2/16: Just a taste of 2026 Bacatology
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Ohio State up 14 over Purdue is going to push into the field today if they hold on
Purdue starting to look like they will be trying to hold onto a 3 seed
Purdue starting to look like they will be trying to hold onto a 3 seed
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Think OSU and Indiana effectively trade places after both games today. Still feel that head-to-head game to finish the regular season will be one of (if not the biggest) deciding factor for both teams
I agree with the poster before who said one bid leagues need to make it harder for teams other than the regular season champ to win the tournament. Some of these teams are great all year and then one bad day ends it for them.
it will move them closer and give them 3 Q1 wins and bring them to 9-8 in Q3. Its just that other schools with better profiles and wins will have better chances to pick up quality wins as we go forward and in the conference tourneys. I suppose if EVERYTHING broke right for them but they are just 1-5 vs the field...a win over St Johns at home would be their best win of the year..their other notable win neutral site over 8/9 seed North Carolina State...their sor and wab are 53 and 55 right now. non conference sos of 288
yep...they each beat the same 3 teams actually...Purdue and Wisconsin at home and UCLA, Indiana actually has the better win since they beat UCLA on the road. Both have flimsy road marks. However OSU overall has better metrics, slightly better sor and wab and better sos and better in Q1/2 8-11 vs 5-12
I will say though you are right, that last game matters. Indiana absolutely needs that one and could gain an edge over the Buckeyes with a win. I dont think OSU is necessarily bounced out though by a loss.
Going to scrub tomorrow so not sure where Indiana sits right now, either last team in or last team out
i will note that USC even has they are flailing of late do have wins over bubbles Indiana and Seton Hall. Though 2-8 in Q1, their 7-1 mark in Q2 is strong so 9-10 vs Q1/2 isnt fairly solid, If they can win at Washington and knock off UCLA I wouldnt be surprised to see back into the field. Their sor and wab at 49/50 arent far off right now
You do a great job.
Couple questions.
Feels like three one seeds are locks and that Florida and UConn should be 1-2 in some order in the south. Do you agree?
Second, feels like that means if Houston and Iowa St are two seeds they have to be in the Michigan and Duke regions, since they can't be with Arizona. Do I have that right?
Last question, Nova is trending to an 8 seed. Feels like Michigan or Duke could be a 1 in Philadelphia- there is no way they would let Villanova play in Philly and basically host the 1 seed in round 2 right?
Baker-Mazara's availability (or lack there of) could come into play as well if they're right on the edge.
And glad that you're doing it again here!
I think it knocks them out and although they say conference affiliation don’t matter(I have a bridge to sell you) it could open door for Indiana who might be out right now.
thank you for reading
they were already fading out but this is the nail in the coffin..one its going to be hard for them to win both games without him since they were sputtering even with him and even if they did the committee will know full well that he is no longer on the team. Likely seals their fate
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thanks for reading
Yes 3 ones are locks...i would say uconn is very close to lock but yeah Florida has quickly moved to the top 2 seed and they are looking like 1/2 seeds in same region
the competiton for other 2s are Iowa State, Houston, Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska and Michigan State. Its likely 2 Big 12 schools and one Big 10 school at the end of the day
I believe they can meet in the elite 8
Key rules regarding conference matchups in the NCAA tournament (specifically Men's Basketball) include:
- Regional Separation: The top four teams from the same conference are placed in different regions when they are among the top four seed lines.
- Preventing Early Matchups: If teams from the same conference met twice during the season (including the conference tournament), they cannot meet before the Sweet 16.
- Extended Separation: If teams played three or more times, they are placed in separate regions and cannot meet until the Elite Eight.
- Exceptions: These principles may be relaxed or broken if a single conference has nine or more teams in the tournament, as it becomes mathematically impossible to separate them all.
- First-Round Avoidance: Teams from the same conference are generally not paired for the first round.
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Nova is allowed to play there but not sure if that is going to happen. I have them a 8 right now, they could move to 7. I would think they are going to have to be shipped out
If anything, I believe the NCAA would lean towards putting Villanova in Philly rather than trying to avoid it. The goal has always been to keep teams/fanbases closer to home unless there is a specific principal towards preventing it...and in this instance, there isn't. If they are an 8/9, I think their odds of starting in Philly are high.
