Bacatology 3/2 NCAA Tourney Bracket Analysis

bac2therac

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Jul 30, 2001
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Grab a cup of java and your favorite kringle and hop in.

31 AQs indictate by asterik *
37 at large bids. I am locking in schools all the way down to the Miami (Fla) on the 9 seed line.
That takes cares of 25 at larges leaving only 12 open and 24 schools competing for them

Didnt have time to proof read so help a brother out. Be kind!


YIKES..INFURIATING...WOULD NOT LET ME POST MORE THAN 10000 CHARACTERS IN A POST..NEVER HAD THIS PROBLEM BEFORE ON RIVALS...SCREW YOU ON3....


ONE SEEDS: Duke*, Michigan*, Arizona*, Connecticut*


TWO SEEDS: Florida*, Iowa State, Houston, Illinois

THREE SEEDS: Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, Kansas

FOUR SEEDS: Texas Tech, Virginia, Alabama, Gonzaga*

FIVE SEEDS: Arkansas, Saint John's, Vanderbilt, North Carolina

SIX SEEDS: Tennessee, BYU, Wisconsin, Kentucky

SEVEN SEEDS: Saint Mary's, Louisville, Utah State*, Saint Louis*

EIGHT SEEDS: Clemson, Villanova, Central Florida, Iowa

NINE SEEDS: Miami (Fla), North Carolina State, Missouri, Georgia
:
TEN SEEDS: Miami (Ohio)*, Texas, UCLA, SMU

ELEVEN SEEDS: Ohio State, Texas A&M, TCU/Santa Clara, New Mexico/Indiana

TWELVE SEEDS: South Florida*, Belmont*, Yale*, Liberty*

THIRTEEN SEEDS: Stephen F Austin*, Utah Valley State*, UNC Wilmington*, High Point*

FOURTEEN SEEDS: North Dakota State*, UC Irvine*, Navy*, Troy*

FIFTEEN SEEDS: Central Arkansas*, Portland State*, East Tennessee State*, Wright State*

SIXTEEN SEEDS: Merrimack*, Tennessee State*, UMBC*/Bethune Cookman*, Long Island*/Howard*



FIRST FOUR BYES: UCLA, SMU, OHIO STATE, TEXAS A&M

LAST 4 IN: INDIANA, SANTA CLARA, NEW MEXICO, TCU

FIRST 4 OUT: VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, CALIFORNIA, AUBURN, USC

NEXT 4 OUT: SAN DIEGO STATE
, VIRGINIA TECH, CINCINNATI, WEST VIRGINIA

ON DECK: SETON HALL, OKLAHOMA STATE, STANFORD, BOISE STATE


SEC: 10
Big 10: 10
Big 12: 8
ACC: 8
Big East: 3
WCC: 3
MWC" 2



Wouldnt let me post the whole thing, said it was more than 10000 characters so the rest will be below
 
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bac2therac

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IN

(29) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 19-10: There are some really good positives here. For starters the Q1/2/3 of 15-9 is very strong for a power 5 conference bubble school as is the 11-9 Q2 mark with some sneaky good wins vs bubble teams Boise, VCU, Va Tech. While NC State does not possess the high end type wins...having 2 Q1 road wins over Clemson/SMU are big. The other big win was North Carolina and there is one further down vs Liberty to make a 4-7 mark vs the field. I will say though there is a Quad 4 home loss to Georgia Tech. Anytime you have one of those you do not want to be in an end of the season swoon. Wolfpack have dropped 4 of 5. Nothing damaging about losing Q1 games to top ACC schools but Saturday's Q2 road loss at Notre Dame at least gives some pause here. With the last 2 being a homestand vs Duke/Stanford. If the Pack cannot get the former they would do themselves well to get the former just to keep them from sweating it out Selection Sunday. Note the SOR/WAB have already slipped to 42/39 running behind their net and predictive rankings


(53) MISSOURI 20-9: Disregard the consternation about the Tigers' wobbly NET number as it belies the depth of the victories they have notched this year. Yes a bunch of Q1 losses including a 43 point doozy to Illinois caused the Tigers NET to lag all season but Mizzou has simply gone out and won. Highlighting their resume is a feather in their cap home win over surging Florida. 5-5 in Q1 with wins at Kentucky/A&M and home to Tennessee and Vandy. 5-4 in Q2 shows an additional win over controversial bubble Auburn. 5-6 vs field. Look further down the road and there are actually 2 additional wins vs projected teams in the field Howard and Bethune Cookman. Despite 3 losses to non ncaa teams, no loss outside Q2. Key here is that the SOR/WAB of 32/33 are quite strong. Last 2 of at Oklahoma and Arky and do not think even 2 losses hurt them much. Pending on finish, what the selection committe ultimately values in their seeding process and whether the NET ranking will factor at all into it, could have Missouri anywhere from an 8 to an 11.


31) GEORGIA 20-9:
Bulldogs are not quite there yet but the metrics of SOR/WAB at 33/35 say full send. Strong 5-7 in Q1 highlighted by a road win at Kentucky plus a home win over Arkansas and a win at Missouri. Quad 2 mark is outstanding 5-1 with wins over Texas and bubble Auburn. There is a Q3 loss to Ole Miss, but the Q1/2/3 mark at 11-9 is solid enough. Some drawbacks are that the non conference sos of 300 is a bit sketch and the 4-7 mark vs the field is lacking that really high end win. Of course a home win over Alabama would make it academic but so would a win at Mississippi State. I suppose some unlikely scenario exists where they lose both and then lose first SEC tourney could move them closer to the cut line.


(37) TEXAS 17-11: Horns are a strong 6-8 vs the projected field and the only real worry here is dropping their last 2 and SEC tourney game that could drop them to 17-14. 6-8 in Q1 shows wins 3 coveted road wins at Alabama, Missouri, and Texas A&M plus a neutral site win over NC State and a home win over Vandy. With a whopping 14 Q1 games. just 4 for a 2-2 split in Q2 shows a win over Georgia. There is that Q3 loss to Mississippi State and Texas is just 10-11 vs Q1/2/3 so you see ending on a 3 game losing streak would put that mark at an ugly 10-14. Still if they can win either at Arkansas or home to Oklahoma they will lock in. SOS at 15 is quite strong and the SOR/WAB still have some cushion at 37/40.


