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Just need one of 3 outcomes to clinch a first round bye.

LeapinLou

LeapinLou

All-American
Jul 24, 2001
13,142
6,759
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Following last night's results, most Big 10 teams only have one game left. Because of tiebreakers, RU has clinched a lead over PSU, UMD, and Oregon. Only Northwestern can finish above them. But for that to happen, all 3 of these things have to happen:

- RU loses at MSU tonight
- Northwestern wins at Minnesota Saturday night
- RU loses at home to Penn State on Sunday

While the first thing is highly likely to occur, you'd have to say there is a below 50% chance NU wins and the same for us losing at home. Overall, the chances of us not getting a bye are probably in the neighborhood of 10%.

So why don't I feel comfortable? :sick:
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
247,212
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DHajekRC1984 said:
NVM
Click to expand...

LeapinLou said:
Following last night's results, most Big 10 teams only have one game left. Because of tiebreakers, RU has clinched a lead over PSU, UMD, and Oregon. Only Northwestern can finish above them. But for that to happen, all 3 of these things have to happen:

- RU loses at MSU tonight
- Northwestern wins at Minnesota Saturday night
- RU loses at home to Penn State on Sunday

While the first thing is highly likely to occur, you'd have to say there is a below 50% chance NU wins and the same for us losing at home. Overall, the chances of us not getting a bye are probably in the neighborhood of 10%.

So why don't I feel comfortable? :sick:
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I would say its greater than 10%. Northwestern can beat Minnesota, thats not that tall of a task, We will know the stakes coming into the game on Sunday whether RU has to win the game or not. I feel like Im back in the big east where we are worrying about just qualifying,
 
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Simce91

All-Conference
Dec 2, 2024
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I'm mixed about this,

Does it benefit RU to play the 1st day, get a W, and have some confidence for day 2 and maybe finally beat a better team ?

That said, I would be very disappointed if RU loses at home to PSU
 
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R

RUDiddy777

Heisman
Feb 26, 2015
33,640
38,120
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Gotta think it’s 1 in 3. Think PSU and NW are favored despite being on the road.
 
G

goru7

All-American
Dec 12, 2005
6,415
7,677
113
RUDiddy777 said:
Gotta think it’s 1 in 3. Think PSU and NW are favored despite being on the road.
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Penn State will not be favored.
Furthermore , the angst is a little misplaced. We are 5-0 against the bottom 4 teams and Penn State and Maryland were road wins as well as beating Maryland at home. We are above those teams. They is an awful lot of shitting on our team and god knows we have our flaws but to not acknowledge that it is very likely we will not be playing on the first day is something that is positive. It doesn’t alleviate how disappointing this year has been but some not all posters had us winning 1-2 games in conference. It is most likely we will win 6 and although that still sucks it is better than the bottom 4 teams .Everything doesn’t have to be a **** fest
 
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DHajekRC1984

Senior
Jul 20, 2025
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Simce91 said:
I'm mixed about this,

Does it benefit RU to play the 1st day, get a W, and have some confidence for day 2 and maybe finally beat a better team ?

That said, I would be very disappointed if RU loses at home to PSU
Click to expand...
I have pretty much been in that camp of hoping to get that 1 win..but then again not being bottom 4 is an achievement as well. AND we need to beat PSU as well.

such a shame on that PSU FB game. Imagine being able to say we swept them in both sports.
 
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ScarletKid2008

Heisman
Sep 8, 2006
8,039
10,537
113
DHajekRC1984 said:
I have pretty much been in that camp of hoping to get that 1 win..but then again not being bottom 4 is an achievement as well. AND we need to beat PSU as well.

such a shame on that PSU FB game. Imagine being able to say we swept them in both sports.
Click to expand...

the win in football would've been worth a few seasons of sweeps in bball in their eyes (and mine).

I agree, getting a win in the big ten tournament would be a great thing. no matter what round that comes in.
 
M

Mr. Magoo1

Heisman
Nov 15, 2001
15,447
16,280
113
We’re acting like it matters whether we get a bye or not. This isn’t last year, where we might not make the tournament. The most we can hope for is one win if we get a bye and two wins if we don’t. Zero wins is the most likely outcome. Same crap, different year.
 
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Shelby65

All-Conference
Apr 1, 2008
8,342
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Simce91 said:
I'm mixed about this,

Does it benefit RU to play the 1st day, get a W, and have some confidence for day 2 and maybe finally beat a better team ?

That said, I would be very disappointed if RU loses at home to PSU
Click to expand...
Except that getting a 1st day win is 50/50.

Regardless, in general Shelby would prefer not getting a bye and therefore maybe winning a game.

Byes are only important for teams vying for a title. Every bye is one less win needed for that goal.

For the bottom feeders, irrelevant.

But in this case Shelby does want a win on Sunday so if that means getting a bye, so be it.
 
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NickRU714

Heisman
Aug 18, 2009
14,013
12,814
113
Assuming we lose both games - I would vote for Day 1 game and more likely to get a win.
13-20 is better than 12-20.

In a year nobody will care or remeber we had a 1st round bye or finished 14th/15th in conference.

But looking Sports-Reference in 5 years - more wins look better than less.
 
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PhillyRU

All-Conference
Apr 17, 2021
981
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I can't really bring myself to care that much about getting a bye in the B1GT, but it is pretty easily calculable.

(KenPom)
Odds of MSU beating RU, 97% (lol)
Odds of PSU beating RU, 38%
Odds of NW beating MINN, 41%

.97x.38x.41 = 15%
 
K

Knights 1212

All-American
Sep 9, 2003
27,549
8,483
113
I like the way we played tonight and hope we can defeat PSU on Sunday. If so we get a bye and should play USC or Washington. I think we should be able to give either of them a good game. Hoping for the best.
 
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