Over the next few weeks, keep your eyes on the Middle East

vatiger1

Heisman
May 22, 2003
24,861
34,662
113
Russia lost an important ally in Iran. And I'm not sure Russia has enough supply for Chinese demand.

And yeah, I'm with you on the Russian sentiment.
I think you are correct. Russia cant afford much more in giving resources to help their cause. Didn't Ukraine hit deep in Russia this week and destroy a big refinery?
 
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DividedPi

All-Conference
Nov 23, 2016
1,185
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“Let’s not make the terrorists who have killed hundreds of Americans over the years mad. They might commit more acts of terror.”

She has always been a useless idiot.
The reality is we are likely going to see a terrorist attack fallout from this over the next couple years. Americans will die because of what we are doing right now in Iran. Several already have. We know it only takes a few (one?) motivated terrorists to completely change aspects of our society in the US or anywhere else in the west. We've seen it many times now at different scales. We have unquestionably motivated thousands and thousands who would like to avenge the death of their theocratic leader.

The question is what are we hoping to realistically accomplish here that makes it all worth it? What's the end game? Why now?
 

grazhoppa

Heisman
Apr 30, 2008
5,715
14,085
93
The reality is we are likely going to see a terrorist attack fallout from this over the next couple years. Americans will die because of what we are doing right now in Iran. Several already have. We know it only takes a few (one?) motivated terrorists to completely change aspects of our society in the US or anywhere else in the west. We've seen it many times now at different scales. We have unquestionably motivated thousands and thousands who would like to avenge the death of their theocratic leader.

The question is what are we hoping to realistically accomplish here that makes it all worth it? What's the end game? Why now?
There was always going to be fallout from dealing with the Iranians. There would be with Russia and china (for those who think we should be focused on one of them). The Khameinei’s regime deserves to be obliterated for its role in October 7. They cannot be allowed to obtain nukes. They are doing nothing but destabilizing the region on their own and prop up other bad actors. The rest of NATO should be helping us.

“Why now?” is a good question. We should have decapitated them last summer. Maybe we did not see the opportunities that we see now? Maybe we observed their movements/reinforcements in the wake of last summer’s strikes?
 

Rowdon7

All-Conference
Sep 18, 2006
1,507
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The way Iran has retaliated shows their desperation. Some say they made a succession plan after last summer, if so the plan is simply anger and retaliation at this point. As many of yall have said, the Sunni states (most of Islam in the world) were already on thin ice with Iran. Now that they are straight up attacking non-military targets in the gulf… during Ramadan … they risk all of those states not only retaliating but allowing us and others to do so. Most of the countries house our bases but the agreement was we wouldn’t attack from them. That is gonna change quickly with this junk.

@RaleighTiger OG (how you holding up btw??), is it true that Abu Dhabi told all the hotels to let their patrons stay and eat for free and the state would reimburse the hotels? There’s a statement in itself.

Looks like I picked the wrong year for a weekend in Dubai. Took the wifey and stayed at the Sofitel for a few nights Jan 2025. Not too far from the Palm.

For real though, just had a nurse leave our town and fly through Dubai the day before this went down. Then my teammate’s mom is coming to visit this week and was to fly through Doha. Talk about how timing changes things.
 

PawsFan

Heisman
Dec 17, 2019
14,781
42,185
113
There are alot of people losing focus on the closest alligator to the boat. An influx of income could energize the bear to go romping through Europe. That's not what we want....... That’s the gateway to the Western World. Just a lack of focus on that front in general.
If Russia can't romp through Ukraine, they ain't romping through Europe. Their military is crap.
 

PawsFan

Heisman
Dec 17, 2019
14,781
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The fact we and the Israelis are targeting known opposition leaders just shows we aren’t interested in a stable Iran. We’d rather have a failed state we can bomb every 6 months
We and the Israeli's aren't targeting opposition leaders. US bombs are focused on military targets only.
 

cctiger94

All-Conference
Sep 16, 2007
4,516
4,723
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Oh so you think all criticisms of Israel are criticisms of Jews. What about all the anti Zionist Jews outside of Israel or how the Israeli government treats Orthodox Jews
Then tell us, what kind of Jew are you now that you are preaching labels on folks. I got a ton of Jewish friends. None of them talk this angle which makes me think a lot differently about you. You sound like you need a desert, rocks and a missile to be happy.