(39) UCLA 19-10: Bruins' loss at Minnesota wasn't too damaging to their placement in the pecking order as it still counts as a Q1 road loss. While not an overwhelming profile, its a clean resume with no true bad loss outside of Q2 and when you have 2 wins like they do over Illinois and Purdue, schools on the 2/3 line, it carries alot of weight. SOR/WAB doable for now both at 38. 3-8 in Q1 and 9-10 in Q2, up to an acceptable 12-10 in Q1/2/3. Unfortunately those 2 aforementioned wins are their only wins vs the field 2-9. There two losses to bubbles Indiana and California that could play a role. The road mark at 3-6 is suspect with just a win at NET inflated Washington being their best. Best OOC was just Arizona State but at least they tried with losses to Arizona/Gonzaga. Conference mark does not matter so that they are 11-7 in the Big 10 isnt an asset. Bruins finish with Nebraska and a trip to fading bubble USC. They are going to need one of those games because if not they will be sliding to the last 4 in/last 2 out grouping.
 

bac2therac

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(36) SMU 19-10: Mustangs metrics have been sliding at they have lost 3 of their last 5 to non NCAA schools getting swept by bubbles Cal and Stanford on the road last week. Getting murkier now at 44/43 SOR/WAB. SMU is just 3-6 vs the field highlighted by home wins over North Carolina and Louisville and a nifty neutral site win over bubble in Texas A&M. 4-8 in Quad 1 and just 7-10 in Q1/2. A better 12-10 in Q1/2/3 and having a clean profile helps. Do not have a quality road win and no the Wake win in Q1 really does not move the needle. Miami at home is up next and a win there will lock them in. However if they fail, the Mustangs cannot afford a 5th loss to a non NCAA school at Florida State.


(34) OHIO STATE 18-11: Buckeyes have seemingly been floating around the bubble since the season began in November but lately have resided moreso as a bubble out. Finally they got their much needed marquee win by dispatching of Purdue yesterday and perhaps more importantly passing the eye test in front of a national audience. Again the selection committee likes clean profiles with strong sos. OSU has a SOS of 20 and no loss outside Q2. The additional wins vs field of Wisconsin and UCLA at home put them 3-9 vs the field. There are 2 additional wins vs wrong side of bubbles WVU and USC. 2-10 vs Q1 looks ugly agreed but 6-0 in Q2 helps. Yes the road success isnt there with Northwestern being their best road win and they would likely want that loss at Pitt back which probably would have locked them in the field. Still the SOR/WAB at 39/37 give them some breathing room. A landmine road trip to Penn State up next and a win there probably puts them in the field even without a win vs fellow bubble Indiana at home.


(43) TEXAS A&M 19-10: Truth to be told, not a big fan of the Aggies resume. Its really on 3 low end Q1 SEC road wins: Georgia, Texas and Auburn and the latter is no longer projected in the field. That leaves A&M a paltry 2-8 vs the field with their best wins over projected 9 seeds. Losing 6 of their last 8 has damaged their metrics. SOR/WAB at 40/44 is sliding toward the cut line. SOS at 60/266 is not a positive. 4-8 in Q1., 8-10 in Q1/2, 11-10 Q1/2/3 is okay but lets see what happens in final 2. Home to Kentucky and landmine at LSU. Beat the Cats and they are dancing but if they do not have that win at LSU becomes mandatory to stay on the right side of the bubble although still vulnerable to being in the first four games.

LAST 4 IN

(45) TCU 19-10: Frogs have an interesting resume but it is the type that ultimately will keep them hovering near the last 4 in line. TCU has won 6 of 7 taking care of business against teams they needed to and threw in a big feather in their cap win over Iowa State. That went along way to healing a resume badly scarred early on with a Q4 home loss to New Orleans plus a Q3 home loss to Notre Dame. Oh did I mention they also have a neutral site win over Florida looking better and better by the day. 4-6 in Q1 add in the neutral site win over Wisconsin and 9-8 in Q1/2. Three very good winss, 3-6 vs the field but again the 2 Q3/4 losses so you see the conundrum here. Ultimately I think moreso for seeding than inclusion but we shall see about that. SOR/WAB at 41/42 put them in for now. Tough last 2 at Texas Tech and home to unpredictable Cincinnati. If they can beat Cincy, the comparison to other bubble schools is the wins should matter more than those bad losses.


(42) NEW MEXICO 21-7: Lobos manage to creep into the field due to the crumbling of the power 5 bubble around them and a nifty home win over San Diego State which knocked the Aztecs out of the MW AQ perch. Are we really talking about the Mountain West now struggling to get a 2nd bid. Well times have changed. The Lobos of course best move would be to win the conference tourney which they did 2 years ago to barge into the dance. Just 2-5 in Quad 1 but a better 8-6 in Q2. Unfortuately not many games or wins against the field. Just 1-2 with losses to Utah State and Nebraska and a win over Santa Clara. The SC win is notable because both schools are similarly in the same spot in the pecking order. Head to head just makes up one part of dozens of things looked at but in this case the Lobos won 98-71. If it comes down to it, a 2nd team from the 6th rated Mountain West vs a third team from the 8th rated WCC who beat that team by 27 is a no brainer for me. Also note that win at fellow bubble VCU. Two aces to have for them. Problems exist though as they have 5 losses to non in the field schools and lost to Boise 2x. SOR/WAB seem problematic at the moment at 49/45. There is a Quad 3 loss to New Mexico State they really want to have back. Last 2 of Colorado State and then the biggie at Utah State. Lobos can all but lock in with a win there. Short of that they remain teetering on the edge.


