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Over the next few weeks, keep your eyes on the Middle East

ChucktownK

ChucktownK

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The number of missiles, UAVs and other larger aircraft in the air, some of these are going to happen. I didn't get called back to Base this weekend but its a f-ton of missiles flying in all directions in salvos. I'll be looking at this data for awhile. I can't say if the F-15s were squawking or were in the wrong corridor at the wrong time or not.

US forces are focused on missile production, launchers and UGFs. Plug the holes they shoot out of and take out the launch facilities and TELs. They have tons of missiles, but you take out the launchers and those are worthless. Military targets. The Israelis are the ones taking out the leadership, and seem to be pretty damn efficient doing it.

The servicemen killed were due to one-way UAV attacks and missiles at our partner bases in the region. Edit: Kuwait I think, and Army.

Iran is currently shooting in just about all directions. Cyprus radar facility, Israel, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, KSA, Oman, Bahrain, everyone. Doubt they F with Turkey because the Turks could declare Article V and bring Europe into it.
 
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Buzzards Roost

Buzzards Roost

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Dec 1, 2002
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PawsFan said:
KC-135 and C-5 and E-3 laugh at this. :^)
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I stand corrected. My excuse could be that I meant direct combat aircraft but I cannot tell a lie, I was just wrong. KC 135 is a derivative of the 1950s Boeing 707 and yes it is almost but not quite as old as I am.

I flew in a C5 when I was in the Navy back in 1985 and they were for sure old then. Thanks for the top bubble ride, AF. 1970 delivery. I saw the Russian copy in Norway in the 1990s.

The E 3 entered AF service in 1977, after the F-15. But the Navy carrier version, E-2 , is indeed much older than the F-15. I have heard the AF is transitioning from E-3 to E-2s but don’t know why except maybe because the E2’s are still being manufactured.

Thanks
 
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P. Marlowe

P. Marlowe

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Dec 7, 2009
13,995
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SlipDrip said:
Oil stocks ripping today. I might not be pro war like you but man it feels good this morning. Praise to all the war hawks.
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Yeah. My TRGP, ET, EOG, and XOM are up like 1.5-2.5%. Not sure I qualify that as ripping. Congrats, I guess. My ATI, LMT, and GD are basically doing the same thing. My PLTR and RTX? They’re ripping. I’ll be sure to thank a warhawk…if I can find one.
 
nmerritt11

nmerritt11

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GDead_Tiger said:
I don’t think there is actual polling or source data to show a *majority* are fans of the United States. I don’t care one way or the other. I think it’s an illegal war that will only make the region less stable and safe. It will only lead to innocents killed
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Can we all just admit if this regime gets abolished it is a good thing for the world? And that no Congress approval was necessary? And that it has happened under multiple POTUS
 
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SlipDrip

SlipDrip

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P. Marlowe said:
Yeah. My TRGP, ET, EOG, and XOM are up like 1.5-2.5%. Not sure I qualify that as ripping. Congrats, I guess. My ATI, LMT, and GD are basically doing the same thing. My PLTR and RTX? They’re ripping. I’ll be sure to thank a warhawk…if I can find one.
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You should be sitting around +25% for the year then. I’m more of a OXY guy myself. Why I always love a socialist in office. Easy to make money on their policies.
 
GDead_Tiger

GDead_Tiger

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Dec 7, 2021
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nmerritt11 said:



Can we all just admit if this regime gets abolished it is a good thing for the world? And that no Congress approval was necessary? And that it has happened under multiple POTUS
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Obama was using the 2001 AUMF, which should have been abolished and was used way too much/too broadly.

Also with Libya specifically https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_military_intervention_in_Libya#United_States_Congress

I don't think this regime is getting abolished and if it does what replaces it will likely be worse. For there to be actual regime change there need to be boots on the ground.
 
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tboonpickens

tboonpickens

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Sep 19, 2001
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nmerritt11 said:
Can we all just admit if this regime gets abolished it is a good thing for the world?
Click to expand...
Everyone in the world would rejoice if Iran suddenly didn't have a murderous Dark Ages theocracy, but you can't gloss over the fact that this administration has been giving out "mixed signals" (being very kind here) with regard to this operation, beginning with Trump himself campaigning on no new wars or efforts at regime change as world police.