I'm Episcopalian, man you should have seen that last round of mortar fire from the Methodists sects over off Prune St. They done bombed the Duke power substation over by the old armory in Clemson. I have to fend off my perimeter daily from those pesky Pendleton Presbyterian hit squads on Jeeps. Then the Central Baptists come down and blank everyone out with hellfire and brimstone.
 

ChicagoTiger85

Hall of Famer
Dec 6, 2004
89,374
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There was always going to be fallout from dealing with the Iranians. There would be with Russia and china (for those who think we should be focused on one of them). The Khameinei’s regime deserves to be obliterated for its role in October 7. They cannot be allowed to obtain nukes. They are doing nothing but destabilizing the region on their own and prop up other bad actors. The rest of NATO should be helping us.

“Why now?” is a good question. We should have decapitated them last summer. Maybe we did not see the opportunities that we see now? Maybe we observed their movements/reinforcements in the wake of last summer’s strikes?
One reason why presidents should get the consent of Congress for this type of thing is to answer just these types of questions. The major trigger seems to have been their draconian, brutal reaction to protests. But there’s been almost no public case made, and in fact this admin’s rhetoric has ostensibly been opposed to the kinds of people who’ve argued we should consider attacking Iran.
 

ChicagoTiger85

Hall of Famer
Dec 6, 2004
89,374
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The reality is we are likely going to see a terrorist attack fallout from this over the next couple years. Americans will die because of what we are doing right now in Iran. Several already have. We know it only takes a few (one?) motivated terrorists to completely change aspects of our society in the US or anywhere else in the west. We've seen it many times now at different scales. We have unquestionably motivated thousands and thousands who would like to avenge the death of their theocratic leader.

The question is what are we hoping to realistically accomplish here that makes it all worth it? What's the end game? Why now?
Are we not acknowledging that Iran is already and has always been one of the biggest state sponsors of terror, many times against the US, ever since their revolution? They may try to step it up, but it’s not like they’ve been on good terms with us. This is why various people have called for taking on Iran in some way, and have often taken a lot of heat for it.

Having their regime decapitated and their people who’ve coordinated international terrorism tied up may actually decrease these threats.
 
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DividedPi

All-Conference
Nov 23, 2016
1,185
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Having their regime decapitated and their people who’ve coordinated international terrorism tied up may actually decrease these threats.
We'll never really know what could have been achieved by other means so it's impossible to say what has been prevented or not. This continues to feel poorly thought out beyond an initial round of strikes, but we'll see. Iran is nothing like Venezuela though. It's not going to be as simple as killing the currently named leaders I don't think.
 
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P. Marlowe

Heisman
Dec 7, 2009
13,995
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Larijani - through Omani intermediaries - asking to resume nuclear talks…

Edit:

Well…

 
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RaleighTiger OG

Heisman
Nov 13, 2001
14,634
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The way Iran has retaliated shows their desperation. Some say they made a succession plan after last summer, if so the plan is simply anger and retaliation at this point. As many of yall have said, the Sunni states (most of Islam in the world) were already on thin ice with Iran. Now that they are straight up attacking non-military targets in the gulf… during Ramadan … they risk all of those states not only retaliating but allowing us and others to do so. Most of the countries house our bases but the agreement was we wouldn’t attack from them. That is gonna change quickly with this junk.

@RaleighTiger OG (how you holding up btw??), is it true that Abu Dhabi told all the hotels to let their patrons stay and eat for free and the state would reimburse the hotels? There’s a statement in itself.

Looks like I picked the wrong year for a weekend in Dubai. Took the wifey and stayed at the Sofitel for a few nights Jan 2025. Not too far from the Palm.

For real though, just had a nurse leave our town and fly through Dubai the day before this went down. Then my teammate’s mom is coming to visit this week and was to fly through Doha. Talk about how timing changes things.

Thank you for checking on me. Didn't get much sleep last couple of nights. As I posted earlier, I spent the night on the Palm with my friends on the outer ring two nights ago and we heard the explosion that hit the trunk. We ran to the window and I took the picture below (same as posted earlier). I'm sure everyone's seen video by now of it.