(40) SANTA CLARA 23-7: Broncs have completed WCC regular season play and will be the #3 seed awaiting play in the quarterfinals. What can we say about their profile but its riding on a win over Saint Marys and a whole lot of Q2/3 wins. Just 1-5 in Quad 1 but 7 Q2 wins move them to 8-6 and 7 Q3 wins move them to 15-6 in Q1/2/3 which is strong for a mid major and more in this catagory than any power 5 bubble. Yet they are just 1-5 vs the field and they lost to fellow bubble New Mexico by 27. Do both get in, do neither get in, does one get in. Hard to know if the committee will throw a bone or 2 to a mid major over a bloated Indiana or Auburn or California. While Indiana/Auburn have better wins, hard to take them over SC with these side by side numbers: Q1/2 4-12 vs 8-6, Q1/2/3 9-14 vs 15-6. I will say that there is a Q4 loss to 303 Loyola here that the Broncs must be gnashing their teeth over because they would be a lock without it. SOS of 87/98 works for a midmajor here and the SOR/WAB at 43/41 puts them above New Mexico. . I would like to see them beat St Marys in the WCC semis to earn their way and not leave it to fate.



(41) INDIANA 17-12: Honestly do not like having the Hoosiers in my field but here they are. 4 straight losses, its okay that 3 of them were to 2 seed contenders but the home loss to Northwestern was egregious. While OSU was taking advantage and knocking off Purdue at home yesterday, backs against the wall, Indiana came up flat against Sparty. Lets start with the sickly 2-10 Q1 mark which is equally as horrible in Q1/2 at 4-12. Yes yes its a clean profile but no no 13 of their 17 wins are coming from Q3/4. The SOR/WAB have skid to 48/50. Technically their trio of wins of Purdue, Wisconsin at UCLA are better than the Buckeyes' wins but its hard to clean up the numbers staring at you. Non conference the best win is Q3 Kansas State. Hoosiers must win their last 2..home to Minnesota and at Ohio State. That could be enough to get them in but still hanging near the cut line and with bid stealers and such, they may need a strong Big 10 tourney run as well.
 

bac2therac

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OUT


(47) VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 22-7: Every year I am faced with a rather flimsy A10 team floating near the cut line basically doing nothing but racking up alot of Q3 wins while avoiding bad losses. The selection committee seems to have an affinity for the A10 despite its lack of luster. VCU with their 1-5 mark a neutral site with over AAC AQ South Florida and thats their only win vs the field 1-6. They tried ooc which is rated 85 ooc but lost to Vandy, NC State, Utah State, and New Mexico. Their sexiest win might be the one on a neutral court over bubble Virginia Tech. Is this NCAA worthy? Personally no but the committee is another matter. VCU is 8-0 in Q3 which brings their Q1/2/3 mark up to 15-7 and with the overall sos at 96 you see why the SOR/WAB right on the cut line at 46 put them right there despite the lack of oomph on the resume. Need to take care of George Mason, a Q3 home game and a Q1 road game at Dayton, if they can get both, I think they are more than 50/50 in the field.


(64) CALIFORNIA 19-9: Just when you thought that Cal was going to end a 10 year NCAA drought, the Bears proceeded to go out and spit the bit at home against a terrible Pitt team. A Q3 loss, the clean resume argument is gone on a profile that now has 5 losses to non in the field schools. Drek like Syracuse, Kansas State and Florida State included. Those losses get reflected in the below the cut line numbers of 50/51 in the SOR/WAB plus the overall net of 64 which is one of the loudest on the bubble. To make matters worse the non conference sos of 331 is a screaming red flag almost unheard of getting an at large. Yet they are 4-4 vs the field with a win over UNC, bubbles UCLA and SMU and a road win at Miami. Not sure those wins can overcome the negatives. Bears have given the committee more than one reason to leave them out and its never a good thing. Yet because the bubble is such garbage this year, the Bears missing out is not a far gone conclussion. They need to win at GeoTech/Wake for starters and then make waves in the ACC tourney.


(38) AUBURN 15-14: Tigers bounce out of the field after an inexplicable Q3 home loss to Ole Miss. Last year's inclusion of Texas softened the stance against schools 2 or 3 games above 500 and proved they were leaning toward rewarding quad 1 wins vs a bulky amount of losses. That worked for Auburn until this last lost. Just ONE game above .500 its a bridge I will not cross. Auburn with outstanding sos marks of 2/16 would make the tourney alone on the record vs the field which is 6-11..actually 7-11 if you throw in Bethune Cookman. Auburn has a giant high end with at Florida, a neutral site win over St Johns plus home wins over Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina State, and Texas. But 7 lossses in their last 8 has put the skids to their numbers...5-11 in Q1, 7-13 in Q1/2 and a sickly 9-14 in Q1/2/3. That is alot of losing at FIVE games under .500 there and I do not care who you beat or how tough your schedule is. The SOR/WAB at 45-47 is now right on top of the cut line. How they finish is going to determine everything. Games vs LSU and at Alabama remain. Win both and they are in no question to me. Win the first and lose the 2nd and that is where again the one game above 500 thing is going to do them unless they can win TWO games in the SEC tourney to get in. It would be a historic selection for them to get in at 17-16 and would go down as the most scandalous at large pick of all time


(63) USC 17-11: Trojans are slip slidin away and the latest hit came today when their leading scorer Baker-Mazara was dismissed from the team. The ramifications are immediate given they have just 2 games left to revive their hopes. A road trip to Washington and a home clash with UCLA. Those are mandatory wins but even if they somehow get them, the NCAA selection committee will be well aware USC's star player is gone and that will impact how they already view a teetering resume showing 5 consecutive defeats. I will say the SOR/WAB at 47/48 is near the cut line and improves on their poor overall net. 2-8 in Quad 1 showing a win at Wisconsin is followed up by a better 7-2 in Q2 with a win over Indiana. That 9-10 Q1/2 is pretty solid. Even the 13-11 Q1/2/3 is better than most power 5 schools around the bubble. Only the Oregon loss counts as a Q3 but those losses to Washington and Northwestern at home are killers even if they are Quad 2. 2-8 vs the field is not good considering their other win is Indiana considered last in/last out. Expect them to go out quietly over the next 2 weeks.
 

bac2therac

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(44) SAN DIEGO STATE 18-9: Aztecs stunned Utah State to grab the MW AQ but that did not last long as they could not pick up the win at New Mexico which dropped them back into the at large pool. Now they find themselves with a middling profile that is behind a bunch of high mid major bubbles. 2-5 in Q1 and a just okay 78 in Q1/2 and 12-9 in Q1/2/3. Just 2-4 vs the field, 3-5 if you throw in a win vs Utah Valley and a loss to Troy. Split with New Mexico but they have 5 losses to schools not in the field. This is not your older brothers San Diego State resume and the SOS while strong at 76/44 will not help them this year. SOR/WAB at 55/52 scream trouble ahead. The good news is they figure to be a legit threat to win the MW tourney as usual but if they can win the last 2 at Boise and UNLV plus reach the finals of the MW tourney which may entail a win over New Mexico, a case could be made for them.


