Over the next few weeks, keep your eyes on the Middle East

Teddy44

Sophomore
Sep 27, 2021
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The Epstein class also is desperate for distractions. Don't underestimate the motivation on that front.
That could very well be the case. I wouldn’t be surprised. I do think it’s very foolish of them to believe people will forget about that. Nobody with any real power, save for Thomas Massie and one or two others, will never do anything about it. Either because they knew and did nothing, were complicit in the cover up, were blackmailed, or are still involved in something similar. Probably won’t see much “justice” for those who went to that island. But this isn’t going to make any regular American (who isn’t completely
Blue pilled) forget that it happened. Probably nothing will ever restore their little credibility they had left. It’s like the pentagon papers and watergate x1000.
 

Dungeon09

Heisman
Dec 1, 2021
6,923
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Yeah the problem is that, in this case, Israel and the US are bedfellows of convenience rather than due to a shared vision of the region's future. Ostensibly the US wants Iran to transition into a state which can become a normalized member of the international order. The US views Iran through the lens of future great power conflict with Russia (lol) and China, and in theory a future Tehran which is going to be more US-aligned, or at least not tied to Moscow (lol) and Beijing is advantageous to US foreign interests.

Israel doesn't care about any of this; a failed state in Iran serves Israel's security interests by eliminating the threat of a possible nuclear-armed, hostile power. I think it was one of the former Israeli defense ministers who said that Israel must become like a rabid dog, too dangerous to bother. Israel being the only nuclear power in the middle east is sufficient to secure their own national security interests. Obviously this conflicts with US interests given it'd severely hamper the ability to transit the Strait of Hormuz, create a massive refugee crisis in the region and Europe, and create a massive power vacuum that would enable radical groups like AQ to thrive in.

Going back to my first post, states are rational actors that act in the interest of their continued survival. The US can negotiate with a state, even a hostile one like Iran. They can't negotiate with a failed state consumed by civil war between theocratic remnants, the IRGC factions, and religious and ethnic minorities, all of whom will have competing interests and varying degrees of openness/friendliness to the US and its interests.
I wouldn’t underestimate the number of individuals within the US government who see this conflict as a religious struggle and pre-requisite for their millennialist theology.
 

HunterPKP

Heisman
Nov 11, 2004
139,264
42,032
98
How am I acting like that? Where did I give the impression we didn't move assets into the region to defend there? Yes, they hate Iran, which is why they're involved in a proxy war in Yemen.

Saudi officials are bitchin and moanin on arab language TV/news about how we're prioritizing assets to defend Israel instead of them

You speak/understand Najdi Arabic, Gulf Arabic, and Hejazi Arabic? Color me impressed.
 

HunterPKP

Heisman
Nov 11, 2004
139,264
42,032
98
Sounds like the one-way suicide drones based on the Iranian Shahed are a major component right now. Zelenskyy says they've launched 57,000 to date.

Of course, we knocked it off with LUCAS. More than half the cost (I think they are $35,000 each?) and many equipped with StarShield, making them more resistant to GPS jamming.

UKR are also using a lot of Switchblade drones with deadly effect.
 

leetp

Heisman
Dec 6, 2021
14,764
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A few follow-ups

1. Can US ordinance supplies outlast the IRGC capability to defend? Feels almost like siege warfare on much grander scale

2. Can China press an advantage? What would that look like?
Good questions. Don't know the he answer. I've heard it said that between this and Ukraine our stock piles are low and our industry, not being a war footing, can't crank them out very quickly.

Still, I'd like to think we have enough strategic reserve to make the PRC think twice... and with the capability we have demonstrated against the relatively decent air defense systems here and in Venezuela, a third and fourth time.

I still have suspicions this is more about avoiding a war with China than about Iran (and Venezuela).
 

HunterPKP

Heisman
Nov 11, 2004
139,264
42,032
98
No, but I've seen commentary on the clips and the clips themselves floating around

To be candid, the Saudis have bought almost as much of our hardware as the Israelis have. They have over 200 F15s. Israel has around 300 total fighter aircraft. 6 Battalions of PAT 2 and 3 systems. Just ordered 730 replacement missiles for stock pile. As well as other systems. They are not hurting for hardware to the defend themselves. An argument can be made they are the 2nd strongest military in the region. Especially Air Force wise when compared to Israel, Turkey and Pakistan.
 

