So the Crown teams will be:
Top 2 Big 12: Likely Cincinnati and either Baylor or UCF
Top 2 Big 10: Likely Indiana and Washington, NU if Indiana somehow makes the tourney
Top 2 Big East: Likely Seton Hall and one of Creighton/Butler/Providence
2 At-Large: My guess would be some combination of New Mexico, San Diego State, Boise State, Baylor/UCF and West Virginia
NIT criteria:
Top 2 ACC: Likely NC State and SMU, maybe Virginia Tech or Stanford depending on the bubble
Top 2 SEC: Likely two of Missouri, Texas, Auburn and Oklahoma
1 team from the top 12 conferences -
SEC: One of Missouri/Texas/Auburn/Oklahoma that doesn't qualify for previous criteria
Big 12: One of the Baylor/UCF/West Virginia trio that gets left out of the Crown, or Arizona State
Big 10: USC or Minnesota
ACC: Whichever of Virginia Tech and Stanford don't qualify for previous criteria
Big East: One of the Creighton/Butler/Providence trio that doesn't make the Crown
Mountain West: One of the New Mexico/SDSU/Boise teams not selected for the Crown
Atlantic 10: Likely Dayton or George Mason
West Coast: Seattle
Missouri Valley: Belmont
American: Whichever of South Florida or Tulsa loses in their conference tourney
Big West: Whichever of UC Irvine or Hawaii loses in their conference tourney
WAC: Whichever of Utah Valley or Cal Baptist loses their conference tourney
Eligible regular season conference champs with average above 125 in 7 rating criteria: UC Irvine, Liberty, UNC Wilmington, Stephen F. Austin, Utah Valley, Yale, South Florida
Minimum 9 other teams chosen by committee: McNeese State, Tulsa, Akron, Oklahoma State, California, Florida State, Wake Forest, Nevada, Grand Canyon, Wichita State, Colorado
I think if we want postseason basketball, we root really hard for IU to make the tourney, because if we don't get the Crown spot, I don't think the NIT picks us based on their criteria. We would be the best of the remaining teams by predictive criteria, but we simply didn't win enough games to beat out Minnesota and USC. Obviously this all depends on who declines bids and what happens this week in the remaining conference tourneys.