I assume you know that Matt Walsh is a major MAGA voice, so I would ask if you disagree with anything he says here. These are the concerns a lot of people on both sides of the aisle currently have.



If the end result of all of this action is that Iran somehow has a more sane leadership apparatus, then everyone will be happy in the long run, but that doesn't seem to be what is currently happening. Their army is not splintering as Trump suggested they might do, and their civilian population doesn't have the means to simply rise up and overthrow what's left of the regime.

I would encourage you to watch this clip where Brennan and Hertling discuss our currrent prospects. They're not exactly woke libtards.

To @GDead_Tiger point, Hertling echoes Brennan's sentiments by saying, "External airstrikes rarely produce democratic change...and those external strikes that don't produce democratic change usually strengthen the hardliners who argue the nation is under siege, and that fits right in with culture of Iran."

 
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ChicagoTiger85

ChicagoTiger85

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tboonpickens said:
There seems to be a prevailing thought process among people who have interacted within that region militarily and in the intelligence sector that Iran's ruling class will roll on, with a younger, possibly more hardline face at the forefront now. We succeeded in taking out an 86 year old piece of **** who had cancer, so we probably beat mother nature by a couple months.

Now that it seems pretty clear there was no imminent threat from Iran, especially after we had been told their nuclear apparatus was decimated months ago, the fact that we apparently were counting on Iranians who don't have weaponry needed to really rise up and install democracy on their own without further aid makes it seem like we have no legitimate endgame. Meanwhile Iran has decided after our initial attacks last year that they are going to be more aggressive in attacking a number of countries in that region and see how committed we are to burning through capital including human casualties without engaging in behavior that will result in true regime change.

There is a lot to question about this move, which is why you're seeing right wingers like MTG and Matt Walsh speak out. Nobody wants Iran to have nukes, but that again begs the question of how were they supposedly weeks away after we decimated their program mere months ago...
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"Right wingers like MTG and Matt Walsh" are speaking out because they are ideological, and thus not as 'agile' in their thinking as the Trump admin. MTG is ideologically a nut case, and it's not shocking she'd think something Israel was involved in was bad. Matt Walsh is somebody who I think jumped on the isolationist bandwagon as a version of "America First," and is blind-sided by this. But both of these people are people who were just trying to catch onto waves to make a brand, and are now shocked that the tide has shifted. They're not indicators of principles resistance like, say, John Thune would be.
 
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ChicagoTiger85

ChicagoTiger85

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DirtyMyrtleSC said:
Somewhat adjacent question for those of you much more in tune with things - Daugther and wife are supposed to head to DC for big 8th grade fielf trip tomorrow through Friday. How concerned should I be? Assume another lone wolf type incident is the greatest risk.

Thanks.
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My office is right by the Capitol. People are being a little more vigilant, and I suppose anything could happen. But it's business as usual, otherwise. I will probably go to the big St. Paddy's parade on Saturday in Alexandria.

Again, it's not like these people haven't been gunning for us before. We did just bomb them pretty recently.
 
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GDead_Tiger

GDead_Tiger

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DirtyMyrtleSC said:
Somewhat adjacent question for those of you much more in tune with things - Daugther and wife are supposed to head to DC for big 8th grade fielf trip tomorrow through Friday. How concerned should I be? Assume another lone wolf type incident is the greatest risk.

Thanks.
Click to expand...
Negative concern. Wouldn't even cross my mind
 
GDead_Tiger

GDead_Tiger

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tboonpickens said:
Everyone in the world would rejoice if Iran suddenly didn't have a murderous Dark Ages theocracy, but you can't gloss over the fact that this administration has been giving out "mixed signals" (being very kind here) with regard to this operation, beginning with Trump himself campaigning on no new wars or efforts at regime change as world police.

I assume you know that Matt Walsh is a major MAGA voice, so I would ask if you disagree with anything he says here. These are the concerns a lot of people on both sides of the aisle currently have.