(54) VIRGINIA TECH 18-11: Hokies are hanging around despite a 2-9 Quad 1 mark and a 2-7 mark vs the field. A home win over Virginia and a road win at Clemson shouldnt an at large resume make but here we are. The 6-1 mark in Q2 which pushes them to 8-10 Q1/2 keeps them in and are 500 at 11-11 Q1/2/3. There is a barely Q3 loss to Fla State at 77 that can easily be moved to Q2 but that and a one point loss to bubble Stanford in Q2 are the type of losses that make the difference between first four and the Crown. Note there is a loss OOC to VCU. The SOR/WAB of 51/49 are on the wrong side of the cut line but better than expected. If the Hokies can beat BC and find a way to win at Virginia, they very well could vault into the field. Short of that they will need to win the ACC tourney.


(49) CINCINNATI: 16-13: Bearcats are the zombie bubble school of the year after winning for the 5th time in 6 tries. Their marquee win of course is the road win at Kansas but the home win over Iowa State is another feather in their cap win but the Q1 mark is just 2-10. Their 3rd win vs the field (3-10) comes in Q2 over UCF but they are just 4-2 there leaving them a sickly 6-12 Q1/2 and 9-12 in Q1/2/3/ What is particularly scarring on the resume is the Q4 home loss to Eastern Michigan. You can almost make a case for them without that loss. So with 2 Quad 1 opportunities left vs BYU at home and TCU on the road, the Bearcats still can play their way very close to the cut line. The SOR/WAB at 66 says no for now so go out and win those games and let's see those numbers improve heading into the Big 12 tourney.


(58) WEST VIRGINIA 17-12: The Moutaineers back from the dead after breaking a 3 game losing skid with a home win over BYU. The light is at least flickering but its going to be tough to overcome some of their numbers. While the Quad 1 record is quite strong at 5-7, only 3 of them are against schools in the field...Kansas, BYU, at UCF. 3-7 vs the field and 5 count em 5 losses to schools not in the field including a Q3 loss to lowly Utah at home. The Q2 mark of 1-4 puts them at a woeful 6-11 Q1/2 and they are just 9-12 in Q1/2/3. SOR/WAB is woeful 63/60. At minimum to stay in contention, the Mountaineers need to win at Kansas State and knock off UCF again and pick up a major victory in the Big 12 tournament.

(56) SETON HALL 19-10: Pirates came close to scoring a major scalp against projected 1 seed Connecticut but folded in the late stages. Unfortunately for them it is one they had to have given the lack of meat on their resume. Just 1 win vs the field over NC State 1-5 and note a loss to bubble USC There are 5 losses to non field schools and 2 Q3 losses . In a very down Big East, quality wins are hard to come by and the Pirates 0-5 vs the only 3 schools with a pulse. Q1 is awful at 2-4 and speaks to their poor sos numbers at 80/289. SOR/WAB at 52/55 say it all. They get one last crack vs St Johns and they will need that one along with their previous game at Xavier. Without a win vs the Johnnies, the Pirates have virtually no shot besides winning the Big East. With a win they still are out but may crack into the last 4 out line. Its very hard to say if the committee is once again looking at conference tourney performance but they did last year so perhaps a run to the BE finals could put them in play.

(84) OKLAHOMA STATE 17-12: Cowboys got hogtied by 28 by Cincinnati over the weekend and moved back to longshot status. Their metrics flat out stink with their overall NET at 84 and SOR/WAB falling behind at 57/56. Q1 just 1-8 with a home win over BYU. The Q2 mark is 7-3 and includes wins over Texas A&M, UCF and AAC AQ South Florida. That at least gets them in the discussion. 4-7 vs the field...5-7 adding Beth-Cookman. The problem is they are all at home and the 1-7 road mark just is another red flag to overcome. Still a big week of opportunity ahead. Road trip to UCF and home to Houston...win both and suddenly they are 10-11 in Q1/2 and 12-11 in Q1/2/3 and they may be in afterall. Seems like a very tall order.

(65) STANFORD 18-11: Cards stayed alive with a win over SMU but any discussion of them begins with the 3 Quad 3 losses. All at home to Notre Dame, Seattle and UNLV. Those losses and the fact they have 7 losses to non in the field schools including getting swept by bubble Cal negate what could have been a workable profile Stanford does have a 4-5 Q1 mark and 7-8 vs Q1/2. 4-4 vs the field with wins over St Louis on a neutral court and 3 home wins over North Carolina, Louisville and SMU. At 68/61 SOR/WAB its pretty obvious where they are headed even if they can knock off ND and NC State on the road to push them to 9-8 Q1/2 and 13-11 Q1/2/3.

(59) BOISE STATE 17-10: Broncs here at the bottom of the bubble but realistically may have no shot because of that horrific loss to D2 loss to Hawaii Pacific which is not counted for the NET but totally tanked their SOR at 76. . Its too bad given they actually have better wins than some others of their ilk. 2-6 vs Q1 win includes neutral site with over St Marys and at New Mexico. There is an additional win over New Mexico in Q2 where they are 4-3. 14-10 in Q1/2/3 isnt terrible but losing to UNLV in Q3 is. Keep an eye out for them in the always wacky MWC tourney as a potential disruptor
 
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Richie O

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Grab a cup of java and your favorite kringle and hop in.

31 AQs indictate by asterik *
37 at large bids. I am locking in schools all the way down to the Miami (Fla) on the 9 seed line.
That takes cares of 25 at larges leaving only 12 open and 24 schools competing for them

Didnt have time to proof read so help a brother out. Be kind!


YIKES..INFURIATING...WOULD NOT LET ME POST MORE THAN 10000 CHARACTERS IN A POST..NEVER HAD THIS PROBLEM BEFORE ON RIVALS...SCREW YOU ON3....


