OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms

Knight Shift

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May 19, 2011
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See post 1057 above for my thoughts and brief model discussion. The GFS is the snowiest, by far, but the AIGFS has moderate snow and the Euro has snow for Philly/SNJ at 0Z last night and looked like it was poised to have snow for all at 6Z (but the run ended with significant snow on our doorstep), but the rest of the models are largely suppressed, so too early to call.

This should be a much easier forecast than the blizzard, as it's much more similar to 1/25, which reached pretty good consensus by days 3-4 and I'd expect the same for this one. The blizzard was a phased coastal and those are extremely volatile so hard to predict 3-4 days out, as we saw, whereas 1/25 and this event are more SWFEs (southwest flow events) where a storm is largely moving west to each along the baroclinic zone (sharp contrast in temps along the track with very warm temps to the south of the track and very cold temps to the north of it). Way less moving parts to forecast so I'd expect decent consensus by 3 days out at the latest, i.e., Friday morning-ish.
 
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RU848789

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doesnt look like it....do you have data to back up they have the best removal in the area, have they been given a major award
No, but ask anyone in Edison, Woodbridge, P'way, South Plainfield, NB, etc. I also drive around a lot after storms just to see that kind of thing, so the data are in my head. High taxes do provide some benefits.
 

RU848789

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Got at least an inch+ in P’way. Believe it or not roads were a mess, accidents, saw a school bus up on hill on 287 facing oncoming traffic(hope everybody ok). Took twice as long to get to work. Let’s start discussing Monday I’m supposed to be in Trenton as a witness for a federal trial.
The snow report is interesting, but c'mon, let's hear about the Federal trial. :>)
 

Sweet Pea's Corner

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Sep 10, 2001
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No, but ask anyone in Edison, Woodbridge, P'way, South Plainfield, NB, etc. I also drive around a lot after storms just to see that kind of thing, so the data are in my head. High taxes do provide some benefits.
Glorious sunshine here in Hillsborough. Obviously they don't do as good as a.job in Hillsborough/Belle Mead as roads are completely clear.as they were for that event last week where rumors.were floating as snow.covered at 7am. And stop driving around during snow events. You are creating a hazard for essential drivers, ie. Plows, EMTs Police and other essential.workers. Seems like you.didnt learn your lesson on the last big storm where u got stuck driving around with no purpose other than satisfying your snow fetish.
 
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Mikemarc

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The Thursday afternoon/evening system has trended a bit south, where it could be 1-2" of snow or a mix or mostly rain, S of 276/195 and maybe an inch of snow north of there to 78 - a complete miss is also about a 50% chance.

However, the Mon/Tues potential is real and before this past storm I wouldn't have been very interested in the fact that only the GFS is showing a major snowstorm, but since the GFS crushed the other models on this past storm, I'm interested, especially since the AIGFS and the Euro trended towards the snowy GFS solution to some extent. The other models (UK/CMC/AIFS) are showing a miss to our south. None of this variance is unusual for a system that's still 5+ days out. Nowhere near ready for a thread yet, IMO, but as for the last storm, I can't stop people from starting threads. (@Mikemarc)

Definitely not a thread worthy storm yet.

I started the thread last storm because yes, it was worthy at the time (5 of 5 major models hinting at potential).

agree though when only one model is showing a storm 5 plus days out - a thread isn’t needed.
 
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RU848789

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Today is likely the last brutally cold day of winter. Low 30s Monday. For that matter nothing in long range indicates daily highs in the 20s. Winter over? Not quite but we can see the end coming around the bend. Praise Jesus!
This post didn't age well, just like your post on AmericanWx on 2/11 where you said, "I HAVE SEEN ENOUGH. I AM DECLARING THIS WINTER OVER." Your anti-winter bias clouds your judgment sometimes, although not always (your posts in the blizzard thread were good, as I've said). Declaring winter over before we're even halfway through the snowiest month of the winter and still have the 3rd snowiest month of the winter after that is rarely going to work out well.
 