If the end result of all of this action is that Iran somehow has a more sane leadership apparatus, then everyone will be happy in the long run, but that doesn't seem to be what is currently happening. Their army is not splintering as Trump suggested they might do, and their civilian population doesn't have the means to simply rise up and overthrow what's left of the regime.

I would encourage you to watch this clip where Brennan and Hertling discuss our currrent prospects. They're not exactly woke libtards.

To @GDead_Tiger point, Hertling echoes Brennan's sentiments by saying, "External airstrikes rarely produce democratic change...and those external strikes that don't produce democratic change usually strengthen the hardliners who argue the nation is under siege, and that fits right in with culture of Iran."

Click to expand...

A bit dated but this is the gold standard on air power campaigns (I need to read it)

www.cornellpress.cornell.edu

Bombing to Win by Robert A. Pape | Hardcover | Cornell University Press

In this now-classic work of the theory and practice of airpower and its political effects, Robert A. Pape helps military strategists and policy makers judge the purpose of various air strategies, and helps general readers understand the policy debates.
www.cornellpress.cornell.edu www.cornellpress.cornell.edu
 
tboonpickens

tboonpickens

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ChicagoTiger85 said:
"Right wingers like MTG and Matt Walsh" are speaking out because they are ideological, and thus not as 'agile' in their thinking as the Trump admin. MTG is ideologically a nut case, and it's not shocking she'd think something Israel was involved in was bad. Matt Walsh is somebody who I think jumped on the isolationist bandwagon as a version of "America First," and is blind-sided by this. But both of these people are people who were just trying to catch onto waves to make a brand, and are now shocked that the tide has shifted. They're not indicators of principles resistance like, say, John Thune would be.
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Do you think they don't have a point when they mention as many others have that Trump explicitly campaigned on the notion of no new wars and now we have 3 servicemen dead in the first weekend of this operation? We lost 4 people at Benghazi and you know the resulting fallout from that debacle. Will people care about these 3 servicemen the same way?

I'm no fan of Walsh obv, but do you disagree with any portion of what he's saying here?

 
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GDead_Tiger

GDead_Tiger

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tboonpickens said:
Do you think they don't have a point when they mention as many others have that Trump explicitly campaigned on the notion of no new wars and now we have 3 servicemen dead in the first weekend of this operation? We lost 4 people at Benghazi and you know the resulting fallout from that debacle. Will people care about these 3 servicemen the same way?

I'm no fan of Walsh obv, but do you disagree with any portion of what he's saying here?
Click to expand...
No new wars just meant abandoning Ukraine and doing a Gender about Kamala.
 
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GDead_Tiger

GDead_Tiger

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The Saudis are complaining that we are protecting the Israelis way more than them, lol get rekt
 
ChicagoTiger85

ChicagoTiger85

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tboonpickens said:
Do you think they don't have a point when they mention as many others have that Trump explicitly campaigned on the notion of no new wars and now we have 3 servicemen dead in the first weekend of this operation? We lost 4 people at Benghazi and you know the resulting fallout from that debacle. Will people care about these 3 servicemen the same way?

I'm no fan of Walsh obv, but do you disagree with any portion of what he's saying here?

Click to expand...
I think they do have a point, but I also think people like MTG deserve to be disappointed in their foolishness. Unfortunately, these are just not the most credible messengers for the idea that there ought to be principled, ideological consistency involved here. I do want Congress to speak up for its prerogatives, though, and I also think the president acting unilaterally without making any kind of case publicly is a bad idea.
 
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DividedPi

DividedPi

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nmerritt11 said:



Can we all just admit if this regime gets abolished it is a good thing for the world? And that no Congress approval was necessary? And that it has happened under multiple POTUS
Click to expand...

I agree if the regime gets abolished it will be good for the world but we don't seems to have any plan or means to do that. New leaders from the same theocratic/IRGC group isn't abolishing a regime. It's not like the ruling class in Iran didn't have a plan for this. He was about to die anyway.

I didn't think it was OK when Obama did it either. I think congress has allowed their powers to be steadily eroded for decades now and it's not a left or right thing. Presidents from both parties have pushed the limits of expanding executive power and congressional leadership from both parties have stood by and watched it happen or even encouraged it.
 