ONE SEEDS: Duke*, Michigan*, Arizona*, Connecticut*


TWO SEEDS: Florida*, Iowa State, Houston, Illinois

THREE SEEDS: Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, Kansas

FOUR SEEDS: Texas Tech, Virginia, Alabama, Gonzaga*

FIVE SEEDS: Arkansas, Saint John's, Vanderbilt, North Carolina

SIX SEEDS: Tennessee, BYU, Wisconsin, Kentucky

SEVEN SEEDS: Saint Mary's, Louisville, Utah State*, Saint Louis*

EIGHT SEEDS: Clemson, Villanova, Central Florida, Iowa

NINE SEEDS: Miami (Fla), North Carolina State, Missouri, Georgia
:
TEN SEEDS: Miami (Ohio)*, Texas, UCLA, SMU

ELEVEN SEEDS: Ohio State, Texas A&M, TCU/Santa Clara, New Mexico/Indiana

TWELVE SEEDS: South Florida*, Belmont*, Yale*, Liberty*

THIRTEEN SEEDS: Stephen F Austin*, Utah Valley State*, UNC Wilmington*, High Point*

FOURTEEN SEEDS: North Dakota State*, UC Irvine*, Navy*, Troy*

FIFTEEN SEEDS: Central Arkansas*, Portland State*, East Tennessee State*, Wright State*

SIXTEEN SEEDS: Merrimack*, Tennessee State*, UMBC*/Bethune Cookman*, Long Island*/Howard*



FIRST FOUR BYES: UCLA, SMU, OHIO STATE, TEXAS A&M

LAST 4 IN: INDIANA, SANTA CLARA, NEW MEXICO, TCU

FIRST 4 OUT: VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, CALIFORNIA, AUBURN, USC

NEXT 4 OUT: SAN DIEGO STATE
, VIRGINIA TECH, CINCINNATI, WEST VIRGINIA

ON DECK: SETON HALL, OKLAHOMA STATE, STANFORD, BOISE STATE


SEC: 10
Big 10: 10
Big 12: 8
ACC: 8
Big East: 3
WCC: 3
MWC" 2



Wouldnt let me post the whole thing, said it was more than 10000 characters so the rest will be below
Apologies for that, asking right now to see if we can update the character limit.
 

G- RUnit

All-American
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I don’t care who Auburn has beaten and Bruce Pearl not withstanding, they should not even be considered at 15-14.

Great job as always.

BTW…Think word limit is a good thing.
 
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bac2therac

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North Carolina State routed by Duke 93-64, will still linger on the 9 line for now but a loss to Stanford could make things a bit uncomfortable for them.
 

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
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Apologies for that, asking right now to see if we can update the character limit.
ah thanks, was going to shoot you an email, never had that happen before. maybe it was something to do with my copy and pasting not sure
 

Richie O

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ah thanks, was going to shoot you an email, never had that happen before. maybe it was something to do with my copy and pasting not sure
I believe it’s a universal thing around the network, for now I would say just do what you did here and post multiple replies in a row.
 
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bac2therac

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I believe it’s a universal thing around the network, for now I would say just do what you did here and post multiple replies in a row.
Thanks..its probably a safety to act as a blowhard security🤣
 

UofMbasketball

Redshirt
Mar 2, 2022
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Bac MSU has a WAB of 5, SOR of 7, and KPI (whatever that means) of 9. I don't think they would be 11th team anymore after the week they just had. With a better record than Illinois and H2H win, I feel like they would be a 2
 
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friar10

Junior
Jan 14, 2013
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Great job as always. You think Miami of Ohio gets in if they get upset in their tournament ? I usually root for the little guys but there schedule is ridiculous.
 
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G- RUnit

All-American
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Reward winning and an outstanding year.
No issue at all if they get in even with a loss.
Beauty of NCAA tournament.
 
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Erial_Lion

All-Conference
Nov 1, 2021
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Great job as always. You think Miami of Ohio gets in if they get upset in their tournament ? I usually root for the little guys but there schedule is ridiculous.
They are such a unicorn of a resume. My personal guess would be that they make it in but head to Dayton if they drop one of these last two and then lose to Akron in the MAC title game. And they avoid Dayton (as a 10ish or "high" 11 seed) and make it straight in if their only loss is in the MAC tournament.

Not sure if people realize it, but they'll be an underdog (I'd have it as about +2) if they meet Akron again, so them winning the MAC is far from a sure thing and there is a reasonable chance that we'll find out.
 

friar10

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Reward winning and an outstanding year.
No issue at all if they get in even with a loss.
Beauty of NCAA tournament.
Yeah like I say I root for the little guys but they have played one quad 2 game and 0 quad one. All quad 3&4.
 

bac2therac

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Bac MSU has a WAB of 5, SOR of 7, and KPI (whatever that means) of 9. I don't think they would be 11th team anymore after the week they just had. With a better record than Illinois and H2H win, I feel like they would be a 2
I agree with you. Sometimes we get stuck in our biases. I dont think I was giving enogh weight to the what Michigan State did this past week and yes those sor/wab speak volumes. I do scrub the whole field every couple of days. I expect Michigan State to be a 2 seed on my bracket later today. Beyond Fla?MSU, those 2/3 seed lines are pretty close. What do they do with the Toppin injury..does it matter since Texas Tech won anway over Iowa State without him. I will say a school like Houston is just 5-5 vs the field and Im becoming less impressed with them being a 2 seed. I think their resume is lacking some pop. Their best wins dont match up in stature or volume with the others. I am so impressed with what Florida has done of late. Hottest team in the country.

Wins vs field (indiana in/auburn out)

Duke 12-2
Michigan 12-2
Arizona 11-2
Michigan State 10-4
Florida 10-5
Purdue 10-7
Alabama 10-7
Kansas 9-6
Connecticut 8-2
Illinois 8-7
Vanderbilt 8-6
Virginia 7-2
Tennessee 7-8
Kentucky 7-10
Gonzaga 6-2
Nebraska 6-4
North Carolina 6-4
Iowa State 6-5
BYU 6-7
Wisconsin 6-7
Arkansas 6-8
Texas 6-8
Auburn 6-11 not even in field at 15-14!
Houston 5-5
Texas Tech 5-6


how does a 3-4 St Johns fit in..i want to seed them no higher than 6 however I fear they get a 2 because they are runner up in the big east and beat uconn...big east really has dropped way in stature..i mean even Nova did nothing special this year but are going to be a 7 or 8.
 