GDead_Tiger

Heisman
Dec 7, 2021
13,102
34,561
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Good questions. Don't know the he answer. I've heard it said that between this and Ukraine our stock piles are low and our industry, not being a war footing, can't crank them out very quickly.

Still, I'd like to think we have enough strategic reserve to make the PRC think twice... and with the capability we have demonstrated against the relatively decent air defense systems here and in Venezuela, a third and fourth time.

I still have suspicions this is more about avoiding a war with China than about Iran (and Venezuela).
We had help on the inside with Venezuela from what I've read.

On the China front, CENTCOM is siphoning resources from INDOPACOM, including moving some THAAD systems out of South Korea. With the PLA purges being carried out I think China is a ways offfrom doing anything. They have a remarkable amount of corruption in the PLA, it is basically encouraged with how low pay is
 

HunterPKP

Heisman
Nov 11, 2004
139,264
42,032
98
We had help on the inside with Venezuela from what I've read.

On the China front, CENTCOM is siphoning resources from INDOPACOM, including moving some THAAD systems out of South Korea. With the PLA purges being carried out I think China is a ways offfrom doing anything. They have a remarkable amount of corruption in the PLA, it is basically encouraged with how low pay is

China just learned this week that those shiny ADA systems they gave to Iran aren't very good. Pretty confident that has spooked them a bit as well.
 

USMClemson2007

All-Conference
Nov 26, 2022
611
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We had help on the inside with Venezuela from what I've read.

On the China front, CENTCOM is siphoning resources from INDOPACOM, including moving some THAAD systems out of South Korea. With the PLA purges being carried out I think China is a ways offfrom doing anything. They have a remarkable amount of corruption in the PLA, it is basically encouraged with how low pay is
We’ve had a ton of inside info with Iran also. The ayatollah was silly to think we didn’t know exactly where he was at all times. It’s a great thing for Iranians that he is dead.
Taking down the Iranian regime helps with China. Just like with Venezuela, China was buying Iranian oil on the cheap. Taking this cheap oil off the table will force them buy more oil in the open market. I’m definitely no expert on the PLA’s logistics capability, but I doubt it’s able to sustain combat operations for very long. The US has the most advanced military capabilities in the world, but what really sets us apart is the ability to sustain operations.
Regime change in Iran would have a real impact on China’s ability to sustain combat operations if they decide to make a move on Taiwan.
 
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BigPapaWhit

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Jun 15, 2014
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We had help on the inside with Venezuela from what I've read.

On the China front, CENTCOM is siphoning resources from INDOPACOM, including moving some THAAD systems out of South Korea. With the PLA purges being carried out I think China is a ways offfrom doing anything. They have a remarkable amount of corruption in the PLA, it is basically encouraged with how low pay is
There have been some narratives that the purges are Xi consolidating power.
 

HunterPKP

Heisman
Nov 11, 2004
139,264
42,032
98
We’ve had a ton of inside info with Iran also. The ayatollah was silly to think we didn’t know exactly where he was at all times. It’s a great thing for Iranians that he is dead.
Taking down the Iranian regime helps with China. Just like with Venezuela, China was buying Iranian oil on the cheap. Taking this cheap oil off the table will force them buy more oil in the open market. I’m definitely no expert on the PLA’s logistics capability, but I doubt it’s able to sustain combat operations for very long. The US has the most advanced military capabilities in the world, but what really sets us apart is the ability to sustain operations.
Regime change in Iran would have a real impact on China’s ability to sustain combat operations if they decide to make a move on Taiwan.

China's abilities to sustain operations more than very close regionally is NOT there and won't be for a while. They are rapidly building ships/capability there, but to say they can even do it a decade from now would likely be inaccurate.
 

ChuckChuck

Junior
Jul 7, 2025
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The most significant issue with this war is that there clearly was no plan in place. Israel has been attempting to get the US more involved militarily against Iran for 40 years. Unfortunately, Israel found a US President willing to take that leap (for whatever reasons).

During the Iraq War, we employed six carrier groups against a much smaller country, area wise, and a far less advanced military. We have one carrier in the area today. If the plan was to lop of the head and hope that the Iranians overthrow the country, that's not a plan but rather wishful thinking. You never enter a war without an exit strategy. Unfortunately, we just did.
 

