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2026 NCAA Wrestling - Projected Team Scores

M

maxpain

All-American
Jul 6, 2006
1,939
6,406
113
https://www.ncaa.com/_flysystem/public-s3/files/2026 NCAA DI Brackets.pdf

PROJECTED TOP 10 TEAM SCORES
(Actual 2026 NCAA bracket seeds, no upsets, no bonus points)

CORRECTED
1. Penn State - 167.0
2. Ohio State - 98.0
3. Oklahoma State - 94.5
4. Nebraska - 78.5
5. Iowa State - 64.0
6. Iowa - 61.5
7. Cornell - 60.0
8. Virginia Tech - 59.5
9. NC State - 46.5
10. Michigan - 35.0

Next 5 (Illinois 30, Missouri 28, Minnesota 27, Lehigh 26.5, Arizona State 24.5)
 
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M

maxpain

All-American
Jul 6, 2006
1,939
6,406
113
Iowa - 61.5

125 - Dean Peterson (seed 8) - 6
133 - Drake Ayala (seed 6) - 9.5
141 - Nasir Bailey (seed 7) - 7
149 - Ryder Block (seed 15) - 1.5
157 - none
165 - Mikey Caliendo (seed 3) - 14
174 - Patrick Kennedy (seed 5) - 10.5
184 - Angelo Ferrari (seed 7) - 7
197 - Gabe Arnold (seed 27) - 0
285 - Ben Kueter (seed 8) - 6
 
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C

Corby2

All-American
Jul 14, 2025
3,454
7,500
113

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C

Corby2

All-American
Jul 14, 2025
3,454
7,500
113
maxpain said:
https://www.ncaa.com/_flysystem/public-s3/files/2026 NCAA DI Brackets.pdf

PROJECTED TOP 10 TEAM SCORES
(Actual 2026 NCAA bracket seeds, no upsets, no bonus points)
  1. Penn State - 165.0
  2. Ohio State - 94.0
  3. Oklahoma State - 91.0
  4. Nebraska - 74.5
  5. Cornell - 59.0
  6. Iowa State - 58.5
  7. Iowa - 56.5
  8. Virginia Tech - 53.5
  9. NC State - 44.0
  10. Michigan - 32.5
Next 5 (Illinois 30, Missouri 28, Minnesota 27, Lehigh 26.5, Arizona State 24.5)
Click to expand...
Flo did this as well and you guys have some different point values. Posted Flo as well
 
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dtripp26

dtripp26

Heisman
Oct 29, 2003
10,340
30,874
113
maxpain said:
Let me talk to my numbers guy, Claude, and get back to you.
Click to expand...
The numbers...

Asks Russian GIF
 
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EvilMonkeyInTheCloset

EvilMonkeyInTheCloset

Heisman
Feb 25, 2008
30,541
28,427
113
maxpain said:
https://www.ncaa.com/_flysystem/public-s3/files/2026 NCAA DI Brackets.pdf

PROJECTED TOP 10 TEAM SCORES
(Actual 2026 NCAA bracket seeds, no upsets, no bonus points)

CORRECTED
1. Penn State - 167.0
2. Ohio State - 98.0
3. Oklahoma State - 94.5
4. Nebraska - 78.5
5. Iowa State - 64.0
6. Iowa - 61.5
7. Cornell - 60.0
8. Virginia Tech - 59.5
9. NC State - 46.5
10. Michigan - 35.0

Next 5 (Illinois 30, Missouri 28, Minnesota 27, Lehigh 26.5, Arizona State 24.5)
Click to expand...
Talk to your numbers guy again and have him move Iowa to #1.
 
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InTheCircle

InTheCircle

All-Conference
Apr 3, 2018
381
1,294
93
A while back I posted we could get 7 to the quarterfinals. However, at that time I saw Peterson, Kennedy, Ferrari and Keuter seeded higher. If Peterson, Ayala, Bailey, Kennedy, and Keuter make the quarterfinals they will be underdogs, with Kennedy, Ferrari and Ayala in toss up matches. The only one I’d bet on to make the semifinal now is Caliendo. In addition 2nd round matches are much tougher for Peterson and Keuter. I hope I am wrong. It’s March lay it on the line boys!
 