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bac2therac

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Great job as always. You think Miami of Ohio gets in if they get upset in their tournament ? I usually root for the little guys but there schedule is ridiculous.
If they finish the season unbeaten they are lock even if they do not win the MAC tourney. If they lose in the MAC tourney, I think the committee should put them as an 11 not in first four but probably puts them in the first 4 where they will at least have a home crowd so it might not be such a bad thing. If they lose 1 this week and then lose one in the tourney with 2 losses, that is when the controversy begins. Personally I think they should get but I could see the committee snubbing them for lack of Q1/2 wins and sos of 346/364, The 2nd worst non conference schedule in the country! Their current sor/wab is 21/32...so those are great numbers.

I think they could be seeded anywhere from 9 to 11 if they are undefeated. Personally I like the 9 because it sets up that 8-9 game and the potential an unbeaten Miami could play a 1 seed in the 2nd round.
 
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bac2therac

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Yeah like I say I root for the little guys but they have played one quad 2 game and 0 quad one. All quad 3&4.
doesnt matter...finshing a regular season undefeated is an accomplishment. Gonzaga lost a game to 226 Portland, Miami is no worse than an Indiana or Auburn
 
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bac2therac

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a look at tonight.....

Georgia who is already thisclose to a lock will become a lock with a win over Alabama

TCU would move from last 4 in area to solidly above the fray but not quite lock with a win over Texas Tech

VCU needs to beat George Mason to remain right at the cut line last team out/last team in

Oklahoma State must beat Central Florida to stay on the fringes of the bubble

Seton Hall must beat Xavier if they want to stay within range of the cut line

Texas A&M will move above the fray if they can beat Kentucky at home but not lock in just yet

West Virginia must win at Kansas State to keep their flickering hopes alive

Cincinnati can move into legitimate bubble space if they can beat BYU

San Diego State must beat Boise State if they want to hang near the last 6 out. Boise on life support will be removed from the bubble list with a loss

Virginia Tech ( a suddenly sexy pick for some bracketologists, not me) cannot lose to Boston College and live to tell about it

Auburn must beat LSU to move to 2 games above 500 and give them a chance to play their way back into the field. A loss and they will be 500 and removed entirely from contention.

UCLA can lock up a bid with a home win over Nebraska.

Miami Ohio can take one step forward to securiing a NCAA bid with a win tonight over Toledo putting them one win away from an unbeaten regular season
 

bac2therac

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Miami Ohio survives frantic finish 74-72 over Toledo and are just one win away from an undefeated regular season
 

bac2therac

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Georgia knocks off Alabama and now become a lock

Missouri falls at Oklahoma and Central Florida losing in OT to Oklahoma State will not put them on the bubble but may ding their seeding

Oklahoma State light is still flickering after the UCF win...IF IF IF a big IF they beat Houston at home this weekend, they have a legit shot.

Texas A&M can breath a bit easier after defeating Kentucky....not a lock though

ditto for TCU who scored a bigger win over Texas Tech...fortifying their bid but still vulnerable to first four games

Seton Hall took care of business at Xavier and now has a big matchup with St Johns

VCU gets the win over George Mason and could be slipping into my field tomorrow after some numbers crunching

West Virginia is about to go down to lowly Kansas State which will put a fork in their at large hopes.
 

G- RUnit

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UCLA beating Nebraska by 20 little surprising. Hurts their seeding?

TCU comfortably in.

Think the bubble is actually fairly strong this year with a resurgent ACC, deep SEC and all the Big 12 teams. Week Big East. It’s hard to say a down B1G when you have 18 teams but don’t think our strongest year.

CBS will want BYU and AJ Dybansta but wonder if they are in trouble.
Kansas will be in but don’t look all that good.
 
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bitnez

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Nebraska hasn’t beaten a team with a pulse since early January. I see them more as a 5 than a 3.
 

G- RUnit

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Nebraska hasn’t beaten a team with a pulse since early January. I see them more as a 5 than a 3.
I can’t be too harsh on Nebby. I think the drop off after the 1 and 2’s is significant as after MSU who has been playing all that well?

Purdue and Kansas have had a bit too many clunkers. Gonzaga loses to St. Mary’s. Bama loses to Georgia. Texas Tech while still playing tough, loses best player and loses to TCU. UVA blow out loss to Duke?

Think seeding is sometimes more fun than the actual bracketology.

Is it time for the WABologists to get their day in the sun?
 

bac2therac

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Georgia knocks off Alabama and now become a lock

Missouri falls at Oklahoma and Central Florida losing in OT to Oklahoma State will not put them on the bubble but may ding their seeding

Oklahoma State light is still flickering after the UCF win...IF IF IF a big IF they beat Houston at home this weekend, they have a legit shot.

Texas A&M can breath a bit easier after defeating Kentucky....not a lock though

ditto for TCU who scored a bigger win over Texas Tech...fortifying their bid but still vulnerable to first four games

Seton Hall took care of business at Xavier and now has a big matchup with St Johns

VCU gets the win over George Mason and could be slipping into my field tomorrow after some numbers crunching

West Virginia is about to go down to lowly Kansas State which will put a fork in their at large hopes.
recapping a wacky late night

UCLA puts on their dancin shoes with an emphatic win over Nebraska. Bruins could headed to the 9 seed line

Cincinnati clouts BYU. NET up to 45, Bearcats have now won 6 of 7 have 4 wins vs the field (at Kansas, Iowa State, UCF, BYU). Now 8-12 on Q1/2..can you make a resume in three weeks. I wish they didnt lose that Q4 game to Eastern Michigan because they would be right near the cut line. Instead the SOR/WAB lags at 57/58. Trip to TCU, if they can win that perhaps a deep Big 12 tourney run can do something for them. Also consider Oklahoma State also making a late push despite their overall net at 79. Cowboys lost to Cincy by 28 yet their numbers are better... SOR/WAB 54/52. 9-12 in Q1/2. 5 wins vs field (UCF 2x, BYU, Tex A&M, USF) and they have the bigger prize awaiting them hosting Houston this weekend

San Diego State loses at Boise State missing an opportunity to move back into a tie for first spot in the MWC. Down to 18-10 and now with SOR/WAB sinking to 66/56 is no bueno and they have 5 losses to schools not in the field. Boise State meanwhile remains a distant longshot even with the win with their SOR/WAB in the no go zone at 72/57

Very surprised to see a very mediocre UNLV wax MW AQ Utah State 92-65. The Aggies got swept by UNLV this year. New Mexico up next in a game that could decide the MW regular season title. I wouldnt say Utah State needs to worry about their at large hopes but their metrics are slipping...SOR/WAB at 41/35. Their seeding either way looks impacted right now. Probably down on the 8 line now but as an at large they could be a 10 or even an 11, if they bow out early in the MWC tourney.