Knight Shift

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Simpsons Melting GIF
 
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RU848789

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Glorious sunshine here in Hillsborough. Obviously they don't do as good as a.job in Hillsborough/Belle Mead as roads are completely clear.as they were for that event last week where rumors.were floating as snow.covered at 7am. And stop driving around during snow events. You are creating a hazard for essential drivers, ie. Plows, EMTs Police and other essential.workers. Seems like you.didnt learn your lesson on the last big storm where u got stuck driving around with no purpose other than satisfying your snow fetish.
Roads were all well plowed here on Monday also as I said, but when 1.3" of snow falls that's not really enough to plow (most towns plow at >2") and at 28F before sunrise, all of that snow will accumulate or do you not understand that concept? That's why the road was snow covered in that pic not poor plowing.
 

Sweet Pea's Corner

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Roads were all well plowed here on Monday also as I said, but when 1.3" of snow falls that's not really enough to plow (most towns plow at >2") and at 28F before sunrise, all of that snow will accumulate or do you not understand that concept? That's why the road was snow covered in that pic not poor plowing.
Issue could be peeps driving around with no purpose matting the snow down which takes longer to melt. The roads should of had enough salt down to melt whatever was falling. It wasn't like 1 inch an hour event. I give the DPW and F in Metuchen.
 

RU848789

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The Thursday afternoon/evening system has trended a bit south, where it could be 1-2" of snow or a mix or mostly rain, S of 276/195 and maybe an inch of snow north of there to 78 - a complete miss is also about a 50% chance.

However, the Mon/Tues potential is real and before this past storm I wouldn't have been very interested in the fact that only the GFS is showing a major snowstorm, but since the GFS crushed the other models on this past storm, I'm interested, especially since the AIGFS and the Euro trended towards the snowy GFS solution to some extent. The other models (UK/CMC/AIFS) are showing a miss to our south. None of this variance is unusual for a system that's still 5+ days out. Nowhere near ready for a thread yet, IMO, but as for the last storm, I can't stop people from starting threads. (@Mikemarc)
Ok, things just got a lot more interesting at 12Z with the GFS and AIGFS both showing a moderate to significant snowstorm for most of the region with 3-6", although only 2-4" N of 78 (the GFS did back off the 8"+ outcome from the past few runs though), but the CMC now shows a 4-7" snowstorm for most (less towards the coast - mixing), and the Euro now shows 1-3" for most (more towards Philly). The Euro-AIFS and UK are both weaker and suppressed to our south.

All this means 5+ days out (some models start the event Monday afternoon and some as late as late Monday night) is that a moderate to significant snowstorm is possible, but it's also a decent chance that this will largely be a miss to our south (or a graze to southern/coastal sections). Would need to see better consensus to have high confidence in snow.

The Thursday afternoon/evening event is almost kaput with only the GFS showing a few inches south of 276/195.
 
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Loyal_2RU

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That's what 1.3" of snow looks like on top of a bit of slush leftover from Monday, because that street is next to the small park where all the kids sled and was filled with cars by 10 am Monday blocking the ability of the plows to finish the job that day.

Metuchen is widely regarded as having the best snow removal in the area - most roads were plowed by noon on Monday and were mostly blacktop by late afternoon and the busier roads (like ours) were plowed 3 times through the night/morning, so it was in great shape by 10 am. I was shoveling each time they came around before sunrise and being nice guys, they slowed down so the snow wouldn't completely cover where I had just shoveled.

Numbers, on common roads, eg new Durham, education roads always cleaner than Metuchen. Maybe Metuchen gets to more small roads...
 

bac2therac

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This post didn't age well, just like your post on AmericanWx on 2/11 where you said, "I HAVE SEEN ENOUGH. I AM DECLARING THIS WINTER OVER." Your anti-winter bias clouds your judgment sometimes, although not always (your posts in the blizzard thread were good, as I've said). Declaring winter over before we're even halfway through the snowiest month of the winter and still have the 3rd snowiest month of the winter after that is rarely going to work out well.
???? we have not had highs in the 20s ?
 