I don't know. It seems extremely unfair to give a 7/8 seed a home game when that 1/2 seed earned their advantage.
I cant see a #1 seed having to play them there.
Could i see a 2 if they are 7..possibly but again those 1 and 2s will be placed closer to home and not the other way around
It's happened before, and the bracketing principles always have made it more likely to happen, not less (ie the goal is to keep teams closer to home, not send them further to make sure the higher seed gets an advantage...the only protection was for top 4 seeds in the first round only).
However, I'm questioning if the NCAA made a change this season (I haven't seen anything about it)...they slightly modified the wording in their Principles and Procedures.
In prior years, it's always said "To recognize the demonstrated quality of such teams, the committee shall not place teams seeded on the first four lines at a potential “home-crowd disadvantage” in the first round."
However, the 2025-2026 version says "Top-seeded teams (first four lines) will not be placed where they would face a significant home-crowd disadvantage."
I don't know if the omission of "in the first round" was intentional. I'm going to send something to Jerry Palm asking him about it.
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Selections
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Selections
www.ncaa.org
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: The top 16 overall seeds (1-4 in each region) are placed in the closest available sub-region and region to maximize fan attendance.
1st/2nd Round Advantage: The committee explicitly avoids placing top-four seeds in a position where they face a "home-crowd disadvantage" in the first round.
Top Overall Seed Privilege: The No. 1 overall seed often gets to choose their preferred site among the available locations.
Limitations: While 1 seeds generally get the closest spot, they are not guaranteed to be in their absolute top choice if it is unavailable.
1st/2nd Round Advantage: The committee explicitly avoids placing top-four seeds in a position where they face a "home-crowd disadvantage" in the first round.
Top Overall Seed Privilege: The No. 1 overall seed often gets to choose their preferred site among the available locations.
Limitations: While 1 seeds generally get the closest spot, they are not guaranteed to be in their absolute top choice if it is unavailable.
Why do you think that they "cannot" play there as an 8?
And yes, the 1's and 2's are placed closest to home...but as it comes time to slot the 8's, then historically, Villanova would be placed in Philly if it's available (and obviously not violating any other principles). As I mentioned though, I'm questioning if there was a tweak this year that wasn't really announced.
They cant play UConn there
Arizona isnt going there
Duke overall one isnt going there
Is Michigan coming away from St Louis or Buffalo so Villanova gets to play at home
Michigan was the one that I was thinking...I know it was mentioned previously that Michigan prefers to play in Philly if they are the overall #1. However, Buffalo is technically closer so they could easily send Michigan to Buffalo to avoid it.
Now Nova could easily be a 7 and perhaps be there but still unlikely if they keep to principles
Iowa St: Ok City/ St Louis
Houston: Ok City/San Diego/ Tampa
Illinois/Purdue/Nebby/Mich St: St Louis
Florida: Tampa
Iowa St: Ok City/ St Louis
Houston: Ok City/San Diego/ Tampa
Illinois/Purdue/Nebby/Mich St: St Louis
Florida: Tampa
Seems like Florida and Michigan could be on a collision course. Florida already has played Uconn, Duke, and Arizona. Iowa State and Houston can't be with Arizona, and Michigan can't be with the whatever Big Ten team gets a 2. Only hope for Michigan to avoid Florida might be to steal #1 seed back but the committee is free to do whatever it wants and can leave Duke at 1 even if they lose today
1. Duke
2. Michigan
3. Arizona
4. Uconn
5. Florida
6. Houston
7. Illinois/MSU/Nebraska
8. Iowa State
Duke vs Iowa State, Michigan vs Florida. Arizona vs Big Ten and Uconn vs Houston
1. Duke
2. Michigan
3. Arizona
4. Uconn
5. Florida
6. Houston
7. Illinois/MSU/Nebraska
8. Iowa State
Duke vs Iowa State, Michigan vs Florida. Arizona vs Big Ten and Uconn vs Houston