GDead_Tiger

Heisman
Dec 7, 2021
13,102
34,561
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We’ve had a ton of inside info with Iran also. The ayatollah was silly to think we didn’t know exactly where he was at all times. It’s a great thing for Iranians that he is dead.
Taking down the Iranian regime helps with China. Just like with Venezuela, China was buying Iranian oil on the cheap. Taking this cheap oil off the table will force them buy more oil in the open market. I’m definitely no expert on the PLA’s logistics capability, but I doubt it’s able to sustain combat operations for very long. The US has the most advanced military capabilities in the world, but what really sets us apart is the ability to sustain operations.
Regime change in Iran would have a real impact on China’s ability to sustain combat operations if they decide to make a move on Taiwan.
With Venezuela I moreso meant that Maduro was negotiating with us and then his #2 cut him out of negotiations so we could remove Maduro and put the #2 in power. There isn't that kind of discord in Iran's regime as far as I know. The ayatollah also wanted a martyr's death since he was dying of cancer.

The PLA is a mess right now at least when it comes to leadership and preparedness for 2027 (that was Xi's target date). They also can't project force outside of the region
 

BigPapaWhit

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Jun 15, 2014
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...

The PLA is a mess right now at least when it comes to leadership and preparedness for 2027 (that was Xi's target date). They also can't project force outside of the region

Depends on what you mean by project force. What about the disrupting logistics, manufacturing, and communications? Covid proved how fragile the US manufacturing and logistic chains are. Huawei is more than just cell phones. We have done better but I am certain we are not there yet.

The where is also important. Lots of other geographical strategic points that are a lot closer to China than the US. Japan was able to project power through Indonesia and Polynesia during WWII. Remember Hawaii is about halfway between the Continental US and Guam.

Do I think something is imminent? Most likely not. However, I also recognize that the Chinese New Year does not align with the West. They do things their own way on their own time.
 

tboonpickens

Heisman
Sep 19, 2001
19,859
35,125
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The most significant issue with this war is that there clearly was no plan in place. Israel has been attempting to get the US more involved militarily against Iran for 40 years. Unfortunately, Israel found a US President willing to take that leap (for whatever reasons).
Bibi has been going on tv and telling us that Iran is days/weeks from a nuke for the last 30 years. I certainly don't blame Israel writ large for wanting the Iranian regime destroyed, but you're very right about Israel waiting for a US president willing to do its bidding.
 

GDead_Tiger

Heisman
Dec 7, 2021
13,102
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Depends on what you mean by project force. What about the disrupting logistics, manufacturing, and communications? Covid proved how fragile the US manufacturing and logistic chains are. Huawei is more than just cell phones. We have done better but I am certain we are not there yet.

The where is also important. Lots of other geographical strategic points that are a lot closer to China than the US. Japan was able to project power through Indonesia and Polynesia during WWII. Remember Hawaii is about halfway between the Continental US and Guam.

Do I think something is imminent? Most likely not. However, I also recognize that the Chinese New Year does not align with the West. They do things their own way on their own time.
Yes, China could cause some damage with logistics and rare earth metals. They aren't projecting power deep into the Pacific. They don't have that ambition. By that I mean military force
 

MisterWorst

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Jun 6, 2023
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Depends on what you mean by project force. What about the disrupting logistics, manufacturing, and communications? Covid proved how fragile the US manufacturing and logistic chains are. Huawei is more than just cell phones. We have done better but I am certain we are not there yet.

The where is also important. Lots of other geographical strategic points that are a lot closer to China than the US. Japan was able to project power through Indonesia and Polynesia during WWII. Remember Hawaii is about halfway between the Continental US and Guam.

Do I think something is imminent? Most likely not. However, I also recognize that the Chinese New Year does not align with the West. They do things their own way on their own time.
China and the US both have the issue of trying to operate within the South China Sea inside the first island chain. It's all relatively shallow and the undersea terrain is largely unremarkable so for China the gambit is how many subs can you break out, and how quickly. Likewise if you're the US it's a question of are you content to cede the sea if that mean you can keep your subs parked in relatively safer and deeper waters if it keeps China bottled up.

