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OT: Stock and Investment Thread

T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,770
19,772
113
rurahrah000 said:
Moreover, portfolio performance depends on how well your biggest investments perform and how well someone manages loses. Too often folks hold on to their losers for too long.
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I’ve been using tight levels of support as stop losses and they have served me well. I’ve definitely had more losers than winners in my personal account but it’s still up quite nicely YTD due to my energy and gold positions (and AVAV calls!).

Do you have a specific process for setting stop loss levels?
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,770
19,772
113
RU in IM said:
Yep, it’s not just how you perform on the upside, it’s also how you’re positioned in a time of weakness. Energy and energy represent over 12% of my equities, and have led my portfolio YTD. But this weak, not so much, although it did reduce the blow somewhat.
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^^^ Know the market has been in trouble when this guy starts posting! :)
 
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B

Bueller

Junior
Nov 28, 2025
249
252
63
And away we go....

"New York – Over the past few months, investors and analysts have been closely watching the shadowy corner of finance known as private credit, where warning signals feed fears of a repeat of the 2008 crisis."

mezha.net

Private Credit Turmoil Deepens as Major Funds Scramble to Meet Withdrawals | Ukraine news - #Mezha

An in depth look at the private credit market growth and rising liquidity stress, examining Blue Owl Blackstone and peers as investors weigh potential systemic risks in a 1.8 trillion sector.
mezha.net mezha.net


 
J

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,180
12,342
82
rurahrah000 said:
Moreover, portfolio performance depends on how well your biggest investments perform and how well someone manages loses. Too often folks hold on to their losers for too long.
Click to expand...
Disposition effect. Investors hold on to their losers or even add and sell winners/take profit due to loss aversion. Human psychology is the main reason why people should hire a financial advisor.
 
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R

rurahrah000

All-Conference
Aug 21, 2010
3,278
2,232
88
Oil at $100. Can’t be good for inflation. Will the Trump fed still cut interest rates if the war and oil prices persist for several months?
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,770
19,772
113
rurahrah000 said:
Oil at $100. Can’t be good for inflation. Will the Trump fed still cut interest rates if the war and oil prices persist for several months?
Click to expand...
When is it time to start shorting oil? When that tweet comes, the move back to $65 is going to be violent.
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,806
9,219
113
SCO, 2x inverse of WTI. Down 50% since the start of the year. Was a great trade when oil tanked in the early stages of Covid. 4x in a couple months. A near double if you timed it just right from June 2022 to Sept 2022.

Or maybe puts in USO, which is up about 40% in a couple weeks.

Not there yet, but I'll be watching.
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,806
9,219
113
rurahrah000 said:
Oil at $100. Can’t be good for inflation. Will the Trump fed still cut interest rates if the war and oil prices persist for several months?
Click to expand...
Someone mentioned that given the price of oil being so high the fed may cut to help lower prices. elsewhere.

But their final take was the fed will likely take a wait and see approach.

Maybe the Trump Fed uses the former logic when they are in place.
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,806
9,219
113
T2Kplus20 said:
When is it time to start shorting oil? When that tweet comes, the move back to $65 is going to be violent.
Click to expand...
Funny but I just mentioned this above.

I think $120 might be a level, as that is where it went after Russia invaded Ukraine.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,770
19,772
113
RU05 said:
Funny but I just mentioned this above.

I think $120 might be a level, as that is where it went after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Click to expand...
That sounds about right. HOOD and COIN have micro oil futures. Look like 6.1x leverage and $100 multiplier. So a move of $1 would generate profit/loss of $100 for each contract you hold.
 
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R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,806
9,219
113
Bueller said:
And away we go....

"New York – Over the past few months, investors and analysts have been closely watching the shadowy corner of finance known as private credit, where warning signals feed fears of a repeat of the 2008 crisis."

mezha.net

Private Credit Turmoil Deepens as Major Funds Scramble to Meet Withdrawals | Ukraine news - #Mezha

An in depth look at the private credit market growth and rising liquidity stress, examining Blue Owl Blackstone and peers as investors weigh potential systemic risks in a 1.8 trillion sector.
mezha.net mezha.net


Click to expand...

Past few months? Private credit stocks topped out 14 months ago. MSDL is in a downtrend 20 months deep.
 
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R

rurahrah000

All-Conference
Aug 21, 2010
3,278
2,232
88
RU05 said:
Someone mentioned that given the price of oil being so high the fed may cut to help lower prices. elsewhere.

But their final take was the fed will likely take a wait and see approach.

Maybe the Trump Fed uses the former logic when they are in place.
Click to expand...
What? Cutting interest rates will lower prices!!!
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,806
9,219
113
rurahrah000 said:
What? Cutting interest rates will lower prices!!!
Click to expand...
That is certainly a thought in regards to cars and houses.

Though there is certainly some that will argue against it.

Do remember we went through a long stretch of low rates and minimal inflation.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,770
19,772
113
RU-05 said:
Apparently i have 2 accounts now. My phone and my laptop.
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Yeah, it seems you do! Very weird. Didn't you create a new one due to a username issue?

Speaking about $100 oil. Didn't T Boone say something like:
The solution to $100 oil is $100 oil.
LOL!
 
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RU-05

RU-05

Redshirt
Mar 2, 2026
55
26
18
T2Kplus20 said:
Yeah, it seems you do! Very weird. Didn't you create a new one due to a username issue?

Speaking about $100 oil. Didn't T Boone say something like:
The solution to $100 oil is $100 oil.
LOL!
Click to expand...
Seymour always says something like that.

down to $94. I think closing below last weeks close after a big over night run up is bearish. But thats a good thing for us.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,770
19,772
113
RU-05 said:
Seymour always says something like that.

down to $94. I think closing below last weeks close after a big over night run up is bearish. But thats a good thing for us.
Click to expand...
I guess I missed out on that oil short opportunity. LOL!
 
R

Rutgers Chris

All-American
Nov 29, 2005
5,051
5,909
97
T2Kplus20 said:
You sir, just made a lot of money! :)
Click to expand...
Hustling Dave Chappelle GIF
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,770
19,772
113
rurahrah000 said:
I cashed out of my oil hedge as well. This war with Iran is really shady. Someone is making a ton of money.
Click to expand...
Did you see the predictions market action on the initial attack? Very shady stuff going on. A handful of people made hundreds of millions. Of course they knew something.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,770
19,772
113
rurahrah000 said:
I sold 75% of my SOUN holdings for CRWV which seems to be a good trade for today.
Click to expand...
Definitely a good move today. How are you feeling about SOUN long-term?

In other news:
@phs73rc77gsm83
I transferred out of two more of my mainstay mutual funds. No changes in segment/sector allocation just that the corresponding ETFs (indexes or versions of the funds) are just better and easier to manage. I'm down to only two funds.....FDGRX and FBGRX. Both have amazing fund managers and regularly beat their benchmarks. FBGRX actually has an ETF version, but slightly different, so not making that move yet.
 
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