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GDead_Tiger

GDead_Tiger

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DividedPi said:
I agree if the regime gets abolished it will be good for the world but we don't seems to have any plan or means to do that. New leaders from the same theocratic/IRGC group isn't abolishing a regime. It's not like the ruling class in Iran didn't have a plan for this. He was about to die anyway.

I didn't think it was OK when Obama did it either. I think congress has allowed their powers to be steadily eroded for decades now and it's not a left or right thing. Presidents from both parties have pushed the limits of expanding executive power and congressional leadership from both parties have stood by and watched it happen or even encouraged it.
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Congress declining in importance during the back half of the 20th and into the 21st century is one of the worst things to happen to America imo
 
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tboonpickens

tboonpickens

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Trump is as mercurial as they come, but the fact that he said this out loud is notable.

 
BigPapaWhit

BigPapaWhit

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Buzzards Roost said:
I stand corrected. My excuse could be that I meant direct combat aircraft but I cannot tell a lie, I was just wrong. KC 135 is a derivative of the 1950s Boeing 707 and yes it is almost but not quite as old as I am.

I flew in a C5 when I was in the Navy back in 1985 and they were for sure old then. Thanks for the top bubble ride, AF. 1970 delivery. I saw the Russian copy in Norway in the 1990s.

The E 3 entered AF service in 1977, after the F-15. But the Navy carrier version, E-2 , is indeed much older than the F-15. I have heard the AF is transitioning from E-3 to E-2s but don’t know why except maybe because the E2’s are still being manufactured.

Thanks
Click to expand...
Might be some Warthogs still around. They keep surviving those weapon purges.
 
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leetp

leetp

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DirtyMyrtleSC said:
Somewhat adjacent question for those of you much more in tune with things - Daugther and wife are supposed to head to DC for big 8th grade fielf trip tomorrow through Friday. How concerned should I be? Assume another lone wolf type incident is the greatest risk.

Thanks.
Click to expand...
Only slightly elevated over normal risk, IMO. And you are probably in just as much danger anywhere. At least DC still has NG deployed.
 
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P. Marlowe

P. Marlowe

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DirtyMyrtleSC said:
Somewhat adjacent question for those of you much more in tune with things - Daugther and wife are supposed to head to DC for big 8th grade fielf trip tomorrow through Friday. How concerned should I be? Assume another lone wolf type incident is the greatest risk.

Thanks.
Click to expand...

In DC? Probably not very. If someone wants to hit a soft target, they can. That said, DC is not a target where you can just throw an op together in a few days without tons of resources. Plus, FBI and CIA CS teams have been put on their highest alert footing. That means surveillance of key targets is stepped up significantly. ELINT and SIGINT collection efforts are stepped up. Agent/source use is stepped up. Always be vigilant, but I would not worry much more than normal.
 
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M

Marcellus Wallace

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GDead_Tiger said:
It’s absolutely an illegal war. Please what did Biden do that is similar. Fetterman is a dipshit, can’t wait till he’s gone. This is also a pointless war. We don’t have a plan beyond bombing stuff for content. While this is going on our alcoholic philandering SecDef is trying (and failing) to kick girls and trans kids out of the org formerly known as the Boy Scouts and shutting down soldiers studying at our best universities. Glad he has his priorities straight
nmerritt11 said:
staying away from political...but Yemen happened with no congressional approval and it was NOT illegal...There were a couple under Obama as well that were NOT illegal. Syria comes to mind.

People need to learn what falls under illegal war and what needs congressional approval. The POTUS has the authority to authorize strategic military actions. How is this so hard for people to understand?
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its only illegal when their party of choice is not in charge. It’s a sad example of the lack of adults with common sense left in this country.
Click to expand...
 
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tboonpickens

tboonpickens

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Interesting comments from an expert who says (apart from dropping nukes obv) that air strikes have never resulted in actual regime change and we’re basically in a kind of escalation trap now.

 
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GDead_Tiger

GDead_Tiger

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tboonpickens said:
Interesting comments from an expert who says (apart from dropping nukes obv) that air strikes have never resulted in actual regime change and we’re basically in a kind of escalation trap now.

Click to expand...

He quite literally wrote the book on it
 
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