I left the Palm yesterday morning and drove right by the place - not as much damage as I would have thought. Headed back to Abu Dhabi yesterday morning and took the second picture just south of Dubai in an area called Jebel Ali. I am back in AD now and you can here the occasional explosion. I am not far from Al Dhafra Airforce Base, so it should be an interesting day. The nuclear plant is safe and I am working from home the rest of the week as is everyone across the country deemed non essential.

In a surreal scene from my night on the Palm, my buddy who is ex Navy and I were on his balcony listening to the explosions, getting hammered, and cranking Toby Keith putting a boot in the arse. God Bless the USA and our troops.

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1000041169.jpg

1000041170.jpg
 

BigPapaWhit

All-American
Jun 15, 2014
3,303
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tboonpickens

Heisman
Sep 19, 2001
19,859
35,125
113
Are we not acknowledging that Iran is already and has always been one of the biggest state sponsors of terror, many times against the US, ever since their revolution? They may try to step it up, but it’s not like they’ve been on good terms with us. This is why various people have called for taking on Iran in some way, and have often taken a lot of heat for it.

Having their regime decapitated and their people who’ve coordinated international terrorism tied up may actually decrease these threats.
There seems to be a prevailing thought process among people who have interacted within that region militarily and in the intelligence sector that Iran's ruling class will roll on, with a younger, possibly more hardline face at the forefront now. We succeeded in taking out an 86 year old piece of **** who had cancer, so we probably beat mother nature by a couple months.

Now that it seems pretty clear there was no imminent threat from Iran, especially after we had been told their nuclear apparatus was decimated months ago, the fact that we apparently were counting on Iranians who don't have weaponry needed to really rise up and install democracy on their own without further aid makes it seem like we have no legitimate endgame. Meanwhile Iran has decided after our initial attacks last year that they are going to be more aggressive in attacking a number of countries in that region and see how committed we are to burning through capital including human casualties without engaging in behavior that will result in true regime change.

There is a lot to question about this move, which is why you're seeing right wingers like MTG and Matt Walsh speak out. Nobody wants Iran to have nukes, but that again begs the question of how were they supposedly weeks away after we decimated their program mere months ago...
 

HunterPKP

Heisman
Nov 11, 2004
139,264
42,029
98
Seeing a lot more of this in the modern drone and cruise missile era. SAM operators these days have itchy trigger fingers.

Here's the rub and why the investigation of this matters a ton. The radar operators for those big Raytheon radars know the difference between a F15 and a drone or a cruise missile. Completely different signatures. I know this because my brother operated PAT systems for many years and was Brigade Commander of the 69th ADA. 1 is accidental. A cluster of 3 all at once is a bit suspect and should invoke very serious investigation.
 

DirtyMyrtleSC

Freshman
Mar 19, 2018
33
64
18
Somewhat adjacent question for those of you much more in tune with things - Daugther and wife are supposed to head to DC for big 8th grade fielf trip tomorrow through Friday. How concerned should I be? Assume another lone wolf type incident is the greatest risk.

Thanks.
 
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HunterPKP

Heisman
Nov 11, 2004
139,264
42,029
98
Somewhat adjacent question for those of you much more in tune with things - Daugther and wife are supposed to head to DC for big 8th grade fielf trip tomorrow through Friday. How concerned should I be? Assume another lone wolf type incident is the greatest risk.

Thanks.

Be vigilant. This stuff is going to happen. I couldn't tell you where or when, but it's coming. Be vigilant. Always recognize exits in every single building you walk into. My SIL is a Federal Agent. Even before this, she will not sit down in a restaurant facing away from the entrance or path leading from the entrance. Pay close attention to this for a good few weeks in general.
 

PawsFan

Heisman
Dec 17, 2019
14,781
42,185
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Incredible longevity for that aircraft. It entered service my senior year of college and I am now 72. I know there have been some upgrades. It is still our fastest fighter plane.

It has to be a solid number two behind the B-52 for longevity.
KC-135 and C-5 and E-3 laugh at this. :^)
 
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PawsFan

Heisman
Dec 17, 2019
14,781
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Here's the rub and why the investigation of this matters a ton. The radar operators for those big Raytheon radars know the difference between a F15 and a drone or a cruise missile. Completely different signatures. I know this because my brother operated PAT systems for many years and was Brigade Commander of the 69th ADA. 1 is accidental. A cluster of 3 all at once is a bit suspect and should invoke very serious investigation.
An Unknown contact is an unknown contact. F-15 looks the same as a SU-35.