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W

Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,685
4,480
113
InTheCircle said:
A while back I posted we could get 7 to the quarterfinals. However, at that time I saw Peterson, Kennedy, Ferrari and Keuter seeded higher. If Peterson, Ayala, Bailey, Kennedy, and Keuter make the quarterfinals they will be underdogs, with Kennedy, Ferrari and Ayala in toss up matches. The only one I’d bet on to make the semifinal now is Caliendo. In addition 2nd round matches are much tougher for Peterson and Keuter. I hope I am wrong. It’s March lay it on the line boys!
Click to expand...
Iowa has a good chance at 3 in the semis (with rounding):

0 - 1%
1 - 8%
2 - 22%
3 - 30%
4 - 24%
5 - 11%
6 - 3%
7 - 0.4%
8 - 0.02%
9 - 0%

Here is how I would handicap it by weight:

1773431167841.png
 
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Nashville_Hawk

Nashville_Hawk

All-Conference
Dec 31, 2015
706
1,851
93
InTheCircle said:
A while back I posted we could get 7 to the quarterfinals. However, at that time I saw Peterson, Kennedy, Ferrari and Keuter seeded higher. If Peterson, Ayala, Bailey, Kennedy, and Keuter make the quarterfinals they will be underdogs, with Kennedy, Ferrari and Ayala in toss up matches. The only one I’d bet on to make the semifinal now is Caliendo. In addition 2nd round matches are much tougher for Peterson and Keuter. I hope I am wrong. It’s March lay it on the line boys!
Click to expand...
Yep, once I saw the brackets, more than 4 AAs all of the sudden looked a tad more difficult. They will definitely need to show up or we could slip to the 7-8 line. I’m hoping Drake, PK, AF, and Mikey come out with serious game and give the big FU to all doubters!! Gabe going 2-2 will be impressive. I think the other four are in trouble barring some serious attitude. Bailey is on/off and the others have no consistent offense. Hoping I’m wrong but I’m thinking 4 AAs.
 
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E

el dub

All-Conference
Nov 2, 2005
576
1,495
93
Nashville_Hawk said:
Yep, once I saw the brackets, more than 4 AAs all of the sudden looked a tad more difficult. They will definitely need to show up or we could slip to the 7-8 line. I’m hoping Drake, PK, AF, and Mikey come out with serious game and give the big FU to all doubters!! Gabe going 2-2 will be impressive. I think the other four are in trouble barring some serious attitude. Bailey is on/off and the others have no consistent offense. Hoping I’m wrong but I’m thinking 4 AAs.
Click to expand...
I think they’re a lock for four AA’s. Six would be a really pleasant surprise, imo.
 
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InTheCircle

InTheCircle

All-Conference
Apr 3, 2018
381
1,294
93
el dub said:
I think they’re a lock for four AA’s. Six would be a really pleasant surprise, imo.
Click to expand...
I think Bailey is in a good spot. He’ll probably wrestle Vega and should be competitive. Double stall calls wouldn’t be surprising, however, they’ll go against Bailey. There’s a chance he’d wrestle former Hawk Henson in the blood round.
 
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T

Trapper85

Senior
Jun 22, 2020
178
640
93
Wrestleknownothing said:
Are you ready for real numbers?

0 - 40%
1 - 42%
2 - 15%
3 - 3%
4 - 0.3%
5 - 0.01%
6 - 0.000005%
7 - 0.00000008%
8 - 0.0000000005%
9 - 0%

Expected = 0.8 with Caliendo as the highest probability at 33% as only 40 of the last 120 #3 seeds have made the semis.
Click to expand...
If those are semis odds, looking like the streak of finalists will start with TnT as wrestlers and end with them as coaches. But I still think Mikey gets to finals, guess we shall see.
 
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W

Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,685
4,480
113
Trapper85 said:
If those are semis odds, looking like the streak of finalists will start with TnT as wrestlers and end with them as coaches. But I still think Mikey gets to finals, guess we shall see.
Click to expand...
The odds of a finalist are only slightly less than the odds of a semi-finalist as most 3 seeds who make the semis go on to the finals (~85% - or is it 83%?).
 
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H

hawknut

All-Conference
Jan 12, 2003
627
1,227
63
InTheCircle said:
A while back I posted we could get 7 to the quarterfinals. However, at that time I saw Peterson, Kennedy, Ferrari and Keuter seeded higher. If Peterson, Ayala, Bailey, Kennedy, and Keuter make the quarterfinals they will be underdogs, with Kennedy, Ferrari and Ayala in toss up matches. The only one I’d bet on to make the semifinal now is Caliendo. In addition 2nd round matches are much tougher for Peterson and Keuter. I hope I am wrong. It’s March lay it on the line boys!
Click to expand...
If Caliendo loses in semis, please, do not let anyone try to claim we have a semifinalist streak every year. The “yearly finalist streak” is already lame as hell. So beta.
 
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H

hawknut

All-Conference
Jan 12, 2003
627
1,227
63
Wrestleknownothing said:
Iowa has a good chance at 3 in the semis (with rounding):

0 - 1%
1 - 8%
2 - 22%
3 - 30%
4 - 24%
5 - 11%
6 - 3%
7 - 0.4%
8 - 0.02%
9 - 0%

Here is how I would handicap it by weight:

View attachment 1217364
Click to expand...
Isn’t your math wrong? You can get up to 3rd without making semis. So adding chances of each place 1 thru 6 up does not equal chances of being in semifinals.
 
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