I think the idea of invading Taiwan is of greater utility to CCP rather than having outright control. The Chinese cultural zeitgeist is measured in millennia, what's waiting another decade or so? Just sit back as your belt and road initiative gives you soft power, continue consolidating the partnership with Kazakhstan that acts as a dagger pointed at Russia's underbelly, and point at the last decade of discord in the US and ask if that's really what you want in a partner. Trump's tariffs are driving a closer relationship between the EU and China at our own expense, and a war in China's back yard is gonna be bad for everyone involved. The Chinese have a saying that when two tigers fight, one is killed and the other mortally wounded.

TL;DR:
 

Dungeon09

Heisman
Dec 1, 2021
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Yes, China could cause some damage with logistics and rare earth metals. They aren't projecting power deep into the Pacific. They don't have that ambition. By that I mean military force
The real danger of conflict with China is a soft power thing as we saw with the 2020-2023 supply chain disruptions and chip shortages.
 

MisterWorst

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Yes, China could cause some damage with logistics and rare earth metals. They aren't projecting power deep into the Pacific. They don't have that ambition. By that I mean military force
China's goal is that by 2050, their power projection will be through the economic reliance that South Asia and the global South writ large have on them. Economically break the 'string of pearls' and A2/AD makes the US model obsolete by virtue of being too expensive to operate in China's zone of influence. Tie that in with the more medium term of obtaining technological parity with the US and the idea of a US-China war becomes a moot point.

Throwing it back to Mahan, the US focus on offensive fleet engagement gets countered by an economic fleet-in-being. Why go to war when there's more money to be made in peace? The capitalists sell us the rope we'll hang them with, etc, etc.
 
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ChucktownK

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Sounds like the one-way suicide drones based on the Iranian Shahed are a major component right now. Zelenskyy says they've launched 57,000 to date.

Of course, we knocked it off with LUCAS. More than half the cost (I think they are $35,000 each?) and many equipped with StarShield, making them more resistant to GPS jamming.

Shahed 136s are the primary OWA drone used, I think that is what hit a sustainment facility in Kuwait and killed those Army soldiers. We shoot them down mostly with Coyote, but that interceptor program is a complete configuration mgmt mess and not fielded everywhere.

LUCAS is pretty much identical to a shahed externally with a Hellfire equivalent inside. StarShield is almost impossible to jam.
 

ChucktownK

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China just learned this week that those shiny ADA systems they gave to Iran aren't very good. Pretty confident that has spooked them a bit as well.

Funny meme going around is that Venezuela and Iran both bought these shiny new Anti-Stealth radars from China to see incoming F-35s.

When you see the radar explode, you know there's an F35 in the area, so the radar works!
 

P. Marlowe

Heisman
Dec 7, 2009
13,995
25,732
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Yeah the problem is that, in this case, Israel and the US are bedfellows of convenience rather than due to a shared vision of the region's future. Ostensibly the US wants Iran to transition into a state which can become a normalized member of the international order. The US views Iran through the lens of future great power conflict with Russia (lol) and China, and in theory a future Tehran which is going to be more US-aligned, or at least not tied to Moscow (lol) and Beijing is advantageous to US foreign interests.

Israel doesn't care about any of this; a failed state in Iran serves Israel's security interests by eliminating the threat of a possible nuclear-armed, hostile power. I think it was one of the former Israeli defense ministers who said that Israel must become like a rabid dog, too dangerous to bother. Israel being the only nuclear power in the middle east is sufficient to secure their own national security interests. Obviously this conflicts with US interests given it'd severely hamper the ability to transit the Strait of Hormuz, create a massive refugee crisis in the region and Europe, and create a massive power vacuum that would enable radical groups like AQ to thrive in.

Going back to my first post, states are rational actors that act in the interest of their continued survival. The US can negotiate with a state, even a hostile one like Iran. They can't negotiate with a failed state consumed by civil war between theocratic remnants, the IRGC factions, and religious and ethnic minorities, all of whom will have competing interests and varying degrees of openness/friendliness to the US and its interests.