Virginia Tech took care of business vs BC. SOR/WAB is just below the cut line. Next up is a trip to Virginia. A tall task but win that they vault into the field heading into championship week

Auburn knocked off LSU to move to 16-14. Still keeping them out of the field. Alabama up next on the road..win that and they probably put themselves back in even with the shaky overall record. Gets them to 10-14 in Q1/2/3They are 6-11 vs the field with a sos of 3. The SOR/WAB at 45/47 are exactly at the cut line of 46.

Going to throw one darkhorse into contention, Arizona State took down Kansas 70-60. Bobby Hurley's squad now 2 games above 500 at 16-14 so we need to give them consideration. SOR/WAB improving but still ugly at 64/59 but what happens if they win at Iowa State in the season finale. Currently Q1 4-10, Q1/2 8-13 and Q1/2/3 12-13. Its really too bad they had that Q4 loss to Oregon State as they would have been able to present a clean profile with their strong schedule strength of 20. 4-8 vs the field with wins over Texas Tech, Kansas, Texas and Santa Clara. Still having 6 losses to non NCAA schools is a bridge too far
 

bac2therac

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Nebraska hasn’t beaten a team with a pulse since early January. I see them more as a 5 than a 3.
Its body of work. 8-5 in Q1. They are 9-5 vs the field, the loss at UCLA was their "worst" of the season. All 5 of their losses are high tier Q1 losses. Their SOR/WAB are 7/9

Losses by other potential 3 seeds like Texas Tech and Kansas last night are far worse than Nebraskas loss last night.

The issue I have with them is their non conference sos of 310 is considerably worse than those around them. At worst they are the top 4 seed, could see the committee possibly moving Gonzaga to a 3. However the enormous loss of Toppin for Texas Tech also could impact their seeding and prevent them from being a 3. Virginia is the other possibility of a 3 over Nebraska, 7-2 vs field

they are likely last in the 11-14 range for seeding...last 2 3s/first 2 4s but no worse than that
 

bac2therac

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UCLA beating Nebraska by 20 little surprising. Hurts their seeding?

TCU comfortably in.

Think the bubble is actually fairly strong this year with a resurgent ACC, deep SEC and all the Big 12 teams. Week Big East. It’s hard to say a down B1G when you have 18 teams but don’t think our strongest year.

CBS will want BYU and AJ Dybansta but wonder if they are in trouble.
Kansas will be in but don’t look all that good.
its still a upper level Q1 loss to a ncaa tourney team. They are still a 3 for now.

TCU not quite in because they have a Q3 AND a Q4 loss and they are still very close to the first four games BUT I would be shocked if they get left out with the wins they have amassed . 4-6 vs field with wins over Florida, Iowa State. Texas Tech, and Wisconsin That was a signifcant win last night though....SOR/WAB 38/36. 10-8 vs Q1/2, 13-9 Q1/2/3 4-6 vs field, they needed that one because it was on the road.

the bubble is pretty weak..yet again this year. Trying to decide on bloated toads like Auburn/Indiana/Cal/Va Tech vs middling mid major with a lot of wins but not alot of quality wins like Santa Clara/VCU/New Mexico

BYU is in trouble not only because they lost their point guard Saunders and have struggled since going 1-4 despite somehow beating Iowa State but they have also lost 8 of 11. While they are 6-7 vs the field and its body of work puts them good enough for a 6 at worst a 7, they know have to contend with the committee dinging them for the Saunders injury and then possibly moving them down a seed line to fit into the their no sunday games rule.

SOR/WAB at 31/24 with a NET of 25. Texas Tech injured themselves is up next. While they have the resume good enough to be a 6, I would drop them to a 7 and 8 is still a possibilty.
 
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bac2therac

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I can’t be too harsh on Nebby. I think the drop off after the 1 and 2’s is significant as after MSU who has been playing all that well?

Purdue and Kansas have had a bit too many clunkers. Gonzaga loses to St. Mary’s. Bama loses to Georgia. Texas Tech while still playing tough, loses best player and loses to TCU. UVA blow out loss to Duke?

Think seeding is sometimes more fun than the actual bracketology.

Is it time for the WABologists to get their day in the sun?
yeah I hate that the WAB is getting so much play. We truly do not know just how much they are weighing it really. It makes my job harder. Some seem to be weighing it almost exclusively.
 
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G- RUnit

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yeah I hate that the WAB is getting so much play. We truly do not know just how much they are weighing it really. It makes my job harder. Some seem to be weighing it almost exclusively.
It is weird moving the goal posts. The NET was supposed to solve everything.

WAB appears to be another stat that the committee can now chose to emphasize or ignore. Like “entire body of work” or “eye test.” Who knows what goes on?

Texas Tech and BYU had very good years but hurt immensely by injuries. Don’t know how committe will deal with that. They are probably secretly wishing BYU totally collapses.
 