bac2therac

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Actually smart of them not to waste money and kill our roads with unecessary salting and brining given the expected temps.
well if it was that bad over there at rush hour then yes salt is needed whether its going to be fine and melt in 3 hours
 

bac2therac

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This post didn't age well, just like your post on AmericanWx on 2/11 where you said, "I HAVE SEEN ENOUGH. I AM DECLARING THIS WINTER OVER." Your anti-winter bias clouds your judgment sometimes, although not always (your posts in the blizzard thread were good, as I've said). Declaring winter over before we're even halfway through the snowiest month of the winter and still have the 3rd snowiest month of the winter after that is rarely going to work out well.
why are you cross posting..maybe i should bring up your declarations from 2016, 2020, 2021 from another board before you ran and hid
 

RU848789

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Numbers, on common roads, eg new Durham, education roads always cleaner than Metuchen. Maybe Metuchen gets to more small roads...
I assume "education" is some odd autocorrect, but in my experience the common roads are done about the same in Metuchen vs Edison (although after 1/25, 27 in south Edison was a mess for a week but was well cleared in Metuchen), but the local roads are usually done better in Metuchen as there are simply more workers per mile of road as told to me by the Mayor (a good friend) a couple of years ago. AI agrees, so it must be true, lol.

Based on regional characteristics, Metuchen (a small borough) often provides more consistent, rapid, and personalized snow removal on its roads and downtown area compared to the much larger, sprawling township of Edison, which can face delays in clearing residential side streets due to its size.
  • Metuchen: Being a compact, 2.8-square-mile borough allows for faster, more centralized snow removal efforts, particularly in the downtown business district and surrounding residential streets.
  • Edison: A much larger township (roughly 30 square miles), Edison has a vast network of roads, meaning residential, non-main roads may take longer to clear compared to a smaller town.
 

RU848789

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???? we have not had highs in the 20s ?
Please. "Winter over" in both posts, including in all caps on AmericanWx, means no more snow, not whether it'll be cold or not. The vast majority on that board and this one are interested in snow. It was a bad take - own it. And as an aside, you were at least implying it turning warmer than normal, but from 2/9 through now it has averaged almost 2F below normal in NB, so maybe not brutal but not the warmth you implied.
 

bac2therac

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Please. "Winter over" in both posts, including in all caps on AmericanWx, means no more snow, not whether it'll be cold or not. The vast majority on that board and this one are interested in snow. It was a bad take - own it. And as an aside, you were at least implying it turning warmer than normal, but from 2/9 through now it has averaged almost 2F below normal in NB, so maybe not brutal but not the warmth you implied.
Interested in snow? Im guessing the vast majority here dont like snow and cold
 

RU848789

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Interested in snow? Im guessing the vast majority here dont like snow and cold
It's always been pretty obvious that people are far more interested in either getting snow or not getting snow with the vast majority of weather board posters loving snow and most normies not wanting snow at all. Temperatures don't energize most people.
 

RU848789

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Quibbling about an inch always brings out the crazy
So why did you start quibbling without having complete data, causing a ruckus? Tons of reports in the 1.0-1.2" range in CNJ by the NWS and a bunch in the 1.2-1.5" range on-line, which don't always make it to the NWS. On top of that many reports over my 1.3" amount to my N/E in NENJ and NYC.
 

bac2therac

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So why did you start quibbling without having complete data, causing a ruckus? Tons of reports in the 1.0-1.2" range in CNJ by the NWS and a bunch in the 1.2-1.5" range on-line, which don't always make it to the NWS. On top of that many reports over my 1.3" amount to my N/E in NENJ and NYC.
Below an inch in parts closer to half inch
 

BigEastPhil

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Poor Mr G.

He was sniffing like crazy on the telecast tonight but he also craved attention for the Sunday / Monday event.

2nd sniffer I encountered today !

Had DR appointment today and Nurse in training was a massive sniffer. Sort of freaked me out. Lol.

She averaged about a massive sniff every few seconds or so ! Ugh !
 

Sweet Pea's Corner

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Poor Mr G.

He was sniffing like crazy on the telecast tonight but he also craved attention for the Sunday / Monday event.

2nd sniffer I encountered today !

Had DR appointment today and Nurse in training was a massive sniffer. Sort of freaked me out. Lol.

She averaged about a massive sniff every few seconds or so ! Ugh !
Obviously she needs more training.