I would argue that Iran, Russia, and a few others are not rational and not acting in the best interest of their survival. They may have dictators acting in the best interests of themselves/the ruling class. Any time you are willing to sabotage your country’s wealth/economy at the expense of political/geopolitical/human/etc. capital and a plurality’s (at best) religious views, it isn’t rational. It isn’t rational to chant death to America or to disappear your own citizens at scale for breaking morality laws like showing your hair as a female. It isn’t rational to sponsor terrorism for ideological reasons when the result is sanctions that erode your economy severely for years to the point the populace despises you at the majority level. Or use proxies to attack countries that could quite literally destroy you.

It isn’t rational to invade a neighbor unprovoked and spend 4 years and countless lives fighting a protracted war for territorial gains that make the trench warfare of WW1 look like the Blitzkrieg. Especially, when you’re already the largest country by landmass and one of the most thinly populated. All while sanctions and the mounting costs of that appallingly stupid decision reduce your economy to the point you’re basically bartering with other autocrats to survive and your former image as that of a major world player and a somewhat respectable military power crumbled years ago.
 

leetp

Heisman
Dec 6, 2021
14,764
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The most significant issue with this war is that there clearly was no plan in place. ...
I, for the life of me, do not understand this take. I don't know why you think so little of the whole of our civilian and military leadership ship that we do not have a plan. There is most definitely a plan. There has always been a plan. The plan has been in place for decades and gets reviewed and revised regularly. These plans are not and will never be shared with us.

Nevertheless, I understand while many, myself included, may not trust the plan. We have not failed to screw up such plans since the successful conclusion of WWII.
 

Dungeon09

Heisman
Dec 1, 2021
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I, for the life of me, do not understand this take. I don't know why you think so little of the whole of our civilian and military leadership ship that we do not have a plan. There is most definitely a plan. There has always been a plan. The plan has been in place for decades and gets reviewed and revised regularly. These plans are not and will never be shared with us.

Nevertheless, I understand while many, myself included, may not trust the plan. We have not failed to screw up such plans since the successful conclusion of WWII.
I think it’s more that the people actually calling the shots (not the military planners whose entire job it is to plan out contingencies) aren’t personally clear on what the next steps should look like.
 

MisterWorst

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I would argue that Iran, Russia, and a few others are not rational and not acting in the best interest of their survival. They may have dictators acting in the best interests of themselves/the ruling class. Any time you are willing to sabotage your country’s wealth/economy at the expense of political/geopolitical/human/etc. capital and a plurality’s (at best) religious views, it isn’t rational. It isn’t rational to chant death to America or to disappear your own citizens at scale for breaking morality laws like showing your hair as a female. It isn’t rational to sponsor terrorism for ideological reasons when the result is sanctions that erode your economy severely for years to the point the populace despises you at the majority level. Or use proxies to attack countries that could quite literally destroy you.

It isn’t rational to invade a neighbor unprovoked and spend 4 years and countless lives fighting a protracted war for territorial gains that make the trench warfare of WW1 look like the Blitzkrieg. Especially, when you’re already the largest country by landmass and one of the most thinly populated. All while sanctions and the mounting costs of that appallingly stupid decision reduce your economy to the point you’re basically bartering with other autocrats to survive and your former image as that of a major world player and a somewhat respectable military power crumbled years ago.
As someone who supports the Western liberal order I agree, Russia and Iran aren't acting in the interests of their own people. It's better for the international order to have a secular government operating in some sort of democratic fashion, to transition from a resource-based economy to a knowledge-based one, and to pursue the types of policies that open up their economies and create a healthy middle class. It's in the US (and the world's) interest to have stable and healthy countries which can be relied upon as regional partners. So in that context, yes, they appear to be acting irrationally.

But the authoritarians which rule Russia, Iran, North Korea, and other countries, view their own regimes as the state. It's why a common refrain on Russian media is that "a world without Russia is no world at all" right before they make their hourly quota of threatening nuclear desolation against Ukraine, Europe, and the US. If your entire goal is continuance of the regime, disappearing, imprisoning, and killing dissidents within your borders is a rational act. Creating the specter of a foreign enemy like Russia has with NATO, or Iran with it's 'Great Satan' of the US and Israel (or as I said earlier with the idea of Taiwan existing is more useful to China than actually conquering it) is rational because it creates an other you can blame your countries problem on. IE, we were sanctioned because the US is a villain, not because the regime is becoming geopolitically isolated.

