centers. Rural California, like Upstate New York and other places can't afford to be as dumb as their richer urban counterparts, but they get forced to be as dumb because their tax and regulatory burden is still largely dictated by urban voters.

On the flipside, rural californians can still do better moving to Austin Texas because even if Austin is full of crazies, they are protected on some big things by the state policies as a whole. Also, I think Austin is losing population to the surrounding area, but that's just something I've been told, not data or reports I have seen.
Austin is a hot, nasty mess of homeless, drugs and crime….. and overpriced ā€œBarBQā€
 

BrunswickDawg

Junior
Aug 22, 2012
309
226
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The growth in SC is definitely happening. Was working with city leadership in Hardeeville a couple of weeks ago - which is one of the fastest growing communities in the country. Huge 3500-4000 unit retirement communities popping up all around them, plus huge spillover from Savannah and the construction boom - massive influx of Hispanics. It's forcing SCDOT to finally widen I-95, but the overall infrastructure in that corridor is woefully behind an causing major headaches.

The Greater Savannah area is having similar issues due to the Hyundai plant and huge growth from the port
 

RocketDawg

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Don’t tell me climate/weather is the main reason for this migration.

Look at ID, MT, ME. One word: governmentpolicies.

Taxes and cost of living trump climate.

I can confirm firsthand AL and SC are seeing growth requiring some major infrastructure investment.

Sometimes ALDOT's priorities seem to be misdirected. I suppose that depends on one's knothole.
 

RocketDawg

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36.5% of Alabama is people moving to Auburn

Plus Baldwin County (where Gulf Shores & Orange Beach are), as well as Madison/Limestone in north central Alabama. Those are really the only 3 areas of the state that are growing to any extent.
 

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
57,078
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Um, what? Corinth???? Tupelo is nearly an hour from Corinth. 17ing West Point is closer. Oxford, too. Might as well just give them the entirety of Northeast / North Central MS, and let them annex the Golden Triangle, too.

If you want to gerrymander some ridiculous ā€œmicropolitan areaā€ around Tupelo, you can make it look as impressive as you want.
Yeah. That’s a BIG area to only have 138,000 people.
 
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FormerBully

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Um, what? Corinth???? Tupelo is nearly an hour from Corinth. 17ing West Point is closer. Oxford, too. Might as well just give them the entirety of Northeast / North Central MS, and let them annex the Golden Triangle, too.

If you want to gerrymander some ridiculous ā€œmicropolitan areaā€ around Tupelo, you can make it look as impressive as you want.
Look it up. It is a real stat and is tracked. I may have mis spoke including New Albany> From my research it is not included in the population count of 138, but you cannot look at Tupelo as just Tupelo. The place triples in size daily from people coming to work, shop, and eat. There is a reason we are getting one of the biggest Targets in the State and they are building new roads to serve the town.

Also, I cannot say the name, but a certain company is in the process of dropping 100 million plus in new construction and upgrades to keep up.
 

Dawgbite

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Nov 1, 2011
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Um, what? Corinth???? Tupelo is nearly an hour from Corinth. 17ing West Point is closer. Oxford, too. Might as well just give them the entirety of Northeast / North Central MS, and let them annex the Golden Triangle, too.

If you want to gerrymander some ridiculous ā€œmicropolitan areaā€ around Tupelo, you can make it look as impressive as you want.
Corinth may be a stretch but I know people who live in West Point and work in Tupelo. I know people who live in Oxford and work in Tupelo and vice versa. Tupelo’s problem to me is that its land locked on three sides by small incorporated towns, it doesn’t have room to grow and retain the property taxes to support the growth. I personally ,living in the area ,consider the counties adjoining Lee County, Tupelo, to be part of the micrpolitan area. If you’re crossing two county lines then no.
 
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Perd Hapley

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Yeah. That’s a BIG area to only have 138,000 people.
No kidding. Check this out….