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bac2therac

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Update

ONE SEEDS: Duke*, Michigan*, Arizona*, Connecticut*

TWO SEEDS: Florida*, Michigan State, Houston, Illinois

THREE SEEDS: Iowa State, Purdue, Nebraska, Kansas

FOUR SEEDS: Virginia, Texas Tech, Gonzaga*, Alabama

FIVE SEEDS: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, North Carolina, Saint John's

SIX SEEDS: Tennessee, Wisconsin, Louisville, Saint Mary's

SEVEN SEEDS: Kentucky, BYU, Saint Louis*, Utah State*

EIGHT SEEDS: Villanova, Miami (Fla), Georgia, UCLA

NINE SEEDS: Iowa, Clemson, Central Florida, Missouri

TEN SEEDS: North Carolina State, Miami (Ohio)*, Texas, TCU

ELEVEN SEEDS: Ohio State, Texas A&M, SMU/New Mexico, Santa Clara/VCU

TWELVE SEEDS: South Florida*, Belmont*, Yale*, Liberty*

THIRTEEN SEEDS: Stephen F Austin*, Utah Valley State*, UNC Wilmington*, High Point*

FOURTEEN SEEDS: North Dakota State*, UC Irvine*, Navy*, Troy*

FIFTEEN SEEDS: Central Arkansas*, Portland State*, East Tennessee State*, Wright State*

SIXTEEN SEEDS: Merrimack*, Tennessee State*, UMBC*/Bethune Cookman*, Long Island*/Howard*



FIRST FOUR BYES: TEXAS, TCU, OHIO STATE, TEXAS A&M

LAST 4 IN: VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, SANTA CLARA, NEW MEXICO, SMU

FIRST 4 OUT: INDIANA, CALIFORNIA, AUBURN, VIRGINIA TECH

NEXT 4 OUT: USC
, OKLAHOMA STATE, CINCINNATI, SETON HALL

ON DECK: SAN DIEGO STATE, ARIZONA STATE, STANFORD, BOISE STATE


moving VCU into the field for now by a hair over Indiana. I do not think think the committee will flood the zone with 3 high mid majors in the first 4 but this where we are now. Indiana could move back into the field tonight with a win over Minnesota which would be a desperately neede Q2 win.

After last nights action and further numbers crunch, SMU has slid all the way down into the last 4 in grouping. Just 3 wins vs the field: Louisville, Clemson and neutral site Texas A&M. A wobbly 7-10 in Q1/2. No road win of the note. SOR/WAB now down to 44 each. The movement around them is showing them to be somewhat of a fraud. Huge game tonight they really need vs Miami. It will not lock them in but it will keep them breathing a bit easier going forward.

Interesting to note: New Mexico has beaten both fellow last 4 in schools Santa Clara by 27 and winning at VCU
 
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bac2therac

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It is weird moving the goal posts. The NET was supposed to solve everything.

WAB appears to be another stat that the committee can now chose to emphasize or ignore. Like “entire body of work” or “eye test.” Who knows what goes on?

Texas Tech and BYU had very good years but hurt immensely by injuries. Don’t know how committe will deal with that. They are probably secretly wishing BYU totally collapses.
agree they will always justify one selection by pointing to one criteria while totally ignoring it when it comes to another

vcu has beaten no one..they dont belong in the field but their sor/wab says otherwise
 
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G- RUnit

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agree they will always justify one selection by pointing to one criteria while totally ignoring it when it comes to another

vcu has beaten no one..they dont belong in the field but their sor/wab says otherwise

And over the years they have loved the A10.
 

Erial_Lion

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Bac - thoughts on if New Mexico winning that head to head game against Utah St on Saturday is enough for them to lock up a bid (assuming they take care of business against Colorado St tonight)? Winning the 6th overall conference outright seems like it would be enough with a solid non-conf performance (clunker against New Mexico St, but a few solid wins), though most have them right near the cut-line today.
 

T2Kplus20

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Grab a cup of java and your favorite kringle and hop in.

31 AQs indictate by asterik *
37 at large bids. I am locking in schools all the way down to the Miami (Fla) on the 9 seed line.
That takes cares of 25 at larges leaving only 12 open and 24 schools competing for them

Didnt have time to proof read so help a brother out. Be kind!


YIKES..INFURIATING...WOULD NOT LET ME POST MORE THAN 10000 CHARACTERS IN A POST..NEVER HAD THIS PROBLEM BEFORE ON RIVALS...SCREW YOU ON3....


ONE SEEDS: Duke*, Michigan*, Arizona*, Connecticut*


TWO SEEDS: Florida*, Iowa State, Houston, Illinois

THREE SEEDS: Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, Kansas

FOUR SEEDS: Texas Tech, Virginia, Alabama, Gonzaga*

FIVE SEEDS: Arkansas, Saint John's, Vanderbilt, North Carolina

SIX SEEDS: Tennessee, BYU, Wisconsin, Kentucky

SEVEN SEEDS: Saint Mary's, Louisville, Utah State*, Saint Louis*

EIGHT SEEDS: Clemson, Villanova, Central Florida, Iowa

NINE SEEDS: Miami (Fla), North Carolina State, Missouri, Georgia
:
TEN SEEDS: Miami (Ohio)*, Texas, UCLA, SMU

ELEVEN SEEDS: Ohio State, Texas A&M, TCU/Santa Clara, New Mexico/Indiana

TWELVE SEEDS: South Florida*, Belmont*, Yale*, Liberty*

THIRTEEN SEEDS: Stephen F Austin*, Utah Valley State*, UNC Wilmington*, High Point*

FOURTEEN SEEDS: North Dakota State*, UC Irvine*, Navy*, Troy*

FIFTEEN SEEDS: Central Arkansas*, Portland State*, East Tennessee State*, Wright State*

SIXTEEN SEEDS: Merrimack*, Tennessee State*, UMBC*/Bethune Cookman*, Long Island*/Howard*



FIRST FOUR BYES: UCLA, SMU, OHIO STATE, TEXAS A&M

LAST 4 IN: INDIANA, SANTA CLARA, NEW MEXICO, TCU

FIRST 4 OUT: VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, CALIFORNIA, AUBURN, USC

NEXT 4 OUT: SAN DIEGO STATE
, VIRGINIA TECH, CINCINNATI, WEST VIRGINIA

ON DECK: SETON HALL, OKLAHOMA STATE, STANFORD, BOISE STATE


SEC: 10
Big 10: 10
Big 12: 8
ACC: 8
Big East: 3
WCC: 3
MWC" 2



Wouldnt let me post the whole thing, said it was more than 10000 characters so the rest will be below
You are the best in the business! And yes, ON3's character limit blows.
 
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