Iran got 30+ years out of funding terror cells in the Middle East to bog down Israel and the US' own military adventurism - gun running to Hamas and Hezbollah is a rational act to give your enemies something to focus on rather than you. Russia sees the former territories of the Russian Tsardom and USSR as rightfully there's - invading to create a buffer zone to protect the cultural heartland of Muscovy is so deeply ingrained in Russia that it's governed their geopolitics for the last 300 years.

The control that an authoritarian regime is able to exert over the apparatus of the state makes them fundamentally the state; therefore they act in the best interest of the state, because that itself is the best interest of the regime. Even when such actions are at the expense of the citizenry, which exist solely to serve the state.
 

GDead_Tiger

Heisman
Dec 7, 2021
13,102
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I, for the life of me, do not understand this take. I don't know why you think so little of the whole of our civilian and military leadership ship that we do not have a plan. There is most definitely a plan. There has always been a plan. The plan has been in place for decades and gets reviewed and revised regularly. These plans are not and will never be shared with us.

Nevertheless, I understand while many, myself included, may not trust the plan. We have not failed to screw up such plans since the successful conclusion of WWII.
We are getting conflicting words and actions on what the plan is, and I'll leave it at that. Even Merz, the German Chancellor, said it doesn't seem like we have a plan. There was a communication breakdown between different agencies and now ten (hundreds) of thousands of Americans are stranded in the ME with no plan to get them out
 

MisterWorst

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I, for the life of me, do not understand this take. I don't know why you think so little of the whole of our civilian and military leadership ship that we do not have a plan. There is most definitely a plan. There has always been a plan. The plan has been in place for decades and gets reviewed and revised regularly. These plans are not and will never be shared with us.

Nevertheless, I understand while many, myself included, may not trust the plan. We have not failed to screw up such plans since the successful conclusion of WWII.
Iraq and Afghanistan are recent and excellent examples of the US military being able to rapidly win the war but the political apparatus backing the military having no plan to win the peace. It's not that the US military doesn't have a literal plan to successfully attack Iran, or that they lack the means to do so, but that the current administration doesn't have any plan in place for what comes after the bombs stop falling. Winning the peace is arguably more important than winning the war.
 

MisterWorst

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We are getting conflicting words and actions on what the plan is, and I'll leave it at that. Even Merz, the German Chancellor, said it doesn't seem like we have a plan. There was a communication breakdown between different agencies and now ten (hundreds) of thousands of Americans are stranded in the ME with no plan to get them out
Kash Patel also recently fired a number of experts on Iran and counter-espionage. Which isn't great in a vacuum, but the timing suggests that the administration's plan for Iran wasn't being communicated to all the relevant parts.

 

MisterWorst

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Also as an aside, but I'm only just now realizing the air campaign in Iran is called Operation Epic Fury. How cringe is that? WWII gave us elite names like Operation Chattanooga Choo-Choo, Operation Super Gymnast, and Operation Toenails. We used to be a proper country.
 

BigPapaWhit

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Jun 15, 2014
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I would argue that Iran, Russia, and a few others are not rational and not acting in the best interest of their survival. They may have dictators acting in the best interests of themselves/the ruling class. Any time you are willing to sabotage your country’s wealth/economy at the expense of political/geopolitical/human/etc. capital and a plurality’s (at best) religious views, it isn’t rational. It isn’t rational to chant death to America or to disappear your own citizens at scale for breaking morality laws like showing your hair as a female. It isn’t rational to sponsor terrorism for ideological reasons when the result is sanctions that erode your economy severely for years to the point the populace despises you at the majority level. Or use proxies to attack countries that could quite literally destroy you.

It isn’t rational to invade a neighbor unprovoked and spend 4 years and countless lives fighting a protracted war for territorial gains that make the trench warfare of WW1 look like the Blitzkrieg. Especially, when you’re already the largest country by landmass and one of the most thinly populated. All while sanctions and the mounting costs of that appallingly stupid decision reduce your economy to the point you’re basically bartering with other autocrats to survive and your former image as that of a major world player and a somewhat respectable military power crumbled years ago.
There are thinkers out there saying Xi may accelerate the timeline to fit his needs, with the communist parties second, and Chinese Dynastic a distant third