Oktibbeha County population - 52,000
Lowndes County population - 58,000
Clay County population - 18,000
Webster / Noxubee - 10,000 each

All combined - 148,000

All hail the GTR Micropolitan area, now at least the 6th largest in the entire country. Suck a fat one, Tupelo****
 
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RocketDawg

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Corinth may be a stretch but I know people who live in West Point and work in Tupelo. I know people who live in Oxford and work in Tupelo and vice versa. Tupelo’s problem to me is that its land locked on three sides by small incorporated towns, it doesn’t have room to grow and retain the property taxes to support the growth. I personally ,living in the area ,consider the counties adjoining Lee County, Tupelo, to be part of the micrpolitan area. If you’re crossing two county lines then no.

It's defined by OMB to be Lee, Pontotoc, and Itawamba Counties.

It may be a little like the Huntsville metro. Everybody considers Huntsville and Decatur to be one metro, but OMB considers Decatur to be a separate metropolitan area because of commuting patterns. That's probably going to change at the next delineation, but at the moment the official Huntsville Metro is only Madison and Limestone Counties, and the Decatur Metro is Morgan and Lawrence Counties.
 

RocketDawg

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No kidding. Check this out….

Oktibbeha County population - 52,000
Lowndes County population - 58,000
Clay County population - 18,000
Webster / Noxubee - 10,000 each

All combined - 148,000

All hail the GTR Micropolitan area, now at least the 6th largest in the entire country. Suck a fat one, Tupelo****
Is GTR an official Micro area as defined by the OMB?
 

FormerBully

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Sep 2, 2022
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Is GTR an official Micro area as defined by the OMB?
It is not for some reason, but the GTR and Tupelo region are power houses. The number of companies coming into the area is mind blowing. I just hope State is working to tap into the money flowing in.
 

johnson86-1

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DR Horton homes are the Yugo of affordable new homes. These ******* build to the minimum, built a subdivision near me that floods all the surrounding subdivisions because they underbuilt the retention ponds and didn't build outflows.
DR Horton subdivisions (and most tract home subdivisions) are just glorified trailer parks. The problem is that most consumers aren't willing to pay for things that make a nice subdivision over time. Lots of options. You can do dime sized lots if you have rear parking and alleys and it be great over time, but people don't like to pay more for smaller lots because you are increasing the space dedicated to roads/alleys. Not as good, but you can do small lots if you have garages large enough to park two cars in and have covenants that require them to use them. But you end up with small lots, garages that are the bare minimum because they drive up price per square ft, and basically no porches for the same reason. The only thing they invest in are a few shiny noticeable things (the easiest things to upgrade overtime), and the hard things to fix after the fact they do the bare minimum on, so a tract home subdivision is basically guaranteed to look worse overtime unless the area is just killing it enough that affluent people will make it work regardless.
 

johnson86-1

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I’m a big proponent of JUCO first for most for this reason. You can typically get most or all of it paid for with a decent ACT, and then rack up scholarships to go on to the four year. I got tuition paid for at State from it and got a few thousand back- bought a nice bedroom suite I still have. My parents were able to save for PT school. Best financial decision I ever made.

It feels like less and less are taking this route (at least around here) which doesn’t really make sense to me, but maybe I’m just dreaming that or maybe it’s because of where I live.

EDIT: not to mention, but if you really need significant financial help, they have a way of getting grants and funding to bridge the gap. I firmly believe there is no financial excuse for anyone just about to be able to get a JUCO degree.

The middle skill jobs are what MS has a shortage of- your trades. JUCO’s should be booming.
People have to realize that most of college is not education now, it's just consumption. If they get a full ride or you can afford to just pay it, sure, have your kids go party for an extra two years at a university. I certainly had a lot more fun than I would have had at a JUCO my freshman and sophomore year. But if you have to take on debt to go to freshman and sophomore year, it's just a bad deal (with maybe an exception for highly valuable degrees at places that you can't jump to from JUCO, although then you are locking yourself into chasing those high paying careers). As fun as that freshman and sophomore year is, if it means another $40k in debt, that's too much to justify for most people.
 

johnson86-1

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MS truly is one of the worst states in the country. Just an absolute desert for any sort of entertainment or opportunity for young people. I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

Anecdotally 90% of my buddies from college moved away. None of my out of state friends stayed. There’s much greener pastures all throughout the south and elsewhere of course.
Mississippi has two things holding it back. One is that it lacks a standout place to live. Lots of perfectly good places to live, but there are similar places in most places in the country. The only thing we have that most states don't have the equivalent of is the Coast, but if you are drawn to it, there are lots of places in Alabama or Florida that offer similar things. Not as many places that are affordable if you're needing to build a career and not coming in with money, but still there are some.

