OT: Weekend snowstorm - historic blizzzard
- Thread starter Mikemarc
- Start date
18z Reggie is 9-12 inches...continues to be of the least snowiest models
Kudos to you for pointing this out, at least twice, probably more.
Yeah, but 95 runs north and south. What is North of 95 and South of 95?
18 GFS is 14-22 inches..22-26 at coast
Seems a little less raging than its other runs all things considered
Seems a little less raging than its other runs all things considered
It does seem a little strange to get the type of snow projections out there without some very cold air around. A very cold air mass often helps the developing low to intensify and also contributes to higher snow ratios from the available precipitation. The NWS are the experts and they analyze a lot of data not just the models, so I guess they see something with this particular setup. We shall see what happens.
Its generally a diagonal line so its nw and se if you want to be an *** about it
My local NWS forecast, which is almost always wrong, for Allenwood says:
Sunday:
New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Sunday Night:
New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible.
Monday:
New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
That's a total 0f 19-30 inches.
Sunday:
New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Sunday Night:
New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible.
Monday:
New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
That's a total 0f 19-30 inches.
If it was cold in this case the storm would get suppressed to the coast and offshore
This storm is going to be so dynamic and tuck in and stall. The precip rates will be very high with temps around 30
I'm not the only who questioned it, ya putz.
So Southeast would be more accurate.
Because one would be Southwest of 95 and be in Princeton, Somerset, etc.
Calm down.
NWS-Philly/NYC finally updated their snow maps to include the increased snowfalls mentioned in all of the warnings in the quoted post. Forecast basically went from 8-12" NW of 95 and 12-16" for 95 and 16-20" at the coast to 12-15" NW, 15-20" across 95 and 20-24" towards the coast, so about a 4" increase across the board. Wow. That's a snowstorm. I see why they bumped it up with the meso/hi-res models, which show banding and mesoscale features better, having high end amounts, but there are still many models showing what this morning's forecasts amounts were, so there's some bust potential on the low side. At the same time, though, if some of the bomb models are right and ratios are good, even this forecast could bust a bit low in spots. Crazy to think that is possible given where we were 3-4 days ago wondering whether we'd even have a storm. NWS has me getting 20" in my graphic below. I'm going to go with 18.7" for my house, as I think the storm may underperform their forecast slightly.
As a refresher, precip starts maybe around noon, lightly, as snow N of 78 and rain S of 78 (or maybe just S of 276/195), but either way with temps above 32F almost everywhere, accumulations on paved surfaces will likely be minimal until at least 2-3 pm with light rates and the indirect sunlight (see the hourly graphic for Metuchen, below, to get an idea of conditions, which will be similar in most places). Will likely take until 4-5 pm for accumulations to start going along/SE of 95, but we're not "losing" much precip during daylight hours (maybe 1-2" worth of snow). After that everything will be changing to snow and it'll get much heavier by sunset with temps down to 32F for most and then through the night and even until about noon Monday. The high winds and possible blizzard conditions kick in late Sunday night and last through the end of the storm; those winds and the heavy snow will lead to at least scattered power outages (hopefully the wind keeps most of the snow from accumulating on trees). There will also be moderate to locally major coastal flooding. About to head out for the night so play nicely.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62604-the-allsnow-blizzard-of-2026/page/144/#comment-8029922
https://www.weather.gov/phi
A nice 32 mile ride like it was spring time! From my house in Montgomery County, Belmont Hills to Battleship New Jersey and some stops on the way home. Can't believe the storm is going to ruin the rest of February.Sun's out, 50 degrees. Out for a bike ride. Nothing looks like there will be a huge storm in just over 24 hours. Temps through the entire storm in Philly will not get below 30 degrees, mostly holding at 32. Lots of crazy stuff.
Get out and enjoy the day! It will be good for your back while you're shoveling late tomorrow and all day Monday!
Back on the bike!
If accurate, looks like taking a first pass around 10-11 p.m. to clear driveway is good move?
Finally, a reasonable explanation of the infamous I-95 corridor! Forgive Bac, he’s a little keyed up tonight - sort of like when he doesn’t sleep or shower during the days and nights before Selection Sunday.I'm not the only who questioned it, ya putz.
So Southeast would be more accurate.
Because one would be Southwest of 95 and be in Princeton, Somerset, etc.
Calm down.
I went for 4-5 mile walk / run today after bb debacle.
Such a beautiful day!
And then tomorrow!
Such a beautiful day!
And then tomorrow!
Many years ago, after Great Adventure was built in Jackson, the only way to get from "the Shore" to Great Adventure was Route 70. When I-195 was built, locals often referred to it as "I-95" for some reason. IDK if the NJ Turnpike was known within NJ as I-95, but hearing north/south of I-95 was a head scratcher. That's why Southeast makes more sense, but seems North/South is used a lot.Finally, a reasonable explanation of the infamous I-95 corridor! Forgive Bac, he’s a little keyed up tonight - sort of like when he doesn’t sleep or shower during the days and nights before Selection Sunday.
Same here - many times that has been the kiss of death for accumulating snow but, this time, it feels like it’s a good idea
I guess I should cancel my tee time for Monday?
oh yes lots of weenie maps being posted with obscure numbers.
But don’t think this can be Juno 2 because pro Mets aren’t forecasting these numbers. Pro Mets have been fairly conservative I think and this has more of a chance of busting higher than forecasted in my opinion
Just use orange or yellow balls, you'll be fine. I don't think the heavy stuff is going to come down for quite a while.
Won't be many blue balls for those locked inside because of all the snow. . . .at least for some people.
Lee Goldberg is basically 12-18 for entire area woth spots up to 24
Still trying to figure out a plan for this storm's removal. The last plan was a complete disaster and I swear if I was in charge, I would have lost us WW II.
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Same here. Clearing off the driveway at midnight to allow a small layer of storm to be coated with a thick layer of ice was a genius move. Square garden shovel was the only thing that could pry up sheets/chunks of ice.
I just saw Jeff Smith with that channel 7 forecast…12-18+ for all of NJ) which he said could be conservative
) and locally 24 in some areas if you get one of those 2-3 inch/hour bands hang over you for awhile.
I think you said you had a blower. Personally, with a blower I tend to try to only go out once and try to wait to the point where I think the plows are done and finished blocking the driveway.
For accumulations in the high teens maybe twice for the driveway but I won’t unblock the driveway until it’s all over. Storms like this leave those massive wet snow mountains from the plows and I don’t have any inclination to deal with that twice. If it’s more compact at the end of the driveway, I’ll use the metal snow shovel or garden spade to break it down sections at a time and then let the blower throw it off.
I always spray some lubricant on the chute, augur impeller before going out and it’s especially important for wet heavy snow. Even then I’ve gotten clogs at times but it’s better than nothing.
If I was doing it manually, then yea I’d go out multiple times. I sometimes do that for the steps and such where the blower can’t reach.
I need to get out for fire calls- volunteer firefighter.
There will be a standby crew at the station too, but I like to make sure the driveway is clear at end in case more manpower is needed.
18z Euro was 10-14 across the area. One of the least snowiest model solutions
DT's mind is gone. He is way to political now. I followed him for weather. Plus he banned me on one of his X for saying the eagles get all the calls after a game that they did.
Sorry didn't want to go through the whole thread but what time will this begin to stick in Hunterdon county?