The second is we just have more than our fair share of population in the bottom quintile in conscientiousness. It is not an ironclad rule that an area being poor means it has to be trashy and have a lot of crime. We have a lot of areas of the state that don't seem to realize that.
 

mstateglfr

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People have to realize that most of college is not education now, it's just consumption.
Most of college is not education now?

I closely know an unhealthy number of people between 18 and 24 who are in college or graduated from college. Of the probably 30 I can think of(children, extended family, coached players), only 2 are coming to mind that I would say college was a waste/'just consumption'.
Funny enough, both are currently at JUCOs, and one has everything paid for. Its still a waste, despite it not costing anything.

I really cant say any of their experiences arent/werent 'education'. Medical Biology degree to become a PT, marketing degree and working for the Milwaukee Bucks, countless engineers(civil, mechanical, chemical), accounting, journalism, statistics, physics, multiple in nursing, and many more - all are absolutely receiving educations from large state and small private colleges.

There is one that is receiving a history degree from a state university that I am pretty sure will be worthless with regard to a career since its not like there are a ton of archivists jobs on linkedin, but that will likely be a stepping stone to law school, and all the writing and research done for that major will apply well.



There are obviously people who arent getting the full value out of the cost of their college education. But claiming it is 'most' is sad. I hope it was unclarified hyperbole.
 
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johnson86-1

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Most of college is not education now?

I closely know an unhealthy number of people between 18 and 24 who are in college or graduated from college. Of the probably 30 I can think of(children, extended family, coached players), only 2 are coming to mind that I would say college was a waste/'just consumption'.
Funny enough, both are currently at JUCOs, and one has everything paid for. Its still a waste, despite it not costing anything.

I really cant say any of their experiences arent/werent 'education'. Medical Biology degree to become a PT, marketing degree and working for the Milwaukee Bucks, countless engineers(civil, mechanical, chemical), accounting, journalism, statistics, physics, multiple in nursing, and many more - all are absolutely receiving educations from large state and small private colleges.

There is one that is receiving a history degree from a state university that I am pretty sure will be worthless with regard to a career since its not like there are a ton of archivists jobs on linkedin, but that will likely be a stepping stone to law school, and all the writing and research done for that major will apply well.



There are obviously people who arent getting the full value out of the cost of their college education. But claiming it is 'most' is sad. I hope it was unclarified hyperbole.
Thought that would be clear enough from the context, but "most of university cost" is not education. That was the point of saying it was hard to justify going into debt to pay for the first two years at a university when most of that is just for consumption, not better education than JUCO. Can't unbundle the costs for those last two years, but at least you can minimize the amount of time you're paying for essentially an expensive quasi-vacation. And besides, I do think University is a great enough experience to take on debt to have that experience for a couple of years. Plus there is no better time and place for finding a quality spouse, which can have as good of an impact on your life as basically anything. I just don't know that you get as much bang for your buck after a couple of years of that experience.

If you are going to spend an extra $40k to go to university instead of juco as a freshman and sophomore, that $40k could have paid for some pretty incredible travel your first few years of working. Or hell, just one long trip right out of college. I think $40k could last a long damn time backpacking through Europe. Granted somebody may not loan you $40k to travel at a reasonable interest rate like they will to party for your freshman and sophomore years, so that's a real consideration.
 

RocketDawg

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Mississippi has two things holding it back. One is that it lacks a standout place to live. Lots of perfectly good places to live, but there are similar places in most places in the country. The only thing we have that most states don't have the equivalent of is the Coast, but if you are drawn to it, there are lots of places in Alabama or Florida that offer similar things. Not as many places that are affordable if you're needing to build a career and not coming in with money, but still there are some.

The second is we just have more than our fair share of population in the bottom quintile in conscientiousness. It is not an ironclad rule that an area being poor means it has to be trashy and have a lot of crime. We have a lot of areas of the state that don't seem to realize that.
Interesting way of putting it. 😁